Election 2015

[Altair]

>would the electorate not run over to the NDP at the detriment of the LPC if the latter were just seen as the CPC lite?

The Liberals have always been centrist, not leftist.  "CPC lite" is what they are; or, if you prefer, the CPC is "LPC hi-test".  Why would the LPC try to be more like the NDP and compete on the NDP's long-established turf?  People who want NDP-like government will choose the NDP - real socialists rather than imitation ones.

NDP supporters would exert a great deal of energy to portray a LPC opposition supporting a CPC minority as lap dogs, or any other collection of servile-flavoured nouns and adjectives which come to mind.  But that would just be the politics of bitter frustration and defeat.  I suspect the Canadian concensus right now is "CPC minority held in check by LPC" or "LPC minority held in check by CPC" - in short, fiscally prudent government of the center exercising more classically liberal principles in search of the balance among justice, security, and liberty.  If so, Canadians would not object to the party holding the leash going along with the governing party while bending the trajectory of the government.

The NDP is basically a big tent of rent-seekers held together in search of power by an understanding that each sub-faction will receive its rice bowl at the expense of those outside the tent if the quest is successful.  Most Canadians are willing to work for their own rice bowls rather than lobby for one, and aren't particularly supportive of the rent-seekers.  As long as the NDP can plausibly conceal its true nature and muzzle its leftmost wing it is electable; otherwise, it is not.

Of course the risk lies in campaigning for change and supporting the old.

I personally hated the liberals for supporting the conservatives minority goverment of the late 2000s, hated them abstaining from votes so the goverment wouldn't fall, holding their noses and voting with the conservatives. I hated that so much I stayed home in 2011.

Canadians must have hated that as well, because they were dumped into third place and the LPC vote split apart.

The conservatives weren't exactly grateful for the LPC support either, all but destroying ignatief.

Looking at most LPC and NDP supporters, the LPC second choice is the NDP and the NDP second choice is the LPC. I believe that's the way Canadians want to go, a NDP or LPC minority propped up by a NDP or LPC third or second party. Don't see many LPC supporters wanting trudeau propping up harper.

So I hope for their sake that they don't go down that road or I'll hold my nose and vote NDP. I'm not voting liberal because I want a CPC minority propped up by the LPC. I'm voting LPC because I want the CPC gone. If the LPC can't do that, I'll vote NDP.

 

[Privateer]

Is Mr. Mulcair trying to take out the LPC and then morph the NDP into a new LPC?  I get the impression that he would be equally happy being leader of the LPC if he could somehow force NDPers into that tent and then shut down the NDP.  The NDP leadership seems more of an available stepping stone for his personal ambition than an ideological choice on his part.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Back to my bell curve analog ...

                                 

                                        Hard left                        Left                              Moderate, mushy middle                          Right                    Hard right
Traditional,  until 2003:    Communists                NDP                                Liberals                            Conservatives          Reform
New model, after 2003:    Communists                                                    NDP  Liberals                              Conservatives

                                                            <========================= NDP =========================>
Latest model, in 2015:      Communists                <=============== Liberals ==========================>
                                                                                            <======================= Conservatives ==========================>

The problem for the Liberals is that both the NDP, from the left, and the CPC, from the right, have moved into the "mushy middle" ground which was, traditionally, the LPC's base. They've been outflanked ... on both flanks!

 

[dapaterson]

The problem for the Liberals is that both the NDP, from the left, and the CPC, from the right, have moved into the "mushy middle" ground which was, traditionally, the LPC's base. They've been outflanked ... on both flanks!

So, sort of like a pimple getting squished?

 

[Edward Campbell]

Is Mr. Mulcair trying to take out the LPC and then morph the NDP into a new LPC?  I get the impression that he would be equally happy being leader of the LPC if he could somehow force NDPers into that tent and then shut down the NDP.  The NDP leadership seems more of an available stepping stone for his personal ambition than an ideological choice on his part.

You are looking, maybe, at new four party system:

A true left wing party, made up of the Dippers who cannot tolerate Jack Layton's and Thomas Mulcairs' shift to the centre;
              A new centre-left party, led by M Mulcair, made up of many of the Dippers and most Liberals;
                A new centre-right party, led by prime Minister Harper's successor and made up of most Conservatives and some Blue (Manley) Liberals; and
                                A new right wing party made up of disaffeceted Conservatives for whom the new centre right party is too socially and fiscally liberal.

 

[Altair]

Back to my bell curve analog ...

                                 

                                        Hard left                        Left                              Moderate, mushy middle                          Right                    Hard right
Traditional,  until 2003:    Communists                NDP                                Liberals                            Conservatives          Reform
New model, after 2003:    Communists                                                    NDP  Liberals                              Conservatives

                                                            <========================= NDP =========================>
Latest model, in 2015:      Communists                <=============== Liberals ==========================>
                                                                                            <======================= Conservatives ==========================>

The problem for the Liberals is that both the NDP, from the left, and the CPC, from the right, have moved into the "mushy middle" ground which was, traditionally, the LPC's base. They've been outflanked ... on both flanks!

Probably why we are seeing trudeau campaigning from the NDP left at this point.

Running deficits while the NDP promises to balance the budget

Talking about austerity while the NDP talks about fiscal prudence.

Wynne was able to do it in Ontario,  campaigning hard on the left while trying to discredit the right.

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

You are looking, maybe, at new four party system:

A true left wing party, made up of the Dippers who cannot tolerate Jack Layton's and Thomas Mulcairs' shift to the centre;
              A new centre-left party, led by M Mulcair, made up of many of the Dippers and most Liberals;
                A new centre-right party, led by prime Minister Harper's successor and made up of most Conservatives and some Blue (Manley) Liberals; and
                                A new right wing party made up of disaffeceted Conservatives for whom the new centre right party is too socially and fiscally liberal.

Lets see here for fun:

You could name those parties as follows:

The true left-wing party: The Socialist Party of Canada
The left-of-center party: The Liberal-Democrats Party of Canada
The right-of-centre party: The Progressive-Conservative Party of Canada
and the true right-wing party: REFOOOOOORM!!! (dixit the Royal Canadian Air Farce  );

 

[Altair]

It's very odd to see. The NDP moving to the center, the liberals moving to the left. The NDP sheds some of its votes on the left while picking up in the center, the LPC responds by picking up those ndp leftists while shedding their voters in the center.

Might end up with a complete ideological flip if this continues.

Probably why we see the tie that we do now.

 

[Jed]

'It's all about that Base, 'bout that Base, No quibbles'

 

[Edward Campbell]

Lets see here for fun:

You could name those parties as follows:

The true left-wing party: The Socialist Party of Canada
The left-of-center party: The Liberal-Democrats Party of Canada
The right-of-centre party: The Progressive-Conservative Party of Canada
and the true right-wing party: REFOOOOOORM!!! (dixit the Royal Canadian Air Farce  );

:bravo: And my guess is that the Socialists and Reform each have a solid base of about 10% of the electorate, about the same as the BQ, give 5% to the Greens and that means that, election after election, the Lib Dems and the PCs split the remaining 65%, but, because we have been smart enough to retain a simple, first past the post system ~ not some sort of silly arsed PR system ~ they alternate power every couple of elections, thus providing us with generations of generally acceptable, centrist, efficient majority governments with public policy oscillating (not too far) around the mushy middle.

 

[Altair]

:bravo: And my guess is that the Socialists and Reform each have a solid base of about 10% of the electorate, about the same as the BQ, give 5% to the Greens and that means that, election after election, the Lib Dems and the PCs split the remaining 65%, but, because we have been smart enough to retain a simple, first past the post system ~ not some sort of silly arsed PR system ~ they alternate power every couple of elections, thus providing us with generations of generally acceptable, centrist, efficient majority governments with public policy oscillating (not too far) around the mushy middle.

I still doubt that.

If the current voting intentions stay the same we might go straight back to the polls and the protest vote solidifies around one of the LPC or NDP.

We are far more likely to see CPC in power, one of the LPC or NDP in power followed by the CPC again. I bet this is a more sensible way forward.

Unless the NDP are too broke to go back to the polls that is.

 

[Bird_Gunner45]

Probably why we are seeing trudeau campaigning from the NDP left at this point.

Running deficits while the NDP promises to balance the budget

Talking about austerity while the NDP talks about fiscal prudence.

Wynne was able to do it in Ontario,  campaigning hard on the left while trying to discredit the right.

Wynne may also be the worst premiere in Ontario's history and is wracking up unbelievable debt while still somehow managing to transition Ontario into a have not province. If this is what Trudeau is going to do than lord help all of us

 

[Altair]

Wynne may also be the worst premiere in Ontario's history and is wracking up unbelievable debt while still somehow managing to transition Ontario into a have not province. If this is what Trudeau is going to do than lord help all of us

Campaign strategy =/= how one governs?

Liberals usually campaign on the left and govern on the right.

 

[Bird_Gunner45]

Campaign strategy =/= how one governs?

Liberals usually campaign on the left and govern on the right.

With Mr. Trudeau I dont necessarily believe that he will do that. I think he is the classic "silk stocking liberal". He talks about the middle class but hasn't seen a day of it in his life and can't even define what "middle class" is. It doesn't fill me with confidence that he truly gets what I, as a middle class citizen, really need (or else why would he be so quick to get rid of income splitting? It helps me greatly as a middle class person).

Dont get me wrong- I dont want the leader of the government to be a Sarah Palin type, "shucks" type. But that's where my issue with Mr. Trudeau is- he has led a privileged life amongst the top 1% of Canadians (likely close to the top .1% really). What I want is a leader who knows who they are and dont try to BS the country about their understanding of our challenges... it comes off being condescending

 

[Altair]

With Mr. Trudeau I dont necessarily believe that he will do that. I think he is the classic "silk stocking liberal". He talks about the middle class but hasn't seen a day of it in his life and can't even define what "middle class" is. It doesn't fill me with confidence that he truly gets what I, as a middle class citizen, really need (or else why would he be so quick to get rid of income splitting? It helps me greatly as a middle class person).

Dont get me wrong- I dont want the leader of the government to be a Sarah Palin type, "shucks" type. But that's where my issue with Mr. Trudeau is- he has led a privileged life amongst the top 1% of Canadians (likely close to the top .1% really). What I want is a leader who knows who they are and dont try to BS the country about their understanding of our challenges... it comes off being condescending

Seems odd to have an issue with something someone had no control over.

I don't think baby justin trudeau had a choice of what tax bracket he was born in.

 

[Good2Golf]

Is Mr. Mulcair trying to take out the LPC and then morph the NDP into a new LPC?  I get the impression that he would be equally happy being leader of the LPC if he could somehow force NDPers into that tent and then shut down the NDP.  The NDP leadership seems more of an available stepping stone for his personal ambition than an ideological choice on his part.

Hmmm....now where has that happened before?

Seems odd to have an issue with something someone had no control over.

I don't think baby justin trudeau had a choice of what tax bracket he was born in.

That doesn't mean his jacketless, sleeves-rolled-up traipse up the hill with the Parliamentary Library in the background vowing his readiness makes him "one of us" or be able to get what it means being middle class.  A middle class family that didn't have the luxury of two professional incomes would very much appreciate the income splitting tax benefit when the time comes to spend some more time with the children and grand-children.  Trudeau wants to take that away from us.  It doesn't resonate with him because he has no comprehension of the concept...

 

[Altair]

Hmmm....now where has that happened before?

That doesn't mean his jacketless, sleeves-rolled-up traipse up the hill with the Parliamentary Library in the background vowing his readiness makes him "one of us" or be able to get what it means being middle class.  A middle class family that didn't have the luxury of two professional incomes would very much appreciate the income splitting tax benefit when the time comes to spend some more time with the children and grand-children.  Trudeau wants to take that away from us.  It doesn't resonate with him because he has no comprehension of the concept...

Think what you wish, but Tom mulcair is even more middle class than Stephen Harper and he want to get rid of income splitting as well. So did the late Flaherty.

So background has nothing to do with policy or empathy IMHO. Just my  :2c:

 

[Edward Campbell]

Seems odd to have an issue with something someone had no control over.

I don't think baby justin trudeau had a choice of what tax bracket he was born in.

I don't believe anyone is blaming M Trudeau for an accident of birth. Some are questioning what he did with the good fortune into which he was born. A list of his achievements is pretty short and very unimpressive. He is, I am sure, a very nice young man. I wonder if he is ready and "qualified" (however one wants to measure that) to lead a G7 nation.

 

[Good2Golf]

Think what you wish, but Tom mulcair is even more middle class than Stephen Harper...

Mulcair, multi-degreed lawyer from McGill's elite and a long family lineage to early Quebec premiership (and his psychologist wife) is "more" middle class than Harper (an accountant's son and economist, with a college-diplomed rancher's daughter for a wife)?  Remind me again, how are you judging "middle-class?"

 

[PuckChaser]

Mulcair, multi-degreed lawyer from McGill's elite and a long family lineage to early Quebec premiership (and his psychologist wife) is "more" middle class than Harper (an accountant's son and economist, with a college-diplomed rancher's daughter for a wife)?  So how are you judging "middle-class" again?

Same way Trudeau does, by not having any idea at what middle class actually is.