Election 2015

[Altair]

I think you're finding that the electorate (especially Blue Liberals) are having the same issues, hence why they're not polling as well as they thought they would at this point.

I think the liberal poll numbers are great considering how many thought that

A) They were dead after 2011

B) The conservatives would squeeze them on the right and the NDP would squeeze them on the left leaving them with a ever shrinking middle

C) That the conservatives ad bombardment would decimate the liberal leader like it did to the two leaders previous.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Now, I don't know if it is complaints from the grassroots ...

...
... the article goes on to state that: "While there has been a considerable drop in the forecast for 2015, the consensus projection for economic growth in 2016 is still roughly in line with the assumptions in the budget."

It seems to me that this is a golden opportunity for the CPC to "change the channel" (away from the Duffy scandal and the PM's 'integrity') back to "safe" ground: the economy and Canadian's fear for their own financial security.

I think that the campaign should say ...

                                                       

And it should ask Canadians who they want "at the helm" in a storm?

                           

I believe the campaign can (and should) make the case that the economic headwinds are global: think Eurozone and China and Canada is being "sideswiped" by "events" rather then being damaged by government policy. The campaign can (and should) say that Prime Minister Harper/the CPC plans to stimulate the economy with some good, solid, useful (job saving) infrastructure "investment" but, unlike M Trudeau, will not run the budget into the red. Canadians may not like Stephen Harper but they can be persuaded that he is the better choice, amongst the three, for difficult times.

          ... or if it the impact of the Wizard of Oz ...

According to an article in Maclean's magazine Prime Minister Harper's campaign has called on Mr Crobsy, the Wizard of Oz, to back up Jenni Byrne (see my comments on trouble in the CPC campaign, made earlier today).

              ... whatever it is, the Conservatives have a new video ad that is, I think, on the right track for (most of) this phase of the campaign.

 

[Edward Campbell]

But, there is one more opportunity to attack M Trudeau and, maybe indirectly, M Mulcair, too: the foreign policy debate hosted by the Munk Centre is in danger because, in my opinion, "Team Trudeau" is afraid to put M Trudeau up against Prime Minister Harper and M Mulcair in an unscripted debate, because he's "Just Not Ready."

Further, as an aside, M Mulcair would like to focus on anything but foreign policy because it's not a strong suit for the NDP, he's afraid, of stirring up the NDP's loony left base.

 

[Edward Campbell]

...

              ... the Conservatives have a new video ad that is, I think, on the right track for (most of) this phase of the campaign.

David Akin has collected all the new CPC ads here and they all seem to me to be on the right track: generally, but not totally, positive and focused, as they should be, on the economic/fiscal/pocketbook issues that matter most to Canadians.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

I like the way this last one focused on the past record and future strategies. I could be wrong, most likely, but it's the first one I've seen that doesn't really attack the others. That should play well to those that are just starting to pay attention.

 

[observor 69]

Éric Grenier ‏@308dotcom 

More agreement in today's polls:

Innovative: 31% NDP, 30% LPC, 28% CPC
Abacus: 31% NDP, 29% LPC, 29% CPC
Nanos: 31% NDP, 30% LPC, 30% CPC





 

 

[Edward Campbell]

Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from Abacus Data, are two charts which, assuming they are accurate, are bad news for the CPC:

The mood of the country continued to deteriorate and the desire for change grew since our last wave of surveying. Today, just 32% say the country is
heading in the right direction, a drop of 18 points since last December and the lowest we have measured since we began tracking this item in March
2014. This is the first time since that tracking began that more people say the country is on the “wrong track” than say it is heading in the right direction

The desire for change in Ottawa has also hit a new high, with 61% saying they “definitely think it’s time for a change”, up from 50% in April of
this year. Another 15% are inclined to want change meaning a total of 76% of voters would prefer to see a different party take office at the conclusion
of this election. Only 17% are sure that they want the Conservatives to remain in power, with another 7% inclined to want this outcome.

See more at: http://abacusdata.ca/desire-for-change-intensifies-2015election-canada/#sthash.N5CO0MIr.dpuf

 

[Remius]

This will likely be a good news week for the CPC unless something knocks them off message yet again.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/fiscal-year-ottawa-surplus-1.3226969

although I'm sure some are hoping that the Carson trial might derail teh CPC this week, I doubt that it will.  it is far enough removed from the CPC, and most people don't even know what it is about to care much.  I'm sure the opposition will tie it to Stephen Harper's judgement but I think the damage will be negligeable. 

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Polls.

Pretty tight right now.

However, the vocals (NDP, Liberals) are always very vocal when it comes to polls.

CPC supporters? Not so much. They show their opinions on voting day.

All this to say, I believe that the CPC support is higher than reported.

Just my  :2c:

 

[Edward Campbell]

I admire Thomas Mulcair. I think he is a good politician: smart, enthusiastic, well attuned to what Canadians want.

I've also said that I like my local NDP MP, Paul Dewar, and I will not be surprised or sad when he is re-elected.

Why, then, can I not vote NDP?

Here, from an article in the Globe and Mail is the answer:

    "Thomas Mulcair’s deliberate move to the centre of the policy spectrum has disillusioned some long-time, left-leaning elements within his party. But the prospect of an NDP government in Ottawa – one that will represent the voice of the
      Canadian labour movement – is preventing dissenters from abandoning ship ... The members of the socialist caucus are circulating a petition praising Mr. Mulcair for his efforts to bring in a national minimum wage and a national
      childcare plan, but demanding that much more from the traditional NDP playbook be incorporated into the party platform. They want national pharmacare, a ban on pipeline creation, more “progressive taxation” and solidarity with
      Palestinians over Israel."

Despite my admiration for the NDP's leader and for a few of its members, the NDP base, including some of the caucus, scares me ... they are economic barbarians and social radicals with firm, "party line" views that are dangerous for Canada and Canadians here at home and for our place in the world.

I believe that M Mulcair can control his left wing if he wins only a small minority and if the Liberals do not elect many of their "loony lefties," but if there is an NDP Majority or an NDP minority supports by a strong Liberal-Left caucus then I think we're in trouble. There are too many ifs when one considers the NDP ...


Edit: capitalization   :-[

 

[Brad Sallows]

Comments on the CBC article about the 2014-15 balance are a treat, but I'll reserve my nose-thumbing until the numbers are formally included in the Fiscal Reference Tables (which should be shortly).

And I, too, doubt Mulcair can push off the preferences of his extreme supporters the same way Harper declined to engage issues important to social conservatives.

 

[observor 69]

Very well written article on how minority election results could evolve:

When the votes are in, ball may be in the Governor-General’s court

The concept of strategic voting becomes more important in this election campaign as emotions rise and polarization grows. Increasingly, the question is whether you are for or against Conservative Leader Stephen Harper. Refugees, recession, perceived general nastiness – feelings are running high.

From Conservatives, you hear, “We have enough votes if the others split theirs.” From the others, “How best to get rid of him?” Go Liberal or New Democrat? Justin Trudeau or Thomas Mulcair?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/when-the-votes-are-in-ball-may-be-in-the-governor-generals-court/article26341743/

 

[Edward Campbell]

Very well written article on how minority election results could evolve:

When the votes are in, ball may be in the Governor-General’s court

The concept of strategic voting becomes more important in this election campaign as emotions rise and polarization grows. Increasingly, the question is whether you are for or against Conservative Leader Stephen Harper. Refugees, recession, perceived general nastiness – feelings are running high.

From Conservatives, you hear, “We have enough votes if the others split theirs.” From the others, “How best to get rid of him?” Go Liberal or New Democrat? Justin Trudeau or Thomas Mulcair?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/when-the-votes-are-in-ball-may-be-in-the-governor-generals-court/article26341743/

And Mr Gibson, a long time Liberal insider, makes this key point, from the Liberal perspective:

    "... a Mulcair administration, conferring national governmental stature on the NDP, is the one thing the Liberal Party cannot have; it would threaten the party’s continuing existence. So the Liberals would support neither the NDP
      nor the Conservatives, but would not kill the Conservative government right away. From Mr. Trudeau would come something like, “The Governor-General has given Mr. Harper a chance to meet the House, the people don’t
      want another election and we will listen. He’d better not do X or Y and he’d better do Z, but given that, we’ll wait and see.”

That's the Liberal dilemma and that's why I continue to insist that if M Trudeau's Liberals cannot, themselves, win power, they must not finish behind the NDP. The Liberal Party of Canada has no principles at all save for gaining and holding power. If the NDP gain power then that party may, forever, reshape Canadian politics: splitting the electorate with the CPC and shutting the Liberals out, forever. M Trudeau cannot, for long, support an NDP government but he may, for much longer, backup a Conservative one. He doesn't care that Canadian might hate Stephen Harper; they, we, you are not part of his power calculus.

 

[Altair]

And Mr Gibson, a long time Liberal insider, makes this key point, from the Liberal perspective:

    "... a Mulcair administration, conferring national governmental stature on the NDP, is the one thing the Liberal Party cannot have; it would threaten the party’s continuing existence. So the Liberals would support neither the NDP
      nor the Conservatives, but would not kill the Conservative government right away. From Mr. Trudeau would come something like, “The Governor-General has given Mr. Harper a chance to meet the House, the people don’t
      want another election and we will listen. He’d better not do X or Y and he’d better do Z, but given that, we’ll wait and see.”

That's the Liberal dilemma and that's why I continue to insist that if M Trudeau's Liberals cannot, themselves, win power, they must not finish behind the NDP. The Liberal Party of Canada has no principles at all save for gaining and holding power. If the NDP gain power then that party may, forever, reshape Canadian politics: splitting the electorate with the CPC and shutting the Liberals out, forever. M Trudeau cannot, for long, support an NDP government but he may, for much longer, backup a Conservative one. He doesn't care that Canadian might hate Stephen Harper; they, we, you are not part of his power calculus.

I respectfully disagree.

Justin trudeau and the liberals cannot be seen to be propping up a harper lead conservative goverment. It would be political suicide. The NDP would have itself a field day.

As it stands right now voters want change but are spilt on what kind of change they want and who is best to deliver it. The NDP and LPC voters each have each other as their second choice. The protest vote has yet to solidify around a single party or leader.

This will change if any of the two parties are seen as propping up the conservatives, especially the liberal party.

If the liberals prop up the CPC by the time the next election rolls around the Harper/CPC fatigue will be at a all time high, the electorate will most definitely be clamoring for change and the NDP will rightly be able to paint the liberals as the ones who stood in the way of change.

There is absolutely nothing for the liberals to gain in supporting the CPC. Unless someone can point out something I'm missing where there is something about the LPC supporting the CPC that will help their electoral chances.

 

[Rocky Mountains]

Wrong - once an NDP government is in power handing out candies to the kiddies at no apparent cost, the Liberal Party collapses.  In the meantime the Conservatives bring in a new electable leader and the Liberals would be wise to do the same.  Trudeau simply can't let the NDP have a kick at the can.

 

[Edward Campbell]

I respectfully disagree.

Justin trudeau and the liberals cannot be seen to be propping up a harper lead conservative goverment. It would be political suicide. The NDP would have itself a field day.

As it stands right now voters want change but are spilt on what kind of change they want and who is best to deliver it. The NDP and LPC voters each have each other as their second choice. The protest vote has yet to solidify around a single party or leader.

This will change if any of the two parties are seen as propping up the conservatives, especially the liberal party.

If the liberals prop up the CPC by the time the next election rolls around the Harper/CPC fatigue will be at a all time high, the electorate will most definitely be clamoring for change and the NDP will rightly be able to paint the liberals as the ones who stood in the way of change.

There is absolutely nothing for the liberals to gain in supporting the CPC. Unless someone can point out something I'm missing where there is something about the LPC supporting the CPC that will help their electoral chances.

The Liberals will have two problems if they finish behind the NDP:

    1. Relevance ~ the NDP can, for a while, for long enough ~ appeal to a broad enough spectrum of Canadians that they might suck up almost all of the red Liberal support, rendering the LPC politically irrelevant. This is the worst
        possible case for the Liberals; and

    2. Money ~ the CPC will be eager to have another election as soon as possible, in the event of an NDP minority win. My guess, based on recent reports, is that the CPC is flush with money, they will be able afford to fight two election campaigns
        back-to-back, the NDP, while not so rich, can, just barely, raise enough manage, but the LPC will be nearly broke and cannot afford another campaign. If there is a CPC minority it will be in the LPC's interests to support it until they have
        rebuilt their campaign war-chest.

 

[vonGarvin]

The whole system is rotten to the core. That we have progressives posing as conservatives and a national party that supports a terror-ridden group over a free democracy sickens me.

Nobody wants to govern; they all want power.

And they all seem to think that raising tax rates on higher income earners is a good thing.

Stop. Wasting. My. Money!

/rant

 

[Altair]

Wrong - once an NDP government is in power handing out candies to the kiddies at no apparent cost, the Liberal Party collapses.  In the meantime the Conservatives bring in a new electable leader and the Liberals would be wise to do the same.  Trudeau simply can't let the NDP have a kick at the can.

are you saying that the LPC propping up the CPC wouldn't backfire come election time? Especially a election that may come withing 2 years?

The Liberals will have two problems if they finish behind the NDP:

    1. Relevance ~ the NDP can, for a while, for long enough ~ appeal to a broad enough spectrum of Canadians that they might suck up almost all of the red Liberal support, rendering the LPC politically irrelevant. This is the worst
        possible case for the Liberals; and

    2. Money ~ the CPC will be eager to have another election as soon as possible, in the event of an NDP minority win. My guess, based on recent reports, is that the CPC is flush with money, they will be able afford to fight two election campaigns
        back-to-back, the NDP, while not so rich, can, just barely, raise enough manage, but the LPC will be nearly broke and cannot afford another campaign. If there is a CPC minority it will be in the LPC's interests to support it until they have
        rebuilt their campaign war-chest.

last I checked, which was a while ago, the LPC was second in fundraising?  Maybe this changed.

Regardless of finances ( and political parties can take out loans I believe) , would the electorate not run over to the NDP at the detriment of the LPC if the latter were just seen as the CPC lite?

Especially a electorate hungry for change? I would risk being broke and running broke rather than running flush with cash and being the target of Canadian frustrations. CPC voters aren't going to defect to the LPC on mass if the LPC props up the CPC but liberals voters would flock to the NDP if the LPC props up the CPC.

I see no upside to the LPC propping up the CPC. Might as well enter a coalition with the NDP at that point. At least they can say they were a part of the "change" and hope for the best.

 

[Altair]

http://www.cbc.ca/m/news/politics/conservatives-still-on-top-as-parties-report-latest-fundraising-totals-1.3057522

As of this may, party fundraising for Q1

CPC 6.3 million

LPC 3.8 million

NDP 2.3 million.

http://www.nationalpost.com/m/wp/blog.html?b=news.nationalpost.com//news/canada/canadian-politics/federal-election-fundraising-race

Q2 results

CPC 7.4 million

NDP 4.5 million

LPC 4 million

How is the LPC more broke than the NDP?  :facepalm:

 

[Brad Sallows]

>would the electorate not run over to the NDP at the detriment of the LPC if the latter were just seen as the CPC lite?

The Liberals have always been centrist, not leftist.  "CPC lite" is what they are; or, if you prefer, the CPC is "LPC hi-test".  Why would the LPC try to be more like the NDP and compete on the NDP's long-established turf?  People who want NDP-like government will choose the NDP - real socialists rather than imitation ones.

NDP supporters would exert a great deal of energy to portray a LPC opposition supporting a CPC minority as lap dogs, or any other collection of servile-flavoured nouns and adjectives which come to mind.  But that would just be the politics of bitter frustration and defeat.  I suspect the Canadian concensus right now is "CPC minority held in check by LPC" or "LPC minority held in check by CPC" - in short, fiscally prudent government of the center exercising more classically liberal principles in search of the balance among justice, security, and liberty.  If so, Canadians would not object to the party holding the leash going along with the governing party while bending the trajectory of the government.

The NDP is basically a big tent of rent-seekers held together in search of power by an understanding that each sub-faction will receive its rice bowl at the expense of those outside the tent if the quest is successful.  Most Canadians are willing to work for their own rice bowls rather than lobby for one, and aren't particularly supportive of the rent-seekers.  As long as the NDP can plausibly conceal its true nature and muzzle its leftmost wing it is electable; otherwise, it is not.