Election 2015

[Rocky Mountains]

The only thing I read into here is the NDP dropping outside their margin of error.

Maybe what you read is only 1/3 of Canadians wanting more Syrian immigration while 2/3 of the party leaders want radical increases.  The conservatives are seriously increasing on all recent polls.  I wouldn't be quick to write it off as a statistical blip.

 

[ModlrMike]

So will the LPC dragging out Martin and Chretien reinforce the "just not ready" angle?

I know that if I were fighting that characterization I wouldn't have the previous leaders anywhere near me.

 

[Edward Campbell]

I find this article, which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail, a bit rich, coming, as it does, from the pen of Prime Minister Jean Chrétien, who was very like Mackenzie-King, in that he was, as the Canadian the poet FR Scott said, best remembered for his mediocrity because he would "Do nothing by halves which can be done by quarters:"

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/canada-must-reclaim-its-role-as-a-world-leader/article26337462/

I am posting this here, rather than in the Conservative Foreign Policy thread because this is Liberal campaigning, pure and simple.

Note, first of all, that Prime Minister Chrétien, with characteristic duplicity "cherry picks" the foreign policy "achievements" of himself and his predecessors ~ ignoring, as Pierre Trudeau's memory demands ~ that Prime Minister St Laurent was also instrumental in founding NATO (as well as the UN) and that he made Canada a leading middle power, something that Prime Minister Trudeau for his own, deeply held but totally misguided reasons, undid, and something that Prime Minister Chrétien continued to undo while he was in power.

The greatest, ever, failures in Canadian foreign policy were committed, successively, by three Liberal prime ministers:

    1. King, who kept us out of the councils of leadership (where we belonged and to which Churchill invited us) in World War II because of his mistrust of the British and his own personal insecurities;

    2. Trudeau, who, in act of policy vandalism, dismantled almost everything Prime  Minister St Laurent had accomplished, because of his own misguided mistrust of nationalism; and

    3. Chrétien, himself, who always, without fail, put the partisan political welfare of his slice of the Liberal Party of Canada ahead of the good of the country.

But, this will resonate with the Harper Haters™ because they are, almost to person, blind to realism and Canada's national interests in foreign policy, and with the media, because Prime Minister Chrétien remains hugely popular with the chattering classes.

Prime Minister Harper responds to Prime Minister Chrétien's comments in this video; while I fully support the generous ($100 million) "matching" fund, I oppose bringing refugees from the Middle East to Canada on security, economic/productivity and moral grounds.

 

[jollyjacktar]

Well, ER, you're right again as usual.  The longer this campaign goes on the more I am leaning towards the CPC.  I see the policies, or lack thereof, of the other flavours and, well, what choice do I have?  The devil that is the most rational is the best one.  The beard, the kid and the turnip, are it seems, hell bent on turning me off at an exponential pace.

 

[McG]

Well, ER, you're right again as usual.  The longer this campaign goes on the more I am leaning towards the CPC.  I see the policies, or lack thereof, of the other flavours and, well, what choice do I have?

Is there an independent running in your riding who is a better candidate with a better platform than any of the parties offer? Such a candidate may not contribute to who becomes PM, but the votes in Parliament would be better reflective of your views.

 

[jollyjacktar]

Ah, well there's the rub.  My riding is Central Nova, I'm here at Disneyland East and am hoping they'll be allowing some voting from afar.  I honestly, don't know any of the candidates who are running.  Only the usual four flavours I'm afraid.  At least I knew Peter MacKay and had dealings with him personally. 

 

[The Bread Guy]

So will the LPC dragging out Martin and Chretien reinforce the "just not ready" angle?

I know that if I were fighting that characterization I wouldn't have the previous leaders anywhere near me.

For the same reason you don't hear mentions of Trudeau Sr., either ....

 

[McG]

Ah, well there's the rub.  My riding is Central Nova, I'm here at Disneyland East and am hoping they'll be allowing some voting from afar.  I honestly, don't know any of the candidates who are running.  Only the usual four flavours I'm afraid.  At least I knew Peter MacKay and had dealings with him personally. 

For now, it looks like you only have the "big three" and the Greens.

http://www.elections.ca/Scripts/vis/candidates?L=e&ED=12002&EV=41&EV_TYPE=1&PC=&PROV=NS&PROVID=12&MAPID=&QID=8&PAGEID=17&TPAGEID=&PD=&STAT_CODE_ID=-1

 

[Altair]

Maybe what you read is only 1/3 of Canadians wanting more Syrian immigration while 2/3 of the party leaders want radical increases.  The conservatives are seriously increasing on all recent polls.  I wouldn't be quick to write it off as a statistical blip.

I have no idea what to read it as.

Was the CPC drop earlier accurate?
If it was, is this a bounce back up?
If it wasn't is this a more accurate reflection of their support?
And lastly,  is this rebound accurate?

Either they dropped and bounced back or they never dropped and stayed steady. Or the drop is being masked by these current polling numbers.

Regardless, its clear that the CPC isn't dead, the LPC rise looks to be over and the NDP is stalled at best and dropping at worst.

I would have to imagine that there will be a surge for one of the LPC or NDP in the final days as the anti harper voters break towards the party that can best defeat the CPC.

Inside track to the NDP atm.

 

[Brad Sallows]

>Canadians elected and re-elected Jean Chrétien despite his dearth of ideas.

I argue that Chretien was re-elected (passive phrasing deliberate) only because of a split right.  In 1997 Liberals took 155 of 301 seats, with 38.46% of the popular vote compared to the combined 38.19% of PC and Reform.  The BQ took 44 seats in QC.  It's conceivable a united conservative party would have defeated the Liberals.

In 2000 the Liberals had a much stronger result (172 of 301 seats; 40.85% versus combined 37.68% for PC and Alliance), but Joe Clark was leading the PC and the BQ took 38 seats.  This is a stronger case for the Liberals "winning", but still it looks more like the conservative faction "failing to win" by not unifying and selecting better leadership.

For Chretien and Martin to be offering advice and admonishments is arrogant and amusing.

 

[PuckChaser]

Inside track to the NDP atm.

I think you'll find that after the economic debate on Thursday (especially if the numbers released tomorrow show at or near surplus), that the NDP support is going to further start to dwindle. They sound like a great idea, until you realize they haven't costed out any policies yet, but claim to be able to run a balanced budget next year. Reality is going to catch up with them real quick.

 

[Edward Campbell]

I think the key battle is between the LPC and NDP for the strategic voters: those "Harper Haters™" who are not wedded, firmly, to either the LPC (about 20% of the electorate, at a guess) or the NDP (15%+ as another guess) or the Greens (less than 5%, I think). If you can agree with me that the CPC also has a pretty firm base of, say, 20% of the electorate then we have, after giving the BQ, say, less than 5%, about almost 35% of the electorate that might be persuaded to vote strategically. Let's say, just for argument that now, in 2015, the CPC "floor" is 30% or, roughly, 100 seats, that means that the LPC and NDP are fighting for 25% of the "free" (available) votes or somewhere between 100 and 150 seats for the NDP and 75 to 125 for the LPC.

So, CPC:  80 to 120 seats (the CPC, we must acknowledge, has less "growth" potential because, certainly, 50% pf Canadians are "Harper Haters™)
      LPC:  70 to 130 seats
    NDP: 100 to 150 seats
Others:    8  to  18 seats
                                      ... based on recent polls and acknowledging that there are five weeks "event" filled of campaigning to go.

 

[Brad Sallows]

"New nanos poll has

CPC 32
NDP 31
LPC 31"

So when people complain about the unpopularity of the CPC, or its arrogance in presuming to govern with less than 50% of the popular vote, or any of the usual misunderstandings and misconceptions advanced on the basis of vote share/popularity share, consider this additional fact: neither the LPC nor NDP is significantly more popular than the CPC, and neither should be considered more legitimate.

 

[Altair]

"New nanos poll has

CPC 32
NDP 31
LPC 31"

So when people complain about the unpopularity of the CPC, or its arrogance in presuming to govern with less than 50% of the popular vote, or any of the usual misunderstandings and misconceptions advanced on the basis of vote share/popularity share, consider this additional fact: neither the LPC nor NDP is significantly more popular than the CPC, and neither should be considered more legitimate.

I believe people are bothered by the 62-32 percent split in left to right.

Same way the right was angry that the NDP in Alberta won despite the right vote being about 60 percent.

 

[vonGarvin]

I believe people are bothered by the 62-32 percent split in left to right.

Same way the right was angry that the NDP in Alberta won despite the right vote being about 60 percent.

To be fair, the split is about 63 "moderate" to 31 "Left". 

 

[Edward Campbell]

To be more accurate the "split" is probably much more like this:

                   

                    Hard left          Left                              Moderate middle                              Right          Hard Right

 

[Altair]

To be fair, the split is about 63 "moderate" to 31 "Left".

who is more to the right these days, LPC or NDP?

It's hard to tell.

 

[PuckChaser]

who is more to the right these days, LPC or NDP?

It's hard to tell.

I think you're finding that the electorate (especially Blue Liberals) are having the same issues, hence why they're not polling as well as they thought they would at this point.

 

[ModlrMike]

Funny thing happened today.

Both my children, aged 21 and 23, did the MacLean's This or That. Before they started I asked them how they intended to vote. Both said "I don't know, except that I'm not voting Liberal". When I asked them why, they both stated that they felt that Justin Trudeau isn't ready to lead the country. Perhaps the campaign has reached it's target audience?

 

[vonGarvin]

To be more accurate the "split" is probably much more like this:

                   

                    Hard left          Left                              Moderate middle                              Right          Hard Right

Indeed