2022 CPC Leadership Discussion: Et tu Redeux

[TacticalTea]

Signal of whom the winner may have to face off with:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1529826138473766912

Bernier and Quebec premier Legault both kickstarted their political rebirths with "a national conversation".

 

[Colin Parkinson]

A good ad by Andrew in support of PP

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=733065927728451

 

[Remius]

A good ad by Andrew in support of PP

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=733065927728451

It’s a slick ad to be sure.

It’s being dishonest about the reasons for inflation. And I’m not surprised that a career politician with no experience outside politics is supporting another career politician with no experience outside politics.

That being said, it’s a good ad that looks well produced. that will certainly resonate with the base they are targeting.

Edit: the one other good thing I’ll say is that at least it isn’t attacking the other candidates.

 

[TacticalTea]

Following up on my previous points about what makes Aitchison unacceptable as CPC leader:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1530138037853757441

During the French debate, Charest styled himself "The retirement plan of Bloc MPs". On the other hand, those candidates who obsess over Quebec's bills 21 and 96 are effectively making themselves the opposite: the recruitment plan of the Bloc et al.

You surely can go down that road. But be prepared for a constitutional crisis.

 

[IKnowNothing]

Following up on my previous points about what makes Aitchison unacceptable as CPC leader:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1530138037853757441

During the French debate, Charest styled himself "The retirement plan of Bloc MPs". On the other hand, those candidates who obsess over Quebec's bills 21 and 96 are effectively making themselves the opposite: the recruitment plan of the Bloc et al.

You surely can go down that road. But be prepared for a constitutional crisis.

I'm of two minds. On one side- gotta pick your battles, on the other- progression over time of things like Bill 96 will further contribute to Quebec being a de facto separate country anyway. It's already an increasingly inhospitable business environment, under a completely different legal framework.

 

[Remius]

Pierre Poilievre 'could be vulnerable,' pollster says, as support softens for frontrunner

Abacus Data: Supporters with a negative view are up seven points; supporters with a positive view are down eight points

nationalpost.com

A coronation may be more complicated than previously thought.

 

[Halifax Tar]

With today's new gun rules the Cons could really work this in their favor.

 

[Remius]

With today's new gun rules the Cons could really work this in their favor.

Or mess it up. This can be used as a trap. O’toole went down hill last election after his stance on guns.

 

[FSTO]

Or mess it up. This can be used as a trap. O’toole went down hill last election after his stance on guns.

O'Toole walked into that trap like Elmer Fudd in Bugs Bunny Cartoon. That the CPC didn't game this out during their run up to the election was mind boggling stupid. Like the sun rising in the morning, the LPC will bring up guns, abortion and privatizing health care in every and all elections.

 

[GK .Dundas]

Also of note was Tim Houston in Nova Scotia who ran on a “we’re not the same conservatives as them” platform.

The federal party might have some learning to do from their successful provincial cousins.

O'Toole walked into that trap like Elmer Fudd in Bugs Bunny Cartoon. That the CPC didn't game this out during their run up to the election was mind boggling stupid. Like the sun rising in the morning, the LPC will bring up guns, abortion and privatizing health care in every and all elections.

I vote they mess it up, judging from previous experiences.

 

[Navy_Pete]

I vote they mess it up, judging from previous experiences.

Yes, but they will probably innovate a new way to drop the ball this time.

 

[brihard]

With today's new gun rules the Cons could really work this in their favor.

God no. Anyone who cares enough about guns for it to sway their vote has already been swayed. There’s nobody to be newly surprised and shocked by LPC gun control. The anger is all from people who were already angry. The LPC won’t lose meaningful votes over this.

The trap for the CPC here is in being forced to loudly defend the ownership of handguns. That’s unlikely to gain new votes, but potentially may cost them votes in the centre by people who are fairly indifferent to guns until the issue becomes loud and they lean towards gun control. Meanwhile the LPC jockey for left-of-centre votes and pull some from the urban NDP.

Electorally, this is an astute move for the LPC, whatever the merits of their policy are or aren’t. I have opined previously on the modern CPC’s struggle to overlap ‘electable as leader of CPC’ with ‘electable as leader of Canada’. This is a perfect wedge issue for the LPC to leverage to force the CPC to eat their own and select a leader more likely to have a CPC-base-friendly position on firearms that harms them at the voting booth.

 

[Halifax Tar]

God no. Anyone who cares enough about guns for it to sway their vote has already been swayed. There’s nobody to be newly surprised and shocked by LPC gun control. The anger is all from people who were already angry. The LPC won’t lose meaningful votes over this.

The trap for the CPC here is in being forced to loudly defend the ownership of handguns. That’s unlikely to gain new votes, but potentially may cost them votes in the centre by people who are fairly indifferent to guns until the issue becomes loud and they lean towards gun control. Meanwhile the LPC jockey for left-of-centre votes and pull some from the urban NDP.

Electorally, this is an astute move for the LPC, whatever the merits of their policy are or aren’t. I have opined previously on the modern CPC’s struggle to overlap ‘electable as leader of CPC’ with ‘electable as leader of Canada’. This is a perfect wedge issue for the LPC to leverage to force the CPC to eat their own and select a leader more likely to have a CPC-base-friendly position on firearms that harms them at the voting booth.

I wouldn't touch the handguns thing. But there is may more to the legislation and everyone seems to be stuck on the handguns thing.

The new magazine restrictions will effect LEs, Levers, Tube fed .22s, Shotguns ect ect... All your Fudd guns.

Some of these like the levers and tube fed will be nearly impossible to make compliant.

This will strike the Fudds. This is who am referring to being swayed.

 

[dimsum]

This will strike the Fudds. This is who am referring to being swayed.

I'm not sure those folks were going to vote LPC in the first place.

 

[Good2Golf]

I wouldn't touch the handguns thing. But there is may more to the legislation and everyone seems to be stuck on the handguns thing.

The new magazine restrictions will effect LEs, Levers, Tube fed .22s, Shotguns ect ect... All your Fudd guns.

Some of these like the levers and tube fed will be nearly impossible to make compliant.

This will strike the Fudds. This is who am referring to being swayed.

I'm not sure those folks were going to vote LPC in the first place.

Are there any Red Tory Fudds? I wouldn’t think such a person is a meaningfully/statistically significant/impactful voter.

 

[IKnowNothing]

Are there any Red Tory Fudds? I wouldn’t think such a person is a meaningfully/statistically significant/impactful voter.

I resemble that remark. And you're right- we also tend to live in ridings where we don't really matter, and in my case are of the view that without door to door enforcement fueled by a non-existent registry the impact of that restriction on deer/bush/varmint guns will be nil.

Edit: Agree with @brihard that this is a very well crafted, long term political trap. A couple (potentiallu pre-planned) tweaks to the magazine restriction (carve out currently owned non-semi-automatic and internally fed, and .22) and you've got legislation that has a practical impact on an extremely small number of gun owners, a number that will inherently fall year over year. And once that legislation is passed it becomes an electoral grenade to replace abortion, because the platform shifts from protecting the status quo for legal gun owners to actively agitating that Canada needs more handguns- the attack ads write themselves

 

[Halifax Tar]

I'm not sure those folks were going to vote LPC in the first place.

Are there any Red Tory Fudds? I wouldn’t think such a person is a meaningfully/statistically significant/impactful voter.

Yup they do. I know or have interacted quite a few.

Will they be meaningful in numbers, or will this th straw that brakes the camels back ? Who knows, one can hope.

 

[Brad Sallows]

In politics the strength of an issue as a vote-killer often exceeds its strength as a vote-attractor.

Most people who would be put off by legislation this strict, or (conversely) by a CPC assertion that the "closed marked" would be re-opened are already "dead" to whichever party has the objectionable stance.

The conservative response should be:
1. This isn't a useful policy; the measures infringe on the freedom of reasonable people and will have very little beneficial effect curbing gun crime.
2. Offer an alternative: measures to interdict criminal trafficking and use of firearms in crimes.

If questioned on whether they would repeal the legislation, the answer is "These parts: a, b, c...".

 

[Remius]

MP says so-cons should rank Pierre Poilievre as second choice. Pro-life groups disagree

Social conservatives are much more cautious about who they support, after having done so for Erin O’Toole who then pushed them to the sidelines

nationalpost.com

It will be interesting to see if these pro life groups have as much influence in the race.

 

[RangerRay]

These two articles on the Ontario election by Warren Kensella are very relevant to the federal Tories.

My latest: Doug vs. Pierre

Musings

warrenkinsella.com

My latest: the morning after Doug Ford’s big night

Musings

warrenkinsella.com

If the Tories think they can win with any of the duds running for leader, they are dreaming in technicolor.