2022 CPC Leadership Discussion: Et tu Redeux

[IKnowNothing]

I know how crude is priced.

You are saying that if Canada were producing anywhere from 2-4 million more barrels of crude/day; able to refine at least part of that and able to transport all of it to tidewater (all things the Liberals have actively spiked since 2015) that the supply price situation would not be better?

It might. But then again OPEC might have just cut production by an equal amount, or the additional refining capacity might have joined the million barrels a day that the Americans lost when demand got crushed. (Or more likely, survived but lead to a proportional amount of failures in older American plants).

The problem right now is global refining capacity shortage contributing to massive refining margins, not crude shortage.

 

[QV]

When did campaign statements approach the realm of "will happen for sure"?

Stop being scared by things that will never happen.

What are the things that will never happen?

 

[Brad Sallows]

Pay-as-you-go legislation, for example. Things politicians will talk about when out of power are often enough things they suddenly find to be inconvenient when they win power.

 

[Remius]

I dunno. Looks like a case of jumping from the frying pan into the fire. It’s really too bad because she is someone I would have loved to see run as Tory leader.

Calgary MP Michelle Rempel Garner not running for UCP leadership

Despite recent polls calling her a frontrunner, Calgary Nose Hill MP Michelle Rempel Garner will not run to be the next leader of the United Conservative Party.

calgary.ctvnews.ca

Could still happen.

 

[Remius]

There won’t be a place for someone like her in a PP led party. I suspect a few will jump ship by the next election.

And to support what I said here…

Conservative MP Michelle Rempel Garner doubles down after Star reveals push to eject her for criticizing colleagues

 

[Dana381]

After listening to this podcast and other conversations between these two men I thnk Rex Murphy should run for PM. He has a really good handle on Canada and what this country needs going forward. His career as a journalist has given him great insight on Canadians wants and needs and on what works and what dosen't politically.

 

[suffolkowner]

And to support what I said here…

Conservative MP Michelle Rempel Garner doubles down after Star reveals push to eject her for criticizing colleagues

If there's no room for Michelle Remple-Garner in the Conservative party thats a scary idea IMO

 

[rmc_wannabe]

The problem I have seen in the CPC since Harper's departure is that there isn't a seat at the table for anyone close to the centre; O'Toole, Rempel-Garner, I'm sure Charest and Brown will soon be added to this list.

PP is the frontrunner because he is the fringe candidate; the CPC party sages are putting their bets that the fringe of Canadian voters are far more right leaning than they would ever let on in public.

They're wrong, and our past 8 years of Liberal government have demonstrated as such.

The majority of Canadians have Centrist or Left of Centre ideals at heart on most social issues. Canadian society is far more accepting of alternative lifestyles, non secular ideals, and is far less "Old Stock" than it was 20 years ago.

I had a colleague say to me that it doesn't matter how "fiscally conservative" a person can be; it will always be the cost of accepting social conservatism by voting CPC. For people in the LGBTQ2IA+ community, it's a non-starter. For victim's of religious trauma and conversion therapy, it's a non-starter. For most women and young voters, it's a non-starter. For most indigenous groups, it's a non-starter. Same with BIPOC Canadians (except the South East/West Asian populations in urban centres... that one is kind of a wildcard.) They would rather hold their nose and vote Liberal again before heading down that road.

The CPC needs Red Tories more than it needs to pull in more PPC or "Northern Republican" voters. The sooner they realize this, the sooner they get a chance to govern. Sticking to the issues of fiscal mismanagement, government corruption, and developing our industries and communities will get them there.

Keeping the lunatics in the asylum should be the primary campaign plan moving forward. Punting people like Rempel-Garner is not a good start.

 

[Remius]

It’s two parties in one. The more right will morph into the status quo for the CPC. The more centrist and “red Tory” types will need to either go their own way or accept and try to influence policy by joining the LPC once Trudeau is gone.

 

[GK .Dundas]

The problem is that Lunatics are running the asylum.

 

[Good2Golf]

It’s been two parties in one since 2003.

Yup.

The more right will morph into the status quo for the CPC.

And if rumours are true, then it has legally blocked/prohibited the PC party from ever rebirthing with its original name.

The more centrist and “red Tory” types will need to either go their own way or accept and try to influence policy by joining the LPC once Trudeau is gone.

Either way…PC2 or as Blue Grits, thus the CPC is likely to be Her Majesty’s Official Opposition of Canada’s Parliament for a long…long…very long time.

 

[Remius]

So I know a few of us here that live in PP’s riding have mused about the support he might see in the next election should he become leader. This poll seems to agree with us as his support in the riding has slid to the margin of error. Mostly based on his support for the convoy.

https://old.ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Mainstreet_Riding_Poll_Carleton_June_14_15_2022-1.pdf

Still lots of time for things to change but he will need to pay attention and watch his next steps. My guess is he might not go near the next upcoming convoy protests due to arrive. I guess we’ll see.

 

[Good2Golf]

So I know a few of us here that live in PP’s riding have mused about the support he might see in the next election should he become leader. This poll seems to agree with us as his support in the riding has slid to the margin of error. Mostly based on his support for the convoy.

https://old.ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Mainstreet_Riding_Poll_Carleton_June_14_15_2022-1.pdf

Still lots of time for things to change but he will need to pay attention and watch his next steps. My guess is he might not go near the next upcoming convoy protests due to arrive. I guess we’ll see.

If he doesn’t take that to heart, he shouldn’t be surprised at the forever Opposition status if he becomes Leader of the CPC.

Incidentally, Jagmeet’s Rolex, BMW and fancy suits clearly comes through in the NDP’s candidate Kevin Hua’s greatest support of from the >$100K Sunshine Listers…

 

[brihard]

The problem I have seen in the CPC since Harper's departure is that there isn't a seat at the table for anyone close to the centre; O'Toole, Rempel-Garner, I'm sure Charest and Brown will soon be added to this list.

PP is the frontrunner because he is the fringe candidate; the CPC party sages are putting their bets that the fringe of Canadian voters are far more right leaning than they would ever let on in public.

They're wrong, and our past 8 years of Liberal government have demonstrated as such.

The majority of Canadians have Centrist or Left of Centre ideals at heart on most social issues. Canadian society is far more accepting of alternative lifestyles, non secular ideals, and is far less "Old Stock" than it was 20 years ago.

I had a colleague say to me that it doesn't matter how "fiscally conservative" a person can be; it will always be the cost of accepting social conservatism by voting CPC. For people in the LGBTQ2IA+ community, it's a non-starter. For victim's of religious trauma and conversion therapy, it's a non-starter. For most women and young voters, it's a non-starter. For most indigenous groups, it's a non-starter. Same with BIPOC Canadians (except the South East/West Asian populations in urban centres... that one is kind of a wildcard.) They would rather hold their nose and vote Liberal again before heading down that road.

The CPC needs Red Tories more than it needs to pull in more PPC or "Northern Republican" voters. The sooner they realize this, the sooner they get a chance to govern. Sticking to the issues of fiscal mismanagement, government corruption, and developing our industries and communities will get them there.

Keeping the lunatics in the asylum should be the primary campaign plan moving forward. Punting people like Rempel-Garner is not a good start.

The CPC seem to be more afraid of losing likes and retweets to the PPC, than of losing votes to the LPC. The freely trade the one for the other.

So I know a few of us here that live in PP’s riding have mused about the support he might see in the next election should he become leader. This poll seems to agree with us as his support in the riding has slid to the margin of error. Mostly based on his support for the convoy.

https://old.ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Mainstreet_Riding_Poll_Carleton_June_14_15_2022-1.pdf

Still lots of time for things to change but he will need to pay attention and watch his next steps. My guess is he might not go near the next upcoming convoy protests due to arrive. I guess we’ll see.

And that’s a pretty significant “undecided” cohort, too. This riding may actually be in contention. Last election I described it as a solid lock for CPC.

Of course, there are still three years to go. And if Poilievre wins leadership that may give him a boost just as much as it galvanizes opposition.

Haven’t heard him say much about crypto in the last couple months. I wonder why?

 

[suffolkowner]

Its likely that the hope is that Pierre Polievre can attract large numbers of people that don't traditionally vote or aren't voting. The holy grail of political parties for some time. If we can just get a small number of the 40% of people who dont vote to swing our way the election will be ours

 

[Navy_Pete]

Its likely that the hope is that Pierre Polievre can attract large numbers of people that don't traditionally vote or aren't voting. The holy grail of political parties for some time. If we can just get a small number of the 40% of people who dont vote to swing our way the election will be ours

I think the success of the fundamentalists in getting Roe vs Wade will have the opposite effect in terms of who comes out voting and people that pander to the so-con sector will ignore this at their peril. Honestly wouldn't be surprised if the CPC slipped from being official opposition with either the PQ or NDP taking over.

 

[Remius]

I think the success of the fundamentalists in getting Roe vs Wade will have the opposite effect in terms of who comes out voting and people that pander to the so-con sector will ignore this at their peril. Honestly wouldn't be surprised if the CPC slipped from being official opposition with either the PQ or NDP taking over.

If that split is big enough, possible.

 

[The Bread Guy]

If he doesn’t take that to heart, he shouldn’t be surprised at the forever Opposition status if he becomes Leader of the CPC.

That would suck for the whatever form of a conservative party ends up evolving, but I'm still convinced that 1) he may be more than OK being the noisy & laser-focused thorn-in-the-side of a Liberal government (especially a minority one), and 2) he may be better suited as that than carrying out the relatively boring stuff of caucus management, governing, etc. (you know, the same stuff current Team Red management seems to be bored with).

 

[Remius]

The CPC seem to be more afraid of losing likes and retweets to the PPC, than of losing votes to the LPC. The freely trade the one for the other.



And that’s a pretty significant “undecided” cohort, too. This riding may actually be in contention. Last election I described it as a solid lock for CPC.

Of course, there are still three years to go. And if Poilievre wins leadership that may give him a boost just as much as it galvanizes opposition.

Haven’t heard him say much about crypto in the last couple months. I wonder why?

And in another sign…

Former Government Leader Of The Senate Resigns From Pierre Poilievre's Riding Association Board Over Worrisome Future For The Party - Manotick Messenger

Marjory LeBreton, former Government Leader of the Senate, has resigned from Carleton's Conservative board over fears for the parties future.

manotickmessenger.ca

 

[suffolkowner]

Where are all these red Tories going to go if its too bad in the CPC? Try to grab a bunch of blue Liberals and form another party?