2022 CPC Leadership Discussion: Et tu Redeux

[FSTO]

Folks should remember that Tommy Douglas and his fellow travelers were populists as well. Just a reminder that populism is not sourced solely by the far right.

 

[GK .Dundas]

Centrists need to ask themselves what part they played in driving the "loons" to take over, and follow up asking what they can do themselves to change. Populism is just appeal to the masses. Why don't the centrists appeal to the masses? Did they lose their appeal; if so, why? Could they gain/regain appeal; how?

Populists usually gain traction when established centrist factions go on ignoring too many people for too long.

Silly me, I just assumed that sanity would have been a fairly good attraction.
Which currently is the sad part as scorched earth politics seems to be better entertainment.
Which begs the question when did we as a people become so simple minded and shallow.

 

[IKnowNothing]

Silly me, I just assumed that sanity would have been a fairly good attraction.

Not to mention that despite running on a populist platform, pivoting to govern as a true PC/moderate saved Ford's premiership and will likely give him a second majority. I mean, who wants to duplicate electoral success when you can yell about nonsense?

 

[Good2Golf]

Not to mention that despite running on a populist platform, pivoting to govern as a true PC/moderate saved Ford's premiership and will likely give him a second majority. I mean, who wants to duplicate electoral success when you can yell about nonsense?

The fact that Ford (and/or his advisors) realized that a pivot to center (ie. leftwards, away from the fringe right, more progressive, etc.) was/is the key to (likely) continued success, while Poilièvre veers further right, speaks volumes. Maybe some will point out that Poilièvre is just solidifying the right before he comes back and picks up the more centrist conservatives. Maybe his is, but I think he’s running a net loss overall to convertible votes.

 

[Remius]

The fact that Ford (and/or his advisors) realized that a pivot to center (ie. leftwards, away from the fringe right, more progressive, etc.) was/is the key to (likely) continued success, while Poilièvre veers further right, speaks volumes. Maybe some will point out that Poilièvre is just solidifying the right before he comes back and picks up the more centrist conservatives. Maybe his is, but I think he’s running a net loss overall to convertible votes.

He might be but that’s what may have undone O’toole. He went for the SOCON wing and they made him pay for it when he moved more to the center.

I’m starting to think the party needs a split. Would take time but those two halves could shore up their support independently. The Center right trying to become a viable alternative with the more right wing side being the protest party they want to be.

 

[IKnowNothing]

I’m starting to think the party needs a split.

Purple signs everywhere say that it already did.

 

[TacticalTea]

Purple signs everywhere say that it already did.

Makes one wonder why PP doesn't just join Bernier. Expect he might if he doesn't win. He has no future in the CPC if Charest or Brown win.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Silly me, I just assumed that sanity would have been a fairly good attraction.

Sure. But that's not enough for the people who are net losers or otherwise feeling pressured. The establishment does well, and talks among itself as if the only people in the world who matter have post-secondary educations and work in public service. "Well, we're the polite faction" doesn't cut it anymore.

 

[Navy_Pete]

The fact that Ford (and/or his advisors) realized that a pivot to center (ie. leftwards, away from the fringe right, more progressive, etc.) was/is the key to (likely) continued success, while Poilièvre veers further right, speaks volumes. Maybe some will point out that Poilièvre is just solidifying the right before he comes back and picks up the more centrist conservatives. Maybe his is, but I think he’s running a net loss overall to convertible votes.

And honestly the Ford government has done pretty well throughout the pandemic, so I think they'll get back in fairly handily, especially with how bad the Wynne liberals messed things up last time and the lingering stench there provincially.

The ON PC seem happy to have separation between provincial and federal conservative parties. There is a lot of PC MPP in ridings with Liberal MPs, and I think endorsement from PP would actually hurt MPPs.

 

[QV]

Not to mention that despite running on a populist platform, pivoting to govern as a true PC/moderate saved Ford's premiership and will likely give him a second majority. I mean, who wants to duplicate electoral success when you can yell about nonsense?

How do you know PP isn't executing that exact plan? Folks around here are criticizing PP for not following O'Toole's failed attempt.

 

[IKnowNothing]

And honestly the Ford government has done pretty well throughout the pandemic, so I think they'll get back in fairly handily, especially with how bad the Wynne liberals messed things up last time and the lingering stench there provincially.

Personally I pointed out the Ford direction as something the CPC itself, and it's base should take note of when staking out a place in the spectrum and seeking long term relevancy. There's something to be learned about electability that the Federal conservatives are refusing to take note of. It's categorically insane that people can bemoan the electoral weight of Ontario and the inability to win those seats while choosing to ignore a sitting blue premier, and how they handled the last two years and came out potentially stronger.

Edit- Ford had to deal with the far-right pandemic BS under his own damn roof. He didn't cowtow. He tossed MPP's. He did what his conscience and experts told him needed to be done, even if he didn't like it. He didn't lose the base at large.
If he had he would have lost the centre and not stood to win next week.

 

[Good2Golf]

How do you know PP isn't executing that exact plan? Folks around here are criticizing PP for not following O'Toole's failed attempt.

Nope, at least not me. O’Toole was too nice of a guy, who either chose not to attempt to try to keep a grip on the far right SOCONs as Harper did, or he just wasn’t capable and/or respected by the same far right SOCON nexus with which he danced at the last leadership race.

My critique of Poilièvre is his clear opportunistic pandering to the relatively small right-side fringes of what I would think his overall target SHOULD be. It isn’t the formula to actually be a PM, but rather stay Leader of Her Majesty’s Official Opposition, forever.

We’ll see how this leadership race goes. At stake is whether the party has what it takes to be an actual contender to govern Canada, as opposed to being the party that represents cranky older people screaming at clouds…

 

[RangerRay]

Makes one wonder why PP doesn't just join Bernier. Expect he might if he doesn't win. He has no future in the CPC if Charest or Brown win.

You think Bernier would let someone of Polivierre’s stature into his pity-party vanity project?

 

[TacticalTea]

You think Bernier would let someone of Polivierre’s stature into his pity-party vanity project?

I don't view it in those terms.

Cruz joined Trump after the latter went after his wife. Graham did the same despite Trump calling him a disgrace and a nutjob.

Bernier knows he needs big names to widen his audience. PP knows nothing but politics. What would he do in Charest's CPC after this muddy campaign? The two now have many things in common. I even think it would be good for Canada if the PPC became synonymous with more than just Mad Max. I generally view favourably the multiplication of viable parties.

 

[RangerRay]

Ken Boessenkool: Alberta isn't conservative

Figure this out now, or risk losing Alberta to the NDP for a generation

theline.substack.com

Although the article focuses on Alberta’s woes, this jumped out at me:

And to my lights, we won’t get it right until we value a conservative disposition far above conservative ideology. We need good boring government, not an exciting ideological one.

Harper understood this.

And there is a world of difference between addressing the valid concerns of the non-elites and giving voice to cranks and conspiracy theories.

 

[The Bread Guy]

... Maybe some will point out that Poilièvre is just solidifying the right before he comes back and picks up the more centrist conservatives ...

Mind you, there's a not insignificant # of Team Blue folks out there further from the centre that bemoan the Ford's and the Kenney's of the world having caved too far to the middle/left/whatever. PP's must also be keeping that in mind, too. Also, if he likes being a rabble-rouser more than a caucus manager/wrangler, he's in for a (what could become) messy struggle keeping both the outliers and the centrists happy.

 

[Good2Golf]

I think his calculus is wrong that there are more to swoon in the far right, than to recover from the center and leakers to the left.

 

[Remius]

I think his calculus is wrong that there are more to swoon in the far right, than to recover from the center and leakers to the left.

Quite possible. I see signs that he may be changing his tactics a bit. He didn’t mention the WEF, Bitcoin or the Bank of Canada at the French debate. And he seems to have flip flopped on a few things he previously said.

 

[IKnowNothing]

Quite possible. I see signs that he may be changing his tactics a bit. He didn’t mention the WEF, Bitcoin or the Bank of Canada at the French debate. And he seems to have flip flopped on a few things he previously said.

Abacus Data | Pierre Poilievre may have the advantage, but his popularity is softening: New Abacus polling on Canadian politics.

 

[Remius]

Personally I pointed out the Ford direction as something the CPC itself, and it's base should take note of when staking out a place in the spectrum and seeking long term relevancy. There's something to be learned about electability that the Federal conservatives are refusing to take note of. It's categorically insane that people can bemoan the electoral weight of Ontario and the inability to win those seats while choosing to ignore a sitting blue premier, and how they handled the last two years and came out potentially stronger.

Edit- Ford had to deal with the far-right pandemic BS under his own damn roof. He didn't cowtow. He tossed MPP's. He did what his conscience and experts told him needed to be done, even if he didn't like it. He didn't lose the base at large.
If he had he would have lost the centre and not stood to win next week.

Also of note was Tim Houston in Nova Scotia who ran on a “we’re not the same conservatives as them” platform.

The federal party might have some learning to do from their successful provincial cousins.