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Op IMPACT: CAF in the Iraq & Syria crisis

Apparently the internal decision making process is "complex" as well.
 
Colin P said:
Without a doubt the air campaign has worked to stop the advance of the ISIS and suppresses their ability to concentrate in force against their opponents.

And is denying them the freedom of movement they had in the beginning...

but we are reaching the limits of what an air campaign can do.

Hmmm...disagree but I think I would add "on its own" to the end and then agree.

It still important and helps keep them weak, particularly when we finally got around destroying their sources of income, can you imagine fighting the Nazi's with these ROE's?

No one knows the actual ROEs being used, outside the people who are using them.  I haven't seen them discussed in accuracy, nor should they ever be.

However, if we had the equipment, targeting, weapons and weaponeering then we do now, the collateral damage would have not been a factor then either.

Despite the appearances given to people who haven't been in theatre AND in the op area, I think the way things are being done now is the way to do them, despite the drawn out battle.  What is the point of helping the people who are under the thumb of ISIS if we decide to openly, knowingly kill them at the same time?

Kinda counter-productive, no?
 
Chris Pook said:
Apparently the internal decision making process is "complex" as well.

They seemed to have this plan all figured out during the 71 weeks before election night.  Weird they need 3 more months to put it into motion...
 
I was listening to the Defence Minister on Sirius (All things are Political) this morning. I really feel for the guy as he tries to explain the governments actions regarding this file. I don't know about you guys but I think he is just parroting talking points from the PMO and is trying desperately in cabinet to get them to change their decisions.

http://everythingispolitical.libsyn.com/is-canada-facing-a-national-unity-crisis-over-the-energy-east-pipeline
 
Remius said:
I don't have a crystal ball, but if they are going to put this to a commons vote, would this not mean an increase of something somewhere? Or possibly changing the focus to something more robust?
Not just because it's going to a vote - there have been previous votes under the Conservatives on "let's confirm what's happening in principle".

If the ruling party wants to keep its promises and recent statements, though, we should see less of some stuff (fighter support) and more of other stuff (training).  Let's see how that juggle that now that they're behind the wheel.
 
Remius said:
I don't have a crystal ball, but if they are going to put this to a commons vote, would this not mean an increase of something somewhere? Or possibly changing the focus to something more robust?

Parties put any change to a Commons vote, lends legitimacy to their policies. Tories did it with a majority, Liberals will do the same. All it really allows is the MPs to be put on the record when the policy is debated prior to the vote.
 
What has been 'hinted' at so far?

- removal of the CF-18s.  No mention of the LRP or AAR assets coming home.

- A beefed up 'train/advise' mission.

- a beefed up Intelligence presence.

- a MP training mission.

Sometimes the real hint is right under people's nose!  ;D

 
Eye In The Sky said:
What has been 'hinted' at so far?

- removal of the CF-18s.  No mention of the LRP or AAR assets coming home.

- A beefed up 'train/advise' mission.

- a beefed up Intelligence presence.

- a MP training mission.

Sometimes the real hint is right under people's nose!  ;D
Funny, that  ;D  Sort of like having to read tea leaves about what Canada was doing in AFG at one point in 2009, watch and shoot.
 
Eye In The Sky said:
- a MP training mission.
It was decided that we didn't have enough GOFO, so the Provost Marshal had to be upgraded to BGen; now it's time to 'justify' the change.

Maybe we should send over some RMC cadets too, to 'rationalize' their Commandant being a 1-star.


/tangent rant
 
And we have a statement by the Minister of Global Affairs that has little definite other than perhaps an indication that things take time. It is reproduced under the Fair Dealing  provisions of the Copyright Act.

Canada can’t agree to all allied requests in ISIL fight, Dion says

By Mike Blanchfield, The Canadian Press — Jan 28 2016

OTTAWA — Canada will have to say no to some of the requests that its allies are making in the fight against Islamic extremists, Foreign Affairs Minister Stephane Dion said Thursday.

But the minister wouldn't say if some coalition members have asked Canada to keep its fighter jets in Iraq and Syria.

"We cannot say yes to everything," Dion said.

"When our plan will be out, it will not be all what our allies are asking us to do, but it will be pretty close of what they hope from us."

Dion was discussing Canada's future contribution to the mission against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant at a major gathering of the Canada2020 think tank in Ottawa. He also delivered a major outline of the new Liberal government's foreign policy views, which differ sharply in some ways from those of the Conservatives.

On ISIL, he insisted the new Liberal contribution will be meaningful, even though the government plans to withdraw Canada's six CF-18 fighter jets from the U.S.-led bombing coalition, which has sparked criticism from the Opposition Conservatives.

Dion will not say when the government will announce its new plan, but he says there would be no gap in Canada's contribution to the air war in the meantime.

"The plan is not out because the current plan is still there. There is no gap. We are still involved."

He said Canada flies two to three per cent of the coalition airstrikes and he said it is "doable" for the coalition to cover that.

David Perry, a senior analyst with the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, said Canadian warplanes may have flown a relatively low percentage of bombing missions, but the contribution has been more meaningful than statistics would indicate.

"Canada's been flying a lot of the more difficult missions for quite some time and that will end."

Dion used the speech to tie together many of the emerging threads of the new government's foreign policy, which focuses on multilateralism and diplomatic engagement with countries with which Canada doesn't necessarily see eye-to-eye.

The Liberals have been under attack this week from the Conservatives for their plan to step up diplomatic contact with Iran and Russia — two countries the previous Harper government conspicuously shunned.

Dion used his speech to reiterate earlier statements that it is in Canada's interest to engage with Russia on the Arctic and at least open a dialogue with Iran. None of that diminishes Canada's support of Ukraine, which faces Russian aggression, or the condemnation of Iran's human rights record, he said.

Dion also extended an olive branch to the Conservatives, saying "the former government was not always wrong" and that there was no need for the Liberals to "start from scratch" on foreign policy.

He cited the Conservatives' focus on ending the forced marriage of young girls in the developing world, an initiative championed by former foreign affairs minister John Baird, as a worthy Canadian endeavour.

Mike Blanchfield, The Canadian Press
 
Eye In The Sky said:
What has been 'hinted' at so far?

- removal of the CF-18s.  No mention of the LRP or AAR assets coming home.

- A beefed up 'train/advise' mission.

- a beefed up Intelligence presence.

- a MP training mission.

Sometimes the real hint is right under people's nose!  ;D
A few more tea leaves to read ...
Canada's new role in the fight against the Islamic State will involve ensuring Jordan and Lebanon remain stable, Foreign Affairs Minister Stephane Dion said Friday after a meeting with his U.S. and Mexican counterparts.

Dion promised that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will soon announce details of Canada's new deployment within the American-led coalition. The Liberals promised during the election campaign to end Canada's role in the bombing mission over Iraq and Syria.

Canada's role won't focus solely on Iraq, said Dion, adding "we will see what to do about Syria."

"The two other countries we need to help to make sure they are stable, because they are so key for the region and are affected by the civil war in Syria and the situation in Iraq, and I am speaking of Jordan and Lebanon. These considerations will be in our plan."

Dion added that U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry offered suggestions about how Canada "can be more effective" in the coalition, whose members also include Britain, France and Australia.

"The goal of Canada is to redeploy our efforts in a way that is optimal," Dion said ...
 
Sounds like our new policy (besides the standing CANSOF advisory mission) will be "You guys go do the dangerous stuff, we'll hang back here and cheer you on."

Canada's back, freeloading off the G8.
 
Summed up? If you really care, send in the combat arms....


America’s Misplaced Faith in Bombing Campaigns

Many think of aerial bombardment as a cheap, effective alternative to spilling American blood. They're wrong.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/01/bombs-away/433845/
 
daftandbarmy said:
Summed up? If you really care, send in the combat arms....


America’s Misplaced Faith in Bombing Campaigns

Many think of aerial bombardment as a cheap, effective alternative to spilling American blood. They're wrong.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/01/bombs-away/433845/


But, of course, we don't really care much, at all.

The aim is not to defeat Da'esh/IS**, the secondary aim is just to disrupt it, the primary aim is to be being seen to be disrupting it in the hope that, like a magician's parlour trick, the illusion will hide rather shabby reality.

Shabby reality?

Since about 1960s American grand strategy has been an illusion; the shabby reality has been unnecessary, unconvincing, most frequently aimless "exercises of power." It isn't for lack of a worthy foe. The USSR-China axis was a worthy foe; hell's bell's, the Warsaw Pact, all by itself, as a tool for Russian expansionism in Europe, was a worthy foe, but instead of focusing it's military, diplomatic, political and social (soft) power there the Americans allowed the Russians to drag them, often with allies in tow, into all manner of dirty little "hot spots."

In the beginning was the Cuban missile crisis ... and the Russians saw that it, a fake or a deke,  worked and so they tried it again and again ... sometimes with good effect, sometimes not. The Americans were also victims of their own fears. Although President Eisenhower coined the term, it was the amazing Dulles brothers, John Foster an Secretary of State and Allen as head of the CIA, who penned the "domino theory" about which the always conservative Ike was suspicious ...

         
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...but which the Kennedy brothers explicitly cited as the reason for committing real combat power to the Vietnam civil war. It went downhill from there.

It wasn't, really, a big step stumble from Vietnam to Grenada ...

         
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... and Iraq, and ...

Not everything America did was aimless and unplanned, much less "bad," but American values are viewed with suspicion, even amongst its friends and America's strategic vision is, I think generally, seen as being blurred, at best.

And what's next?

             
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Who knows? But I doubt things will get any better ...

I know that I can be accused of nostalgia, but, can anyone honestly say that this guy, who was rumoured to have had presidential ambitions ...

                   
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... belongs in the same room in Valhalla as this guy?

                                           
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Or that she, or even him ...

         
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... can hold a strategic candle to these guys?

         
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Jarrett and Petraeus aren't pygmies compared to Eisenhower and Acheson because they aren't smart and driven, they are and were, however, reflections of the America they serve: one strong, bold and principled, the other equally strong but confused and dull.
 
E.R. Campbell said:
The aim is not to defeat Da'esh/IS**, the secondary aim is just to disrupt it, the primary aim is to be being seen to be disrupting it in the hope that, like a magician's parlour trick, the illusion will hide rather shabby reality.

And those are the aim's of who?  The military leadership?  Political leadership?  Joe and Jane Taxpayer?
 
Eye In The Sky said:
And those are the aim's of who?  The military leadership?  Political leadership?  Joe and Jane Taxpayer?


In my opinion those are the political aims of e.g. Barack Obama, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and King Abdulaziz Al Saud. Salman. Most military leaders just aim to get whatever their political masters dictate done with the fewest casualties possible. Joe and jane don't have any aims, except to pay less in taxes and get more in benefits ... about three times a year, after some especially bad atrocity, Joe says to Jane, "we otta blow those fuckers offa the earth," and Jane nods and says, "You're exactly right, dear, and don't forget to put out the garbage."
 
We won't send in ground troops because the Iraqi government hasn't asked for ground troops.
 
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