A Deeply Fractured US

[The Bread Guy]

... Not sure that "edging" correctly describes a 9 point lead.

With the margin of error being 3.5 points, it could be as high as 12.5 and as low as 5.5, so it might be on the inner boundary of edging at least.

 

[brihard]

With the margin of error being 3.5 points, it could be as high as 12.5 and as low as 5.5, so it might be on the inner boundary of edging at least.

I would have thought ‘edging’ would be described as much, much closer than that…

 

[TacticalTea]

I think the idea is that you never take a single poll as gospel.

Polls should be taken in their statistical context, and if a new poll shows a clear change, even if the change is significant, it may still be considered edging until more polls show similar results.

 

[Kirkhill]

I think the idea is that you never take a single poll as gospel.

Polls should be taken in their statistical context, and if a new poll shows a clear change, even if the change is significant, it may still be considered edging until more polls show similar results.

And that is why I am leary about adjectives and adverbs.

The "eye of the beholder" type thing.

I just got called on "abysmal" a day or so ago.

 

[The Bread Guy]

I would have thought ‘edging’ would be described as much, much closer than that…

I think the idea is that you never take a single poll as gospel ...

... especially given contemporaneous polls showing closer to neck & neck (which is likely pissing Democrats off enough as is) ...

Biden lead over Trump evaporates in new poll showing dead heat

President Biden’s lead over former President Trump has diminished in a new poll that shows the 2024 front-runners locked in dead heat. The latest YouGov/Yahoo News poll found that Biden a…

thehill.com

Trump pulls even with Biden in Yahoo News/YouGov poll

The latest numbers show Trump gaining and Biden slipping ahead of the 2024 election.

news.yahoo.com

Also keep in mind that when POTUS45 got in, polls going into that election said he was behind, so big grains of salt always needed.

 

[KevinB]

I just shake my head.

Defense Secretary Austin’s salary cut to $1 under GOP budget plan

Democratic lawmakers decried the move as a childish political attack.

www.militarytimes.com

 

[brihard]

I just shake my head.

Defense Secretary Austin’s salary cut to $1 under GOP budget plan

Democratic lawmakers decried the move as a childish political attack.

www.militarytimes.com

Bunch of children.

We are not the only country that struggles to elect parliamentarians that approach the job with appropriate maturity.

 

[dimsum]

Bunch of children.

We are not the only country that struggles to elect parliamentarians that approach the job with appropriate maturity.

Don’t forget the possible Govt shutdown next week. That will be fun.

 

[Blackadder1916]

I just shake my head.

Defense Secretary Austin’s salary cut to $1 under GOP budget plan

Democratic lawmakers decried the move as a childish political attack.

www.militarytimes.com

 

[Halifax Tar]

How bad is the current POTUS if he's tied with Trump for the best option, eh ?

 

[KevinB]

How bad is the current POTUS if he's tied with Trump for the best option, eh ?

Honestly, I take all these polls at this point with a grain of salt.
The Election down here will pivot on two main issues.
1) Economy
2) Ukraine

Frankly the economy is doing a lot better than expected, and if Trump takes the Republican nomination, I suspect his numbers will drop heavily.

Trump’s businesses just got hammered due to his fraud - and most of the MAGA conspiracy crap on POTUS has now been proven to be ridiculous made up garbage.

Add in the MAGA foot shooting of the Budget, I don’t think that many Republicans are going to be willing to vote with the party.

Biden’s biggest baggage is his age and as a result the VP. A stronger running mate would IMHO prop him up significantly.

 

[Lumber]

Don’t forget the possible Govt shutdown next week. That will be fun.

I'm torn between two predictions, and it all depends on how "scorched earth" the Dems want to play.

If McCarthy can't get his own party in line, he makes a play at getting a few democrats on board and either:
a. they will take it, because it will probably be a better deal than would worked out with the MAGA hold outs; or
b. they still don't take it and let the US government shutdown to make the GOP look bad.

Personally I think a. is the higher road, so I could see them b. as being the way it goes.

 

[QV]

Erik Prince is on the SRS again, episode #76. He has many interesting perspectives on all that is going in with the US and abroad.

Trigger warning for the sensitive kind: he supports 45

 

[KevinB]

60Minutes Interview with Gen Milley https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...Toverlay=2002c2d9-c344-4bbb-8610-e5794efcfa7d

I'm not his biggest fan, but I think he did an excellent job in the interview.

 

[QV]

Has Milley reached out to his Chinese counterpart to warn that 46 is cognitively inert and dangerous yet?

 

[Lumber]

Has Milley reached out to his Chinese counterpart to warn that 46 is cognitively inert and dangerous yet?

JC you are insufferable sometimes.

 

[QV]

JC you are insufferable sometimes.

You say that like he hasn't done it in the past...

 

[KevinB]

You say that like he hasn't done it in the past...

With the full support of the institution (House and Senate ASC’s).

 

[brihard]

With the full support of the institution (House and Senate ASC’s).

And the Defense Secretary.

 

[Brad Sallows]

A 9-point Trump lead is an outlier. Even though Biden has slipped in the RCP aggregate, election is still a long ways away.

A "government shutdown" isn't actually a government shutdown.