2022 CPC Leadership Discussion: Et tu Redeux

[Navy_Pete]

Doubled from an exceptionally low rate, and mortgage rates have been kept suppressed internationally for a long time to keep artificial growth in housing bubbles flowing and feed the stock market. 5-6% is painful compared to 2-3%, but still within the envelope of the conservative stress test limits on mortgages.

Our banking rules are generally really conservative, but means companies can't get massively over-leveraged with like has happened with the massive property developers in China which are basically collapsed and propped up by the government.

The BoC tool to control inflation is to adjust interest rates to encourage/limit spending. That doesn't work when inflation is driven by factors completely external to Canada. What exactly would you like them to do differently?

If we hadn't locked down and people were being stacked like cordwood in trailers there would be angry people. If we had done a lockdown without providing relief for people that lost income there would be pissed off people. Doing what we did to try and minimize avoidable deaths and ruin a lot of people still has people pissed off. There weren't really any good options, and we seem to have come through better off than others overall. Sure, some things probably could have been done better in retrospect, but I think governments at the federal, provincial and municipal levels did the best they could with what they knew at the time by listening to the experts instead of playing bullshit politics.

If they don't learn from this and prepare things better for the next pandemic, I'll be pissed off then, but it's a waste of effort to 'what if' this to death as I don't honestly think anyone competent would have done anything much differently.

The stats aren't apple to apple, but a little over a million people have died from COVID in the US to date, compared to about 43k in Canada, so if you want a comparison, they had about twice as many people die per capita as we did. Hardly sunny days, but still better than around 100k dead Canadians. Yeah, it's absolutely sucked, but has sucked less than it could have sucked to the tune of around 57k Canadians still on the sunny side of the grass.

 

[Good2Golf]

Trudeau has created a ton of this inflation by printing all that debt to pay for the national COVID welfare state. His Bank of Canada has no answer to inflation other that to raise rates which will completely wreck the middle and lower class that is already reeling from inflation caused by external factors.

This - This - This

Some may say, “well others printed money too!” but not to the degree that Canada did. The Deficit LoveTM is not healthy, and Canadians, particularly those trying to survive, will pay the price for Trudeau’s bravado to spend others’ money.

 

[PuckChaser]

Doubled from an exceptionally low rate, and mortgage rates have been kept suppressed internationally for a long time to keep artificial growth in housing bubbles flowing and feed the stock market. 5-6% is painful compared to 2-3%, but still within the envelope of the conservative stress test limits on mortgages.

Our banking rules are generally really conservative, but means companies can't get massively over-leveraged with like has happened with the massive property developers in China which are basically collapsed and propped up by the government.

The BoC tool to control inflation is to adjust interest rates to encourage/limit spending. That doesn't work when inflation is driven by factors completely external to Canada. What exactly would you like them to do differently?

Interest rates weren't fully fueling the housing market just as inflation isn't solely at the hands of the Ukr/Rus war. Chronic supply issues coupled with poor confidence in the Trudeau Government's ability to grow our economy with their anti-business policies caused the upper class to invest in property and housing as a means to make money. You cannot blame inflation on external factors on one hand, and think the BoC can control it with rate increases on the other. BoC created part of our inflation issues by devaluing our dollar to support the willy-nilly spending policy.

BoC needed to raise rates. SLOWLY. They were untenably low and they probably should have started the increases during COVID. Do you know the predictions now? Recession in late 2023. The BoC, under the guidance of the Trudeau Government, has created a housing bubble, popped it, aided to generationally high inflation and caused a recession due to their mismanagement. But I'm sure all those people who got COVID stimulus will be happy when they lose their jobs or homes.

 

[Quirky]

with what they knew at the time by listening to the experts instead of playing bullshit politics.

Except we don't elect politicians to completely listen to experts when it's convenient. Before covid it was always about saving the children at the expense of the elderly and sick, for the greater good of society. During Covid that was flipped, we locked up the young, healthy, future generations that keep the economy going to save a few old folk, who were past their life expectancy anyway. Lets hope politicians learn from this and don't make the same mistake during the next "pandemic".

If we hadn't locked down and people were being stacked like cordwood in trailers there would be angry people.

Speculation.

 

[QV]

Interest rates weren't fully fueling the housing market just as inflation isn't solely at the hands of the Ukr/Rus war. Chronic supply issues coupled with poor confidence in the Trudeau Government's ability to grow our economy with their anti-business policies caused the upper class to invest in property and housing as a means to make money. You cannot blame inflation on external factors on one hand, and think the BoC can control it with rate increases on the other. BoC created part of our inflation issues by devaluing our dollar to support the willy-nilly spending policy.

BoC needed to raise rates. SLOWLY. They were untenably low and they probably should have started the increases during COVID. Do you know the predictions now? Recession in late 2023. The BoC, under the guidance of the Trudeau Government, has created a housing bubble, popped it, aided to generationally high inflation and caused a recession due to their mismanagement. But I'm sure all those people who got COVID stimulus will be happy when they lose their jobs or homes.

But PP is mean because he criticized the BoC....

 

[brihard]

But PP is mean because he criticized the BoC....

No; he’s silly because he promised to fire the BoC governor, which is not in the power of a Prime Minister to do. He would have to pass legislation through booth chambers of Parliament. It’s populism on the dumb end, though it’s an interesting barometer in terms of who likes and is unconcerned by his promise to go outside his powers and meddle in an independent institution.

Poilievre has always been a good attack dog; he’s yet to demonstrate any political maturation beyond that though.

 

[QV]

You read far too much into things. PP was right when he pointed out the government of the day and the BoC were making mistakes. I have no reason to believe PP intends to go outside the law or his authorities to do anything regarding the BoC, you make quite the overzealous assumption there.

 

[brihard]

You read far too much into things. PP was right when he pointed out the government of the day and the BoC were making mistakes. I have no reason to believe PP intends to go outside the law or his authorities to do anything regarding the BoC, you make quite the overzealous assumption there.

Wrong. PP said, with regards to the Givernornof the Bank of Canada, that he would “replace him”. He said this at a leadership debate. His exact words were “I would replace him with a new governor”. I’m not “reading into”; I’m just reading.

Pierre Poilievre says he would fire the Bank of Canada governor if elected prime minister

financialpost.com

So either PP does not grasp the limits on the power of the PM and doesn’t understand how the Governor was appointed, or he does know these things and was deliberately dishonest. Given his words in contradiction of what a PM can actually do, which of the two do you think it was? Ignorance or dishonesty?

 

[QV]

Wrong again. You seem like the attack dog here. You're assuming he is going to go about that in a manner that is outside his powers. Do you think the BoC governor is irreplaceable and is an appointment for life?

So how did Trudeau get away with this then: Trudeau opts to replace Bank of Canada Governor Poloz despite COVID-19 economic crisis

Bottom line: the BoC and the elected GoC screwed up and we're paying for it. They both need to be replaced. You just can't stand that this is true.

This isn't a new notion: The case for firing the governor of the Bank of Canada

 

[Brad Sallows]

That doesn't work when inflation is driven by factors completely external to Canada.

Not completely external. Inflating the money supply is inflation, by definition.

 

[brihard]

Wrong again. You seem like the attack dog here. You're assuming he is going to go about that in a manner that is outside his powers. Do you think the BoC governor is irreplaceable and is an appointment for life?

So how did Trudeau get away with this then: Trudeau opts to replace Bank of Canada Governor Poloz despite COVID-19 economic crisis

Bottom line: the BoC and the elected GoC screwed up and we're paying for it. They both need to be replaced. You just can't stand that this is true.

This isn't a new notion: The case for firing the governor of the Bank of Canada

Not offering an extended mandate is not the same as firing. Try again. Or maybe just read again.

All I’ve done is directly quoted his stated intent. I don’t know why you’re trying to dance around what he has directly said he’s do but lacks the power to.

 

[QV]

Not offering an extended mandate is not the same as firing. Try again. Or maybe just read again.

All I’ve done is directly quoted his stated intent. I don’t know why you’re trying to dance around what he has directly said he’s do but lacks the power to.

You really don't give up. You get completely focused and lost on one word and miss the whole picture.

 

[PuckChaser]

PP won't have to fire him. If he's elected, BoC board is smart enough to read the writing on the wall and ask him to resign. I have a funny feeling being in a GIC appointment without the confidence of the PM and PMO would be kinda rough.

 

[Navy_Pete]

Interest rates weren't fully fueling the housing market just as inflation isn't solely at the hands of the Ukr/Rus war. Chronic supply issues coupled with poor confidence in the Trudeau Government's ability to grow our economy with their anti-business policies caused the upper class to invest in property and housing as a means to make money. You cannot blame inflation on external factors on one hand, and think the BoC can control it with rate increases on the other. BoC created part of our inflation issues by devaluing our dollar to support the willy-nilly spending policy.

BoC needed to raise rates. SLOWLY. They were untenably low and they probably should have started the increases during COVID. Do you know the predictions now? Recession in late 2023. The BoC, under the guidance of the Trudeau Government, has created a housing bubble, popped it, aided to generationally high inflation and caused a recession due to their mismanagement. But I'm sure all those people who got COVID stimulus will be happy when they lose their jobs or homes.

The rich have always invested in property, and have been doing it long before the current LPC and will keep doing it under any future CPC party.

Don't dispute that the GoC and BoC made (and are making) mistakes but it's also not reasonable to blame them entirely given that inflation is kicking in around the globe.

I think the stock market commodification of housing is a major contributor to this as well; the unrealistic push for eternal and infinite growth is making all kinds of basics unaffordable, and putting inordinate pressure on regulators that want to put brakes on things to prevent massive collapses.

The value of anything in the stock market is massively disconnected from actual value anyway; if you look at a blue chip stock like Apple, the returns on holding the stock will take something like 50 years to payback the purchase price, so really only makes sense if you look at the stock as a commodity to resell to someone else at a higher price, which is effectively a pyramid scheme.

 

[Good2Golf]

Wrong again. You seem like the attack dog here. You're assuming he is going to go about that in a manner that is outside his powers. Do you think the BoC governor is irreplaceable and is an appointment for life?

So how did Trudeau get away with this then: Trudeau opts to replace Bank of Canada Governor Poloz despite COVID-19 economic crisis

Bottom line: the BoC and the elected GoC screwed up and we're paying for it. They both need to be replaced. You just can't stand that this is true.

This isn't a new notion: The case for firing the governor of the Bank of Canada

So you’re not going to answer brihard’s clear link to PP’s statement in public record that is factually incorrect/wrong?

At least you didn’t follow-up with ‘irrelevant’ as it clearly is.

 

[The Bread Guy]

... You get completely focused and lost on one word and miss the whole picture.

Ah, but when politicians you don't like say one thing and do another, that's OK, then? Or is this "this is what he says, but this is what he REALLY thinks"?

 

[QV]

You guys can continue to pick fly shit out of pepper if you like. It's quite hilarious. Yes, when Trudeau complains about pollution and then travels by air across the country to ski and surf multiple times every year... yes that is hypocrisy and needs to be called out.

When PP states he is going to fire/replace/remove/excommunicate the BoC governor, most people will understand that if elected PP will do something at sometime where the end result is a different BoC governor... and you folks will be like; "See!? He lied! He didn't fire him, he just somehow enabled a situation where he was replaced!". The inability to see through the weeds is why DND can't have nice things, even simple ones like a modern pistol.

 

[Navy_Pete]

They are all politicians; they are hypocritical about different things (ie PP calling out landlords when profittng off a landlord company).

But c'mon, saying he's going to fire the BoC governor as PM when he won't have that authority is either due to ignorance or outright lying. You're bending yourself into a pretzel trying to justify it as somehow different.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Likely the term replace/fired is simplified for the general public who really don't give a sh*t about the mechanisms used. The CPC will want to clean house of anyone tainted by the JT brand. As QV mentioned, likley the Governor and many others will suddenly find the grass is greener on the other side of the fence and make the move themselves.

 

[Navy_Pete]

Likely the term replace/fired is simplified for the general public who really don't give a sh*t about the mechanisms used. The CPC will want to clean house of anyone tainted by the JT brand. As QV mentioned, likley the Governor and many others will suddenly find the grass is greener on the other side of the fence and make the move themselves.

They have speechwriters and all kinds of PR people so the choice of words was very deliberate, and implies a certain amount of authority. He's been an MP for 18 years, including a stint as the shadow Finance guy so it's either a lie or he is ignorant on that basic relationship, which implies incompetence. I don't think he's incompetent, so this was a deliberate lie.

Why would the BoC govenor resign because of a change in government? They get given broad GoC direction and figure out how to get it done, but are independent to prevent political interference. If there is a change of government, the new GoC can provide new guidance, but they can't fire them. We really don't want to get like the US where there is a broad change of senior public servants every elections to new cronies who may or may not have any relevant expertise.