Trump's 51st State rhetoric will continue until he gets what he is looking for - a secure northern flank. A northern flank secured against conventional and hybrid threats from China and Russia (and China is his biggest concern)
China is his biggest concern.
Russia is a fading concern.
He is looking at the reverse of Kissinger's problem. Kissinger wanted to keep China out of the arms of a powerful Russia. Trump wants to keep Russia out of the arms of a powerful China.
Russia is a manageable threat in the arctic. Vlad inherited a weak and rusting Soviet Union and turned it into a weaker Russia. China sees an opening to exploit Russia's Siberian weakness to gain access to both Siberia and the Arctic Ocean. First as a joint-venture partner and, in future, as sole owner.
Thus, I believe, why he wants to keep Vlad in power and placated. And that may mean giving ground on Ukraine....
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But....
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Trump has another card to play. Europe/NATO/JEF. Trump can withdraw the US from the NATO commitment and the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO while, at the same time, getting Ukraine NATO-esque coverage by becoming part of JEF.
Denmark, Greenland, Iceland, UK, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania bottle up the Northern and Baltic Fleets and, together with the US and Canada, secure the Arctic. Those countries have already offered guarantees to Poland and Ukraine. And the UK has its own independent nuclear deterrent.
Those countries plus the Weimar Group* (I swear that the foreign affairs geeks spend their days trolling) are the people that Ukraine is expecting to put boots on the ground, aircraft in the skies and ships in the water to defend their sovereignty.
Instead of SHAPE and VII Corps on the Inter-German border, with the US President having to fret over exchanging the good people of Peoria for the good people of Bonn, the Europeans will be manning the border and the Brits and the French will be fretting tactical nuclear exchanges with Vlad.
And Trump takes one pace to the rear, puts some time and space into the Article 5 debates and can, conceivably, reserve his thunder for when Vlad gets serious and actually employs his tac nukes against Europe.
*Weimar Group+
Joint Statement by Germany, France, Poland, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, the European External Action Service and the European Commission.
www.gov.uk
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I think Trump and Hesgeth are absolutely transparent in telling NATO, including Canada, that there is not enough money in the American kitty to manage both China in Asia and Russia in Europe. I also think that Russia is sufficiently reduced that Europe should be able to stabilize the situation indefinitely from its own resources. If they want to push Russia out of Crimea and risk a wider war then that would be up to them