Politics in 2017

[Bruce Monkhouse]

Why commit political suicide?

Much more important  then actual leadership........sad......

 

[Altair]

Much more important  then actual leadership........sad......

What party has gone out of its way to commit political suicide?

No party goes out and does something that would alienate their supporters, and the ones that do pay a price at the polls.

Politicians make political decisions.

 

[GR66]

What party has gone out of its way to commit political suicide?

No party goes out and does something that would alienate their supporters, and the ones that do pay a price at the polls.

Politicians make political decisions.

...or they could lead public opinion by explaining to Canadians why a particular course of action is best for Canada as a whole and the affected groups in particular.

Oops...there I go being silly again!

 

[Altair]

...or they could lead public opinion by explaining to Canadians why a particular course of action is best for Canada as a whole and the affected groups in particular.

Oops...there I go being silly again!

Ahh yes, like the environmental groups listen to logic and reason.

Like the mayor of Montreal and premier of Quebec weren't going to make a huge stink about it.

Like the anti pipeline activists weren't going to make sure the liberals paid the price in Ontario and Quebec, key provinces for trudeau if he wants to get re elected.

Like i said, politically, this was the only logical decision for the PM.

Like i said, Alberta looks like it's going to get 1.8 million more barrels a day in pipeline capacity.

So he made a political decision to shore up support in central Canada while still( potentially) delivering on pipelines.

Compared to what his father, or the present day NDP, that's rather balanced.

He could have found a way to block all the pipelines, played to the BC leftists, and sacrificed votes in Alberta, which is what, 3 or 4 seats?

I think trudeau is exactly in the mushy middle here, CPC would have approved all the pipelines, NDP would have approved none of the pipelines, the LPC have approved of half of the pipelines.

 

[jollyjacktar]

Until his promises are a reality 100%, he has delivered SFA and has as much tangible substance as a fart, cough or burp.  Take your pick.

 

[GR66]

Ahh yes, like the environmental groups listen to logic and reason. - the hard core environmentalists are outnumbered by the regular people that want an economy that puts food on the table.

Like the mayor of Montreal and premier of Quebec weren't going to make a huge stink about it. - They would have...but politics is a game of give and take.  I'm sure there are infrastructure projects that they (and their voters) want that could be used as carrots.

Like the anti pipeline activists weren't going to make sure the liberals paid the price in Ontario and Quebec, key provinces for trudeau if he wants to get re elected. - Again, the hard core activists won't be convinced but the larger, general population of voters can be convinced if an effort is made.

Like i said, politically, this was the only logical decision for the PM. - No...it was the most politically expedient decision that requires no actual leadership.

Like i said, Alberta looks like it's going to get 1.8 million more barrels a day in pipeline capacity. - Why settle when it could have been more?

So he made a political decision to shore up support in central Canada while still( potentially) delivering on pipelines. - And perpetuated/made worse the split between Central Canada and the West in the long term.  A great day for National unity.

Compared to what his father, or the present day NDP, that's rather balanced. - Why set the bar so low for judging his performance?

He could have found a way to block all the pipelines, played to the BC leftists, and sacrificed votes in Alberta, which is what, 3 or 4 seats? - You're right he could be even worse than he is.  Lucky us I guess.

I think trudeau is exactly in the mushy middle here, CPC would have approved all the pipelines, NDP would have approved none of the pipelines, the LPC have approved of half of the pipelines. - Again...a pretty low bar by which to judge those who we have elected to lead our country.  It may be true but that doesn't make it any less sad.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

Like the mayor of Montreal and premier of Quebec weren't going to make a huge stink about it.

The Mayor of Montreal already made a big stink when he (with provincial approval) flushed eight billion litres of sewage into the St. Lawrence.

 

[Bird_Gunner45]

I think the point was that the majority of people in Quebec and Ontario (particularly Toronto) don't really care about pipelines in any practical way since there's only a minor impact on them directly. Same as I'm sure people in Alberta don't care about the auto industry or the Irving shipyards in Saint John and Halifax.

Making the private sector basically stop work on the energy east pipeline was a short-sighted decision beyond a doubt. It's clear this was done to keep voters in Ontario and Quebec on-line with the LPC. Politically, rural Ontario wasn't voting liberal in any great numbers, nor is Alberta and the east. Voters in urban Ontario and Quebec, who are generally anti-pipeline, do. It's short-sighted but easy math.

 

[GR66]

I think the point was that the majority of people in Quebec and Ontario (particularly Toronto) don't really care about pipelines in any practical way since there's only a minor impact on them directly. Same as I'm sure people in Alberta don't care about the auto industry or the Irving shipyards in Saint John and Halifax.

Making the private sector basically stop work on the energy east pipeline was a short-sighted decision beyond a doubt. It's clear this was done to keep voters in Ontario and Quebec on-line with the LPC. Politically, rural Ontario wasn't voting liberal in any great numbers, nor is Alberta and the east. Voters in urban Ontario and Quebec, who are generally anti-pipeline, do. It's short-sighted but easy math.

Which is it...voters in Ontario and Quebec don't care about pipelines in any practical way, or they are typically anti-pipeline and the PM is blocking the pipelines to keep their votes?  You can't have it both ways.

 

[Bird_Gunner45]

Which is it...voters in Ontario and Quebec don't care about pipelines in any practical way, or they are typically anti-pipeline and the PM is blocking the pipelines to keep their votes?  You can't have it both ways.

I think that most people in Toronto and urban Ontario don't care about pipelines, per se, but see them negatively. A small portion of environmentalists are anti-pipeline, but the bulk are in the "I think they're bad, but if they dont affect me than I'm neutral" category. That said, I think people in the east, particularly in Quebec care when the pipeline is going through their neighbourhood, which the energy east pipeline was. That was the groundswell opposition in Montreal and other Quebec environs- the pipeline was going through Quebec to make money for Alberta and Saskatchewan and NB. The reality is that people in central Canada will only really care about a pipeline to the extent of changing a vote if it directly impacts them (outside of financial ways which are harder to define).

I think making excessive levies on companies building pipelines (not blocking as you say since there wasn't a block of the pipeline, per se, as the Liberals still ostensibly support it) was more to avoid the headache of dealing with a loud minority in the two largest provinces in confederation than anything else. That's why Keystone XL is great politically- the majority runs through the US so it largely wont concern or upset the 80% of people who dont fall in the far left or far right extremes.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

In a meeting with a number of First Nations from NE BC, we got word that PNW LNG had decided not to go ahead, they cheered, until I pointed out that Pertonass owns Progress Energy and will continue to frack and drill for NG in the NE and ship it to the US through existing pipelines, so the net effect is that they still suffer the impacts and the FN along the pipeline route and terminal, don't get any of the proposed revenue sharing that was supposed to happen. Plus the BC economy takes a big hit, while the company still gets to extract the resource for less benefit to the Province as a whole. Exactly the same scenario with Nexan and the Aurora LNG project.

 

[jollyjacktar]

Be careful what you wish for.  I wonder if down the road that both the Mayor or Montreal and the Premier of Quebec will be sucking hind tit with lower equalization payments by Alberta than would have been made with Energy East revenues.  Would serve them both right if it does happen.

 

[Altair]

Be careful what you wish for.  I wonder if down the road that both the Mayor or Montreal and the Premier of Quebec will be sucking hind tit with lower equalization payments by Alberta than would have been made with Energy East revenues.  Would serve them both right if it does happen.

Quebec isn't in that bad a spot economically right now, their budget is balanced, the debt to GDP ratio is dropping and the economy is growing at the rate of 2.3 percent.

Energy east or not, Quebec might be due for lower equalization at this point.

As for Alberta, energy east or not, their pipeline capacity is probably going to be increased by 1.8 million barrels a day, that's going to help lower the costs of getting their oil to market and as a result help them economically.

Alberta, for the record, is predicted to have 3 percent GDP growth this year with no new pipelines coming online yet, so it stands to reason when the pipelines do come online the Alberta economy will rebound even more.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

Quebec isn't in that bad a spot economically right now, their budget is balanced, the debt to GDP ratio is dropping and the economy is growing at the rate of 2.3 percent.

Energy east or not, Quebec might be due for lower equalization at this point.

As for Alberta, energy east or not, their pipeline capacity is probably going to be increased by 1.8 million barrels a day, that's going to help lower the costs of getting their oil to market and as a result help them economically.

Alberta, for the record, is predicted to have 3 percent GDP growth this year with no new pipelines coming online yet, so it stands to reason when the pipelines do come online the Alberta economy will rebound even more.

For the record, neither pipeline have yet been built. The Keystone XL pipeline only helps move more discount oil into the US market. Net loss for Canada.

If you knew anything about the current political climate in BC, I would not bet any money that Kinder Morgan ever gets built. Even with a Federal permit. You think this Liberal Government will actually do more than go through the motions when protesters start blocking the right of way and sabotaging construction equipment? When the BC provincial government ties the whole thing up in court until the next provincial election? Really?

As for the 3 percent GDP growth in Alberta this year, much of it is borrowed government money, just papering over the holes. Entirely unsustainable. Private Investment capital is still hard to come by.

Your turn.

 

[Altair]

For the record, neither pipeline have yet been built. The Keystone XL pipeline only helps move more discount oil into the US market. Net loss for Canada.

That discount oil is still going to refineries in texas today, only difference is that it's using inefficient and more costly rail. Keystone brings down the costs exporting that oil

If you knew anything about the current political climate in BC, I would not bet any money that Kinder Morgan ever gets built. Even with a Federal permit. You think this Liberal Government will actually do more than go through the motions when protesters start blocking the right of way and sabotaging construction equipment? When the BC provincial government ties the whole thing up in court until the next provincial election? Really?

the BC government has no grounds to stop it, the feds will just let the court system do their jobs, and the police do theirs. They wont personally be there, but they will let the process do its thing. We are also unsure about the shelf life of the BC minority government.

As for the 3 percent GDP growth in Alberta this year, much of it is borrowed government money, just papering over the holes. Entirely unsustainable. Private Investment capital is still hard to come by.

Your turn.

Alberta isn't rozy by any means, but at the end of the day, until the province does the logical thing and implements a sales tax (what province wouldn't be running a 10 billion dollar deficit if it didn't have a sales tax?) or oil prices rebound to the absurd highs of 2010-2014, or the government claws back every single entitlement given out over the past decade, nothing will solve the multiple issues it's being hit with. Even energy east wouldn't solve the issue. Help, yes, solve, no.

That all said, if and when pipelines do start coming online, line 3 and keystone for sure, we shall see how much resistance Transmountain runs into, the lower cost of transporting oil to market will help the Alberta economy on a whole.

I'm not buying the whole gloom and doom for alberta just because energy east isn't going forward, nor am I buying that things would have been golden if it was built.

 

[Good2Golf]

...the BC government has no grounds to stop it, the feds will just let the court system do their jobs...

:nod:

Precisely!  Just like they did letting the Federal Courts determine the validity of Omar Khadr's lawsuit, and if valid, letting the Court decide how much the award should be.


G2G

 

[Altair]

:nod:

Precisely!  Just like they did letting the Federal Courts determine the validity of Omar Khadr's lawsuit, and if valid, letting the Court decide how much the award should be.


G2G

While I agree that they should have fought it on principal, I am also sadly aware that if (more like when) they lost it would have given the piece of garbage even more money.

The thing here is, they cannot lose on this one, this is a federal jurisdiction.

When the feds feel that they can win a case, they fight it tooth and nail. Just like they do against veterans and pensions.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

The BC government can make their lives miserable, because they still need a host of Provincial permits and each one of those will be sent out for FN consultation, which will slow down construction and force Trans-Canada to offer up goodies to them. Then there are civic permits for portions of the pipeline construction and protests, with the delays and policing costs. 

 

[Good2Golf]

The was never a golden egg-laying goose that any government didn't see fit to squeeze the neck of...some don't know when to let go...

 

[Colin Parkinson]

The best case scenario for the BC NDP, is a vigorous defense against KM and losing. That way they can claim they fought the good fight and they still get the jobs for the Unions and revenue from the shipments. To be honest it's a crappy place for a terminal, they have to go through a lift span that' s old and will also be seeing an increase in grain car traffic from G3. So there will be user conflicts. Bridges in that area have been hit about 3 times previously. 

http://searcharchives.vancouver.ca/span-of-second-narrows-bridge-falling-into-inlet