Politics in 2017

[Colin Parkinson]

I wonder if CPC will play the Saudi oil angle, the only problem will be then selling arms to Saudi and still buying their oil after the CPC wins an election.

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

Colin, Saudi Arabia is completely insignificant to Canada's energy markets.

To use the last available figures that are complete, 2014, Canada was:

Producing 3.5 Million barrels per day of crude; exporting 2.6 million barrels per day, thus keeping 1.1 million barrels per day for Canadian refineries. These refineries imported a further 600,000 barely per day, of which (fifth most important supplier @ approx. 10%) Saudi Arabia accounted of 60,000 barrels per day. Meaning that, overall, SA contributes less than 3% of Canada's crude needs, while we in Canada, produce in excess of 300% of our needs.

Canada'a other suppliers - not to mention our own internal capacity to produce crude oil - can make up any loss of Saudi Arabia without even bating an eye.

http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/sites/www.nrcan.gc.ca/files/energy/files/pdf/2014/14-0173EnergyMarketFacts_e.pdf

 

[Colin Parkinson]

One has to ask why import any? As for feedstock, the refinery out here, can only get a small portion from the existing pipeline network (Trans mountain) The rest of the feedstock has to be barged in from the US.

 

[jollyjacktar]

We may have the oil but now we cannot get it to the refinery in St John.  Thanks to the efforts of some.

 

[McG]

Colin, Saudi Arabia is completely insignificant to Canada's energy markets.

To use the last available figures that are complete, 2014, Canada was:

Producing 3.5 Million barrels per day of crude; exporting 2.6 million barrels per day, thus keeping 1.1 million barrels per day for Canadian refineries. These refineries imported a further 600,000 barely per day, of which (fifth most important supplier @ approx. 10%) Saudi Arabia accounted of 60,000 barrels per day. Meaning that, overall, SA contributes less than 3% of Canada's crude needs, while we in Canada, produce in excess of 300% of our needs.

Canada'a other suppliers - not to mention our own internal capacity to produce crude oil - can make up any loss of Saudi Arabia without even bating an eye.

Is unrefined oil the whole picture?  How much already refined product do we import?

 

[Colin Parkinson]

The only major refinery on the West Coast is scheduled for a major revamp and will be down for quite some time, all of the product will have to come either by road from Alberta or barge from Cherry Point

 

[Altair]

Two related articles.

http://www.torontosun.com/2017/10/05/a-pipeline-dies-in-the-wake-of-lac-megantic-being-forgotten?token=6cd7d989fd79b2b3dc80a87fe17e6e45

A pipeline dies in the wake of Lac Megantic being forgotten -  MARK BONOKOSKI – 5 Oct 17

TransCanada’s cancellation Thursday of the Energy East pipeline may be a victory for myopic environmentalists, but it is also an indictment of the Trudeau Liberals.

Under Justin Trudeau’s leadership, the Liberals imposed stringent greenhouse gas regulations on TransCanada that do not apply to foreign entities — including those ruled by despots and human-rights abusers — that are shipping crude by ocean-going tankers for off-loading at Canada’s east-coast ports.

So, it was hardly a level oil field.

It has not been a good week for the prime minister. On Wednesday, Trudeau was embarrassingly berated on Parliament Hill by First Nation demonstrators over his government’s undeniable botching and projected indifference concerning the inquiry into murdered and missing indigenous women and girls.

“How dare you come out here and say that you support our families?” asked B.C.’s Connie Greyeyes.

“How dare you come out here and say these things?”

And then came TransCanada pulling the plug on a pipeline project from Alberta’s oilsands to refineries in Saint John, N.B., that would have provided upwards of 15,000 construction jobs, and another 1,000 positions down the road.

The Energy East pipeline, 4,600 kms in length, would have been the longest pipeline in North America, with the capacity of safely moving 1.1-million barrels of oilsands and Saskatchewan crude a day to refineries on the East Coast.

If there was ever a mega-project, this was it.  It carried a $15.7-billion price tag, and would have provided billions in tax revenues.

Gone, too, is TransCanada’s Eastern Mainline project which would have added new natural gas pipelines and gas-compression facilities in southwestern Ontario and Quebec where most of the country’s home and industrial gas consumers are located.

The reason? The same stringent Canada-only environmental regulations that took the Energy East pipeline out of play, but continues to allow foreign fuels to flow into Canada without the same onerous regulations.

Quebec Premier Phillippe Couillard and Montreal Mayor Denis Coderre, the two loudest opponents of Energy East, would appear to have very short memories, and therefore dismissive of the fact that pipelines are arguably the safest method of moving crude, a commodity that is still vitally necessary and thus far irreplaceable.

Have they forgotten Lac Megantic, or don’t they care?

Would they rather have Canadians continue to bail out Bombardier than have Quebecers feel safe when freight trains roll through their towns in the middle of the night?

As a reminder, 47 Quebecers burned to death on that tragic day back in July 2013 when an unattended 74-car freight train carrying tankers filled with crude rolled down the hill and exploded in the town, destroying almost half of Lac Megantic’s downtown core.

Lisa Raitt, now deputy leader of the federal Conservatives, had to deal with the aftermath of that disaster while transport minister in the government of former PM Stephen Harper.

And she took direct aim Thursday at Trudeau for the cancellation of the Energy East pipeline.

“I want to be very clear,” she said. “Today’s announcement is not a result of a sudden decision by TransCanada.

“It’s a result of the disastrous energy policies promoted by Justin Trudeau and his failure to champion the Canadian energy sector.”

“He forced Canadian oil companies to comply with standards that are not required for foreign countries,” she added.

“And these decisions have allowed companies operating in Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and Algeria to ship oil to Canada with an advantage over companies like TransCanada that employ middle-class Canadians.”

But she was not done.

“Everything Justin Trudeau touches becomes a nightmare,” she said.

Would that she were wrong, but she isn’t.



http://m.edmontonsun.com/2017/10/05/lorne-gunter-justin-trudeaus-response-to-energy-east-cancellation-is-laughable

Justin Trudeau's response to Energy East cancellation is laughable - Lorne Gunter -5 Oct 17

Almost the moment TransCanada announced Thursday it was ending its attempt to build the $15-billion Energy East Pipeline from Alberta to New Brunswick, the federal Liberal government began insisting this was purely a “business decision.”

Don’t look at us, Trudeau government spokespeople insisted. World oil prices and all that, don’t ya know.

Natural Resources Minister Jim Carr insisted “it’s not up to me to explain why TransCanada made this decision on the basis of what’s in its interest … Nothing has changed in the government’s decision-making process.”

That’s a laugh.

The Trudeau Liberals have moved the goalposts on TransCanada substantially at least twice in the two years they’ve been in power.

Back in January 2016, just two months after being sworn in, the Liberals announced that National Energy Board (NEB) pipeline hearings – which at that time already involved months of testimony from hundreds and even thousands of witnesses – would be made even more complex and drawn out. Later they announced the timeline would be changed from 18 months to three years.

Then just this past August, the NEB announced that during their review of Energy East, they intended to hold TransCanada to account for all greenhouse emissions created by the fossil fuels that travelled through the 4,500-kilometre line, which would have had a 1.1-million-barrel-a-day capacity.

Typically, enviro reviews of pipelines take into account the emissions caused by building and operating the line. But the new Liberal NEB intended to hold TransCanada accountable for the emissions caused by extracting the oil from the ground and from consuming it after it exited Energy East – even if it was first put on a tanker and consumed somewhere overseas.

That doesn’t sound as if “nothing has changed,” as Carr insisted Thursday.

The Liberals, and especially Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, have also been extremely vague about whether they support Energy East. That too has caused investors to get skittish.

Trudeau has refused to engage Quebec politicians, such as Montreal Mayor Denis Coderre, when they have made outrageous accusations against the pipeline. An “expert” panel appointed by the Liberals recommended moving the hearings side of the NEB out of Calgary to Ottawa (a move that was later rejected) and Trudeau has repeatedly refused to explain what he considers adequate consultation with First Nations.

All that uncertainty, plus significant tax changes on oil and gas exploration contained in the Liberals’ 2017 budget, is likely what caused TransCanada to throw up its hands and shut down Energy East.

If this were just a “business decision” based on a soft world oil market, how come TransCanada is continuing with other pipeline projects in other countries, such as the Grand Rapids Pipeline in the States?

World oil prices are the same everywhere. All that’s different is the anti-oil atmosphere in Canada.

If TransCanada’s decision is based on business factors, it is the federal government that changed the factors.

It’s also not too much of a stretch to wonder whether this isn’t what the Trudeau Liberals wanted all along, because it saves them from having to make voters and politicians in Quebec unhappy.

It’s also interesting that our own Premier Rachel Notley’s first instinct was the same as the federal Liberals’ – blame this entirely on business. In her official statement she never once even hinted that Trudeau and the Liberals had a hand in it.

The Energy East cancellation, though, must put an end to Notley’s “social licence” fantasy. Spending billions on “green” energy and forcing the shutdown of coal power has done nothing — nothing! — to get pipelines built, which was the original whole goal.

All the carbon tax and billions in green spending has done is drive more Albertans out of work and dive our treasury deeper into debt.

Let me start by saying that the cancellation of energy east has nothing to do with the environment, the economy or safety.

It was 100 percent political.

And looking at it from a political perspective it made 100 percent sense.  If approved, PM Trudeau would have had to fight with environmentalists in not only BC, but also in vote rich Ontario and Quebec. People really upset would flock to the NDP, not conservatives, potentially splitting the vote on the left, benefiting the CPC as a result. Not worth it to pick up a few( very few) votes in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

That all being said, Trudeau has not left Alberta out in the cold.

Keystone XL looks like it will be built in the states, 830,000 barrels a day.

He approved transmountain, 300,000 barrels a day to 890,000, increase of 590 000 barrels a day.

He approved line 3 replacement, upping capacity from 390 000 barrels a day to 790 000 barrels a day, increase of 400 000 barrels per day.

So in all, he's increased pipeline capacity for Alberta by 1 820 000 barrels of oil per day. He did so without angering leftists in ontario and quebec, sacrificing votes in BC in the process.

So politically, he's juggled it well.

 

[PuckChaser]

Trudeau did absolutely nothing for Keystone XL. It was held up in the US by Obama and approved by Trump. Unless you can prove he lobbied for it's construction, those barrels per day increase are not Trudeaus. Energy East would have brought more oil to NB refineries, creating jobs in hard times on the East Coast.

 

[jollyjacktar]

But it fits into some folks narratives that way...

 

[Altair]

Trudeau did absolutely nothing for Keystone XL. It was held up in the US by Obama and approved by Trump. Unless you can prove he lobbied for it's construction, those barrels per day increase are not Trudeaus. Energy East would have brought more oil to NB refineries, creating jobs in hard times on the East Coast.

he's on record saying he supported it, but fine, taking that out,  he's increased capacity by 990 000 barrels a day, with a extra 830 000 barrels a day coming from external forces.

Not exactly like he's ignored the need for pipelines.

 

[FSTO]

he's on record saying he supported it, but fine, taking that out,  he's increased capacity by 990 000 barrels a day, with a extra 830 000 barrels a day coming from external forces.

Not exactly like he's ignored the need for pipelines.

Potentially. Has an inch of new pipe been laid yet?

 

[Altair]

Potentially. Has an inch of new pipe been laid yet?

patience. They are coming.

 

[PuckChaser]

Potentially. Has an inch of new pipe been laid yet?

Haven't you read Op HONOUR? We can't make jokes like that anymore.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

And looking at it from a political perspective it made 100 percent sense.  If approved, PM Trudeau would have had to fight with environmentalists in not only BC, but also in vote rich Ontario and Quebec. People really upset would flock to the NDP, not conservatives, potentially splitting the vote on the left, benefiting the CPC as a result. Not worth it to pick up a few( very few) votes in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

A few weeks ago I listened to a CBC reporter interview the leader of the B.C. Green party and his analyst of the situation was that Trudeau and the Liberals, by approving Kinder Morgan, were willing to loss a few seats in B.C. in the hope that they would win more seats in Central Canada (esp. Quebec) by opposing the eastern oil pipeline.

 

[Bird_Gunner45]

Unrelated, but just saw the new Andrew Scheer commercial about changes to the small business tax laws.

I dont know who his PR team is, but the end makes me think of Ray Zalinsky from Tommy Boy (Dan Akyroids character...)....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jRHULPFE3zo

 

[larry Strong]

patience. They are coming.

Yeah, your going to want to have lots of patience for "Trans Mountain".......it won't get past the Alberta border anytime soon....

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/trans-mountain-pipeline-ndp-1.4241796


Used to be a saying back in the day......something about counting and hatched chickens......

 

[Altair]

Yeah, your going to want to have lots of patience for "Trans Mountain".......it won't get past the Alberta border anytime soon....

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/trans-mountain-pipeline-ndp-1.4241796


Used to be a saying back in the day......something about counting and hatched chickens......

Fair point.

Nothing has been done...yet.

However, in response to that article posted about how trudeau killed energy east, which he did, are people ignoring that pipeline capacity is potentially jumpng by 1820000 barrels a day, 990 000 approved by the LPC and 830 000 in a assist from the Americans?

And while there will still be roadblocks for the approved pipelines, what more can the PM do?

 

[YZT580]

What could a PM do?  Well for starters, he could have ensured a level playing field for assessing new projects?  Requiring someone to foot the bill for all CO that goes through the pipe ensures that no pipeline will ever be built in Canada. And all in the vain attempt to attract a few votes in Quebec.  He has definitely alienated New Brunswick.

 

[Altair]

What could a PM do?  Well for starters, he could have ensured a level playing field for assessing new projects?  Requiring someone to foot the bill for all CO that goes through the pipe ensures that no pipeline will ever be built in Canada. And all in the vain attempt to attract a few votes in Quebec.  He has definitely alienated New Brunswick.

I'll rephrase that, in case it wasn't clear.

What more can the PM do about pushing forward the already approved pipelines?

As I've said before, approving energy east would have been political nonsense.

Loses votes in Ontario and Quebec, probably to the NDP.

Doesn't pick up votes in Alberta and Saskatchewan. 

Why commit political suicide?

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Well he could tell the NrCan and CEAA to finish a modified review of the Digby Island LNG in Prince Rupert where PNW LNG was going to move to. Sort out any remaining issues and then when the situation changes Canada is ready to offer up a ready to build project with FN backing.