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Op IMPACT: CAF in the Iraq & Syria crisis

The international community had to act: but what happened to the 3 block war?

I am not convinced that how we are fighting this (which is in large part, as I said, becuase Air Forces keep promising they can solve problems with little risk), is going to make it any better.

Doing something is not always better than doing nothing; witness Libya.  My worry, is that at the end of the day all we'll do is teach the bad guys how to operate in the presence of Air Power.

I welcome the discussion, and I never actively campaigned to stop doing what we are doing.  I just think we need to consider all the issues, and be careful about presenting a simple solution to the politicians, when in fact a complex one is needed.
 
Eye In The Sky said:
Agree, but will add that there are ground forces involved that the air assets are supporting; they just aren't 'our' ground forces.  Perhaps this point needs to emphasized more often.

A very important question.  Are we 'asking that question' though?  Or is Mr Trudeau taking action 'on his own' and against even the majority of Liberal supporters? 

A second article on this point for consideration.  Again, read with an opinion mind and ask yourself some honest questions...emphasis mine again.

Article Link

Trudeau’s first move doesn’t bode well

Justin Trudeau’s first move as prime minister is to take Canada out of the fight against the Islamic State.

We will no longer be fighting the terrorist group that burns people alive in cages, is partially responsible for the refugee crisis, and has identified Canada as a target for attacks.

While the incoming prime minister has the authority to pull Canada out of the mission right away, it’s poor optics to do so for a number of reasons.

Late Tuesday afternoon we learned Trudeau told U.S. President Barack Obama over the phone that sooner rather than later our CF-18 fighter jets will no longer be engaged in sorties over Iraq and Syria.

We will still “engage in a responsible way” -- presumably meaning we’d continue some version of advising and assistance -- but, Trudeau said, Obama “understands the commitments I’ve made around ending the combat mission.”

This is a very big decision for Trudeau to have already announced as a fait accompli before he has even moved into 24 Sussex Dr.

It’s no surprise that Trudeau wanted to do this. It’s on the record. But it’s important to note it wasn’t one of the key parts of his platform.

It wasn’t something he repeated on every occasion as he did with his infrastructure spending plan.

Did voters give him a majority predominantly because of this position? No. Polls have consistently shown that a majority of Canadians support Canada’s role against the Islamic State.

An Ipsos Reid poll earlier this year showed 67% of identified Liberal supporters were in favour of extending Canada’s mission in Iraq and Syria.

Trudeau is offside from his own party.

But perhaps more important is the question of teamwork. One of the ways in which we were told Trudeau would be different than Harper is that he would be less of a one-man show. Less dictatorial, more of a team player and consensus builder.

In fact, whenever someone criticized Trudeau’s credentials -- as I frequently did in election columns -- the main response was that what matters more in a leader is that they listen to those around him.

Yet this first move of Trudeau’s was made without listening to the team that was elected to join him in Ottawa. It was made from the top down.

There hasn’t been a caucus meeting yet. No defence minister has been announced. There is no cabinet.

This first move by Trudeau is as equally single-minded as decisions made by Harper that prompted the outgoing PM’s detractors to label him a “dictator”.

The Sun’s Tarek Fatah wrote a column just before the news broke about Obama’s call to Trudeau, hoping that the incoming PM would listen to those around him:

“Men such as former Toronto Police chief Bill Blair, Toronto Centre MP Bill Morneau and Canada’s first-ever Somali-Canadian MP, Ahmad Hussen from York-South Weston, are just three who give me hope some Liberals MPs will resist moves to pull Canada out of the war against ISIS.”

It looks like that didn’t happen. This should be cause for concern for those who thought Trudeau would “do politics differently.”

Before the mechanisms of government were even in place, before the Governor General has even sworn him in, he spoke to the leader of the free world and withdrew Canada from a coalition committed to tackling the world’s worst human rights abusers. All by himself.


A sign of things to come?
I respectfully disagree.

Justin Trudeau has said since the very first vote in parliament that he didn't support Canadian jets bombing syria.

He also said it during the debates. Whenever asked, he stated that was his position.

To do a complete 180 the day after he gets elected would be another case of a politician lying. Like it or not, he campaigned on pulling the Jets from Iraq and Syria, it was public record, and anyone who voted for a liberal knew this was the plan. It would be lacking bottom to say "vote for me,and when I'm prime minister I'll ask everyone around me what I should do and come to some sort of concensus "

It was a campaign promise he made and he's following through on it, like it or not.
 
Eye In The Sky said:
A second article on this point for consideration.  Again, read with an opinion mind and ask yourself some honest questions...emphasis mine again.

I ask you do the same thing, and consider opinions from all sides, not just the ones that support you.

I have asked myself these questions, in rooms where the strategic implications were being decided, and I wasn't the only one asking...

Editted to add: I'm not agree with what JT is doing here, I just think there should be a discussion over what we are trying to accomplish.  In the HoC debates it was either "bomb" or "drop clothing."  Not good enough, in my opinion.

Modern wars (of any type) cannot be fought without Air Power.  I am just dubious that Air Power alone can accomplish anything.

So back to my point, if the only reason the US is in the ISIS fight is so that the Obama administration can be SEEN to be doing something, and we were dragged in to support that, then we are again in danger of making a dog's breakfast of this.  If we actually have a plan, other than just bombing stuff, then we should stick to it.

Based on my experience, I'm thinking it's more of the first and less of the second...
 
Altair said:
I respectfully disagree.

Justin Trudeau has said since the very first vote in parliament that he didn't support Canadian jets bombing syria.

He also said it during the debates. Whenever asked, he stated that was his position.

To do a complete 180 the day after he gets elected would be another case of a politician lying. Like it or not, he campaigned on pulling the Jets from Iraq and Syria, it was public record, and anyone who voted for a liberal knew this was the plan. It would be lacking bottom to say "vote for me,and when I'm prime minister I'll ask everyone around me what I should do and come to some sort of concensus "

It was a campaign promise he made and he's following through on it, like it or not
.

Oh come on, Altair. That is ingenuous of you. PM elect Trudeau is acting very dictatorial and certainly did not stop and seek sage advice on this issue. His actions are purely political in this case. After all, it is not like he had't flip flopped on other issues during this campaign.
 
Jed said:
Oh come on, Altair. That is ingenuous of you. PM elect Trudeau is acting very dictatorial and certainly did not stop and seek sage advice on this issue. His actions are purely political in this case. After all, it is not like he had't flip flopped on other issues during this campaign.
The man campaigned on this. So did mulair actually, would he have been dictatorial for following through on his campaign promise as well?

He made a commitment to this and he's following through. Lord knows if a cf 18 crashed somewhere in Syria and a CF pilot was burned to death in a cage the media and opposition would never let him hear the end of it.
 
Baz said:
The international community had to act: but what happened to the 3 block war?

I am not an expert in 3 block war, but again we don't have all the assets in place to conduct it;  we have some tools that can be used to effect it, but the ground piece is not ours to decide on how it is conducted. 

I am not convinced that how we are fighting this (which is in large part, as I said, becuase Air Forces keep promising they can solve problems with little risk), is going to make it any better.

But the 'we' part, the RCAF assets, are doing the part they were sent to do;  halt and degrade ISIS where possible, deny them their FOM.  That was accomplished.  We (the greater Canada 'we') never said we would destroy ISIS/win the war/solve all the problems.  We said "here is what we will send as part of the air power assets to assist the GOI and MESF".  My experience and knowledge is we have done and are doing that.  I wish I was able to elaborate more, but anyone in uniform knows why that can't happen.  I can only hope my words and opinion on that can be considered credible because of the work I do.

Doing something is not always better than doing nothing; witness Libya.  My worry, is that at the end of the day all we'll do is teach the bad guys how to operate in the presence of Air Power.

A valid concern and one to take into consideration.  I believe that kind of TRA was done.

I welcome the discussion, and I never actively campaigned to stop doing what we are doing.  I just think we need to consider all the issues, and be careful about presenting a simple solution to the politicians, when in fact a complex one is needed.

I welcome discussion, debate...even heated debate.  ^-^

I also think we need to ask, and re-ask all the important 'so what?' questions.  I don't think Mr Trudeau has done that on this issue.  I think this was an easy campaign promise to 'keep' very quickly and publicly without consideration of several key "so what" questions.  IMO, the estimate was not complete and therefore the chosen COA was picked on incomplete information.
 
Eye In The Sky said:
But the 'we' part, the RCAF assets, are doing the part they were sent to do;  halt and degrade ISIS where possible, deny them their FOM.  That was accomplished.  We (the greater Canada 'we') never said we would destroy ISIS/win the war/solve all the problems.  We said "here is what we will send as part of the air power assets to assist the GOI and MESF".  My experience and knowledge is we have done and are doing that.  I wish I was able to elaborate more, but anyone in uniform knows why that can't happen.  I can only hope my words and opinion on that can be considered credible because of the work I do.

I also think we need to ask, and re-ask all the important 'so what?' questions.  I don't think Mr Trudeau has done that on this issue.  I think this was an easy campaign promise to 'keep' very quickly and publicly without consideration of several key "so what" questions.  IMO, the estimate was not complete and therefore the chosen COA was picked on incomplete information.

Absolutely the deployed forces are doing what they are good at: as I said, tactical success, operational wash, historical strategic failures.  But should we be putting them at risk without a plan?

I agree he should have studied more once he got on the inside and was privy to all the information.  However, I'm not sure Harper got good advice, or took it, either.  And I'm not sure Obama has a plan, or good advice, or did it for the right reasons.
 
Baz said:
I ask you do the same thing, and consider opinions from all sides, not just the ones that support you.

I try and knowing where I stand on the issue, try to rise above my own stance and look at it from the perspective of others.  Isn't that the only way we can achieve a greater awareness of a situation?  Spirited discourse  8) can be very productive.

I have asked myself these questions, in rooms where the strategic implications were being decided, and I wasn't the only one asking...

Editted to add: I'm not agree with what JT is doing here, I just think there should be a discussion over what we are trying to accomplish.  In the HoC debates it was either "bomb" or "drop clothing."  Not good enough, in my opinion.

Modern wars (of any type) cannot be fought without Air Power.  I am just dubious that Air Power alone can accomplish anything.

So back to my point, if the only reason the US is in the ISIS fight is so that the Obama administration can be SEEN to be doing something, and we were dragged in to support that, then we are again in danger of making a dog's breakfast of this.  If we actually have a plan, other than just bombing stuff, then we should stick to it.

Based on my experience, I'm thinking it's more of the first and less of the second...

That bit in yellow is the hard question, and also way above my level of knowledge. 

I can see we are along parallel lines of thinking, at least in some regards.  I don't believe some key 'so whats?' have been asked, let alone answered and we (the Canada 'we') should stop, define the questions at this point in the game that need answered and base the answers on relevant points of consideration.  I do not see where this has happened yet and this is a cause of concern for me; not only for this specific subject but as an indicator on the mentality of those who will govern our great country for the next 4 years.
 
Eye In The Sky said:
Okay I did.  Now, do you have a single example of anywhere this theory has actually worked?

Here are 2 examples of stuff that actually worked. 

300px-Shigemitsu-signs-surrender.jpg


o-GERMANY-SURRENDERS-ALLIES-WWII-ENDS-facebook.jpg

I'm totally with Eye In The Sky: A war worth fighting is a war worth fighting to win. In War Two, winning was defined as unconditional surrender. This is really only practical with state actors. Non-state actors such as ISIS demand a paradigm shift to a different end-state. Denying them territorial gain, revenue, and assets (coupled with making joining their ranks unattractive through psy-ops,etc. ) is fine, but, by gosh, I'm sure the end-state most of us would like to see for these ungodly ISIS scum would be complete and utter annihilation.  To make that omelette, some eggs will have to be broken, and neither Pierre's little boy nor the west in general currently seem to have the stomach for it, fatigued by 14 years of war. I genuinely believe that is too our detriment: by not tackling this now, we're deferring dealing with the threat until later, and quite possibly closer to "home"...ours, or that of our European friends.
 
> I genuinely believe that is too our detriment: by not tackling this now, we're deferring dealing with the threat until later, and quite possibly closer to "home"...ours

The forces are here, currently writing mid-terms.  They don't add to much, but their striking power is the broadcast of fear when they take the next act.

On JT's first day he is going to get one hell of a briefing from the security services.
 
BurnDoctor said:
I'm totally with Eye In The Sky: A war worth fighting is a war worth fighting to win.

OK, we are all in agreement over that we have to win.  Now the question is how.

Firstly, my opinion is that the nation is not at war: small parts of the CAF are.  This has been the case right from Sept 11.  A little story, Jan 2002, right after I had come home from the Gulf (I was with HMCS Halifax) I was on a cruise.  Some grey hairs at breakfast from the US started to go on about how they were at war.  Notice the irony: the are talking about how they were at war while sitting at breakfast on a cruise ship.

So, if we want to fight to win, using what they taught me about targeting, what is the first step: identification of adversaries and own center of gravity.  I have my ideas, but I'll toss that out for discussion...

This should be a national discussion, and it should have been part of the election.  I know I'm seriously considering a call to my MP to discuss where we should be going...
 
whiskey601 said:
> I genuinely believe that is too our detriment: by not tackling this now, we're deferring dealing with the threat until later, and quite possibly closer to "home"...ours

The forces are here, currently writing mid-terms.  They don't add to much, but their striking power is the broadcast of fear when they take the next act.

On JT's first day he is going to get one hell of a briefing from the security services.

I've had that thought daily since Monday, and that I'd dearly love to hear that briefing.  I really hope it's a good old-fashioned " 'splainin' " that JT gets. Currently he has no clue, from the mundane (calling LAVs "Jeeps") to the broad strategic (announcing to our allies on Day 1 that "we're back", despite having been shoulder-to-shoulder with them since...well...since forever; and then promptly bailing on Op Impact. Don't even get me started on how insulting it is to CF members that he implies that Canada was ever "gone" with respect to engagement with allies.)

Rant over. For today. Roughly 1500 to go, unless we get real lucky with some spectacular scandal.
 
    In my opinion, we only fly 2.7 percent of all sorties over Iraq and Syria. So us pulling out in that aspect isn't a big deal to me. I agree with us having to win the war but with what it costs to fly those jets and the minimal impact we make as part of the coalition, we could be getting a bigger bang for our buck. I'm not sure what the humanitarian situation is with the coalition is but I'm sure with the money we're spending with the bombing mission could be being spent else where and make a much bigger impact. Cause until we put boots on the ground to fight the war and win it, create a proper plan to address radicalization and build a better tomorrow, then spend the time and money to actually follow through on this plan (cause it will at least a few generations to do so) only then will we have a chance at winning. But nobody wants to do it. I remember reading a British article on the War in Afghanistan. The Brit's said that it would take at least a 50 year mission to actually rid Afghanistan of the Taliban and the threat of radicalization. That's nearly 3 generations of soldiers fighting in the same war.

   
 
So percentages overrule principles?

Canada was one of the major proponents of R2P at the UN.  We're updating this to "R2FUAHTWMIOWTL - Responsibility to follow-up and help those who made it out with their lives?" ???

If percentages were the prime consideration, we should never have sent JTF 2 into Afghanistan after 9/11, nor the PPCLI Battle Group, nor follow-on Tasks Forces, nor anywhere else where Canada contributed but a few percentages, morality and principles be darned.

:2c:

G2G
 
I've made no secret of my views over the years: I oppose any and all US led, Western interventions in the region (North Africa, the Middle East and West Asia), except arms sales, until the people there have found some way ~ massive and monstrous bloodshed will, I suspect, be a major feature ~ to sort themselves out. In my opinion most of the peoples of the regions are in urgent need of a socio-cultural enlightenment such as we, in the liberal, enlightened, secular West underwent in the 17th and 18th centuries. Of course, in our case, the enlightenment had to be preceded by a religious reformation which, in its turn, needed the bloody Thirty Years War. Similar events in Asia (the Chinese enlightenment happened, arguably, 2,500 years ago, after the bloody Spring and Autumn (春秋) and Warring States (戰國 / 战国) periods) followed a similar pattern, albeit with less religious involvement.

Anyway, I proposed, in the past, isolation, which includes, sadly, only very, very limited, non-governmental humanitarian aid.

So I applaud M Trudeau for backing away, but I oppose refugee resettlement and government humanitarian projects. Leave 'em alone for a generation or two, in my prescription ... let Allah sort 'em out.
 
As usual Mr. Campbell gets to the root of the issue and provides the logical course of action.  Which of course won't be taken by the West.  That's not to say that the West is collectively stupid or incapable of making hard decisions (at least not totally), but there are other factors than sheer logic that come into play. 

There is general human compassion and an abhorrence of violence and suffering which our (voting) public would find it difficult to sit back and simply watch.  There are short term economic and political factors which drive our involvement (which are always easier to see and pursue than the long term factors). 

My personal preference would be to see the Arab coalition members completely take over the bombing campaign from the West.  We could perhaps still provide our Aurora and tanker support to the campaign in order to maximize the effectiveness, but it really is their war to fight.  The problem is that many of these "allies" in the short term really are our enemies (or at the very least NOT our friends) in the long term and are contributing to the base problem of Islamic radicalism in the Middle East. 

That being the case, I'm not opposed to pulling even those elements out too, but I do think that politically it's very important to make it very clear to our Western allies in the coalition our reason for pulling out...not just pulling out because we're unwilling to do our fair share of the heavy lifting when it's required.  This means that we may have to be seen to be picking up the slack in other areas by our allies in order to maintain our credibility with them.

The Kurds may be a different case.  Supporting them may possibly be in both our short and long term interests.  They may have the possibility of being a more moderate, pro-Western, wedge into the Middle East that doesn't carry the negatives that support of the Gulf States carries.  Continued and even increased support for them could be something I'd support but there are certainly political risks in that as well.  NATO member Turkey certainly does not want a strong, independent Kurdish state developing and there is a real risk of Canadian-supported Kurds coming into direct conflict with Russian-supported (or even Russian national) forces in Syria.  Do we have the guts to follow through with our support if the going gets tough?  Is our national interest there strong enough to be worth that support?  I'm not sure I know the answer to that.

I also agree in general with Mr. Campbell's stand on refugees.  I don't think it does any good for us to take in large numbers of refugees from the region.  I'm fine with taking in immigrants who meet our requirements but we have a process in place for that already.  No need for special quotas, etc.  I am however fine with increasing humanitarian assistance to the region to support refugees locally.  Better to give money to Turkey, Jordan and the Kurds to support people displaced by the war rather then moving a handful of them to our country. 
 
E.R. Campbell said:
I oppose refugee resettlement and government humanitarian projects. Leave 'em alone for a generation or two, in my prescription ... let Allah sort 'em out.

^^^^ This :bravo:
 
CMoffs said:
    In my opinion, we only fly 2.7 percent of all sorties over Iraq and Syria. So us pulling out in that aspect isn't a big deal to me. I agree with us having to win the war but with what it costs to fly those jets and the minimal impact we make as part of the coalition, we could be getting a bigger bang for our buck. I'm not sure what the humanitarian situation is with the coalition is but I'm sure with the money we're spending with the bombing mission could be being spent else where and make a much bigger impact. Cause until we put boots on the ground to fight the war and win it, create a proper plan to address radicalization and build a better tomorrow, then spend the time and money to actually follow through on this plan (cause it will at least a few generations to do so) only then will we have a chance at winning. But nobody wants to do it. I remember reading a British article on the War in Afghanistan. The Brit's said that it would take at least a 50 year mission to actually rid Afghanistan of the Taliban and the threat of radicalization. That's nearly 3 generations of soldiers fighting in the same war.

 

we aren't the boots on the ground in this one, we are HELPING the boots on the ground in this one.

Also need to remember it's 2.7 of ALL sorts,  not just combat ones.  The great thing about a coalition?  Many hands make light work.
 
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