Ontario Politics in 2018

[jollyjacktar]

I am glad it's not my election, as l would be hard pressed on what to do.  None of the options look attractive to me.  Much like the Federal side of things.

 

[mariomike]

Lets be honest, this whole thing started in TO blew into the US and then blew back here...  To think we haven't been populist is ignorant of our history.

To be honest, I do think the Ford/Trump comparison is relevant to the Ontario election.

If you wish, the discussion of the Ford Nation / MAGA movements can be split into a Canadian Politics thread of its own.

Those who wish to discuss it, may do so in its own thread.

Those who do not wish to, don't have to.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

I am glad it's not my election, as l would be hard pressed on what to do.  None of the options look attractive to me.  Much like the Federal side of things.

I don't have any difficulty making a choice. I watched Bob Rae kill the province with the NDP and I've seen Wynne and McGuinty do the same. The Trillium Party, et al. have a long way to go before they are a viable option.

I already know the wynne liberals. Not an option.
Horvath is already talking millions in social programs. Not and option.
Fringe Parties. Not viable and wasted vote.
Protest votes are a waste and have unintended, dire consequences. Like the NDP coming to power with Bob Rae on a protest vote. Nobody wanted them, but people were pissed at the PCs and liberals and were surprised and befuddled when they won.

If you want to throw your vote away, go ahead. Not my business, but if you gamble and waste it on a protest vote, there's no crying when you get surprised.

That leaves the PCs. I will vote my local PC candidate. If Doug Ford is still in charge, I will accept him as Premier, or any other PC that happens in that spot.

The leadership vote is over. There is nothing left to argue. Not who you think should have won or why. That one has left the building. Moot point.
Ford is not Trump. They are both males, that's about it. Besides, the laws, government, politics don't even mirror ours, except your personal view of who represents good and who is evil.

I am going to watch it all carefully, but barring some sort of drug induced epiphany, I will be voting PC, even if I wasn't already a member.

The rear view mirror is smaller than the windshield for a reason.

 

[Remius]

Not sure it needs a seperate thread info discussed in the context of Ontario politics.  Doug Ford will bring a populist approach to this election and as such the same approach to his politics. 

He is a populist and very polarizing and this will factor in to Ontario politics.  We likely would not be having this were it anyone else at the PC helm as someone mentioned but we can’t change that fact now.

 

[Remius]

Ford is not Trump. They are both males, that's about it.

Not quite but your point is taken.  The problem is that some will see a few similarities and assume the rest is the same.  On some points they are similar and on other side they are polar opposites.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Not quite but your point is taken.  The problem is that some will see a few similarities and assume the rest is the same.  On some points they are similar and on other side they are polar opposites.

Yup. The same similarities that millions of others share. Only makes them good or evil in the eyes of the beholders. There is no meaningful comparison that'll make any kind of difference. Just extra drum beating at 07:30 on a Sunday. Noise for no reason, other than pissing off the neighbours.

But don't let me stop anyone discussing fascinating hypotheticals. It's going to happen anyway.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Not quite but your point is taken.  The problem is that some will see a few similarities and assume the rest is the same.  On some points they are similar and on other side they are polar opposites.

Does it really matter though? Would any conservative candidate get away from being compared to Donald Trump or even "basically Hitler"?  Or any Liberal candidate not to be painted as a snow flake/beta male whatever?

It's pretty much common SOP for one side to find the worst possible icon to compare their opponent to.

Does anyone actually think Wynne isn't the worst possible choice for Premier of Ontario?  The only person who can remove her from her position right now is Doug Ford.

 

[Remius]

Yup. The same similarities that millions of others share. Only makes them good or evil in the eyes of the beholders. There is no meaningful comparison that'll make any kind of difference. Just extra drum beating at 07:30 on a Sunday. Noise for no reason, other than pissing off the neighbours.

But don't let me stop anyone discussing fascinating hypotheticals. It's going to happen anyway.

Well if we look at what counts. 

Both share the following:  Populist approach to politics.  Both claim to represent the little guy.  Both aren’t really from the little guy world and born with or inherited silver spoons.  Both tend to shoot from the mouth.  Both also speak plainly.  Both have checkered questionable pasts but for different reasons.  Both claim to fight against the system and the elites.  Both seem to only have a basic grasp of things like the economy, or how government works.  Both have made some interesting claims and both are in similar situations that the US just faced in 2016.  A polarizing anti establishment candidate facing an unpopular establishment candidate.


But...

Ford as far as I know doesn’t have the same reputation with women that Trump has. He hasn’t displayed the level of disrespect Trump did towards various individuals and or groups.  Ford has a very good relationship with immigrants and minorities.  Ford also seems to be sticking to his message about less government etc without calling for Wynne to be thrown in jail. 

Like I mentioned before Ford the man is nothing like Trump but politically and policy wise they share a lot in common.  But that’s just an opinion. One that I try to temper with as much objectivity as I can. The other thing is that’s his brother was compared to Trump and that might the problem as he is compared to his brother as well and people mix them up a lot.

That’s the problem with legacy candidates.  They carry their legacies with them.  Trudeau, Clinton, Mulroney etc.

 

[Remius]

Does it really matter though? Would any conservative candidate get away from being compared to Donald Trump or even "basically Hitler"?  Or any Liberal candidate not to be painted as a snow flake/beta male whatever?

It's pretty much common SOP for one side to find the worst possible icon to compare their opponent to.

Does anyone actually think Wynne isn't the worst possible choice for Premier of Ontario?  The only person who can remove her from her position right now is Doug Ford.

True. It shouldn’t matter but it does.  Because some of those things can sway some people.  Mulroney and Elliott would never have been compared to Trump.  But I’m sure Mulroney’s father and Elliotts link to Stephen Harper via her husband would have as well.  See my last post on legacy candidates.

On the Wynne being the worst choice I agree. Tenfold.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Well if we look at what counts. 

Both share the following:  Populist approach to politics.  Both claim to represent the little guy.  Both aren’t really from the little guy world and born with or inherited silver spoons.  Both tend to shoot from the mouth.  Both also speak plainly.  Both have checkered questionable pasts but for different reasons.  Both claim to fight against the system and the elites.  Both seem to only have a basic grasp of things like the economy, or how government works.  Both have made some interesting claims and both are in similar situations that the US just faced in 2016.  A polarizing anti establishment candidate facing an unpopular establishment candidate.

As does every other politician. This stuff isn't exclusive to any one person or party. So, they have similarities for some people. I suppose that it might assuage some to feel good about tossing feces and voting against Ford because they don't like Trump. But, those kind of people, that vote on those comparisons, IMO, are not enough to sway the general vote


But...

Ford as far as I know doesn’t have the same reputation with women that Trump has. He hasn’t displayed the level of disrespect Trump did towards various individuals and or groups.  Ford has a very good relationship with immigrants and minorities.  Ford also seems to be sticking to his message about less government etc without calling for Wynne to be thrown in jail. 

So, nothing like Trump then, on the stuff that matters.

Like I mentioned before Ford the man is nothing like Trump but politically and policy wise they share a lot in common.  But that’s just an opinion. One that I try to temper with as much objectivity as I can. The other thing is that’s his brother was compared to Trump and that might the problem as he is compared to his brother as well and people mix them up a lot.


People need to remember that Rob is dead and this election has nothing to do with him. Not that'll stop people from trying to draw comparisons or conclusions from such a tenuous position.

That’s the problem with legacy candidates.  They carry their legacies with them.  Trudeau, Clinton, Mulroney etc.


I have no doubt that it was the legacy left by Lyin, brown bag Brian, that sewered his daughters chances before it got started. We'll see how she performs as an MP.

I won't stop anyone from saying what they will.

 

[Bird_Gunner45]

I agree that the Tories in Ontario will do well in rural ridings and in smaller centres, but I think they could make surprising gains in urban ridings too. As Ford Nation demonstrated, cities are not monolithic blocs of centrist voters, or "lefties". There are all sorts of fracture lines on economic, social and ethnic lines inside any big city.

Ford's  folksy, "let's git them elites" approach will play equally well in Kapuskasing, Timmins, St Thomas, Pembroke, Mississauga and Etobicoke. Don't take anything for granted. Just watch him go.

You don't have to like someone to respect their ability to win.

I agree 100% that they can make gains in the urban ridings if they stick to the key messages of fiscal prudence and hammer the liberals on record. If the Liberals can get Ford to veer off into things like Niqabs, abortion, gay marriage, etc etc than it will be a much harder sell. Not to say he will, but I can imagine that will be the Liberal tactic.

 

[Furniture]

I agree 100% that they can make gains in the urban ridings if they stick to the key messages of fiscal prudence and hammer the liberals on record. If the Liberals can get Ford to veer off into things like Niqabs, abortion, gay marriage, etc etc than it will be a much harder sell. Not to say he will, but I can imagine that will be the Liberal tactic.

I think that is one thing he won't touch no matter how much baiting by the Liberals. As has been said before by several commentators he does well with the immigration issue, and has doesn't play race politics.

I just read in a McLean's article that the NDP are gaining in the latest polls, and that their leader is by far the most popular in polling as well. I'm slightly concerned that the fear of the Rae era won't be strong enough to keep the NDP out if the Liberals and PCs spend the whole campaign only taking shots at each other sparing the NDP.

 

[Altair]

I think that is one thing he won't touch no matter how much baiting by the Liberals. As has been said before by several commentators he does well with the immigration issue, and has doesn't play race politics.

I just read in a McLean's article that the NDP are gaining in the latest polls, and that their leader is by far the most popular in polling as well. I'm slightly concerned that the fear of the Rae era won't be strong enough to keep the NDP out if the Liberals and PCs spend the whole campaign only taking shots at each other sparing the NDP.

like I said,  the vote on the left is fluid.

 

[ModlrMike]

I agree 100% that they can make gains in the urban ridings if they stick to the key messages of fiscal prudence and hammer the liberals on record. If the Liberals can get Ford to veer off into things like Niqabs, abortion, gay marriage, etc etc than it will be a much harder sell. Not to say he will, but I can imagine that will be the Liberal tactic.

Yes, he has to avoid taking the bait.

If Mr Ford can steer the 905/416 towards the blue team, I wonder if there will be any knock on effect at the federal level considering that election is one year later. As said elsewhere, the Conservatives can form the government without taking Quebec.

 

[mariomike]

I think that is one thing he won't touch no matter how much baiting by the Liberals. As has been said before by several commentators he does well with the immigration issue, and has doesn't play race politics.

I don't follow party politics. Never have. Probably never will.

However, I do follow City Hall. Because those politicians vote for our pay, retirement benefits and pension.

Even though I had already retired by then, as a resident, I followed the ups and downs of Ford Nation in the 2010 - 2014 era.

Never saw anything like it before, or since.

As far as voters are concerned, here is where I believe Ford Nation did well, and not so well in the city,

FN has more immigrants, more single parents, more people on social assistance, more low-income earners, more people in neighbourhoods with falling incomes, more people with fewer transit options, fewer people with university degrees, fewer people whose first language is English, more people living in ( non-luxury ) highrises.

You can read the details in the 2014 election results. ( The year Doug ran for mayor. )

No idea how FN will do out of town. But, I guess they will do ok in the 905.

It is worth mentioning that Ford Nation has held Ward 2 since 2000.

First Rob, then Doug, then Mike Ford "inherited" it.

To understand Ford Nation, it helps to understand Ward 2. Maybe even take a drive around it. Stop at the Steak Queen for lunch.

You may, or may not, also wish to attend the next Ford Fest.

 

[pbi]

Yes, he has to avoid taking the bait. ..

He may already be drifting toward the edge of the swamp with his comments about limiting abortions for minors and "scrapping" the provincial sex education curriculum.

The first of these (abortion limitation) actually makes sense to me: if that had been our daughter when she was a minor, my wife and I would certainly have wanted to know about it, and have a say.  However, if that morphs into an all-out move against abortion, he may harm himself.

The second, I'm not so sure about. Sex education has been around since I was in high school in the early 1970s, apparently without leading to the triumph of Satan just yet. To me (and I think, millions of other Canadians), it's just another part of teaching health. I haven't read the curriculum, but my cousin (a public school teacher in Kitchener) tells me that it's fairly innocuous, and that in their school board most of the resistance appeared to be coming from certain immigrant groups known for extreme social conservatism. (A point of view to which they are quite entitled) From what I saw in the media coverage of protests in the GTA, that seemed to hold true as well. Doug seems to want to get the votes of immigrant communities (a fine objective, within reason) so he might have to be careful not to veer too far to that side.

If he navigates these waters well, and focuses on what matters to the great majority of votes (our wallets and our health), then he can do well. If I see more of that sort of pragmatic, moderate conservatism, and less of the  rampant populism and appeal to medievalism, I will vote Tory. I want these Liberals out too, but I want to vote with a clear conscience, not just a protest vote.

 

[Strike]

I'm curious to see who he's going to hire to run his campaign.  I know the guy who ran Rob Ford's campaign has had some personal issue in the recent past but has worked hard to overcome them.  The same guy ran Christie Clark's campaign out west and John Tory's back in Toronto too.  His team is pretty darned good.

 

[mariomike]

I know the guy who ran Rob Ford's campaign has had some personal issue in the recent past but has worked hard to overcome them. 

Nick was the architect of Rob’s “Stop the gravy train” campaign.

He later helped Toronto firefighters battle Rob's proposed cuts to TFD.

Rob had ordered a 10 per cent budget reduction from all departments and emergency services were not exempt.

When faced with the threat of 300 city firefighters being laid off, their union hired Nick for their "Not Gravy" offensive against Rob.

The union - with Nick's assistance - launched an aggressive campaign to characterize the proposed cuts as “dangerous” and a serious threat to public safety.

In the past the firefighters have endorsed and campaigned for Premier McGuinty and the provincial Liberals.

They were certainly no fans of provincial Conservative leader Tim Hudak.

Doug also had to make a written apology to our Chief of Police.

QUOTE

Toronto police chief accepts Doug Ford's written apology for 'payback' comment
https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/toronto-police-chief-accepts-doug-ford-s-written-apology-for-payback-comment-1.1959917

Firefighters union issues anti-Hudak letter
http://torontosun.com/2014/06/04/firefighters-union-issues-anti-hudak-letter/wcm/f188f9a0-aeb6-453c-bcd7-5da6eeae3e74

Kathleen Wynne makes a campaign stop at the Burlington's Appleby GO Station, where she was greeted firefighters who turned out to support the Grits.
https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2014/05/06/campaign_notes_tales_from_the_trail.html
How can you tell you’re at a Liberal campaign event? Look for beefy firefighters in yellow T-shirts.

As they did for former premier Dalton McGuinty, Ontario Professional Fire Fighters Association members are turning out in droves to help the Grits.

Again in the 2011 election, they deployed a yellow RV painted with a “Firefighters for McGuinty” banner, hitting more than 60 campaign stops and drowning out protesters when needed.

Wynne’s move expanded what McGuinty did seven years ago to help the firefighters who were also key supporters during his 2007 and 2011 campaigns.

Ontario election 2014: OPP officers' union launches anti-Hudak ads
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-votes-2014/ontario-election-2014-opp-officers-union-launches-anti-hudak-ads-1.2661984
Ads don't mention job cuts, but focus on collective bargaining, arbitration, pensions

Doug Ford, firefighters union clash over fire truck
https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2014/04/19/doug_ford_firefighters_union_clash_over_fire_truck.html
Doug Ford also criticized public service union leaders in general, noting his he and his brother “differentiate between labour and labour leadership.”

END QUOTE

The "labour leadership" were elected by us, to stand up for us, with politicians.

If 2007, 2011, and 2014 are any indications...

 

[Strike]

Nick was the architect of Rob’s “Stop the gravy train” campaign.

He later helped Toronto firefighters battle Rob's proposed cuts to TFD.

Rob had ordered a 10 per cent budget reduction from all departments and emergency services were not exempt.

When faced with the threat of 300 city firefighters being laid off, their union hired Nick for their "Not Gravy" offensive against Rob.

The union - with Nick's assistance - launched an aggressive campaign to characterize the proposed cuts as “dangerous” and a serious threat to public safety.

It's a testament to his abilities when all sides have hired him.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

The second, I'm not so sure about. Sex education has been around since I was in high school in the early 1970s, apparently without leading to the triumph of Satan just yet. To me (and I think, millions of other Canadians), it's just another part of teaching health. I haven't read the curriculum, but my cousin (a public school teacher in Kitchener) tells me that it's fairly innocuous, and that in their school board most of the resistance appeared to be coming from certain immigrant groups known for extreme social conservatism. (A point of view to which they are quite entitled) From what I saw in the media coverage of protests in the GTA, that seemed to hold true as well. Doug seems to want to get the votes of immigrant communities (a fine objective, within reason) so he might have to be careful not to veer too far to that side.

We've all had 'health class'. It's not sex education that people are complaining about, it's the curriculum most seem upset with. 

Of course there's always this. Ben Levine. Don't know what his input was, but the fact that he had input at all, to me is very disturbing. I don't think the liebrals will ever be able to get out from under his cloud, nor will their sex ed program.