North Korea (Superthread)

[The Bread Guy]

Question for discussion:  if the U.S. strikes back, does it HAVE to be nuke on the first go-round?

Also, for the record, the "we've got plans for Guam" statement (source - with CAVEATS re:  PRK getting your IP or "sharing" nasty things) - screen capture from PRK Ministry of Foreign Affairs attached.

KPA Will Take Practical Action: Commander of Strategic Force
Posted on: 2017-08-10
Categories: News

General Kim Rak Gyom, commander of the Strategic Force of the Korean People’s Army, released the following statement on August 9:

As already clarified, the Strategic Force of the KPA is seriously examining the plan for an enveloping strike at Guam through simultaneous fire of four Hwasong-12 intermediate-range strategic ballistic rockets in order to interdict the enemy forces on major military bases on Guam and to signal a crucial warning to the U.S.

On Tuesday, the KPA Strategic Force through a statement of its spokesman fully warned the U.S. against its all-round sanctions on the DPRK and moves of maximizing military threats to it. But the U.S. president at a gold links again let out a load of nonsense about “fire and fury,” failing to grasp the on-going grave situation. This is extremely getting on the nerves of the infuriated Hwasong artillerymen of the KPA.

It seems that he has not yet understood the statement.

Sound dialogue is not possible with such a guy bereft of reason and only absolute force can work on him. This is the judgment made by the service personnel of the KPA Strategic Force.

The military action the KPA is about to take will be an effective remedy for restraining the frantic moves of the U.S. in the southern part of the Korean peninsula and its vicinity.

The Hwasong artillerymen of the KPA Strategic Force are replete with a strong determination to fully demonstrate once again the invincible might of the force, which has developed into a reliable nuclear force of the Workers’ Party of Korea and the world’s strongest strike service, through the planned enveloping strike targeting the U.S. imperialist bases of aggression.

The Strategic Force is also considering the plan for opening to public the historic enveloping fire at Guam, a practical action targeting the U.S. bases of aggression.

This unprecedented step is to give stronger confidence in certain victory and courage to the Korean people and help them witness the wretched plight of the U.S. imperialists.

The Hwasong-12 rockets to be launched by the KPA will cross the sky above Shimane, Hiroshima and Koichi Prefectures of Japan. They will fly 3 356.7 km for 1 065 seconds and hit the waters 30 to 40 km away from Guam.

The KPA Strategic Force will finally complete the plan until mid August and report it to the commander-in-chief of the DPRK nuclear force and wait for his order.

We keep closely watching the speech and behavior of the U.S.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Sounds like a job for seal team 6

Suicide mission with little hope for success, there is very little HUMIT in NK and it's unlikely he be broadcasting from his location and as I mentioned likley a couple body doubles. Being paranoid is the normal there. I would not be wanting to be at a large naval or airforce base if the US decides to strike.

 

[The Bread Guy]

In case it wasn't already clear, this from SecDef Mattis ...

The United States and our allies have the demonstrated capabilities and unquestionable commitment to defend ourselves from an attack. Kim Jong Un should take heed of the United Nations Security Council’s unified voice, and statements from governments the world over, who agree the DPRK poses a threat to global security and stability.  The DPRK must choose to stop isolating itself and stand down its pursuit of nuclear weapons.  The DPRK should cease any consideration of actions that would lead to the end of its regime and the destruction of its people.

President Trump was informed of the growing threat last December and on taking office his first orders to me emphasized the readiness of our ballistic missile defense and nuclear deterrent forces. While our State Department is making every effort to resolve this global threat through diplomatic means, it must be noted that the combined allied militaries now possess the most precise, rehearsed and robust defensive and offensive capabilities on Earth.  The DPRK regime’s actions will continue to be grossly overmatched by ours and would lose any arms race or conflict it initiates.

 

[Edward Campbell]

While I do believe that Kim Jong-un is a fruitcake ~ most likely a paranoid megalomaniac, I doubt that he is actually suicidal. I suspect he is "negotiating" in the only way that he and the US congress seem able to manage. (Remember that, a few years ago, the DPRK and a US administration made a deal but the US congress promptly refused to honour it when the time came to send energy supplies to the DPRK.) My worry is that, as the old saying goes, "there's many a slip 'twixt the cup and the lip," and someone, a DPRK general, might misinterpret orders from Pyongyang (or wherever the fruitcake's version of the führerbunker is located) and launch an attack on Guam or even Alaska.

I think the US has the means to (quickly) plan and launch a well coordinated, very heavy, conventional attack on the DPRK ... but not before the DPRK fires tens of thousands of artillery shells into Seoul, creating, perhaps, a Hamburg like firestorm that will kill tens or even hundreds of thousands of South Koreans. I'm not sure anyone wants to pay that price.

I agree with John Bolton: the only solution is to reunify the Koreas, and I explained,yesterday, what I believe the price for that might be.

 

[Journeyman]

I think  the US has the means to (quickly) plan and launch a well coordinated, very heavy, conventional attack on the DPRK ...

Assuming.... that the current President doesn't have a greater interest in getting into the history books as "the  guy who nuked the Evil Empire."*


* Evil Empire 2.0 -- Trump version, not Reagan's

 

[7thghoul]

Suicide mission with little hope for success, there is very little HUMIT in NK and it's unlikely he be broadcasting from his location and as I mentioned likley a couple body doubles. Being paranoid is the normal there. I would not be wanting to be at a large naval or airforce base if the US decides to strike.

aha sorry I was just kidding about that. Should've made that clearer. Obviously there's not a clear cut solution when it comes to Kim Jong Un.

 

[dimsum]

I think the US has the means to (quickly) plan and launch a well coordinated, very heavy, conventional attack on the DPRK ...

As long as the planners and trigger-pullers aren't any of these folks, we (in Canada) are good. 

http://www.edge.ca/2017/08/09/americans-tell-us-where-they-think-north-korea-is-on-an-unlabeled-world-map/?sc_ref=facebook

 

[GR66]

I doubt North Korea would be crazy enough to actually launch a nuclear missile.  If they did, while a very heavy US conventional response may be possible (preferable?) I suspect that President Trump could quite possibly lean toward a nuclear option.  Possibly a larger nuke(s) to take out North Korea's missile and underground nuclear facilities and possibly low yield nukes against their main air, army and naval bases to eliminate the bulk of their offensive conventional capabilities. 

Such a strong response would be as much a message to other potential nuclear states (Iran) to make perfectly clear that a WMD attack on the US or it's allies means the end of your existence as a nation.  It would also demonstrate to Russia and China that while the US might be reluctant to fight back against some types of military provocation, there is a firm line that cannot be crossed.

Not saying that I favour a nuclear response to a NK nuclear missile launch, but just suggesting a possible response from the US.

To me a more likely problem would be if NK goes ahead with their "enveloping fire" plan against Guam.  How reliable and accurate are the NK missiles?  If one of them goes off target and instead of landing 40km from the island it actually hits the island, what will the US response be?  The US wouldn't be able to ignore a ballistic missile attack on their territory, but what kind of response could they make which doesn't risk general war with North Korea?  All the economic leavers have already been pulled short of enforcing a blockade...but how do you seal the NK/China border?

 

[mariomike]

It would also demonstrate to Russia and China that while the US might be reluctant to fight back against some types of military provocation, there is a firm line that cannot be crossed.

Sounds eerily similar to the briefing notes for Dresden.

",and incidentally to show the Russians when they arrive what Bomber Command can do."

 

[MilEME09]

I doubt North Korea would be crazy enough to actually launch a nuclear missile.  If they did, while a very heavy US conventional response may be possible (preferable?) I suspect that President Trump could quite possibly lean toward a nuclear option.  Possibly a larger nuke(s) to take out North Korea's missile and underground nuclear facilities and possibly low yield nukes against their main air, army and naval bases to eliminate the bulk of their offensive conventional capabilities. 

Such a strong response would be as much a message to other potential nuclear states (Iran) to make perfectly clear that a WMD attack on the US or it's allies means the end of your existence as a nation.  It would also demonstrate to Russia and China that while the US might be reluctant to fight back against some types of military provocation, there is a firm line that cannot be crossed.

Given the B61-12 which is technically still in development has reported to have a variable yield, and can be used as a earth penetration it makes it the perfect candidate for a low yield tactical nuclear strike on strategic targets. Problem is you are now using a an experimental weapon to target NK's potentially unstable nuclear stock pile, the potential fallout of the destruction of the NK stockpile with a nuclear device could be catastrophic. 

 

[Fishbone Jones]

There's other ways to ensure a strategic target contamination, to make it unusable, than an atomic option. Perhaps the US will go in that direction.

 

[George Wallace]

.......... A Chinese invasion is not impossible, but ~ look at the maps ~ it's not a cakewalk, either. The Yalu River is a formidable obstacle and I believe the the DPRK has made all the bridges into reserved demolitions. The DPRK's army is HUGE ~ maybe poorly equipped, ineptly led and inadequately equipped, but it's BIG; the PLA is being restructured, made smaller and much more professional, but more suited to global operations, and less suited to a man-on-man slugging match or artillery duel against North Korea.

At the same time, could one not think of the Yalu River as North Korea's "Maginot Line" and easily bypassed by Airborne and Amphibious troops?

 

[7thghoul]

PM Turnbull of Australia officially backs the US should conflict arise between US and North Korea under the ANZUS Treaty.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/11/turnbull-pledges-support-to-us

 

[The Bread Guy]

An interesting op-ed from the Chinese Communist Party's media - highlights mine - shared under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act (R.S.C., 1985, c. C-42) ...

Reckless game over the Korean Peninsula runs risk of real war
Global Times Published: 2017/8/10 23:23:40

The US and North Korea have both ramped up their threatening rhetoric. The Pentagon has prepared plans for B-1B strategic bombers to make preemptive strikes on North Korea's missile sites. US Secretary of Defense James Mattis issued an ultimatum to North Korea on Wednesday to "cease any consideration of actions that would lead to the end of its regime and destruction of its people."

Meanwhile, North Korea issued plans to fire four intermediate-range missiles to land 30-40 kilometers from Guam and claimed it would finalize the plan by mid-August.

Some people in Guam have already expressed panic for the first time after the end of the Cold War. The US has already got the worst of the confrontation with North Korea.

Many people believe the possibility of war is very low. If war really breaks out, the US can hardly reap any strategic harvest and North Korea will face unprecedented risks. North Korea aims to propel the US to negotiate with it, while the US wants to put North Korea in check. Neither can achieve its goal, so they compete to escalate tensions, but neither wants to take the initiative to launch a war.

The real danger is that such a reckless game may lead to miscalculations and a strategic "war." That is to say, neither Washington nor Pyongyang really wants war, but a war could break out anyway as they do not have the experience of putting such an extreme game under control.

In the near future, it would be highly sensitive if US B-1B fighter jets fly over the Korean Peninsula or North Korea launches missiles in the direction of Guam. Both sides would upgrade their alert to the highest level. The uncertainty in the Korean Peninsula is growing.

Beijing is not able to persuade Washington or Pyongyang to back down at this time. It needs to make clear its stance to all sides and make them understand that when their actions jeopardize China's interests, China will respond with a firm hand.

China should also make clear that if North Korea launches missiles that threaten US soil first and the US retaliates, China will stay neutral. If the US and South Korea carry out strikes and try to overthrow the North Korean regime and change the political pattern of the Korean Peninsula, China will prevent them from doing so.

China opposes both nuclear proliferation and war in the Korean Peninsula. It will not encourage any side to stir up military conflict, and will firmly resist any side which wants to change the status quo of the areas where China's interests are concerned. It is hoped that both Washington and Pyongyang can exercise restraint. The Korean Peninsula is where the strategic interests of all sides converge, and no side should try to be the absolute dominator of the region.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Evacuate all the families of service personal from Korea, that would send more of a message of how serious you are then any flight. Then start sealifting ammunition and supplies.

 

[tomahawk6]

Fake news. This is classic SOP for the DPRK to threaten until the West caves and payoff the regime.We are at this juncture because Clinton in 1999 made a deal with Kim Jong Il where they would discontinue their nuclear program. The fact that the North has nukes is not new either or that they have acheived miniaturization. Dont forget that they have been working closely with Iran. Iran has the better missile tech and the North has nukes so all we need is for Iran to show that they can place a nuke on one of their missiles. Still worried about North Korea ?

 

[SeaKingTacco]

Fake news. This is classic SOP for the DPRK to threaten until the West caves and payoff the regime.We are at this juncture because Clinton in 1999 made a deal with Kim Jong Il where they would discontinue their nuclear program. The fact that the North has nukes is not new either or that they have acheived miniaturization. Dont forget that they have been working closely with Iran. Iran has the better missile tech and the North has nukes so all we need is for Iran to show that they can place a nuke on one of their missiles. Still worried about North Korea ?

What if this is all a smoke screen? A mis-direction? What if the Iranians are paying the North Koreans to do their nuclear program? Who is watching the Iranians right now?

 

[tomahawk6]

What if this is all a smoke screen? A mis-direction? What if the Iranians are paying the North Koreans to do their nuclear program? Who is watching the Iranians right now?

Mossad

 

[brihard]

The Iranians are fundamentally rational. Yes, they are a rival bordering on enemy, but they have a productive, intelligent, reasonably educated population and a large global diaspora. Iranians have a sense of what's going on in the world and where they fit. Iranians can keep Iran in check and know that their interests cease being served by confrontation pst a certain point.

DPRK's population, conversely, is possessed of extremely limited awareness of the real state of affairs. Information is so controlled, the state is so completely enmeshed in day to day life, that the population is far less able to meaningfully restrain its government. The regime is able to call all the shots.

Unfortunately the DPRK regime is, at absolute best, behaving in such a manner as to appear irrational as their own deterrent. More dangerously, they may actually believe their own propaganda and BS- the may have stated into the abyss long enough for it to be staring back. Like a desperate gambler at the roulette wheel, they're doubling their bet with each consecutive loss, hoping to make their original bet back if they keep going long enough, but not recognizing they can only afford one or two more spins before they're broke.

I lithe Trump. He disgusts me in every way. On this issue however, he's playing hardball in a way no prior president has. It may be that that is the only way to deter the brinksmanship- "fine, keep lipping off, but you throw a punch, we destroy your capability to throw another one. You launch a nuke, we turn you to glass".

It remains to be seen whether North Korea can recognize in time that the rule book, on our side, has been rewritten under the new US presidency.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

NK will sell their nuke tech to whoever pays, Pakistan's Khan was working to give nuke tech to other Sunni Nations, so likely Pakistan will supply KSA with the nuke tech when needed and NK will sell theirs to Iran. Iran will use theirs as deterrence and a cover while they exert direct action through their proxy forces.