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North Korea (Superthread)

President Trump has been very consistent with other messages like immigration, jobs and trade for decades, perhaps it is worth a look at his position on the DPRK:

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/leahbarkoukis/2017/08/09/flashback-heres-what-trump-told-tim-russert-in-1999-about-launching-preemptive-strike-against-nk-n2366459?utm_source=thdailypm&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=nl_pm&newsletterad=

Flashback: Here's What Trump Told Tim Russert in 1999 About Launching a Preemptive Strike Against NK
Leah Barkoukis Leah Barkoukis |Posted: Aug 09, 2017 8:30 AM 

Tim Russert interviewing @realDonaldTrump in 1999 about launching a pre-emptive strike against North Korea.
Could be key to his thinking. pic.twitter.com/PRbDA9r6Jp
— Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) June 20, 2017

"You say ... as president, you would be willing to launch a preemptive strike against North Korea's nuclear capability,” Russert said.

"First I'd negotiate. I would negotiate like crazy,” Trump responded. “And I'd make sure that we tried to get the best deal possible. Look, Tim. If a man walks up to you on a street in Washington, because this doesn't happen, of course, in New York ... and puts a gun to your head and says give me your money, wouldn't you rather know where he's coming from before he had the gun in his hand?”

Trump went on to say the biggest threat the world faced was nuclear proliferation. He also stressed the importance of solving the problem then—nearly 20 years ago.

"Taking out their nuclear potential would create a fallout," Russert pointed out.

"Tim, do you know that this country gave them nuclear reactors, free fuel for 10 years. We virtually tried to bribe them into stopping and they're continuing to do what they're doing. And they're laughing at us, they think we're a bunch of dummies. I'm saying that we have to do something to stop," Trump replied.

“You want to do it in five years when they have warheads all over the place, every one of them pointing to New York City, to Washington and every one of our -- is that when you want to do it? Or do you want to do something now?” Trump added.

The interview resurfaced after President Trump threatened Pyongyang with “fire and fury like the world has never seen” if the rogue regime continues making threats.
 
Japan deployed its Patriot missile defence system on Saturday (Aug 12), after North Korea threatened to fire ballistic missiles over the country towards the US Pacific territory of Guam, local officials and reports said.

http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/japan-deploys-missile-defence-over-north-korea-threat-to-guam-reports

Anyone heard where China stands on the issue with Guam? So far it seems they're playing it very neutral with the goal of maintaining stability in the region. I assume the way things are going if this Guam launch does indeed take place that the US will at least strike back. This of course draws Australia (and potentially us? UK?) into conflict or high readiness for conflict with NK.
 
Upthread there's a posting that describes China's intent:

Beijing is not able to persuade Washington or Pyongyang to back down at this time. It needs to make clear its stance to all sides and make them understand that when their actions jeopardize China's interests, China will respond with a firm hand.

China should also make clear that if North Korea launches missiles that threaten US soil first and the US retaliates, China will stay neutral. If the US and South Korea carry out strikes and try to overthrow the North Korean regime and change the political pattern of the Korean Peninsula, China will prevent them from doing so.

China opposes both nuclear proliferation and war in the Korean Peninsula. It will not encourage any side to stir up military conflict, and will firmly resist any side which wants to change the status quo of the areas where China's interests are concerned. It is hoped that both Washington and Pyongyang can exercise restraint. The Korean Peninsula is where the strategic interests of all sides converge, and no side should try to be the absolute dominator of the region.

That seems pretty clear to me.
 
7thghoul said:
Anyone heard where China stands on the issue with Guam? So far it seems they're playing it very neutral with the goal of maintaining stability in the region. I assume the way things are going if this Guam launch does indeed take place that the US will at least strike back. This of course draws Australia (and potentially us? UK?) into conflict or high readiness for conflict with NK.

From yesterdays Washington Post:

China won’t come to North Korea’s help if it launches missiles threatening U.S. soil and there is retaliation, a state-owned newspaper warned on Friday, but it would intervene if Washington strikes first.

More at Link
 
http://archive.is/lXxhw

for discussion: Is North Korea's threat more nuclear, or conventional?

Contrary to what you may think, North Korea’s nuclear threat isn’t what most people should be worried about. It’s actually its artillery and conventional missiles, scattered all around the Korean Peninsula, that are the real threat. Even the sneakiest pre-emptive strike from the US-South Korean military forces couldn’t take all of these out in time for Seoul and parts of Japan to suffer from retaliatory strikes by the DPRK.
 
7thghoul said:
http://archive.is/lXxhw

for discussion: Is North Korea's threat more nuclear, or conventional?

Good question. Don't forget only 1/3 of Seoul is under direct threat by artillery, and if the hostilities open with an allied time on target strike, a great deal of the artillery, rockets and the logistical support for them to work will be eliminated very quickly. I suspect that this is considered acceptable since the ABM interceptor networks established by the ROK, Japan and the US (particularly the US Navy ships patrolling off the coast) will now have  a very limited set of threats to deal with in any retaliatory strikes. Going after the logistical and C3 nodes will be extremely effective against the DPRK's remaining forces, since they are still largely 2GW forces with far less flexibility than the conventional forces facing then from the ROK and US side of the DMZ.

The real wild cards will be the DPRK's special forces, particularly those infiltrated into the ROK prior to any hostilities commencing, and whatever WMD remain in the possession of the DPRK after a time on target strike. I imagine the ROK, United States and anyone else involved are working overtime to locate as much as possible and reduce the uncertainty created by the existence of DPRK unconventional capabilities.
 
Well, well, well ...
The secret to North Korea’s ICBM success
How has North Korea managed to make such astounding progress with its long-range missile programme over the last two years? Here, Michael Elleman shares the first solid evidence that North Korea has acquired a high-performance liquid-propellant engine from illicit networks in Russia and Ukraine.
Date: 14 August 2017
By Michael Elleman, Senior Fellow for Missile Defence, International Institute for Strategic Studies


North Korea’s missile programme has made astounding strides over the past two years. An arsenal that had been based on short- and medium-range missiles along with an intermediate-range Musudan that repeatedly failed flight tests, has suddenly been supplemented by two new missiles: the intermediate-range Hwasong-12 and the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), Hwasong-14. No other country has transitioned from a medium-range capability to an ICBM in such a short time. What explains this rapid progression? The answer is simple. North Korea has acquired a high-performance liquid-propellant engine (LPE) from a foreign source.

Available evidence clearly indicates that the LPE is based on the Soviet RD-250 family of engines, and has been modified to operate as the boosting force for the Hwasong-12 and -14. An unknown number of these engines were probably acquired though illicit channels operating in Russia and/or Ukraine. North Korea’s need for an alternative to the failing Musudan and the recent appearance of the RD-250 engine along with other evidence, suggests the transfers occurred within the past two years ...
More @ link - also attached if link doesn't work for you.
 

Attachments

A somewhat more positive interpretation of the US efforts:

http://observer.com/2017/08/donald-trump-north-korea-diplomatic-military-strategy/

Trump’s Full-Court Press Is Squeezing the Nukes Out of North Korea
The hermit kingdom is starting to blink now that China isn’t its shield
By Austin Bay • 08/14/17 8:00am
   
In March of this year, the Trump foreign policy team of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis, and the Tweeter-in-Chief himself began a coordinated attack on Kim Jong-un’s regime, with the interim goals of disrupting its political and military plans, psychologically rattling its leaders, and exposing the regime’s grave weaknesses. The ultimate goal was to set conditions for achieving the long-range goal: denuclearizing the Korean peninsula.

The great Chinese strategist Sun Tzu said that the best strategy is to attack the enemy’s plans. With a soldier-scholar like Jim Mattis in the Trump administration, a stroke or two of Sun Tzu should surprise no one.

As a result, the Trump team is taking diplomatic, economic and military actions—not drawing feckless rhetorical red lines. Its actions are seizing the initiative, limiting the enemy’s options, and exploiting the enemy’s weakness. These actions are designed to force the thugs in Pyongyang to ditch their nuclear weapons and quietly rot within the starving confines of their Communist gulag.

* * *

We aren’t engaged in a game. This is the latest phase of the Korean War. Though war is not a sport, some sports analogies are instructive. Basketball’s full-court press is a defensive attack on the offense’s “plan” to score—which would be a sportscaster’s description of the Trump administration’s North Korea policy. In basketball, teams employ a relentless full-court press to degrade an opponent’s ability to move the ball, deny easy shot attempts, and disrupt shots the opponent takes. “Pressing” teams try to force their opponents to make mistakes that lead to turnovers. A sustained press that forces mistakes dispirits an opponent.

The U.S. can do more than run an aggressive defense. America, when it decides to use it, has the premier global offense. North Korea cannot “press” American power; it can only provoke it.

And it has provoked America to the point that Trump is promising fire and fury.

* * *

Employing diplomacy, economic power, military power and information power (the ability to gather and communicate intelligence) in concert is a geo-strategic full-court press.

The acronym for the four elements of geo-strategic power is DIME: “Diplomatic,” “Information,” “Military” and “Economic” power. Coordinating these elements creates a synergistic force whose sum is greater than its parts. I explained this to an eighth grade history class and the kids got it. Diplomacy was my index finger, Information the middle finger, Military the ring finger, and Economic power the little finger. Individually, the fingers poke, but together they form a fist.

I showed the kids my fist and threw a punch in the air. I told them that in other circumstances this wasn’t a weapon but a grip on a tool. They got that, too.

Unfortunately, coordinating the elements of power is very difficult. The U.S. government’s civilian agencies don’t play well together—protecting their budgets and their political turf in the Washington swamp is their first priority. So in the field the military does it all ad hoc. Company, field grade and general officers become diplomats in helmets. Combat engineers are developmental aid experts.

* * *

Yet the Trump administration is using all elements of power in a coordinated effort to denuclearize the Korean peninsula.

Start with the D for Diplomacy. The U.S. has forged a solid alliance committed to Korean denuclearization. The U.S., Japan, South Korea and Australia are the principle front line nations, but western European nations and key members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) add economic and political weight. India is in the background. China is the man in middle, and it knows India is in the background.

All of the east and southeast Asian nations have a common security interest in denuclearization: They are already in range of North Korean missiles.

U.S. diplomats have also succeeded in getting the UN to impose harsh economic and political sanctions on North Korea.

I for Information began in earnest with Tillerson’s declaration that the era of strategic patience with the Kim regime is over. Trump’s threats of fury and fire mock Kim Jong-un. Yes, Trump outraged the pearl-clutchers in the American foreign policy establishment. American presidents aren’t supposed to talk like that!

Except they do. Take Harry Truman for example.

The theater of threat is a key element in North Korea’s intimidation and extortion routine. Trump’s fiery threat pushed Kim Jong-un off center stage. Now Trump has the rhetorical threat initiative, not the fat kid.

Trump also has a track record for following through on a threat. In April, he punished Syrian President Bashir al-Assad for using chemical weapons. Trump isn’t seeking a legacy like Bill Clinton; he isn’t bogged down in Iraq like George Bush; and he isn’t a faculty lounge poseur like Barack Obama touting red lines then failing to back words with deeds. Trump has demonstrated that he will act. That’s important information from the bad cop.

This information is a suavely packaged threat from the good cops: National Security Adviser Lieutenant General H.R. McMaster told ABC News “…We are not closer to war than a week ago, but we are closer to war than we were a decade ago.”

This information adds spine to the bad cop and good cops’ coercive diplomacy: Pyongyang’s insistent violation of previous deals and arrangements has left Washington, Tokyo and Seoul with nil interest in conceding anything to the dictatorship, but particularly on the issues of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles.

M for Military: The U.S. and its allies have massive and modern forces. They are full spectrum forces employing everything from the bayonet to ballistic missiles, anti-ballistic missiles and cyber weapons. South Korea’s ground forces are highly-trained and well led. Japan has quietly developed offensive strike capabilities. The allies have deployed a missile defense “thin shield” that is capable of shooting down a volley of North Korean IRBMs. Trump would use the entire arsenal if he had to, and China knows this.

E is for Economic, meaning sanctions and financial restrictions. However, the most pertinent policy tool can be summarized in a tweet. Recall that Trump indicated China would have a better trade deal if it helped curb North Korea.

How is the Trump team managing to pull it off? Here’s my guess: Trump and Tillerson aren’t from the D.C. swamp. Mattis was a combat soldier who also served as a diplomat with a helmet.

* *  *

America wants China to add additional pressure. It believes China has the power to squeeze the nukes out of North Korea.

But China has its own interests—some of which conflict with U.S. interests. For example, U.S. and Chinese interests conflict in the South China Sea. On August 7, the U.S., Australia and Japan urged ASEAN to create a “South China Sea code of conduct” defining rules for resolving disputes in the region that are “legally binding, meaningful, effective, and consistent with international law.” The three nations emphasized their “strong opposition to coercive unilateral actions,” which is a direct slap at Beijing. It appears the deal being offered does not demand that China withdraw from its man-made islets.

China knows it can ill-afford a trade war with the U.S., Japan and Europe. This code of conduct amounts to a “semi-win-win” if everyone in the region agrees to it and lives by it. It is an example of coordinated diplomacy to encourage China to help denuclearize North Korea—and help itself economically and politically.

* * *

Has the Trump pressure strategy produced positive results?

North Korea has blinked, but the sensationalist mainstream media, from The New York Times to CNN, have missed it.

But the sharp minds at 38north.org didn’t. They reported, “Anyone familiar with the North’s statements knows that over the past month there has been a major shift in Pyongyang’s formulation about negotiating.”

Yet CNN quoted North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho as saying “…We will, under no circumstances, put the nukes and ballistic rockets on the negotiating table…”

38north provided the correction:

“Unless the hostile policy and nuclear threat of the U.S. against the D.P.R.K. are fundamentally eliminated, we, under no circumstances, will put the nukes and ballistic rockets on the negotiating table and will not flinch even an inch away from our path of strengthening of the nuclear forces, which is chosen by ourselves.”

To interpret Pyongyang’s statement as the “we just might talk about getting rid of the nukes” signal it is requires that the interpreter possess certain skills.  The interpreter must know the relevant history, have common sense (a skill related to historical knowledge), pay close attention to current developments, and maintain an open mind free of ideological and emotional-political distortion. Unfortunately, the contemporary U.S. mainstream media fall short in all four skill sets.

Responding to Trump’s rhetorical fireworks, Kim threatened to fire missiles at Guam. Remember, Guam is U.S. soil.

It’s where America’s day begins.

Following that North Korean threat, Australian prime minister Malcolm Turnbull said his country would immediately come to the aid of the U.S. if North Korea attacks Guam.

Japan announced it may intercept the North Korean missiles with anti-ballistic missiles.

But here’s the big news: now China is warning North Korea that it’s on its own “if it launches missiles threatening U.S. soil and there is retaliation…” China, however, “would intervene if Washington strikes first. ”

China is clearly separating itself from the Kim regime and saying it will not defend North Korea if North Korea attacks U.S. territory. China is no longer North Korea’s shield.

Did Trump’s in-your-face provoke Kim into a rhetorical threat that went too far, one that led to the Chinese warning? Fair question to ask.

When you read or hear so-called experts argue it’s too late to stop North Korea from obtaining operational nuclear weapons—turn the channel or cancel your subscription. The suits are spewing tripe.

* * *

Blinking is a good sign, but it isn’t retreat.

In an article that appeared in The Observer on July 11, I sketched the administration’s six options for courses of action.

In the last month, we’ve seen Option 1 (another “do the right thing” bid to Beijing) pursued with a stroke or two from Option 2 (coercive diplomacy directed at China).

The interim results have reduced but not eliminated the need for Option 6 (delayed reprisal and the war to denuclearize).

However, the threat to Guam increases the probability the Trump administration will employ Option 4:

“Return of serve. This is an operation that could support several diplomatic options. The U.S., South Korea and Japan could use their ABMs to intercept every North Korean test launch. They might also employ cyber warfare to disrupt tests (perhaps they have already done so). The objective of ‘Return of Serve’ is to stymie the test program and embarrass Kim Jong-un.“

Get in his face and block his shots. Pressure basketball? No, pressure diplomacy to stop a nuclear war
 
milnews.ca said:
Well, well, well ...
The secret to North Korea’s ICBM success
How has North Korea managed to make such astounding progress with its long-range missile programme over the last two years? Here, Michael Elleman shares the first solid evidence that North Korea has acquired a high-performance liquid-propellant engine from illicit networks in Russia and Ukraine ...
Ukraine's response so far?
Oleksandr Turchynov: Ukrainian defense-industrial complex did not supply weapons and military technology to North Korea
Organization of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, 14 Aug 2017

Ukraine has always adhered to all its international commitments, therefore, Ukrainian defense and aerospace complex did not supply weapons and military technology to North Korea. This was stated by Secretary of the NSDC of Ukraine Oleksandr Turchynov in his comment.

According to him, some foreign media began to distribute false information regarding the transfer of missile technology to North Korea by "Yuzhmash".

"This information is not based on any grounds, provocative by its content, and most likely provoked by Russian secret services to cover their own crimes", - Mr. Turchynov said.

He stressed that Ukraine considers the regime of North Korea "totalitarian, dangerous and unpredictable, and supports all sanctions against this country". "As well as sanctions against the Russian Federation, the regime of which becomes increasingly similar to the North Korean", - Mr. Turchynov noted adding that since the outbreak of Russian aggression against our country in 2014, "Ukraine completely stopped supplying weapons, military equipment, and military technology to Russia".

"Ukraine has never supplied rocket engines and any missile technology to North Korea. We believe that this anti-Ukrainian campaign was triggered by Russian secret services to cover their participation in the North Korean nuclear and missile programs", - Secretary of the NSDC of Ukraine summarized.
The company's denial/response is also attached.
 

Attachments

And this from the PRK info-machine (no link included to avoid having to link there, but full screen capture attached):
Kim Jong Un Inspects KPA Strategic Force Command

Pyongyang, August 15 (KCNA) -- Respected Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un inspected the Command of the Strategic Force of the Korean People's Army (KPA) on Aug. 14.

He waved back to enthusiastically cheering service members and posed for a picture with them.

He went round historical mementoes and data displayed at the Kimilsungism-Kimjongilism Study Hall.

Going round them, he looked back with deep emotion on the great leadership feats of the brilliant commanders of Mt. Paektu, recorded on every page of the history of the KPA Strategic Force displaying its might with the strength unprecedented in the world as a powerful strike service, symbolic of the dignity and power of Korea.

Then he listened to General Kim Rak Gyom's decision on the Strategic Force's plan for an enveloping fire at Guam at the command post.

He examined the plan for a long time and discussed it with the commanding officers in real earnest.

He praised the KPA Strategic Force for drawing up a close and careful plan as planned and intended by the Party and examined the firing preparations for power demonstration.

After listening to the commander of the Strategic Force that it is waiting for the order of the Party Central Committee after rounding off the preparations for the enveloping fire at Guam, he said with great satisfaction that the spirit of Hwasong artillerymen is very high and he was freshly determined, seeing by himself the combat preparedness and the sky-high spirit of the Hwasong artillerymen of the large combined unit.

He said that the U.S. imperialists caught the noose around their necks due to their reckless military confrontation racket, adding that he would watch a little more the foolish and stupid conduct of the Yankees spending a hard time of every minute of their miserable lot.

He said that he wants to advise the U.S., which is driving the situation on the Korean peninsula into the touch-and-go situation, running helter-skelter, to take into full account gains and losses with clear head whether the prevailing situation is more unfavorable for any party.

In order to defuse the tensions and prevent the dangerous military conflict on the Korean peninsula, it is necessary for the U.S. to make a proper option first and show it through action, as it committed provocations after introducing huge nuclear strategic equipment into the vicinity of the peninsula, he said, adding that the U.S. should stop at once arrogant provocations against the DPRK and unilateral demands and not provoke it any longer.

He said that if the Yankees persist in their extremely dangerous reckless actions on the Korean peninsula and in its vicinity, testing the self-restraint of the DPRK, the latter will make an important decision as it already declared, warning the U.S. that it should think reasonably and judge properly not to suffer shame that it is hit by the DPRK again.

He said that if the planned fire of power demonstration is carried out as the U.S. is going more reckless, it will be the most delightful historic moment when the Hwasong artillerymen will wring the windpipes of the Yankees and point daggers at their necks, underlining the need to be always ready for launching to go into action anytime once our Party decides.

Looking round a military training school and gymnasium, he called for firmly establishing Juche in education and steadily improving the quality of military training and thus preparing all the artillerymen of the large combined units to be fighters capable of waging campaign of brains, who perfectly mastered the modern military science and technology, the enemy's changed war methods and Korean-style war methods against them.

He underscored the need to certainly establish the system of reeducating commanding officers and technicians of the Strategic Force in line with the modernization and upgrading of ballistic rockets.

Going round the supply service facilities of the large combined unit including the dining hall of sub-unit, he took warm care of the solders' life as their real father would do.

He enjoyed a performance given by the art squad of the large combined unit at the solders hall.

He expressed satisfaction over the good performance given by members of the art squad through numbers vividly representing the operational mission and features of the Strategic Force and desire, thoughts and feelings of the Hwasong artillerymen, and gave precious teachings for performance.

The Strategic Force has a very important position and duty in carrying out the strategic plans of the Workers' Party of Korea, he said, stressing the need for the Strategic Force to firmly establish the monolithic leadership system, command and management system of the Supreme Commander over the nuclear force and further complete the Juche-oriented rocket strike methods.

Giving teachings of great trust that he remains confident thanks to the KPA Strategic Force, reliable treasured sword guaranteeing the everlasting future of the country and nation, he expressed expectation and belief that all the officers and men of the Strategic Force would bring about a fresh turn in rounding off combat preparations, bearing in mind the important mission they have assumed before the Party, the country and the people.

The officers and men of the KPA Strategic Force, who received great trust from him, were firmly determined to score the final victory in the standoff with the U.S. by scorching with super strong strike the targets in south Korea, Japan, operational area in the Pacific and the U.S. mainland, flying the sacred red flags of the Party and flags of the supreme commander at every matchless launching pad once he gives an order.

Accompanying him were KPA Vice Marshal Hwang Pyong So, director of the KPA General Political Bureau, and Kim Jong Sik, vice department director of the C.C., the Workers' Party of Korea. -0-
        (2017.08.15)
 

Attachments

  • milnews.ca said:

    They (DPRK) must be using Google "transhate" again:

    "The US Imperialists caught the noose around their necks due to their reckless military confrontation racket ... (but) he would watch a little more the foolish and stupid conduct of the Yankees spending a hard time of every minute of their miserable lot,” the report says.
    “If the planned fire of our demonstration is carried out as the US is going more reckless, it will be the most delightful historic moment when the Hwasong artillerymen will wring the windpipes of the Yankees and point daggers at their necks.”

    Scary guys eh?  The miserable lot of the 7th fleet must be busy today. 
 
Brihard said:
Er... yeah. Thank you. "Lithe" and "Trump" isn't something I should ever combine, lol. Thanks autocorrect.

.... there isn't a pee pee video tape....
 
Cloud Cover said:
They (DPRK) must be using Google "transhate" again ...
No better than early Taliban propaganda, but they were still capable of doing damage ...
Cloud Cover said:
Scary guys eh?  The miserable lot of the 7th fleet must be busy today.
:nod:
 
Hopefully the twisted little midjit has seen that the US is not going to blink first this time, and he may just be talking his country down a path even grimmer than the one it was already on.  Not holding my breath, though.
 
Jong-Un flinched. He was testing Trump, and rapidly got the vibe he wasn't going to be able to do whatever he wanted anymore.
 
Kat Stevens said:
Hopefully the twisted little midjit has seen that the US is not going to blink first this time, and he may just be talking his country down a path even grimmer than the one it was already on.  Not holding my breath, though.
PuckChaser said:
Jong-Un flinched. He was testing Trump, and rapidly got the vibe he wasn't going to be able to do whatever he wanted anymore.
Fingers crossed on both counts ...
 
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