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North Korea (Superthread)

The DIA has concluded that the North has at least one nuclear warhead and possibly more.This might explain Kim's attitude. I think this increases the likelihood of a US pre-emptive strike.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/north-korea-now-making-missile-ready-nuclear-weapons-us-analysts-say/2017/08/08/e14b882a-7b6b-11e7-9d08-b79f191668ed_story.html?utm_term=.aacddee50c24
 
North Korea doesn't appear to have many powerful friends.

Perhaps no one would be especially annoyed if the US started shooting down every missile leaving NK airspace?
 
I don't think anyone who lives in the neighborhood would be too concerned if the mental defective next door with the machine gun were to have a tragic accident.
 
I think the PRC would have to sign off on any US action against the North. If they gave a thumbs up there would be several strings attached like their control of the south china sea and no US forces above the 36th parallel after the regime change.
 
tomahawk6 said:
I think the PRC would have to sign off on any US action against the North. If they gave a thumbs up there would be several strings attached like their control of the south china sea and no US forces above the 36th parallel after the regime change.

I have said before that I think* the Chinese made on offer, years, even decades ago: "Remove US forces from South Korea and we will, very,  very quickly, remove the DPRK's political leadership and encourage the reunification of Korea under a South Korean led, democratic government."

I suspect that the North Korean leadership, one and two steps below the fruitcake, is heavily in the pay of both China and South Korea and wants reunification as much as anyone.

China doesn't want a war, that would send millions of North Koreans across the border, seeking refuge in China. A Chinese invasion is not impossible, but ~ look at the maps ~ it's not a cakewalk, either. The Yalu River is a formidable obstacle and I believe the the DPRK has made all the bridges into reserved demolitions. The DPRK's army is HUGE ~ maybe poorly equipped, ineptly led and inadequately equipped, but it's BIG; the PLA is being restructured, made smaller and much more professional, but more suited to global operations, and less suited to a man-on-man slugging match or artillery duel against North Korea.

China's vital interests are:

    1. Peace and stability on it's borders ~ it has that now;

    2. Ever growing trade with and investment from South Korea ~ it has that now, too.

Why would China want an American attack?
_____
* I have no quotable sources ... just a guess.
 
Kat Stevens said:
I don't think anyone who lives in the neighborhood would be too concerned if the mental defective next door with the machine gun were to have a tragic accident.
You may need to be a bit more specific about who you mean.  :-\
 
milnews.ca said:
... Canada's National Security Advisor is reportedly in PRK (attached from PRK news agency), apparently to discuss releasing a Canadian clergyman detained since 2015.
Notwithstanding everything else going on in the Black Box that is PRK, this visit seems to have worked ...
Screen capture of PRK info-machine announcement in English attached.

In other news, PRK's putting out a stamp celebrating its missile testing while (for all we know) co-ordinates are being punched into U.S. targeting systems as I type (PRK info-machine source - alternate source not linking directly to PRK page). #SmokingPhilatelicCrater?
 

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Obama's Pastor was just as dumb. Of course there is also the Congress member that worried an island would capsize.
 
I get the feeling Trump is trying to find the right button to push to provoke North Korea into a foolish first strike. Which could then allow him to bring China and russia quickly on board military action against the DPRK.
 
A NK first strike would also allow Trump to retaliate without going to Congress for authorization, especially if the strike was aimed at American territory. Considering the apparent small size and total amount of the NK warheads - nominal yield which is nuke talk for the approximate equivalent of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki warheads - a massive response would not be warranted, as if he would consider that for too long. Mind you, it may not take too much to slay the monster.
 
Kim would be long gone from any likely retaliatory strike target before launching a first strike, in fact they most likely would have a double in place where he is expected to be. However if he starts even a limited nuclear exchange, China is going to have his head on a stake for sure. Likely a US nuclear response would be a low yield weapon on a important military target, near the capitol but preferably with winds that blow away from China or SK.
 
I find the strategy interesting. Traditonally, NK's bombastic threats are actually cries for help: they have one of the smallest GDP's and need basic supplies just to feed their population. KJU has tossed the game up however, seeming to actually possess a madness that pushes the boundaries of what his fathers regime would permit. It'll be interesting to see if Un actually decides to trample the bizarro status quo that is North Korean politics and actually attack someone.

I hope he does and the world can put an end to this entire bamboozle of a country. I assume THAAD could shoot down anything he fires this way?

side note, If the US and NK go to war, presumably as was mentioned before -- with China and Russia backing in response to Security Council violations (a nuclear launch from NK) -- would CF fight too or would we even be needed lol.
 
If the Pentagon got the order from Trump,the smart play would be to eliminate Kim. Then see who emerges as the new leader.
 
tomahawk6 said:
If the Pentagon got the order from Trump,the smart play would be to eliminate Kim. Then see who emerges as the new leader.

Gotta find him first. That shitweasel will be two miles underground, or in Caracas slugging down mohitos long before any launch is made.
 
Kat Stevens said:
Gotta find him first. That shitweasel will be two miles underground, or in Caracas slugging down mohitos long before any launch is made.

Sounds like a job for seal team 6
 
7thghoul said:
side note, If the US and NK go to war, presumably as was mentioned before -- with China and Russia backing in response to Security Council violations (a nuclear launch from NK) -- would CF fight too or would we even be needed lol.

The CAF is still part of UN Command, we do send people from time to time to it's HQ, so in theory if Korea goes hot what ever High readiness unit we have in the pipe is loading onto C17, C-130s and what ever else possible. We have no internal strategic sea lift capability so we would need to us American help to get a battle groups equipment over to Korea quickly.
I read an article today (linked below) US intelligence thinks DPRK has atleast 60 nuclear weapons, and attempting to neutralize or secure them would be extremely challenging.

http://americanmilitarynews.com/2017/08/us-intelligence-north-korea-can-now-fit-nuclear-warheads-on-missiles-and-may-have-60-bombs/?utm_medium=facebook&utm_campaign=alt&utm_source=amn
 
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