Justin Trudeau hints at boosting Canada’s military spending

I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[Kirkhill]

Defence in the Canadian Economy

Regular Force: 68,000

DND Civilians: 24,000
Defence Industry Civilians: 36,000
Defence Supplier Civilians: 25,200

Reserve Force: 27,000
Canadian Rangers: 5,200

Applicants for the Regs, Reserves or Rangers - 70,880.

.....

1. 68,000 Regs (+/-) are backed by 117,000 Civilians that are supposed to ensure that they are fed, watered, lodged, clothed, equipped and trained. The 117,000 includes 32,200 civilians who have volunteered to backfill the regs when necessary and assist when they can.

2. The number of people interested in taking the King's shilling has risen. It was roughly 40,000 a year and has jumped to 70,000 last year.

....

Why aren't we signing up everybody with an interest and then sorting them out by fitness and security risk?

Keep high risk individuals at arms-length by offering them employment in the Reserves, possibly even Class C employment during training. Let them prove themselves - their loyalty, their willingness to work with the system, their desire to improve to qualify for higher tiers by improving education or fitness...

And for the "unfit" - How can you make those fitter? If they can't be made fitter can they be employed usefully with their current limitations?

....

I continue to believe that there is a lot of untapped interest that can be harnessed by moving away from total force / universality of service requirements.

I continue to believe that there is a place for an unpaid auxiliary corps of volunteers that can serve as a feeder zone for the Regs and Reserves.

 

[KevinB]

I continue to believe that there is a place for an unpaid auxiliary corps of volunteers that can serve as a feeder zone for the Regs and Reserves.

Yes, they are called Cadets.

 

[Kirkhill]

Yes, they are called Cadets.

Not bad. Extend their age band. We keep kids in school longer. Extend Cadets to the end of University and let non-University types enroll as well.

It could even help if the Cadets were allowed to train to the levels that we were allowed to train to when I was a Cadet (Sea type).

You might even call the senior cadets Auxiliaries. And make use of them.

 

[KevinB]

Not bad. Extend their age band. We keep kids in school longer. Extend Cadets to the end of University and let non-University types enroll as well.

It could even help if the Cadets were allowed to train to the levels that we were allowed to train to when I was a Cadet (Sea type).

You might even call the senior cadets Auxiliaries. And make use of them.

Why, to me you want the Cadets into the PRes as quick as you can, so you get 2 maybe 3 years of High School in the PRes out of them.
Every Cadet serving past 16 is a drain on the PRes.

 

[TangoTwoBravo]

Price of Natural Gas in Alberta - 0.54 CAD/GJ

Market Prices

Natural gas rates for Alberta’s consumers are based on gas prices established through the Natural Gas Exchange (NGX) electronic trading platform.

www.gasalberta.com

Price of Natural Gas in US - 2.7 USD/MMBTU or 3.54 CAD/GJ

Natural gas - Price - Chart - Historical Data - News

Natural gas increased 0.34 USD/MMBtu or 14.53% since the beginning of 2024, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Natural gas - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on November of 2024.

tradingeconomics.com

Price of Natural Gas in Japan - 12.91 USD/MMBTU or 16.93 CAD/GJ

Japan Liquefied Natural Gas Import Price Monthly Trends: Commodity Markets Review | YCharts

In depth view into Japan Liquefied Natural Gas Import Price including historical data from 1977 to 2024, charts and stats.

ycharts.com

Price of Natural Gas in UK - 1.07 GBP/therm or 18.17 CAD/GJ

UK Natural Gas - Price - Chart - Historical Data - News

UK Gas increased 27.17 GBp/Thm or 33.67% since the beginning of 2024, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. UK Natural Gas - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on November of 2024.

tradingeconomics.com

Buy at 50 cents.
Sell at $18.00

But there is no business case.

....

I'm not saying there wouldn't be pain. I am saying that we should use the pain to our advantage.

If you re looking at consumer prices then you have to think about all the components, including transportation and domestic taxes. I think that at least 20% of that UK price comes from a direct consumption tax. Its fine to say you would "buy" the gas at .50 cents, but you can't just e-transfer it to the UK and charge $18. You have to get it there, and that might just cost money.

Over half of the petroleum products that the US imports comes from Canada, most of that through pipelines that run North-South in the West where our oil is. Our products are not imported because we are nice, but because it is being offered at a competitive price, especially for US mid-west sectors that use petroleum and have a harder time getting it domestically. The US is a net-energy exporter, but they are also a vast regional country where oil in one area may not be easy to get to another. So tariffs will result in higher prices that get passed to the consumer.

The UK relies on imports for roughly half of its natural gas. Most of that comes from Norway through pipelines. The US has stepped-in with LNG shipments to offset the embargo on Russian gas, but the US has those production facilities on the East coast. Geography matters! I am neither an economist nor a businessman, but I do think that there is a case to be made for the export of Canadian LNG to Europe. That would require substantial infrastructure, and I am not sure where the break-even is. Perhaps we will see a shift towards that. Its tough-sledding these days to propose fossil-fuel projects! Might change when voters are looking at not having oil for heating or mobility...

 

[Kirkhill]

LNG Terminals over the world: Complete list and map 2024

The emergence of the natural gas industry has paved the way for the development of an intricate network of LNG terminals across the globe.

www.asap.nl

What was that Gretzky line about the shot you never take?

 

[Kirkhill]

Why, to me you want the Cadets into the PRes as quick as you can, so you get 2 maybe 3 years of High School in the PRes out of them.
Every Cadet serving past 16 is a drain on the PRes.

We had 70,000 applicants. The CF only wanted 4000 for the Regs, Reserves and Rangers.

I want the other 66,000. Or the other 36,000 if only 40,000 are interested. And I want them for life.

Danish Home Guard - 18 to 60 = 42 years of 30,000 = 1,260,000 Volunteers.

 

[KevinB]

We had 70,000 applicants. The CF only wanted 4000 for the Regs, Reserves and Rangers.

I want the other 66,000. Or the other 36,000 if only 40,000 are interested. And I want them for life.

Well given how many people the CAF is short. I’d suggest they are fucking retarded if they only took 4k.

To me the PRes properly run shouldn’t really have a cap, and your Reg Force should be taking in more than the required number, as you can then be competitive with who you offer more than a 3 year basic engagement to.

Danish Home Guard - 18 to 60 = 42 years of 30,000 = 1,260,000 Volunteers.

Which if we decide to invade you, may be relevant— but what do you expect to do with those folks in Canada.

 

[Cloud Cover]

“Which if we decide to invade you, may be relevant— but what do you expect to do with those folks in Canada.”

We are going to need them to guard all of the prisoners, just like in WW2.
Canada is not going to be defeated by an army that can be distracted by heaping stacks of genuine Alberta pancakes, smothered with cartel protected butter and pure maple syrup

 

[quadrapiper]

Which if we decide to invade you, may be relevant— but what do you expect to do with those folks in Canada.

Floods, fires, augmenting or conducting ground and disaster SAR, being a pool of people with non-CAF-standard qualifications (IIRC the British maintain(ed) a reserve pool of potentially useful academic/STEM/health people), civil defence (whatever that looks like today), and who knows what else.

All the stuff that your Militia type Didn't Join Up For, that's potentially a waste of finite time away from work and home when it comes to training and maintaining trade, and that still needs doing.

People, though, volunteer to do all these things in various ways already. Doing so in a likely better equipped organization that doesn't require they fundraise for equipment would be an improvement.

 

[SupersonicMax]

View attachment 89027

LNG Terminals over the world: Complete list and map 2024

The emergence of the natural gas industry has paved the way for the development of an intricate network of LNG terminals across the globe.

www.asap.nl

What was that Gretzky line about the shot you never take?

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

Canada's mentality regarding its energy wealth and it's relationship with the United States can basically be summed up by this scene from "There Will be Blood"

 

[Rifleman62]

Opening statement. Balance on CPAC YouTube.

Canada's Military is F*CKED, but at least they have TAMPONS​

 

[Czech_pivo]

We had 70,000 applicants. The CF only wanted 4000 for the Regs, Reserves and Rangers.

I want the other 66,000. Or the other 36,000 if only 40,000 are interested. And I want them for life.

Danish Home Guard - 18 to 60 = 42 years of 30,000 = 1,260,000 Volunteers.

"The CF only wanted 4000 for the Regs, Reserves and Rangers" - Please tell me again what the current shortfall in the RCN is? From the 50,000ft level I see a massive issue here.....

 

[Fabius]

So we recruited less from that 70,000 pool than we did in any year from 2004 to 2010.
Assuming I am reading the Table C chart at this link correctly , in 2004 we recruited 4,339 and in 2010 we recruited 7,522.

Also unless things have changed drastically in the positive, numbers under 6000 recruits yield barely any increase in strength, managing simply to replace attrition.

Recruiting and Retention in the Canadian Forces - Canada.ca

Increasing the size and strength of a large organization such as the Canadian Forces (CF) is a significant endeavour, requiring both time and resources. To increase the number of personnel, the CF must not only recruit new people, they must also train these people, and take steps to retain the...

www.canada.ca

 

[daftandbarmy]

So we recruited less from that 70,000 pool than we did in any year from 2004 to 2010.
Assuming I am reading the Table C chart at this link correctly , in 2004 we recruited 4,339 and in 2010 we recruited 7,522.

Also unless things have changed drastically in the positive, numbers under 6000 recruits yield barely any increase in strength, managing simply to replace attrition.

Recruiting and Retention in the Canadian Forces - Canada.ca

Increasing the size and strength of a large organization such as the Canadian Forces (CF) is a significant endeavour, requiring both time and resources. To increase the number of personnel, the CF must not only recruit new people, they must also train these people, and take steps to retain the...

www.canada.ca

Except, with attrition, you lose experienced people and replace them with the opposite so it's not a zero sum game

 

[Kirkhill]

Except, with attrition, you lose experienced people and replace them with the opposite so it's not a zero sum game

A potential contributor to the demotivation of the experienced? The lack of keen youngsters to work with and mentor?

 

[daftandbarmy]

A potential contributor to the demotivation of the experienced? The lack of keen youngsters to work with and mentor?

No.... just alot more work than you should be doing to keep a steady state.

At least Sisyphus could easily measure his work

 

[Cloud Cover]

Except, with attrition, you lose experienced people and replace them with the opposite so it's not a zero sum game

The Treasury Board, DND and the CAF have made no real effort whatsoever to support, innovate and incentivize the retiree system (and experienced personnel) to stay connected and share experience, knowledge, wisdom after they’ve left unless they join the reserves, which probably doesn’t work for the majority of them.
When someone retires at 45-50, their life is only just beginning and within a year or two they would probably welcome a touch base call, solicit their interest in a project (or similar).

 

[Fabius]

Except, with attrition, you lose experienced people and replace them with the opposite so it's not a zero sum game

I don’t think that is an accurate statement in its entirety for the CAF. To a degree those experienced pers are replaced by those immediately behind them in ranks, time in and experience.
The new recruits are replacing the Ptes and Corporals bow MCpls, and Lts now Capts.

If the intake and outflow get too far apart in terms of numbers then yes the experience based starts eroding. I would suggest we have seen that but it’s due to the imbalance not necessarily the system bringing in people only at the bottom.