Justin Trudeau hints at boosting Canada’s military spending

I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[daftandbarmy]

But this crew won't be in charge by May. The opposition parties will force an election having voting no confidence against Trudeau's budget in March/April.
No one in Canada holds an election between now and April 15-May 1. Too many people won't get out and vote in Dec/Jan/Feb/Mar in this country, we've gone soft to Florida.

There, FTFY

 

[dimsum]

Wasn’t sure which thread was better since it talks about a few topics, so I put it in this one:

Ivison: Trump won’t stand for Canada’s ‘pathetic’ defence spending, says former ambassador

However the Trump administration is likely to take a 'somewhat measured' approach to imposing crippling tariffs on Canada, says Derek Burney

nationalpost.com

I think we all agree that we need to spend more on defence. But a few other non-defence quotes perked my interest.

It’s not a one-way street. Trump says ‘tariff’ is the most beautiful word in the dictionary but anyone knows from history that that’s not the case. If you start imposing tariffs and retaliating with more tariffs, everybody loses, nobody wins. So, I think we’ve got to be alert and we’ve got to insist that the USMCA terms are lived up to.” he said.

That smacks of sane-washing Trump’s remarks on tariffs. We know from history that those things happen, but I’m not convinced Trump does, or else he wouldn’t be throwing that threat around so easily.

He said the bill being considered in Parliament that protects the dairy, poultry and egg industries in future negotiations “makes no sense whatsoever.”

Uh, the US has a huge dairy subsidy, amongst other things.

 

[Kirkhill]

Canada need to understand they are in receive mode only at this point.

Trump47 has the House and Senate. So you are going to get assfucked hard unless you open your purse.

He’s going to kick you out of NORAD unless you get well above 2%. We don’t need Canada in NORAD anymore as we can use OTHR and other means to do what Canada was needed for before, and we can use Canada as the impact area for incoming.

Then your little economy is going to get destroyed, partial from American business that will be strongly motivated to leave Canada, and through tariffs.

Then we will take your water.

Trump wants Europe to harden up. If the article from the Telegraph I posted is half-ways right he appears to be clearing the way for European troops to enter Ukraine with US blessing. He is apparently happy to supply weapons but not blood or treasure. He does have form in that regard because he did supply Javelins when Obama would not. I think he is planning on a Lend-Lease contract such as that which was sold to the UK in 1916 and 1940.

My guess is that Europe will take him up on the offer, led by the Poles and the Scandinavians. The French will go along for the ride because they don't want to lose influence. Starmer will likely follow suit. The Germans and the Mediterranean will do their best to do nothing.

What happens if the US effectively locks Canada out of its market? Canada will be forced to look East-West instead of North-South and the old Red Line trade route will become necessary. Only now, instead of terminating in London and Sydney it will terminate in Tokyo, Seoul and Warsaw.



The Japanese and Koreans, as well as the Europeans, have a demonstrated desire for the things we have to trade, starting with our energy products but also including food, lumber and metals.

The French and the Brits want to sell gucci kit but the Poles and the Easterners are not willing to wait on their timelines or pay their prices. They are more than happy to buy from the South Koreans, Taiwan and Japan as well as Turkey and Israel. And necessity is making a mother of them all.

Canada is not a G7 country. It never was. It was brought into the G7 to balance out the Europeans just as it was brought into NATO.

If the US doesn't want us there and threatens our interests (and doesn't want to buy us out) what is to prevent us re-aligning with the UK and France, Northern Europe, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan? With future growth potential through Turkey and the Stans.

If we are positing counter-factual futures.

 

[ytz]

The OAS is a result of the last 3 decades of the CPP under collecting from those that contribute to it. The CPP contributions were set to low for decades and decades and the OAS was used in essence to offset this shortfall.

Whatever the reason, the fact is that OAS is due to hit $100B in 2030, about the same time we'll need a $60-70B defence budget.

Should previous governments have done better on CPP contributions? Yes. Just like they should have done better on infrastructure, housing, healthcare, education and defence. Years of underinvestment on so many sectors, are coming home to roost. The only question now is how to divvy up the bill. Because the bill has to be paid.

 

[Kirkhill]

Wasn’t sure which thread was better since it talks about a few topics, so I put it in this one:

Ivison: Trump won’t stand for Canada’s ‘pathetic’ defence spending, says former ambassador

However the Trump administration is likely to take a 'somewhat measured' approach to imposing crippling tariffs on Canada, says Derek Burney

nationalpost.com

I think we all agree that we need to spend more on defence. But a few other non-defence quotes perked my interest.


That smacks of sane-washing Trump’s remarks on tariffs. We know from history that those things happen, but I’m not convinced Trump does, or else he wouldn’t be throwing that threat around so easily.


Uh, the US has a huge dairy subsidy, amongst other things.

The US has many strengths but it is not invulnerable. Trump knows this. Witness his comments to an American conference about the vulnerability of the US dollar if it loses its status as a reserve currency. Options include national alternatives like the UKP, the Euro, the Swiss Fr, the Renminbi or other more organic options like gold or crypto-currencies. I'd put my money on the "organics" and the market.

Trumps art starts with bargaining from a position of strength which first of all means admit no weakness and threaten consequences. Show no fear of outcomes. And, like Reagan and Krushchev, embrace the madness.

Ultimately the man is looking for the best deal. Things will change. That is a given. But we are not without our own strengths and opportunities.

SWOT

Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats - Our daily analysis.

SWOT analysis - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Halifax Tar]

Whatever the reason, the fact is that OAS is due to hit $100B in 2030, about the same time we'll need a $60-70B defence budget.

Should previous governments have done better on CPP contributions? Yes. Just like they should have done better on infrastructure, housing, healthcare, education and defence. Years of underinvestment on so many sectors, are coming home to roost. The only question now is how to divvy up the bill. Because the bill has to be paid.

Dump in on the people who failed to pay it. Or just get rid of OAS.

Sorry no more other people's pay. Best of luck!

 

[Kirkhill]

Dump in on the people who failed to pay it. Or just get rid of OAS.

Sorry no more other people's pay. Best of luck!

So the investment fund on which millions of us counted is going to go into default. Excellent.
What is your plan when your private funds, with less secure backing, go into default?

The Democrats wanted to get rid of the Senate filibuster last month. This month, not so much.

 

[ytz]

He does have form in that regard because he did supply Javelins when Obama would not.

You forgetting the part where he tried to entrap the Ukrainian President and was embarrassed to supplying Javelins when a military officer actually put his duty to country first?

Trump wants Europe to harden up. If the article from the Telegraph I posted is half-ways right he appears to be clearing the way for European troops to enter Ukraine with US blessing. He is apparently happy to supply weapons but not blood or treasure. He does have form in that regard because he did supply Javelins when Obama would not. I think he is planning on a Lend-Lease contract such as that which was sold to the UK in 1916 and 1940.

My guess is that Europe will take him up on the offer, led by the Poles and the Scandinavians. The French will go along for the ride because they don't want to lose influence. Starmer will likely follow suit. The Germans and the Mediterranean will do their best to do nothing.

This is some crazy shit. Just look at the way he looks at Putin. We should all be so lucky to find someone who looks at us like that. He's going to be trying to find ways to help Putin win without making it insanely obvious or find some pretext to blame Ukraine for not making peace. Etc.

If he was about selling arms to Ukraine, he could have made that abundantly clear all this time. Instead, all we get are crazy conspiracies about Biden, Burisma, Globalists, etc.

I'll be happy to be proven wrong if Trump magically becomes Reagan 2.0. But given the partying in Russian channels, I just can't see this.

 

[Navy_Pete]

Wasn’t sure which thread was better since it talks about a few topics, so I put it in this one:

Ivison: Trump won’t stand for Canada’s ‘pathetic’ defence spending, says former ambassador

However the Trump administration is likely to take a 'somewhat measured' approach to imposing crippling tariffs on Canada, says Derek Burney

nationalpost.com

I think we all agree that we need to spend more on defence. But a few other non-defence quotes perked my interest.


That smacks of sane-washing Trump’s remarks on tariffs. We know from history that those things happen, but I’m not convinced Trump does, or else he wouldn’t be throwing that threat around so easily.


Uh, the US has a huge dairy subsidy, amongst other things.

The last time he was in he put tarriffs on things like aluminium from Canada, which bumped up prices to consumers on things like beer, as well as larger equipment. It also impacted a lot of the US military equipment so he effectively added costs to their own purchases indirectly by tarriffing all the things they import and are part of a product line.

The softwood lumber one also directly increases housing construction cost, so it's another strange hangup.

A lot of it would also kick Musk right in the dick, as he's offshoring a lot of things in Tesla, so is kind of hilarious in that respect, especially as they will likely be way less supportive of EV roll outs generally at the federal level.

 

[ytz]

Dump in on the people who failed to pay it. Or just get rid of OAS.

Sorry no more other people's pay. Best of luck!

I'm onboard for some of this. But I get called ageist.

I don't see why anybody making more than $50k per year needs OAS. The fact that OAS doesn't get clawed back till $90k and isn't phased out till $140k is ridiculous. And on top of that assets aren't taken into account. So a lot of these folks are sitting on million dollar homes collecting OAS. Meanwhile, Child Benefits are substantially reduced with a family (not individual) income of $100k.

 

[Halifax Tar]

So the investment fund on which millions of us counted is going to go into default. Excellent.

You should have planned better.

What is your plan when your private funds, with less secure backing, go into default?

I will look after my future. Take your grubby hands off of it.

I'm onboard for some of this. But I get called ageist.

I don't see why anybody making more than $50k per year needs OAS. The fact that OAS doesn't get clawed back till $90k and isn't phased out till $140k is ridiculous. And on top of that assets aren't taken into account. So a lot of these folks are sitting on million dollar homes collecting OAS. Meanwhile, Child Benefits are substantially reduced with a family (not individual) income of $100k.

I think our social programs were great ideas, and possible. But past generations failed to make the right investments and failed to make a growing population a priority, they gorged on their own immediate gratification. I think the chickens have come home to roost and its going to hurt.

 

[ytz]

So the investment fund on which millions of us counted is going to go into default. Excellent.
What is your plan when your private funds, with less secure backing, go into default?

1) CPP is not OAS. CPP is the "investment fund" and nobody is talking about touching that.

2) OAS is paid out of general revenue and is literally wealth transfer for making it to old age.

3) By 65, you should have substantial assets behind you. Especially given that most 65 yr olds today had a chance to get into the housing market before it went nuts. So if you have worked and paid off a home, CPP, RRSPs should be enough to cover lifestyle maintenance.

4) The taxpayer should have no obligation on giving you beer money in old age.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I'm onboard for some of this. But I get called ageist.

I don't see why anybody making more than $50k per year needs OAS. The fact that OAS doesn't get clawed back till $90k and isn't phased out till $140k is ridiculous. And on top of that assets aren't taken into account. So a lot of these folks are sitting on million dollar homes collecting OAS. Meanwhile, Child Benefits are substantially reduced with a family (not individual) income of $100k.

Years ago when the TFSA's first came out I built an investing macro looking at a 25yr in Canada working for 40yrs and contributing 100% only into a TSFA vs an RSP. How the 25yr would be better off investing in the TSFA over their working career because at the end of the day, when they turned 65yr and retired starting pulling money from the TFSA guaranteed that their yearly income from it would be $0 taxable income and that they only taxable income would be CPP, OAS and GIS - which they would get 100% of it because they would qualify for it all as they would be 'lower class' income wise.
This still holds 100% true today - max out the TSFA (ignore the RSP) and put it only in US/CDN Index ETF's and you'll be laughing at 65.

 

[YZT580]

Remember when both Germany AND Japan approached Canada about supplying them with LNG, and Justin straight up said to the cameras "There was no business case" in even exploring the possibility of doing so...

And this is where the 2% will come from As Trump so eloquently said: Drill baby drill. Natural gas shipping points the quickest route possible for pipelines and contracts off both coasts. Stop windmill and solar subsidies and somehow get out of the 30 billion we have pledged to build batteries. That would cover have the defense deficit in one shot. I expect to see global warming not just shoved to the back burner but taken right off the stove

 

[ytz]

Years ago when the TFSA's first came out I built an investing macro looking at a 25yr in Canada working for 40yrs and contributing 100% only into a TSFA vs an RSP. How the 25yr would be better off investing in the TSFA over their working career because at the end of the day, when they turned 65yr and retired starting pulling money from the TFSA guaranteed that their yearly income from it would be $0 taxable income and that they only taxable income would be CPP, OAS and GIS - which they would get 100% of it because they would qualify for it all as they would be 'lower class' income wise.
This still holds 100% true today - max out the TSFA (ignore the RSP) and put it only in US/CDN Index ETF's and you'll be laughing at 65.

That's good financial planning. But for this forum, complaints about cutting OAS would be particularly rich.

The average CAF member finishing their career after 25 yrs, has a guaranteed inflation adjusted pension of $40-60k and another $15-20k in CPP on top. And they start collecting that pension 20 years before they actually retire. If any of these people need $11k in OAS on top, they've fucked up.

 

[RangerRay]

Trump wants Europe to harden up. If the article from the Telegraph I posted is half-ways right he appears to be clearing the way for European troops to enter Ukraine with US blessing. He is apparently happy to supply weapons but not blood or treasure. He does have form in that regard because he did supply Javelins when Obama would not. I think he is planning on a Lend-Lease contract such as that which was sold to the UK in 1916 and 1940.

My guess is that Europe will take him up on the offer, led by the Poles and the Scandinavians. The French will go along for the ride because they don't want to lose influence. Starmer will likely follow suit. The Germans and the Mediterranean will do their best to do nothing.

Those are some rose-coloured glasses you’re wearing

If that story is half-right, it sounds like the forced Finlandization of Ukraine enforced by European troops. Russia gets to add the occupied Ukrainian territories to its Empire. Europeans get to be “peacekeepers” guarding the new borders of the Russian Empire.

The US can add Ukraine to the list of friends it abandoned.

 

[Halifax Tar]

The US can add Ukraine to the list of friends it abandoned.

Countries don't have friends, they have interests.

 

[dimsum]

Those are some rose-coloured glasses you’re wearing

If that story is half-right, it sounds like the forced Finlandization of Ukraine enforced by European troops. Russia gets to add the occupied Ukrainian territories to its Empire. Europeans get to be “peacekeepers” guarding the new borders of the Russian Empire.

The US can add Ukraine to the list of friends it abandoned.

I’d say “E and W Germany after 1945” minus the context, with a sprinkling of how the US/UK abandoned Poland post-war to the Soviets.

 

[dimsum]

Countries don't have friends, they have interests.

It’s also in the US and W Europe’s interest not to have a DMZ within Europe again, but here we are.

 

[Halifax Tar]

It’s also in the US and W Europe’s interest not to have a DMZ within Europe again, but here we are.

European problems are for Europeans to solve ?