I'll believe it when I see it.
I suppose that is good news. Really good news in the grande scheme of things.The one thing I take from the current unpleasantness is that dispersion is a fact of life. A low density battle field.
It may be possible to form up an armoured division on a narrow front. Let's say it survives the attack. Even if if does it will still only be exploiting a short distance on a narrow front. It has the potential to win a battle. I doubt if it is a war winner.
We have been worrying about the Cold War Soviet Army even as publicly available open source intelligence from people like the Swedes were informing us that Fronts were now Brigades, that tanks were rusted out and that ships, subs and planes hadn't been updated since the 1970s.
The only WW3 vestige left is the nuclear threat - also of 1970s technology.
Even the Chinese PLA - is going to be hard pressed to maintain internal order, defend their borders and launch an invasion of Taiwan.
The good news is that nobody has enough soldiers to go around.
What makes you think we won't continue to have a personnel shortage a decade from now?So now the focus can go back to China… maybe it’s a good thing we’re going through the personnel shortage now … and not a decade from now?
Xi calls for China military growth at Communist Party Congress
Army (PLA) into a “world-class military,” pledging to improve the PLA’s ability to safeguard national sovereignty and build strategic deterrence. He also urged the PLA to strengthen its training and improve its “ability to win.”
Xi’s speech was peppered with the Chinese term for “security” — which was mentioned about 50 times. He called national security the “foundation of the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,” and urged enhancing security in military, economy and “all aspects,” both at home and abroad.
China's Xi opens Party Congress with speech tackling Taiwan, Hong Kong and zero-Covid | CNN
Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Sunday vowed to steer China through grave challenges toward national rejuvenation, advancing a nationalistic vision that has put it on a collision path with the West.www.cnn.com
“The rejuvenation of the Chinese nation is an irreversible, historical course,” he said to the more than 2,000 delegates attending the opening, held in the Great Hall of the People that overlooks Tiananmen Square in the centre of Beijing.
He called for accelerating military and technology development to propel this rejuvenation and said the People’s Liberation Army, the world’s second-largest military after the United States, needs to “safeguard China’s dignity and core interests”.
“We will work faster to modernise military theory, personnel and weapons,” Xi said in the nearly two hour speech, which was punctuated by brief bursts of applause from the masked delegates. “We will enhance the military’s strategic capabilities.”
Xi vows to strengthen China’s military as Party Congress begins
Chinese leader defends ‘zero-COVID’, lauds end of ‘chaos’ in Hong Kong and refuses to rule out force to take Taiwan.www.aljazeera.com
The gold standard of deterrence and assurance is a defensive posture that confronts the adversary with the prospect of operational failure as the likely consequence of aggression.[1]
[1] Ochmanek, David et al. “U.S. Military Capabilities and Forces for a Dangerous World” RAND Corp 2017 at p. 45 Rethinking the U.S. Approach to Force Planning
The biggest problem with this sort of thinking is that it is why we are where we are right now. FRP in the 90s was about "doing more with less", after 20+ years of "doing more with less" we need to start looking at "doing less with more".What makes you think we won't continue to have a personnel shortage a decade from now?
Some of the recruiting/retention issues may be internal (bad media in recent years, painfully slow recruitment processes, management issues impacting retention, crappy equipment, etc.) but the main reason we're short of people in the military is that the majority of Canadians either don't feel the need for a large military or have the desire to be in the military. Are we expecting that to radically change in the next ten years?
And realistically with personnel costs being a big portion of the defence budget won't growing the military potentially have the perverse effect of cutting into the budget required to recapitalize our rusting out/missing equipment? Of course a larger defence budget could help with that, but does anyone here really see that happening?
Maybe it's time to accept that we are highly unlikely to grow the size of the CAF...not just due to lack of money, but also due to a lack of interested people. We need to take a serious look at where we can cut the fat and overhead in the CAF and move those PYs saved into those positions (both front line and support) that make the CAF militarily effective. We need to look at ways to make the Reserves (even if just a portion of them) more capable of relieving some of the staffing pressure on the Reg Force.
And maybe we need to take a serious look at how we choose to structure our forces in a way that makes the best use of the PYs we do have available. We're lucky as being effectively an island state that the bulk of our military commitments are optional. We don't face the realistic threat of a conventional land invasion so that gives us some pretty wide discretion as to the types of forces we can choose to have. For example, would a Fires Brigade require less personnel than a LAV Brigade? An AD Battalion less personnel than an Armoured Recce/Cavalry Regiment? A submarine less than a CSC? etc.
Great. The CAF is having trouble finding people to fill it's current positions. Same is happening in the USA. Where do you propose we get the people from to not only stabilize the current force but to expand it?The biggest problem with this sort of thinking is that it is why we are where we are right now. FRP in the 90s was about "doing more with less", after 20+ years of "doing more with less" we need to start looking at "doing less with more".
We start with stabilizing things, part of that is going to be redistribution of PYs from areas that don't need to be CAF and fixing the issues keeping/driving people away. Some occupations have no trouble filling their positions, and others can't get anyone interested. Rather than looking just at CAF numbers, we need to look at occupations specifically.Great. The CAF is having trouble finding people to fill it's current positions. Same is happening in the USA. Where do you propose we get the people from to not only stabilize the current force but to expand it?
Part of the recruitment/retention issue is not having the right kit, in the right quantities. If the GoC got serious about providing good kit, in sufficient qualities, some of our current personnel problems might start to go away.The Government could overnight decide to increase the Defence budget to the NATO 2% of GDP target and yes, that would allow us to upgrade and expand our equipment holdings but how does that help with the fact that we can't actually man the limited equipment we have now?
I deride that sort of thinking because I'm one of the people being asked to do more with less, and I'm tired of it. doing less with more might mean cutting bureaucratic process, or maybe automating what can be automated. I don't see cutting CAF numbers to save on personnel costs as anything more than the next round of what we have been doing since the 90s.You deride it as "this sort of thinking" but it is the physical reality on the ground. We don't have the numbers we need for our current force. Is it just wrong thinking that is standing in the way of our being able to man a deployable Army Division, two dozen CSCs and ten subs, and a fighter force of 250 F-35's?
There is no magical solution, but I can assure you that you are not going to get a more capable CAF by cutting personnel numbers to reinvest the money in new toys. You might get a couple of boutique capabilities for a few years(until they rust out/become obsolete and are deemed too expensive to replace), but without an increase in public support all you will have accomplished is making the CAF smaller, and less well rounded.If you have a magical solution to solve the problem of both convincing the Canadian public to provide the funding required for a substantially larger military as well as attracting the 10's of thousands of new recruits required to man that force then I'd love to hear it!
Hopefully the CAF's "Reconstitution" efforts will succeed in stabilizing the manning situation, but that just maintains us where we currently are...which is a generally ineffective military unsuited for a peer conflict. In the absence of an increase in funding AND a sudden desire for more Canadians to join the military then we can either choose the status quo and remain largely irrelevant or we can re-examine how we can make best use of the funding and manpower we currently have available to make us more relevant.
There is no magical solution, but I can assure you that you are not going to get a more capable CAF by cutting personnel numbers to reinvest the money in new toys. You might get a couple of boutique capabilities for a few years(until they rust out/become obsolete and are deemed too expensive to replace), but without an increase in public support all you will have accomplished is making the CAF smaller, and less well rounded.
On the other hand we might just be back in a conventional arms race.
China is wearing its plans to build an even stronger military on its sleeve.
And there should be no doubt that regardless of who ends up controlling Russia when all this is over, there will be a concentrated plan to rebuild the Russian conventional military.
And, let's face it, the plan to rebuild the Canadian military is long, long overdue.
It might not be a real peace but in order to have a lasting period of no active war, deterrence matters:
And as can be seen from Russia's incursion into the Ukraine, the ability to defend oneself needs to be clearly and obviously seen in order to prevent a miscalculation on the scale that Putin made.
The Royal Observer Corps (ROC) was a civil defence organisation intended for the visual detection, identification, tracking and reporting of aircraft over Great Britain. It operated in the United Kingdom between 29 October 1925 and 31 December 1995, when the Corps' civilian volunteers were stood down (ROC headquarters staff at RAF Bentley Priory stood down on 31 March 1996). Composed mainly of civilian spare-time volunteers, ROC personnel wore a Royal Air Force (RAF) style uniform and latterly came under the administrative control of RAF Strike Command and the operational control of the Home Office. Civilian volunteers were trained and administered by a small cadre of professional full-time officers under the command of the Commandant Royal Observer Corps; latterly a serving RAF Air Commodore.
Redistribution of existing PYs from unneeded positions (as uniformed positions) to positions that need to be uniformed. Agreed and I stated this specifically in a previous post in the Reconstitution thread.We start with stabilizing things, part of that is going to be redistribution of PYs from areas that don't need to be CAF and fixing the issues keeping/driving people away. Some occupations have no trouble filling their positions, and others can't get anyone interested. Rather than looking just at CAF numbers, we need to look at occupations specifically.
Part of the reason my occupation can't recruit or retain people is that our education and CFAT standards are too high. We are already working on fixing those issues, so that's part of the problem being solved right now.
I agree that better kit will help with retention and possibly some boost in recruitment (but honestly how many potential recruits base their decision to join on their understanding of the condition of our current equipment?)Part of the recruitment/retention issue is not having the right kit, in the right quantities. If the GoC got serious about providing good kit, in sufficient qualities, some of our current personnel problems might start to go away.
Show me where I suggested cutting CAF numbers to save on personnel costs? I suggested simply that the existing recruitment challenges are likely to continue in the absence of a significant cultural shift by the Canadian public toward an EXPANDED CAF. Without such a shift in opinion neither the budget or the pool of potential recruits available to the CAF is likely to significantly increase. I specifically suggested the same solutions that you are suggesting...reducing the bureaucratic overhead and automate where possible. Not less people doing the same things, but possibly the same number of people doing different things more efficiently.I deride that sort of thinking because I'm one of the people being asked to do more with less, and I'm tired of it. doing less with more might mean cutting bureaucratic process, or maybe automating what can be automated. I don't see cutting CAF numbers to save on personnel costs as anything more than the next round of what we have been doing since the 90s.
Again, I never suggested making the deliberate decision to reduce the size of the CAF. I simply pointed out the reality that we are having trouble maintaining the numbers we have now and I don't see anything that suggests to me that the situation is suddenly going to change.There is no magical solution, but I can assure you that you are not going to get a more capable CAF by cutting personnel numbers to reinvest the money in new toys. You might get a couple of boutique capabilities for a few years(until they rust out/become obsolete and are deemed too expensive to replace), but without an increase in public support all you will have accomplished is making the CAF smaller, and less well rounded.
Certainly better recruiting processes and more improved HR practices to keep up with changes to the modern workforce will help but I don't think they will have a meaningful impact on significantly expanding the pool of citizens that will be interested in joining the military in the first place. That will require a cultural change.It might not be magical, but it's mainstream for big organizations.
Employees are a commodity, and you need to commoditize the HR supply chain or - these days - you're probably doomed .
This is one way to do it https://www.indeed.com/hire/resources/recruiting-hiring
And that line summarizes everything that is wrong with our outlook. We somehow think that we are impervious so we don't take things seriously. The DND is our Swiss guardI suppose that is good news. Really good news in the grande scheme of things.
, while not a NATO member, took seriously their ability to defend themselves.
So now the focus can go back to China… maybe it’s a good thing we’re going through the personnel shortage now … and not a decade from now?
It might not be magical, but it's mainstream for big organizations.
Employees are a commodity, and you need to commoditize the HR supply chain or - these days - you're probably doomed .
This is one way to do it https://www.indeed.com/hire/resources/recruiting-hiring
Redistribution of existing PYs from unneeded positions (as uniformed positions) to positions that need to be uniformed. Agreed and I stated this specifically in a previous post in the Reconstitution thread.
I agree that better kit will help with retention and possibly some boost in recruitment (but honestly how many potential recruits base their decision to join on their understanding of the condition of our current equipment?)
Show me where I suggested cutting CAF numbers to save on personnel costs? I suggested simply that the existing recruitment challenges are likely to continue in the absence of a significant cultural shift by the Canadian public toward an EXPANDED CAF. Without such a shift in opinion neither the budget or the pool of potential recruits available to the CAF is likely to significantly increase. I specifically suggested the same solutions that you are suggesting...reducing the bureaucratic overhead and automate where possible. Not less people doing the same things, but possibly the same number of people doing different things more efficiently.
Again, I never suggested making the deliberate decision to reduce the size of the CAF. I simply pointed out the reality that we are having trouble maintaining the numbers we have now and I don't see anything that suggests to me that the situation is suddenly going to change.
Let me be clear, if I had my way the CAF would both grow and get lots of new kit to make it a relevant and effective deterrent and combat force. I believe that should be a no-brainer political goal for Canada's citizens and Government. However, unfortunately reality shows that the majority of Canadians (and as a result our politicians) don't share that opinion.
We've seen where decades of the CAF leadership pretending that it's not the case and maintaining the facade of a full-spectrum fighting force capable of expeditionary operations. They keep the basic structure but continue to allow it to hollow out to the point of ineffectiveness in order to keep up the charade. I'm suggesting that it's time for truth to be told to those in power (the GOC) that with the equipment and people we have available this is what we are capable of.
Certainly better recruiting processes and more improved HR practices to keep up with changes to the modern workforce will help but I don't think they will have a meaningful impact on significantly expanding the pool of citizens that will be interested in joining the military in the first place. That will require a cultural change.
I don't think that change is impossible, but it will require buy-in and effort from our political leadership. They will have to give to Canadians a sense of our important role in the World and how fulfilling that role has very real everyday impacts on our personal welfare. Canada needs leaders that will provide Canadians with a vision that we can believe in and feel is worth a level of self sacrifice. THEN you will see more people willing to serve. That has been lacking since the PET era and probably has as much to do with the current woes of the CAF as any other factor.
$0.02
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I agree very much with this. In my way of thinking I have always differentiated between resources dedicated to defence outputs and those dedicated to administrative overhead.I deride that sort of thinking because I'm one of the people being asked to do more with less, and I'm tired of it. doing less with more might mean cutting bureaucratic process, or maybe automating what can be automated. I don't see cutting CAF numbers to save on personnel costs as anything more than the next round of what we have been doing since the 90s.
That's kind of apples and oranging, @Kirkhill.
I don't disagree with the comment about a display of weakness by China. That's why I say there is an upcoming arms race as they move to cure their "weakness". I agree totally that they are signalling that they do not have the strength to achieve what they wish to. I wish China would stay that way but as it stands their rhetoric on the one hand talks about defence as a deterrent while their national objectives are international (such as Taiwan). It's not too hard to parse the language to conclude that they wish a military posture to let them do, internationally, whatever it is they want to do without interference.
The distinct units seem to work for other countries, a way to increase the size of the force if required.For Air Reserve, we tend to integrate reservists into normal Squadrons, be them pilots, maintainers or otherwise. They become a relief valve, to reducing the FG burden on the cadre of Reg Force senior pilots/techs (those teaching the young folks), and a bassin of experience, retaining some form of corporate knowledge. I never understood the need for distinct reserve units…
Other than that pesky NDA and the whole issue of Class A Reservists parading routinely with units of the Regular Force, which opens a whole can of worms as to what degree/when they are subject to the NDA.For Air Reserve, we tend to integrate reservists into normal Squadrons, be them pilots, maintainers or otherwise. They become a relief valve, to reducing the FG burden on the cadre of Reg Force senior pilots/techs (those teaching the young folks), and a bassin of experience, retaining some form of corporate knowledge. I never understood the need for distinct reserve units…