Election 2015

[jollyjacktar]

That's like saying that since companies get, in one way or another, government subsidies/grants, their employees are sorta-kinda public service workers, to a degree not easily measured?

Toooooooooooooooo many shades of grey for me ....

Well there you go,  we're all somewhat self employed even after retirement, come to think of it.  Utopia, here we come.  :nod:

 

[jollyjacktar]

And the starting pistol has been fired.  I am sooo going to be sick of hearing about the election by Oct 19th.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-stephen-harper-confirms-start-of-11-week-federal-campaign-1.3175136

 

[cupper]

And the starting pistol has been fired.  I am sooo going to be sick of hearing about the election by Oct 19th.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-stephen-harper-confirms-start-of-11-week-federal-campaign-1.3175136

Oh stop your whining. Not like you have to sit through a 2 year election campaign.  ;D

 

[jollyjacktar]

Oh stop your whining. Not like you have to sit through a 2 year election campaign.  ;D

Ha!  We still have to listen to the BS to some degree up here too.  But, yeah, you're right.  That must be one of the seven circles of hell.  >

 

[Rocky Mountains]

The opposition will have enough money to run a reasonably effective campaign this time.  They will have a problem in the election 6 months down the road.  The stupidest thing the Liberals could do is to attempt to put the NDP in power.  Once the NDP are in power, there is no more Liberal Party.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Ottawa Sun is an analysis of the Mulcair vs Trudeau campaign:

http://www.ottawasun.com/2015/08/02/why-mulcair-wants-to-kill-the-liberals

Why Mulcair wants to kill the Liberals

BY LORRIE GOLDSTEIN, TORONTO SUN

FIRST POSTED: SUNDAY, AUGUST 02, 2015

As the election campaign begins, watch for the NDP’s Tom Mulcair to appeal to Justin Trudeau’s Liberal voters that he’s the only party leader who can defeat Stephen Harper and the Conservatives.

It will be a reversal of fortune for the third-place Liberals, who can no longer credibly claim they are the “progressive” party with the best chance of stopping the Conservatives and that a vote for the NDP is the same as a vote for Harper.

The Liberals have always used this argument when entering elections as either the governing party or official opposition, a tactic lost to them now that they are in third place in seat count and popular support.

Indeed, Mulcair and Harper will be happy if this election turns into a contest between the NDP and Conservatives, as they both pick off supporters from the once-mighty Liberals, who used to call themselves Canada’s natural governing party.

NDP Leader Tom Mulcair and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau at the Pride Parade in Montreal in August 2014. (Toronto Sun Files)

Some political observers have questioned the wisdom of the Conservatives’ “Justin Trudeau is just not ready” ad, which even the Liberals now admit has been effective in driving down their support.

Critics argue the Conservative ad is sending Liberal supporters to the NDP, thus backfiring on the Tories.

What they’re forgetting is there are many “blue Liberal” voters who, faced with a stark choice between a Conservative and NDP government, will vote Conservative.

That’s why both Harper and Mulcair have an interest in driving down the Liberal vote, in anticipation of a head-to-head contest between their two parties, with Trudeau as an also ran.

Of course, Harper and Mulcair will also turn their guns on each other — the Tories have already launched their first attack ads against Mulcair — but the battle between Mulcair and Trudeau to be the “progressive” alternative to Harper is just as important.

There’s no love lost between Liberals and New Democrats, a reality often overlooked when one simply talks about the NDP or Liberals defeating the Tories outright, or forming a coalition in a minority Parliament after the election.

In his 2007 book, Dead Centre, for example, Jamey Heath, a top communications advisor to the late NDP leader Jack Layton, disemboweled the federal Liberals over 273 pages far more than the Conservatives.

Heath described the Liberals as hypocrites, mouthing left-wing platitudes during elections while arrogantly asking NDP supporters to abandon their party and vote Liberal to stop the Conservatives.

Then, after the election, the Liberals return to governing from the right.

“We’re not Pavlov’s pets, and don’t have to bark when Liberals ask us to, ” Heath wrote: “We shouldn’t fight over how best to get the crumbs Liberals throw our way. With politics realigning, its new rules create opportunity to demand the loaf that our majority makes more possible. We might not have another time to keep shrinking the Liberal Party down ... and work ... for the kind of country that we know 140 years of intermittent majority governments from the Liberal Party of Canada didn’t build.”

Of course, anything can happen in an election.

A few months ago, it looked like Trudeau and the Liberals were coasting to victory on Oct. 19.

But the way things look now, this is the NDP’s best chance not just to defeat the Conservatives, but to reduce the Liberals to the rump status the NDP was mired in for decades, before finishing second in the 2011 election.

Two points on which Mr Goldstein and I agree:

    First:    "There are many “blue Liberal” voters who, faced with a stark choice between a Conservative and NDP government, will vote Conservative"; and

    Second: "the Liberals [are] hypocrites, mouthing left-wing platitudes during elections while arrogantly asking NDP supporters to abandon their party and vote Liberal to stop the Conservatives ... then,
                  after the election, the Liberals return to governing from the right."

 

[PPCLI Guy]

The opposition will have enough money to run a reasonably effective campaign this time.  They will have a problem in the election 6 months down the road. 

This is why we have a 78 day election.  The government refunds 50% of the spending by parties federally, and 60% locally, once the election is done.  That means that if the Conservatives spend the full $50M on this election (and I do not believe that the other two parties will be able to raise that much), they will have a war chest of $25M which is the maximum for a normal 37 day election - say in 6-12 months after a Conservative or NDP minority.

This is a cynical genius at work.

 

[Edward Campbell]

A lot of the financial tactics portion of a campaign involves how and when to spend money on advertizing. This article, which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Hill Times illustrates that dilemma from a Liberal perspective:

https://www.hilltimes.com/news/news/2015/08/03/nervous-liberals-say-trudeau-should-counter-conservative-attack-ads-hard-now/42964

‘Nervous’ Liberals say Trudeau should counter Conservative attack ads hard, now

By ABBAS RANA |

Published: Monday, 08/03/2015

It will be the longest federal election campaign in Canada since 1872 and with the election day only 11 weeks away, some senior Liberals, who had expected smooth sailing only a year ago with their young, charismatic leader at the helm, are “nervous” and even “panicking” at the prospect of the Liberals once again ending up in third place, but incumbent Liberal MPs seeking re-election say, despite the polls, they’re in good shape to win the next election.

“I read these polls and if, day after day, you’re third, why wouldn’t you be nervous? If the polls show a trend in the wrong direction, why would you be anything other than nervous,” said one top Liberal who spoke to The Hill Times on condition of anonymity, referring to sliding support for the party reflected in national public opinion polls consistently over the last year.

“People are looking at how we’re doing. If you look at the polls over the last 12 months, we’ve been going down rather than up. Actions always speak louder than words. In terms of how we’re doing in the polls, on balance, it’s negative. Well, facts speak for themselves,” said the source and added that some Liberals are “panicking.”

When Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau  (Papineau, Que.) became party leader in April 2013, Liberals led in public opinion polls for about 18 months, but for the last year they have dropped significantly with most recent polls showing the party in third place.

As of July 27, the Conservatives and NDP were polling at 31.6 per cent, and the Liberals at 26.1 per cent, according to ThreeHundredEight.com for CBC.

In the last federal election, Liberal Party ended up in third place, for the first time in the country’s electoral history. In the May 2011 election, the Conservatives won a majority government with 166 seats out of 308 seats, and NDP for the first time won the official opposition status with 103 seats. The Liberals won only 34 seats, the Bloc Québecois lost its official party status in the Commons when it won only four seats, and the Green Party won one seat. Up until the last fall, all Liberals were almost certain that their party would win the next federal election, but then they started to lose the political support.

Most political players have attributed the Liberal Party’s slide in polls to Mr. Trudeau’s verbal blunders, the political miscalculation of accepting controversial former Conservative MP Eve Adams (Mississauga-Brampton South, Ont.) in the Liberal Party who subsequently lost her nomination recently, and the Liberal Party’s decision to support Bill C-51, the so-called Anti-Terrorism Bill.

According to an Ipsos poll released last week, the New Democratic Party was leading all the parties with 34 per cent, followed closely by the Conservatives with 33 per cent, while the Liberals were in third place with 25 per cent approval ratings, and the Green Party at three per cent. The online poll of 2,000 Canadians was conducted between July 23 and July 27 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

A Nanos Research poll released last week revealed that 66 per cent of Canadians think it’s time for change in government. On the question of trust to manage the economy, the poll of 1,000 Canadians indicated that Prime Minister Stephen Harper (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) and NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair (Outremont, Que.) were tied at 31 per cent and Mr. Trudeau had the support of 18 per cent, while Green Party Leader Elizabeth May (Saanich-Gulf Islands, B.C.) had four per cent.

Meanwhile, some Liberals on the Senate side said Mr. Trudeau made a mistake early last year when he booted all the Liberal Senators from the national Liberal caucus because it deprived him of receiving valuable and candid advice from seasoned campaigners on election strategy and legislative issues. The Liberals said that if the Senators were still part of the caucus, they would have advised Mr. Trudeau to oppose Bill C-51 as they voted against it in the Senate.

“A number of people are saying, ‘Had the Senators not been removed, they might have been able to talk him out of C-51 position.’ They [Liberal leadership] lost that voice of experience,” said the source, adding that Senators used to offer political advice forcefully without worrying about any consequences as compared to MPs who always have to be careful in what they say.

But Liberal MP Judy Sgro (York West, Ont.), who’s running again, told The Hill Times she’s not concerned about polls, as they tend to change quickly. She said that her party has a plan and a strategy in place and will follow that, but declined to share any details. Ms. Sgro blamed the Conservative Party’s attack ads against Mr. Trudeau for the Liberal Party’s low polling numbers. She said Canadians will soon get detailed information about the Liberal Party’s election platform as well as Mr. Trudeau’s vision for the country, which she predicted will turn public opinion around in favour of the Liberals.

“When people have a chance to see more of Mr. Trudeau in the debates, when they see more of our platform, they hear more directly from Mr. Trudeau exactly what his vision for Canada is for our children and our grandchildren’s future, you’ll find that there will be a considerable change in those polls,” said Ms. Sgro. “If you look at the amount of money spent to attack Mr. Trudeau, nobody can be surprised people are reacting [the way] they are right now. As the campaign progresses… you’ll see that those spots will change considerably.”

Deputy Liberal House Leader Kevin Lamoureux (Winnipeg North, Man.), who’s also running again, told The Hill Times that he’s not worried and is “absolutely” convinced that his party will win the next election. He said Canadians are not paying any attention to federal politics right now since most are vacationing. He also predicted that the polling numbers will start to change in favour of his party in September when the election date draws closer and people will pay closer attention to party leaders and issues.

“Polls at this point don’t really matter,” said Mr. Lamoureux.

But University of Toronto political science professor Nelson Wiseman told The Hill Times that while it’s too early to make any predictions, the Liberals know that they’re “in serious trouble” as they’re third place in public opinion polls when the election is around the corner. He added that unexpected events do happen in national election campaigns, but if the other parties don’t make any major mistakes, the Liberals could end up third place, again

“I suspect the Liberals are in deep trouble. They know it, everybody else knows it,” said Prof. Wiseman.

With the next general election only weeks away, Ottawa-area federal Liberal candidates held a BBQ at Vincent Massey Park in Ottawa last Tuesday evening to thank campaign volunteers for their work. Mr. Trudeau also showed up unannounced towards the end of the evening and spoke to the volunteers along with other Ottawa-area MPs and candidates. National Liberal campaign co-chair Katie Telford and Liberal Party’s national director Jeremy Broadhurst also spoke.

A Liberal source, who attended the event and spoke on condition of anonymity, said he’s not optimistic that his party will win the next election, but he said most of the volunteers at the BBQ were upbeat. The source said that almost all volunteers, however, were frustrated that the Conservatives have been bombarding the airwaves with the “Just Not Ready” attack ads against Mr. Trudeau and the Liberals have still not responded with their own attack ads.

The source said Liberals at the event were concerned that this is the third Liberal leader after Stéphane Dion (Saint Laurent-Cartierville, Que.) and Michael Ignatieff who Conservatives have attacked with ads and that Mr. Trudeau is repeating the same mistake the previous two leaders made by not launching counter attacks against Mr. Harper.

“It’s a slow motion movie we’ve seen before. This is the third time and why we’re sitting watching these ads every night and not pushing back,” the source said, adding that between 200 and 250 people attended the event.

In his speech at the event, Mr. Trudeau thanked the volunteers for their support, but did not talk about any specific policy issues. He emphasized the point that Canadians don’t just want “change,” but want “change for the better.”

The source said that he was impressed by the quality of remarks and the delivery of Mr. Trudeau’s speech.

“It was interesting how many notches above the others [local Ottawa candidates] he was,” said the source. “He has become a pretty good speaker.”

Ms. Telford underscored the fact that volunteers make the difference between a successful and unsuccessful campaign because they spread the party message and play a key role in identifying supporters by getting those supporters to vote on election day.

Meanwhile, a former senior Liberal told The Hill Times that one of the broader strategic errors that Mr. Trudeau’s top strategists made and which has exposed the leader to the “Just Not Ready” attack ad was failing to identify the spot where the Conservatives would likely have launched their attack ads. The source said the Liberals knew that Mr. Trudeau would be attacked for a perceived lack of “substance,” but should have addressed it themselves right after he won the leadership, which is why the “Just Not Ready” attack ad seems to be working.

“They needed to show some substance early on because that substance insulates your leader.  It creates a protective shell around him. What’s Justin Trudeau’s greatest weakness? He’s seen as being shallow. What are the Tories attacking him on? He’s being shallow. A year or so ago, if you had added that gravitas to his charisma, that somehow this guy has great depth, he has a great team and here’s a bunch of plans that we’re planning to do, that would have helped. It’s a strategic mistake that was made,” the source said. 

“The aura around the leader had to be enhanced a long time ago. That’s where they failed. That’s a collective failure, that’s a collective decision that they made.”

The Liberal source contrasted this failure with the NDP’s successful execution of strategy by making Mr. Mulcair look like a “happy” man who was perceived as an “angry man.”

“The angry man is no longer the angry man. Have they not softened him up over the last 12 months without saying ‘We’re softening him up’? Now, all of a sudden, that angry edgy man, you don’t see him on TV as much. He’s still the same guy. They identified what their weakness was. Now they can move to the other issues,” the Liberal source said.

Although the NDP has been leading in public opinion polls for more than eight weeks, the Conservatives have been mostly targeting the Liberals in their attack ads, although the Conservatives did launch an attack ad last week against the NDP’s alleged misuse of $2.7-million in House funds.

Sources told The Hill Times last week that the reason is that Conservatives still believe their main rival is the Liberal Party because of the strength of the party’s brand and its history for being the “natural governing party” for decades.

“The Liberal brand is still strong and, at this time, they’re our main competition. That’s the reason why we’re attacking Justin. If we can eliminate the Liberal [threat], we believe we can easily defeat the NDP,” a Conservative source told The Hill Times. 

Huffington Post Canada, meanwhile, reported on Friday that the Conservatives are hammering away at Mr. Trudeau because they think the Liberals are their main opponents and want to drive them down to numbers similar to former leader Michael Ignatieff’s disastrous election-night on May 2, 2011.

arana@hilltimes.com

The Hill Times

The conventional wisdom is that parties should have a big war chest to spend in the last week of a campaign, because experience, in Canada, the UK and the US, suggests that this is when the most votes can be swayed, shifted from one party to another or, more likely from "undecided" to a party. But, as the article suggests, some Liberals want to spend a lot, now, to counter the "Just Not Ready" ads which, many observers agree, have worked. The Liberals are, I think, in third place in funding, too, so the calculation is triply hard for them: if they spend, now, to refurbish M Trudeau's image, to counter the CPC's efforts to "define" him as "Just Not Ready," then they may not have enough money ready for the "big push" in the second week of Oct.

 

[Edward Campbell]

The Ottawa Citizen reports that: "Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne is wasting no time in plunging into the federal election campaign, challenging Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s early election call ... Wynne plans to campaign hard for the federal Liberals and leader Justin Trudeau, just a year after her party won an unexpected majority government in Ontario ... But the Ontario Liberals support could also bite the federal parties, as some have already suggested. The new sex ed curriculum and the planned sale of 60 per cent of Hydro One are two provincial policies some say could bleed into the federal campaign."

Premier Wynne is very popular in areas where the anybody except Harper sentiment is already strong; in other words, she's preaching to the choir. The new sex-ed curriculum is problematic in the suburbs, especially amongst some Asian-Canadians, ditto the planned sale of Hydro One ~ but amongst even more people. That, the suburbs, is where M Trudeau needs help and that's where Ms Wynne might do more harm than good.

But, in areas where she is popular, she may help the Liberals siphon votes away from the NDP, with unpredictable results.

 

[ModlrMike]

But, in areas where she is popular, she may help the Liberals siphon votes away from the NDP, with unpredictable results.

It will be interesting to see what the unions make of this. I'm sure they're still smarting from being stabbed in the back following their having Wynne elected.

 

[Kat Stevens]

Getting back to the "just not ready" TV spots for a second.  I've spoken to my kids, 3 out 4 capable of making a semi informed decision, the fourth being autistic and quite clearly the happiest of any of them. All under 30, and all have said the same thing; the old guy and the smarmy "some growing up to do" line has done more harm than it has good. Each of them feels the add is saying young = stupid, and honestly I can't disagree.  I know it's us cranky old farts that keep the conservatives ticking over, but today's youngsters are tomorrow's cranky old farts.

 

[GAP]

But how likely are they to make the time to vote.....the demographics show they don't, but the old guys do.

that's the difference.

 

[Kirkhill]

My concern is with Podemos, Beppo, Tsipras and Corbyn politics entering into this election.  In a sense they are an extension of the Obama Hope-Change campaign.  In Calgary we have had the Nenshi campaigns. 

And it is not just a left wing phenomenon - Sweden, Netherlands, Belgium, Hungary.

Tom Mulcair or Trudeau could be beneficiaries.  It could also be somebody breaking out of the backfield - previously unknown.

On the plus side for the CPC - David Cameron managed to campaign successfully against those very threats.

Anyone seen any itinerant Aussies in Ottawa recently?

 

[Rocky Mountains]

All under 30, and all have said the same thing; the old guy and the smarmy "some growing up to do" line has done more harm than it has good. Each of them feels the add is saying young = stupid, and honestly I can't disagree.  I know it's us cranky old farts that keep the conservatives ticking over, but today's youngsters are tomorrow's cranky old farts.

The ads sure seem to be working.  I suspect many young people will figure out the ads are more about Trudeau's Bozo eruptions than anything else.  The "growing up to do" comment is because saying "the guy's a moron" might be too negative.

 

[George Wallace]

..........  The "growing up to do" comment is because saying "the guy's a moron" might be too negative.

;D

Yes.  We don't want to get too negative, too early in the game.

 

[Good2Golf]

Getting back to the "just not ready" TV spots for a second.  I've spoken to my kids, 3 out 4 capable of making a semi informed decision, the fourth being autistic and quite clearly the happiest of any of them. All under 30, and all have said the same thing; the old guy and the smarmy "some growing up to do" line has done more harm than it has good. Each of them feels the add is saying young = stupid, and honestly I can't disagree.  I know it's us cranky old farts that keep the conservatives ticking over, but today's youngsters are tomorrow's cranky old farts.

Kat, if your young'ns are taking the "some growing up to do" line personally, they may still be developing the thick skin you have...they'll get there, but may need some gently, lovingly-applied fear, sarcasm and ridicule the next time they come by the house looking for sympathy.    That being said, unless the "old fart's" line gets them motivated to at least think about why the ordained Young Dauphin is drawing fire for being in-experienced, and do something about it, they are exactly the type of folks that the people their old man voted for, are counting on.  ;D  That said, I'm sure that in due course, perhaps a few elections down the road, they'll perhaps see things differently.*

Regards
G2G

* - like old farts do

 

[suffolkowner]

The he's just not ready ads have actually been driving me a little nuts and almost make me want to vote Liberal out of spite, but then I calm down. It could be because it just seems overplayed to me. I mean I'm not sure that Trudeau is ready, actually, when he should be the most ready considering his upbringing and it is that which I find the most disappointing.

 

[Good2Golf]

The he's just not ready ads have actually been driving me a little nuts and almost make me want to vote Liberal out of spite, but then I calm down. It could be because it just seems overplayed to me. I mean I'm not sure that Trudeau is ready, actually, when he should be the most ready considering his upbringing and it is that which I find the most disappointing.

It's less disappointing when you think of young Justin simply as a branding veneer.  Kind of like Bush junior was a veneer for the command team behind him.  :nod:

G2G

 

[Acorn]

But remember, also, Acorn, that Nixon was a brilliant strategist who was, almost uniquely post Eisenhower, able to see America's vital interests in an ever shifting global context and act effectively (e.g. towards China) to promote and secure them. Yes, Nixon was, as Harper is, a deeply flawed human being, as are we all, but he also had remarkable strengths ~  complex and contradictory are just two of the terms used to describe him, I think they apply to Stephen Harper, too.

Will Stephen Harper be known for anything as extraordinary as Nixon in China: The Week That Changed the World? No, I think not, but nor should he be reviled, as Nixon still is, for lawless political chicanery.

Fair comment - Harper is "Nixon Lite" all the flaws, but without the same level of strength, or willingness to cross the line.

He'll join Cretien, among other PMs as one who didn't put the ship on the rocks, but doesn't have any stand out accomplishment, even if it's something as simple as McKenzie-King's longevity. Though maybe Cretien can take credit for fiscal responsibility when  needed - how's that for galling?

 

[Good2Golf]

Chretien, back-street fighter as he was, recognized early on that for as much as he truly despised Paul Martin Sr., that PM Jr. was the right man to get Canada's fiscal house back in order, so Chretien whipped him for all he was worth, then kicked him in the teeth during the painfully protracted handing over of the LPC reigns.