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Election 2015

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David Akin (Sun News) posted this (from iPolitics):

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Decided and leaning, only ~ undecideds not counted

NDP and CPC continue to "grow" their support, Liberals continue to fall.
 
Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Ottawa Citizen is some advice, very good advice, in my opinion, for Justin Trudeau, but it's from a highly suspect source (Andrew MacDougall, a former communications director in Stephen Harper's PMO):

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/politics/macdougall-some-sincere-advice-for-justin-trudeau?hootPostID=3dedef9104005b845021b0b59473951f
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Some (sincere) advice for Justin Trudeau

ANDREW MACDOUGALL

Published on: July 31, 2015

We’re less than a week out from the first election debate and Major Tom Mulcair is still defying ground control at the top of the polls.

How thru the looking glass are we with the NDP? Well, Mr. Mulcair – i.e. the leader of the party that has never met someone else’s dollar it couldn’t spend – this week topped a poll on which leader would most positively impact the economy.

This isn’t how it was supposed to be. Everyone knows that Stephen Harper is Mr. Economy and Justin Trudeau was meant to march at the front of the change jamboree.

With Mr. Mulcair so far resisting the urge to knock himself down a peg, what can the Prime Minister or Mr. Trudeau do to arrest the NDP?

The Prime Minister doesn’t need any advice from me; he’s a veteran campaigner and has the might of the state to back him up; witness the millions of baby bucks currently flowing into parents’ bank accounts. He’s also got the heavy artillery of the Conservative Party to blitz the opposition with advertising.

Which leaves the battle-untested Justin Trudeau.

All things considered, Trudeau probably isn’t looking to take advice from another former Harper comms director after the last one he listened to blew an Eve Adams shaped hole in his credibility. But as someone with a sincere interest in seeing a competitive Liberal Party that is able to siphon votes off the NDP, I thought I’d offer my thoughts.

Let’s start with the basics: fire up your team. You’re the front man but it’s not a one-man band. And, between us, Canadians aren’t exactly hot for Trudeau at the moment.

Despite being dusted the last time they went on the hustings, the Liberal Party still has some experienced hands. Listen to people like Scott Brison, Marc Garneau, Stéphane Dion, and Ralph Goodale. A strong team also provides an effective contrast with Mr. Harper.

Second, keep showing serious and sustained love to your army of volunteers. Voter turnout has been declining election over election and this time won’t be any different. In this demotivated world you’re going to need a team of killers who will work day and night to identify and pull your vote.

You can rest assured the Conservatives will be pulling theirs – it’ll be them against the world. And with the opposition dangling vote reform in their policy windows, a loss at this election could toast first past the post, and with it any prospect of future majority Conservative governments. That alone should get even the most jaded Conservative out of bed.

Of course, the Conservatives also know which buttons to press with their base.

What’s less clear is what motivates the Liberal mind. It has traditionally been a hatred of Tories coupled with a (hefty) dose of entitlement, but that was also in an era when moral victories were what mattered to the leaders of the NDP. Mulcair has his sights set higher.

Trudeau then needs to give his troops a simplified set of marching orders.

After having operated for months as a policy free zone, Trudeau has now dumped dozens of disparate dictates on his followers’ heads. And he’s done it when most of them weren’t paying attention.

He should use the drop of the writ to whittle them down to a more manageable list. Harper very famously scored with five priorities. In contrast, Paul Martin made everything – and hence nothing – a priority. It’s time to pick the policies that get the best response – whether that’s the revised child support or ethics reforms – and push them morning, noon and night.

But even with strong senior counsel, a motivated team, and a sharpened offer, the election will require a better performing Trudeau than the one we’ve witnessed over the past year.

There can be no more gaffes if Trudeau is to have the last laugh. It’s time to show the same discipline that won the Liberal leadership.

Instead of babbling how rich you are and how much you don’t need your childcare cheque, just tell Canadians that you have a better solution. Instead of talking about self-balancing budgets, show Canadians how you’ll balance yours.

This last piece of advice should land easily in a teacher’s ear: study your ass off ahead of the Maclean’s debate.

Canadians haven’t really been paying attention to the Liberal slide in the polls. The start of a campaign is one of those rare times when many tune in. It will be a second chance for Trudeau to make a first impression.

What’s clear is that if Trudeau doesn’t land some early campaign blows, it will quickly become the Harper vs. Mulcair show, and he’ll be left to take his own walk in the snow.

Andrew MacDougall is the Senior Executive Consultant at MSLGROUP London and is a former director of communications to Prime Minister Stephen Harper.


I am, like Andrew MacDougall ~ and there should be many of us in the Conservative ranks ~ "someone with a sincere interest in seeing a competitive Liberal Party that is able to siphon votes off the NDP," I go even farther: I want the Liberal Party, not the NDP, to be the alternative, government-in-waiting, ready to take over when, NOT IF, the CPC becomes old, stale, corrupt and in need of a rest, likely in or before 2019.

 
More bad news for M Trudeau: CBC News reports that "While the NDP did initially agree in principle to attending the consortium debate held by Canada's biggest broadcasters, it now says it will only attend that debate and any others if the prime minister is present ... The Conservatives had already declined to participate in the consortium debate saying they had received too many invitations."

Thomas Mulcair only wants to go toe-to-toe with Prime Minister Harper, not with the kid who leads the third party.

That leaves the consortium (representing the Laurentian Consensus), and M Trudeau, with Gilles Duceppe and Elizabeth May  ::)

That probably means that M Trudeau will, also, have to drop out, disappointing that segment of his base that worships the CBC, and being seen, yet again, to be a follower, not a leader.
 
I think that Brian Gable, in the Globe and Mail, understands what must be worrying the NDP's campaign tacticians ...

         
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          Source: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/editorial-cartoons-for-august-2015/article25744115/
 
"The fact hazy opinion of people who can not make reliable economic predictions but always seem to be able to explain the past is we are not recovering as fast as we could be, and this in a large part due to government policy."
 
E.R. Campbell said:
Not quite, for me, but I'm a lot older than most and I cast my first ballot in the early 1960s ~ for Prime Minister Pearson's Liberals, but I never voted Liberal again after Pearson retired. I disagreed with Pearson's Liberals on social policy, they were "lurching left" at that time, but I disagreed even more with John Diefenbaker's Conservatives on on several key issues, including his own leadership (but not on civil rights where the Tories always were out in front of the Liberals, nor on his vision for the North).

But, you're right, I will be conflicted, too ... but, I am convinced that Prime Minister Harper's Conservatives are the least bad choice, even though I disagree, in a few cases quite vehemently, with about half of their policies ~ in so far as I understand them.

My first ballot was cast about 20 years later I think.

I'm conflicted because I don't see the Harper Conservatives as the least bad choice. A while ago I would have cleaved to the Liberals as the viable alternative, but I have the same issues as you with Justin Trudeau. Mr Mulcair has the baggage of the NDP, though I acknowledge the federal party isn't the same as provincial parties (for Brad - Kamloops is a long way off, but my federal voting was always geared to kicking Nelson Riis to the curb). Still Mr Mulcair has in the past had a bit of foot-in-mouth that makes me wonder (the 911 Truther thing in particular) and the NDP as a party creeps me out.

The current government is pursuing policies that seem, to me, to be 1. easy, and 2. populist, all with the sole goal of retaining power, rather than the benefit of the country. I suppose I should be cynical and assume that's what all parties do, but I'm having a hard time believing the Conservatives aren't doing it to the exclusion of everything else.

Trudeau is shallow, and inexperienced, but, as we see in the article quoted earlier, he has a few (quite a few) experienced people who can give good advice if he's willing to follow it and stop sounding like some new age fool. Harper, on the other hand, has the experience, but seems to have a deficit of good advice (and, I'll add, seems reluctant to accept any advice anyway).

Do I vote for the boy advised by experienced men, or the experienced man advised by boys? Or, the third choice, the experienced man leading a party that has never governed nationally and has other issues?

 
Acorn said:
The current government is pursuing policies that seem, to me, to be 1. easy, and 2. populist, all with the sole goal of retaining power, rather than the benefit of the country. I suppose I should be cynical and assume that's what all parties do, but I'm having a hard time believing the Conservatives aren't doing it to the exclusion of everything else.

^This.  This is what is driving me nuts.  Although my opinions are not nearly as informed or nuanced as many in this thread, the "doing it at the exclusions of everything else" is what I was trying to get at in my earlier post when I called the Cons "ham fisted" in their approach.  They lack a lot of sophistication.  Their policies, particularly the way they go about them, have begun to offend me.  I can only conclude that the CPC doesn't feel the need to attract any new voters.  Aside from the most recent of immigrants who may not yet be up to speed on our national parties, I can't imagine there is anyone in Canada who is considering voting conservative if they haven't already done so previously.  It appears to be the opposite - conservative voters considering voting on the left side of the spectrum.  I don;t really know what their numbers are like, so maybe they actually don;t need any new votes and just need to keep the left split.

I agree with what Kady O'malley said tonight that perhaps the Cons have caused too much support to bleed from the LPC to the NDP and they actually need that balance to change a bit. 

sort of related: I heard it mentioned that the U.S republican debates are airing the same night as the first Canadian debate and that despite the apparent high level of interest in our own debates, the opportunity to see what else comes out of Donald Trump's mouth might be too much to resist, thus drawing some Canadian viewers there.  I will record them both but will likely watch the US debate.
 
>The current government is pursuing policies that seem, to me, to be 1. easy, and 2. populist, all with the sole goal of retaining power, rather than the benefit of the country.

"5 Priorities" worked when they were fresh and the Liberals were tired and corrupt, but was only good enough for a minority.  Despite Adscam, the Liberals pulled almost 37% in 2004 and a bit over 30% in 2006.  And there was something new: it was the first Conservative government of the internet era, and the expressed bitterness on the centre left and left was voluble.  (At the time I figured it was spillover of the universal disaffection for Bush.  Conservatives = Republicans; therefore, hate them.)  I haven't forgotten that the new government was under attack from day 1, and I doubt Harper has either.  Canadians used to take transitions in stride - not any more.  So - a defensive posture lacking boldness and substance while marking time.

Whatever the CPC might have that is "deep", I doubt they will reveal it this far out from the election - people who report Martin's Health Accord as Harper's Fault and simultaneously blame the government for spending too much and spending too little will not really give it a fair hearing.  And I believe the early start isn't intended merely to exploit a funding advantage, but to also change the conditions for non-party pamphleteers.

There is a "benefit of the country" program backbone there that is easy to see and follow - Paul Wells in Macleans frequently covers it - but it depends on whether you agree the federal government needs to be involved in fewer aspects of life rather than more.

Trudeau wanted to make French Canadians more equal participants in Canada and to patriate the BNA.  Mulroney wanted free trade and the GST and to paper over QC's never-ending resentment.  Harper wants a federal government that does a few important things well and respects the federal-provincial and society-individual boundaries.

Further: from Stephen Gordon at Worthwhile Canadian Initiative, which also refers to a Macleans article he wrote at the end of last year.
 
Acorn said:
My first ballot was cast about 20 years later I think.

I'm conflicted because I don't see the Harper Conservatives as the least bad choice. A while ago I would have cleaved to the Liberals as the viable alternative, but I have the same issues as you with Justin Trudeau. Mr Mulcair has the baggage of the NDP, though I acknowledge the federal party isn't the same as provincial parties (for Brad - Kamloops is a long way off, but my federal voting was always geared to kicking Nelson Riis to the curb). Still Mr Mulcair has in the past had a bit of foot-in-mouth that makes me wonder (the 911 Truther thing in particular) and the NDP as a party creeps me out.

The current government is pursuing policies that seem, to me, to be 1. easy, and 2. populist, all with the sole goal of retaining power, rather than the benefit of the country. I suppose I should be cynical and assume that's what all parties do, but I'm having a hard time believing the Conservatives aren't doing it to the exclusion of everything else.

Trudeau is shallow, and inexperienced, but, as we see in the article quoted earlier, he has a few (quite a few) experienced people who can give good advice if he's willing to follow it and stop sounding like some new age fool. Harper, on the other hand, has the experience, but seems to have a deficit of good advice (and, I'll add, seems reluctant to accept any advice anyway).

Do I vote for the boy advised by experienced me, or the experienced man advised by boys? Or, the third choice, the experienced man leading a party that has never governed nationally and has other issues?



It is the cynicism in our political "business," in the PR machine that has replaced policy making, that bothers, indeed frightens me and it is (was, 2+ years ago) Liberal cynicism that I found most sickening  :boke: . Many (most?) Liberals (and I know a few, including one or two "insiders") understood that Canada, in 2015 was not going to be like Canada in 1975; they knew that their whole party needed renewal, top to bottom; but they chose the easy way out and elected the vacuous pretty boy with the big name in the (entirely cynical) hope that could ride him back into power and put off the necessary rethink on policies.

I believe that if we get a Trudeau led Liberal government we are going to get a repeat of Kathleen Wynne, policy-by-policy, (because the Trudeau team is, largely, composed of McGuinty-Wynne Liberals) and I also believe that will be somewhere between bad and disastrous for Canada. If we get a Mulcair led NDP government I have less fear in the early going, but I am not convinced that M Mulcair can reshape the NDP movement into a mainstream, centrist governing party. If we're lucky he can keep the economy in the hands of the centrists and confine his own "loony left" (and it's a large wing of that party) to social and, maybe, foreign and defence policy. If we get a Harper led Conservative government then I suspect we get a new CPC leader in 2016 and, I think, we will get a repeat of the cynical vote buying we've seen for the last year, but with a commitment to free trade and a measure of frugality that I also believe is good, and necessary, medicine for our economy.

On balance, and since I think protest votes are a poor second choice, I will hold my nose and vote Conservative.
 
Sorry, CPC, this new attack ad, against M Mulcair just doesn't work:

    1. It's a cheap, second rate imitation of the "Just Not Ready" ad; and

    2. It doesn't have a defining item ~ except for the envelope stuffed with cash (which reminds us of (Conservative) Mulroney) it could be describing Stephen Harper.

 
Well, the news.gc.ca web page seems to have stopped it's sausage-like cranking out of announcements  (almost 200 yesterday alone) - countdown to writ drop?

This past week, 694 news releases.
Same week last year:  147

Week of 5 January 2015:  110
Week of 12 January 2015:  202
 
Part 1 of 2

John Ibbitson, in this column which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the [i[]Globe and Mail[/i][, gives us, in excerpts from his new book (due out in Aug), and overview of Stephen Harper ~ a Lion in Autumn, Ibbitson calls him ~ and his impact on Canadian politics and on Canada, itself:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/stephen-harper-the-making-of-a-prime-minister/article25809825/
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Stephen Harper: The making of a prime minister

JOHN IBBITSON
The Globe and Mail

Last updated Saturday, Aug. 01, 2015

He is a lion in autumn, weaker than in his prime, but still a force of nature. He faces his fifth, and perhaps final, test as national leader. But in a way, the result won’t matter. Whether Stephen Harper wins or loses the general election of October 19 is moot. He has already reshaped Canada. And Canada will not easily be changed back.

He has made the federal government smaller, less intrusive, less ambitious. He has made Canada a less Atlantic and a more Pacific nation.

He has brought peace to a fractious federation. Under his leadership, Canada speaks with a very different voice in the world. He has also given us a very different politics – more intensely partisan, more ideological, more polarizing. This, too, is unlikely to change, now that people are used to it.

And then there is Harper himself. Slow to trust and quick to take offence, brooding and resentful at times, secretive beyond reason, perhaps the most introverted person ever to seek high office in this country, he has nonetheless defeated a plethora of challengers to give Canada its first ever truly conservative government, with profound consequences for the country. He has brought the West for the first time fully into the life of the nation, while making his Conservatives the only conservative party in the developed world broadly supported by immigrants. And he has lasted a decade in office, no mean feat in this democracy or any other.

But despite those many years in the public eye, who he is, and why he does what he does, remains elusive– even though such an understanding is crucial for voters who may be unsure of how to cast their ballot. How did Steve Harper become Stephen Harper?

THE YOUNG HARPER

If, as essayist and editor B.K. Sandwell claimed, “Toronto has no social classes / only the Masseys and the masses,” the Masseys and their friends went to “Trins.” Bishop John Strachan founded the college in 1851 in bitter opposition to the Upper Canadian government, which had decided that King’s College, which Strachan had also founded, should be secular rather than Anglican. From that day onward, Trinity has fostered a reputation for exclusivity and exclusion. Small, cloistered, its architecture and mores a self-conscious imitation of Oxford or Cambridge, the college educated the sons and daughters of the elite, many of whom had already submitted their children to the academic excellence and social terrors of private boarding schools.

“We are the salt of the earth, so give ear to us,” the men and women of college loved to proclaim in their fake Oxbridge accents:

No new ideas shall ever come near to us!

Orthodox! Catholic!

Crammed with divinity!

Damn the dissenters, Hurrah for old Trinity!

Students wore black academic gowns. At the men’s residence, jacket and tie were required for dinner. The food was appalling, but you could leave your coffee cup pretty much anywhere you liked, and someone would silently pick it up and return it to Strachan Hall.

The rituals of the college were bizarre, but proudly held. They included “pouring out,” in which second-year students would forcibly eject from the dining hall any man of college who annoyed his neighbours at the table; “deportations,” in which second-year students would kidnap first-year students and leave them stranded, sometimes naked, in a park, at Centre Island, or even in another town; and Episkopon, in which the ghost of Bishop Strachan visited the men and women of the college to chastise them for their erring ways, through skits and songs composed by a committee that sought to push the boundaries of sexual – especially homophobic – humour.

Initiation was hell. Days of drinking and hazing culminated in the Cake Fight, in which the students of first year would seek to push through a phalanx of second-year students guarding the gate at Henderson Tower.

Though the tower protected the sophomores, the freshmen were drenched in an indescribably foul concoction from the roof above that dedicated students had been preparing all summer. It typically included beer, urine, scraps from the kitchen, yeast, and anything else that could be found and then left to ferment in the heat. Only after surviving this misery were freshmen and [fresh]women entitled to don their gowns.

Trinity also offered an excellent education, and the camaraderie of a small college filled with exceptional students. Rather than eating cafeteria-style, the students were served dinner, which brought the entire college together each night (the men at Trinity; the women at their own residence, St. Hilda’s), and the discussions and debates this fostered could be the best part of a student’s education. But a shy freshman arriving from a suburban, middle-class background, educated at public schools, already suspicious of the Tory descendants of the Family Compact with their snobbish disdain for anyone Not Like Us, could be traumatized by such an environment.

Steve Harper lasted two weeks.

Or maybe three. No one can remember exactly; this isn’t a part of his life that Harper prefers to talk about. But he was clearly not happy at Trinity. He was put off by the huge, impersonal classes of the University of Toronto. He didn’t like the professors who warned the students that the person sitting beside them would be gone by Christmas. He didn’t like the pretensions of many of the students. He didn’t like any of it.

Robert Harper does not believe that Harper’s decision to quit university was sudden; in fact, he believes it was something that had been brewing for more than a year, that Steve didn’t know what he wanted to do with his life and wasn’t prepared to commit to university until he had answered that question.

But whatever was going through his mind in the months leading up to his decision to quit, the fact remains that in his first encounter with the Upper Canadian elite – the young men and women who would go on to run the businesses, lead the political parties, manage the bureaucracies, and shape the arts and academies of English Central Canada – Stephen Harper decided he wanted none of it, or them. He could have tried to fit in to this new world, which was closed but less impermeable than in the past, but instead he fled from it. His decision to reject that world, and his sense of exclusion from it, would shape his life and his politics. It marked him.

It also produced a deep ambivalence toward academia that would shape the next decade of his life. It would be three years before he returned to university – an eternity for someone that young and that intelligent – and he would drop in and out of school repeatedly during his years as a graduate student. All his life, Stephen Harper has resisted taking orders from other people. Starting with professors.

Or maybe starting with his dad. The news that he was quitting university did not go down well with Joe and Margaret. They couldn’t believe their ears. Their eldest son had always worked so hard and done so well. How could he have decided to quit, and so quickly?

Joe had insisted that the boys pay their own university tuition, to instill the notion that a degree was a means to an end, and the end was a good job. In high school, Steve had worked as an office boy in a provincial government office, and as a summer clerk at the local LCBO to help pay for his tuition and books. If he wasn’t going to go to university, then he was going to have to earn a living. But doing what? He was 19 and had only a high school education, but he didn’t care. The one thing that both Steve and his father agreed on was that he needed to get a job.

Gordon Shaw was overseeing offices for Imperial Oil in both Edmonton and Calgary. He got a call from Joe Harper, who confessed he had a problem with his son. “We can’t get along with him at home,” Shaw recalls his friend saying. Was there a job for Steve out there? There was – for an office clerk, in the Edmonton office. Shaw extended the offer. Steve took it immediately. At that point in their relationship, it appears, both Joe and Steve needed to put a couple of time zones between them.

At certain crucial times in his life, Stephen Harper has displayed a tendency to prefer flight over fight. If a situation becomes untenable, he simply abandons the situation, rather than trying to change it to his advantage.

Over the years, Harper learned to curb this tendency, but he hadn’t yet when he was 19. The same week he quit school, he flew west to a new city, a new life, and a new job – though not much of one.

Steve Harper was on his own.

TEMPER

There are disagreeable aspects to Stephen Harper’s personality. He is prone to mood swings. He can fly off the handle. He goes into funks, sometimes for long periods. He is suspicious of others. The public is aware of these traits mostly through what’s written and reported in the media. In public, Harper is almost invariably calm, measured, and careful in what he says and how he says it. Yet none of us, watching him, have any difficulty believing that this closed, repressed personality is capable of lashing out from time to time. We all get the vibe. His personality also comes out in the tactics that the Conservative Party uses against its enemies, both perceived and real – which are, in a word, ruthless.

As with most of us, Harper’s character flaws are the reverse side of his character strengths: One would not exist without the other. He has been Prime Minister for a decade not despite these qualities but because of them.

The most cited characteristic of Stephen Harper is his legendary temper.

He can descend into rages, sometimes over trivial things, at other times during moments of crisis. A former aide to Harper recalls a time during the 2004 election campaign when things suddenly started to go very badly for the Conservatives, for reasons we’ll examine later. Harper was on the campaign bus, in Quebec, leading a conference call with senior campaign staff back at headquarters in Ottawa. “He was very, very angry,” the former aide recalls. “It was: ‘We are fucking going to do this, and you are fucking going to do that and I want to see this fucking thing done right now.’ And then he paused and asked: ‘And why does nothing happen around here unless I say ‘fuck’? ”

Harper’s temper manifests itself in different ways. Some days, he just gets up on the wrong side of the bed. Other times, he flies off the handle when confronted with bad news. That’s when the decibel level goes through the roof and the f-bombs start flying. Harper’s reaction when he was told in April, 2008, that the RCMP had raided Conservative Party headquarters in connection with the in-and-out affair, carrying out boxes of material past the TV cameras, was wondrous to behold.

But when Harper is really angry at you, he’s very calm. He looks you straight in the eye and tells you how you’ve failed him, and if you are a faithful follower, you simply want to die. The state beyond that is even worse. He simply cuts you out. He doesn’t speak to you, doesn’t reply to your messages, freezes you out of meetings. At this point, you should be pursuing a new career opportunity.

Another of Harper’s less attractive qualities is a perceived lack of loyalty toward others. One-time political adviser Tom Flanagan points out that Harper has betrayed or estranged many in the conservative movement who were at one time senior to him – Joe Clark, Jim Hawkes, Brian Mulroney, Preston Manning. This, Flanagan believes, is the product of Harper’s need to dominate whatever environment he is in. “I think he has this very strong instinct to be in charge,” he said. “He really wants to be the alpha figure, and he’s achieved that. So part of that is to dispose of anyone who might be considered to be a rival in some sense or another.”

Flanagan also asserts that “there is a huge streak of paranoia in Stephen. And he attracts people who have a paranoid streak. And if you don’t have one to begin with, you develop it, because you’re constantly hearing theories.” At its root, “looking back, there’s a visceral reluctance to trust the motives of other people,” Flanagan concludes. “He often overcomes his initial suspicions and will sign on to other people’s ideas. But the initial response is always one of suspicion.” Flanagan believes Harper is prone to depression. “He can be suspicious, secretive, and vindictive, prone to sudden eruptions of white-hot rage over meaningless trivia,” he wrote in 2014, “at other times falling into week-long depressions in which he is incapable of making decisions.”

Concerning Flanagan’s contention that Harper is prone to paranoia or depression, [one of his oldest friends, John] Weissenberger simply replies: “Bullshit.” Harper does not suffer from depression. Depression is a clinical condition that may be unrelated to external events. When Harper goes into a funk, there’s always a good reason. Those funks can be long and deep, combining introspection with sulking with a sudden loss of self-confidence. But he always comes out of them, and over the years he’s done an increasingly better job of keeping them under control.

End of Part 1 of 2

 
Part 2 of 2

CONTROL

In early February, 2006, Derek Burney sat across a desk from Harper, who was reading the mandate letters Burney had prepared for the new cabinet. Each letter was three pages. The first reminded the new minister of the Conservatives’ governing priorities: tax reduction, the child care benefit, the Accountability Act, reducing patient wait times, criminal-justice reform. The second page outlined the minister’s particular responsibilities. The third page contained what Burney called the “mother of God” paragraphs, reminding the minister of his or her duty to act with integrity, to avoid conflicts of interest, to adhere to directives coming from the Prime Minister’s Office, and to be prepared for instant dismissal if the minister committed any act that tarnished the image of the government, the party, or, especially, the Prime Minister. Burney had routinely prepared these documents when he was chief of staff to Brian Mulroney, who paid little attention to them. Now Burney sat silently as Harper went through each letter, line by line. By the time he had finished, the pages were festooned with changes. “I don’t agree with this,” Harper explained to Burney, or, “This isn’t in our election platform.” Burney shrugged. “It’s your government.” Yes it was. This is how Stephen Harper would govern for the next decade.

Some leaders like to micro-manage; others prefer to delegate. Each approach has its strengths and weaknesses. But Harper’s determination to grasp all of the levers, and even the widgets, of the federal government is matched by an equal determination to control the flow – or rather, the trickle – of information coming out of the government. Bureaucrats are prohibited from speaking to reporters. Scientists are prohibited from releasing the results of their research. Ambassadors have been ordered to obtain permission from the Centre before representing Canada in meetings. (The mantra from the PMO, as diplomats bitterly put it, is: Do nothing without instructions. Do not expect instructions.) Access to Information requests are routinely held up for so long that by the time the information is released, it’s no longer of any use, and the pages are mostly blacked out in any case.

Although they are in fact separate issues, this general air of secretiveness gets mixed up with the Conservatives’ willingness to demonize opponents. In fact, the Tories don’t have opponents; they have enemies. The Leader of the Liberal Party is an enemy. Judges who strike down their legislation are enemies. Union leaders are enemies. Authors and other artists who criticize the Conservatives are enemies. Journalists who cast a more-than-occasional critical eye on the government are enemies. And toward his enemies Stephen Harper bars no holds.

The Conservatives’ autocracy, secretiveness, and cruelty, critics accuse, debase politics to a level that threatens the very foundations of Canadian democracy. “Hardly anything in this world hints of Putinism more than Harperism,” columnist Ralph Surette of the Halifax Chronicle Herald opined.

Let’s consider the bill of indictment, starting with the accusation of autocracy. Over the course of the past 10 years, this government has had repeated run-ins with Elections Canada. The biggest was an in-and-out money shuffle, which involved sending funds from the national office to ridings during the 2006 election; the ridings then used the funds for, in effect, national campaign advertising, thus doing an end-run around the spending limits. Elections Canada laid charges against campaign chair Doug Finley and others, but the matter was dropped after the party pleaded guilty and paid a $230,000 fine. And then there was the robocalls affair, which badly tarnished the government, even if it turned out that voter fraud had been limited to the riding of Guelph. The Tories’ response: the 2013 Fair Elections Act, which, among other things, limited the power of Elections Canada to investigate allegations of election fraud and to promote voter turnout.

Twice the Conservatives prorogued Parliament for partisan political reasons: the first time to avoid defeat at the hands of the opposition parties in 2008; the second, to shut down an inconvenient inquiry into Afghan detainees. But there were many other, less egregious offences, such as the secret 200-page handbook issued to committee chairs on how to prevent opposition politicians from dominating parliamentary committees, and how to shut down the committees’ business if they succeeded. As for the Harper government being secretive, that puts the matter charitably.

A few examples: Among other efforts to muzzle government scientists working on environmental issues from presenting their research, Environment Canada scientist Mark Tushingham was prohibited from speaking publicly about a novel he had written that centred on climate change. Along with its notorious reluctance to reply to Access to Information requests, the government eliminated the Access to Information database (the Coordination of Access to Information Requests System), which had listed every request for access to information, citing a lack of demand for its contents. Further, the government sought to vet the news releases even of such independent agencies as the Auditor-General. In his most public act of secrecy, Stephen Harper simply refuses to talk to the media more than he absolutely must, and he rarely must. His ministers also avoid the press. And of course, who could forget Nigel Wright’s secret cheque to settle the accounts of Senator Mike Duffy?

So what to make of it all?

By any objective comparative standard, Canada remains, today, one of the freest nations on earth. The Economist considers it the freest in the G8. As for freedom of the press, Reporters Without Borders ranks Canada the 18th-freest nation on earth, which sounds mediocre only until you realize that Canada, by this organization’s measure, ranks far ahead of Great Britain (33), France (39), or the United States (46).

But have the three Harper governments been autocratic, secretive, and cruel? The answer is yes, sometimes. At other times they have exhibited other traits. At all times, they have reflected the qualities of Stephen Harper and the circumstances he confronts.

From his boyhood in Leaside, Harper learned not to trust those beyond the inner circle of family and close friends. That circle is not much larger today. Relations with those outside the wall can be cordial, but they are rarely based on implicit trust, an emotional resource that Harper invests in only a very few. And his encyclopedic memory includes not only the history of maritime border disputes, or who starred in what film; it also includes every act by every person who has slighted, offended, or betrayed him. Such acts are never forgotten and only rarely forgiven. Stephen Harper holds grudges.

He has never successfully cultivated the social skill of pretending to connect. He has difficulty feigning interest. His associates talk of him sometimes simply turning his back and walking away from them while they are in mid-sentence. He rarely displays much ability or desire to be collegial, or even polite. This tendency toward abruptness gets worse when he is tired or under stress.

Politics involves the exercise of power. There are a great many people who seek to take advantage of that power, or to take it away. Harper’s reluctance to trust has served him well in his climb to power and his decade of exercising it as Prime Minister. But because his suspicion of the intentions of others is so overt, those who serve under him inhabit an environment of suspicion, and are, or become, suspicious as well – the culture of paranoia that Tom Flanagan observed when he worked for Stephen Harper. The reservoir of goodwill in the Prime Minister’s Office is shallow and quickly drained.

That said, if Harper is suspicious about the world around him, he has reason to be. As Joseph Heller famously said, “Just because you’re paranoid doesn’t mean they aren’t after you.” Harper sees himself as an outsider because he is an outsider. He is from the West, but most of the country lives near the Great Lakes or St. Lawrence River. He is from the suburbs, but the Laurentian elites generally live downtown. Harper is hostile toward these elites, and they are hostile toward him. He is contemptuous of progressive academics, and they reciprocate. He distrusts the judiciary, and the judiciary has vindicated that distrust by striking down parts of his law-and-order agenda. The gala-goers he derides spit out his name in the foyer at intermission. When Stephen Harper rejected the University of Toronto, when he rejected the life of a Tory political aide in Ottawa, when he embraced the West, he fled from the commanding heights of the Central Canadian academic, cultural, and political landscape. He is the embodiment of alienation. But in Western Canada and even in parts of Central Canada, there are millions who feel equally alienated. They tend to live in suburbs or in towns or on farms. And they tend to vote for him.

John Ibbitson’s Stephen Harper will be available as an e-book on Tuesday and in bookstores on Aug. 18.

Excerpted from
Stephen Harper by John Ibbitson. Copyright © 2015 John Ibbitson. Published by Signal/McClelland & Stewart, a division of Penguin Random House Canada Limited. Reproduced by arrangement with the Publisher. All rights reserved.


I really don't think Stephen Harper, per se has done as much as Mr Ibbitson suggests to change Canada. I think Canada changed, largely by itself and, in some measure, in reaction to changes, social, demographic, political and economic, imposed by previous Liberal regimes. I believe that Stephen Harper simply reacted, in his turn, to the changes and, as Palph Klein put it, saw the direction in which the crowd was going and dashed out front to lead it there.
 
Perhaps "likeability" is over-rated.  MacKenzie King was PM for about 25 years (discontinuous service).  I don't think many would admit to having liked the man.

Charisma may get you elected but does it get you re-elected?
 
>He has never successfully cultivated the social skill of pretending to connect. He has difficulty feigning interest. His associates talk of him sometimes simply turning his back and walking away from them while they are in mid-sentence. He rarely displays much ability or desire to be collegial, or even polite. This tendency toward abruptness gets worse when he is tired or under stress.

That almost mirrors descriptions I have read of Pierre Trudeau.

>perhaps the most introverted person ever to seek high office in this country

This is the root.  A high degree of introversion often looks like dysfunction to people accustomed to or enthusiastic for the trivial and banal aspects of human interaction.  Think of it as "extrovert privilege".
 
ModlrMike said:
Advantage Harper?


Canada election 2015: NDP threatens to pull out of broadcasters' debates
Stephen Harper has already declined invitation from broadcast consortium

The NDP is telling Canada's biggest broadcasters to either get Stephen Harper into the debate or they are skipping out too.

CBC News has learned the NDP will only consider debate invitations until Friday, Aug. 7.


What it is, as I mentioned, is Disadvantage Trudeau ...

M Trudeau must, now, react to the lead taken by the other two; they, in other words, have the initiative and he is on the defensive ... both strategically and tactically.

Staying with the consortium (debating Gilles Duceppe and Elizabeth May  ::) ) will make his look like a fringe party candidate ~ bad move, even though it will please that segment of his support base that loves the CBC.

Dropping out of the consortium's debates will kill them, which is no real loss, but, worse for M Trudeau, it will make him look like the weak guy, the "last guy picked" for the team, the kid who always follows along after the big guys. It's not the image he needs to project.

 
E.R. Campbell said:
Dropping out of the consortium's debates will kill them, which is no real loss, but, worse for M Trudeau, it will make him look like the weak guy, the "last guy picked" for the team, the kid who always follows along after the big guys. It's not the image he needs to project.

His only real choice is to actively pull out NOW, (not even wait for the NDP to firm up, thereby seizing what could best be described as pretending to be #2 in the fight) and demonize Harper for his anti-democratical refusal to participate....Yound Dauphin should characterize his position as a withdrawal from an event that otherwise would hold little value as the real issue is challenging the horned, pointy-tailed and cloven-hoofed Harper...
 
E.R. Campbell said:
Sorry, CPC, this new attack ad, against M Mulcair just doesn't work:

    1. It's a cheap, second rate imitation of the "Just Not Ready" ad; and

    2. It doesn't have a defining item ~ except for the envelope stuffed with cash (which reminds us of (Conservative) Mulroney) it could be describing Stephen Harper.
The career politician swipe does not feel to work either, coming from the party with an aspiring career prime minister.
 
Brad Sallows said:
>He has never successfully cultivated the social skill of pretending to connect. He has difficulty feigning interest. His associates talk of him sometimes simply turning his back and walking away from them while they are in mid-sentence. He rarely displays much ability or desire to be collegial, or even polite. This tendency toward abruptness gets worse when he is tired or under stress.

That almost mirrors descriptions I have read of Pierre Trudeau.

>perhaps the most introverted person ever to seek high office in this country

This is the root.  A high degree of introversion often looks like dysfunction to people accustomed to or enthusiastic for the trivial and banal aspects of human interaction.  Think of it as "extrovert privilege".

Interesting take, especially considering no-one ever accused Trudeau Sr of being an introvert.

From Ibbitson's work quoted above it seems to me that Mr Harper is more like Richard Nixon - anger, funk, enemies, trust issues.
 
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