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Election 2015

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It's funny, when it comes to election advertising the one thing I can be grateful for living where I do, the only political ads I get are either attack ads against local politicians, or PAC ads targeting policy specific issues. And that is only if Virginia comes into play as a potential swing state. Even with all the money that gets plowed into the US Election process, advertising money gets spread strategically.

In Canadian elections, since we really vote for the leaders and party, and not the local candidate, advertising tends to be national in scope, so you get inundated with it (albeit for a limited period of time) regardless of where you reside.

 
Good2Golf said:
Kat, if your young'ns are taking the "some growing up to do" line personally, they may still be developing the thick skin you have...they'll get there, but may need some gently, lovingly-applied fear, sarcasm and ridicule the next time they come by the house looking for sympathy.  ;)  That being said, unless the "old fart's" line gets them motivated to at least think about why the ordained Young Dauphin is drawing fire for being in-experienced, and do something about it, they are exactly the type of folks that the people their old man voted for, are counting on.  ;D  That said, I'm sure that in due course, perhaps a few elections down the road, they'll perhaps see things differently.*

Regards
G2G


Actually, they agree with the sentiment, it's just the snidely condescending tone the old guy uses that's galling. Got to admit it sets my teeth on edge too, flashes me back to my grandmother when I was six.

* - like old farts do
 
cupper said:
In Canadian elections, since we really vote for the leaders and party, and not the local candidate, advertising tends to be national in scope, so you get inundated with it (albeit for a limited period of time) regardless of where you reside.
It's a subtle difference, but just because parties/leaders may be marketed cross country doesn't mean we vote for the parties/leaders - unless you're in the leader's riding.
 
milnews.ca said:
It's a subtle difference, but just because parties/leaders may be marketed cross country doesn't mean we vote for the parties/leaders - unless you're in the leader's riding.

And that is the unfortunate part. There are many deserving local candidates who should be elected, but lose because the riding is on a pro / anti party bent.
 
Kat Stevens said:
Actually, they agree with the sentiment, it's just the snidely condescending tone the old guy uses that's galling. Got to admit it sets my teeth on edge too, flashes me back to my grandmother when I was six.

Concur, KS.  The newest variant is even worse...they need to refresh the overall concept -- their latest spots are getting flakier.

G2G
 
Good2Golf said:
Concur, KS.  The newest variant is even worse...they need to refresh the overall concept -- their latest spots are getting flakier.

G2G


I agree, "Just Not Ready" almost certainly worked, maybe even worked very well ~ it defines M Trudeau, but it must be used sparingly. I expect (hope) to see a mix of "good" ads ~ good production values, simple "top" message with layers of more subtle messages, too, and highlighting positive Conservative policies/programmes ~ and attack ads, aimed at both Messers Mulcair and Trudeau.

I suspect the CPC might use more negative advertising, now, early in the campaign, to entice the LPC and NDP to overspend, early, on defensive response ads, and then use positive ads for several weeks and then end the campaign with a HUGE, mixed, advertising blitz: Harper = smart and reliable; Mulcair = giant deficits; Trudeau = confused and not (yet) ready.

It may be necessary to soften the attacks on M Trudeau, stressing, as the "Just Not Ready" ad does, that he might get better with time and experience, but "he's just not ready right now," thereby encouraging some left leaning Liberals to not shift over to the NDP.
 
Yjis article, which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail offers some reasons (highlighted) why the Conservatives may be attacking M Trudeau more than M Mulcair:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/two-thirds-of-canadians-votes-up-for-grabs-poll-suggests/article25819640/
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Sixty percent of Canadians’ votes up for grabs, poll suggests

CAMPBELL CLARK
The Globe and Mail

Published Monday, Aug. 03, 2015

It’s unsettled, unpredictable and wide open. This election campaign is not only a three-way race – most voters are still up for grabs.

Only 40 per cent of Canadians have picked a party and say that’s the only one they’ll consider. Most voters, three-fifths of the electorate, are still considering voting for two or more parties, or aren’t sure who they might pick, according to Nanos Research data from rolling surveys that provide an insight into potential swing votes. In fact, 20 per cent of those surveyed would still consider voting for any one of three or more parties.

It’s a sign that the relatively tight, nose-to-nose horse race masks a volatile electorate. Voters are still flirting with more than one option, and big swings are possible.

“Although people have leanings, they’re open to changing their mind,” said pollster Nik Nanos. “A campaign is a trial by fire for all the federal party leaders, and what this shows is how much damage a leader can do to his own campaign if he missteps.”

It’s not the same for every party.

After a decade in office, Mr. Harper’s Conservatives have the most devoted group of supporters, who are less likely to see other parties as an option. In fact, even when asked to list a second choice, 31.5 per cent of Conservative voters say they have none – more than the backers of any other party. At its core, Mr. Nanos said, the Conservatives have “an almost unshakeable base” that has stuck with the party through episodes like the Mike Duffy scandal.

But the Tories also have limited growth potential compared with the other two major parties: the pool of people who say they would consider voting Conservative is smaller.

Both the New Democrats and the Liberals have less committed support – and there’s a lot of crossover potential among supporters of the two parties. New Democrats tend to see the Liberals as their second choice, and vice versa.

“There’s a lot of cross-pollination between New Democrat and Liberal supporters, who are probably just seeing either of those parties as vehicles to try to stop Stephen Harper,” Mr. Nanos said.

The Nanos Research data also provides some potential clues as to why Mr. Harper’s Conservatives focused their pre-election advertising on knocking back Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, rather than taking aim at the new front-runner, the NDP’s Thomas Mulcair.

One reason is that weakening the NDP before the campaign would be more likely to help the Liberals than the Tories. Only 12 per cent of NDP supporters list the Conservatives as their second choice, while 40.6 per cent see the Liberals as the best alternative – so if voters leave Mr. Mulcair, the lion’s share can be expected to turn to Mr. Trudeau.

When the Liberals fall, however, the Conservatives can expect to do somewhat better, because 29.2 per cent of Liberal supporters rate the Tories second.


That still leaves Mr. Harper with a tough challenge to win a majority government, however. He doesn’t have that kind of level of support yet, Mr. Nanos noted, and in order to emerge as the clear winner, he needs both Mr. Mulcair and Mr. Trudeau to do poorly. Right now, besting one of them mostly helps the other. His Conservatives are rarely voters’ second choice.

For Mr. Mulcair, that’s also the best path to victory: he clearly has to target Mr. Harper, the incumbent, but his party is most likely to gain if the Liberals lose support. More than 45 per cent who favour the Liberals see the NDP as second choice, and only 29 per cent would choose the Conservatives. By contrast, Mr. Trudeau’s Liberals are the most popular second choice, and can gain from either the left or right – so if the Tories decline, the Liberals are likely to gain.

The Nanos data, based on rolling surveys of 1,000 Canadians conducted between June 28 and July 25, is something of a flip side of standard horse-race poll numbers, which show the party the respondents intend to vote for, plus a number of undecided voters. Respondents were asked both who they would consider voting for, and to rank their choices. It shows most voters are still open to a second choice – and will track how voters’ choices solidify during the campaign.

There is also another 6.4 per cent who say they aren’t considering any party, or are unsure how to answer – usually those who are confused or uninterested in politics. “These are the people who are very unlikely to vote,” Mr. Nanos said.
 
Just before I hit the road yesterday, I caught the report on NPR News about the Election announcement, One point that they made in the brief spot was that the Canadian public appears to be in the mood for a change in government.

Does Dan Karpenchuk have his finger on the pulse of the nation?
 
cupper said:
Does Dan Karpenchuk have his finger on the pulse of the nation?
He's been a CBC radio reporter & producer (the same way some newspaper journalists/columnists write for The Economist), so I'd say "as much as any other Toronto-based journalist".
 
milnews.ca said:
He's been a CBC radio reporter & producer (the same way some newspaper journalists/columnists write for The Economist), so I'd say "as much as any other Toronto-based journalist".

So that would be a definitive "who the hell knows".  ;D
 
Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act is a rather unflattering, but I suspect quite accurate portrait of Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his views on our courts:

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/politics/harper-fumed-privately-about-supreme-court-activism-book
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Harper fumed privately about Supreme Court activism: book

MARK KENNEDY, OTTAWA CITIZEN

Published on: August 4, 2015

Prime Minister Stephen Harper has privately fumed to his inner circle that under the leadership of Chief Justice Beverley McLachlin, the Supreme Court of Canada has become a “sociology seminar” that emasculates the power of Parliament, according to a new book.

The biography, titled Stephen Harper, provides a thorough account of Harper’s personal life and political career.

It explores his legendary temper and mood swings while also chronicling how Harper turned the once-divided conservative movement into a political success story that allowed him to win three elections, govern for a decade, and change the country.

The book, written by Globe and Mail journalist John Ibbitson, was originally set for publication in September. But with the early call of the Oct. 19 election, it is now available Tuesday as an e-book and hard copies will be in stores Aug. 18.

Among the issues covered in the book is Harper’s distrust of the courts and legal community — and his unprecedented public criticism last year of McLachlin, which critics said was an effort to intimidate the court.

“The nadir of Stephen Harper’s prime ministership came not during the Senate expenses scandal, but in the spring of 2014, when he got himself into a very public dust-up with Beverley McLachlin,” writes Ibbitson.

Harper alleged that McLachlin tried to interfere in the appointment of Federal Court Judge Marc Nadon to the top court — an allegation she denied and which drew broad support from the legal community.

Ibbitson writes that Harper’s criticism of the chief justice set a “dangerous precedent” and now ranks as one of his “most discreditable acts” as prime minister.

“Not only did he lose the fight; he tarnished his reputation and damaged what should be the sacrosanct separation of powers between executive and judiciary.”

In his book, Ibbitson writes of how Harper’s distrust of judges stems from a long-standing concern over judicial activism in the wake of the Charter of Rights and Freedoms.

The book reveals that once Harper took power in 2006, he grew increasingly frustrated with how the court’s rulings were overturning his legislative policies, and how it had established itself as the “unofficial opposition” to his government.

“Harper has repeatedly complained to his inner circle that, under Chief Justice Beverley McLachlin, the Court has become a sociology seminar, with the judges/professors able to turn their theories into laws, and Parliament unable to stop them,” according to the book.

Ibbitson writes that Conservatives lamented the advent of the Charter in the 1980s, fearing that courts would override Parliament.

The top court “obliged their worst fears” with rulings that have limited police powers, struck down the abortion law, and extended civil rights to gays and lesbians.

“For Stephen Harper, this was simply another way in which liberal urban elites in Toronto and Ottawa and Montreal imposed their agenda on the rest of the country.”

Ibbitson writes that while Liberal governments accepted judicial activism, Harper was furious.

“Harper had seethed against the smug, stifling certainty of these elites all his adult life. That is why, once he came to power, he set out to radically reform the justice system.”

Under the Conservative government’s law-and-order agenda, Harper moved to transform the justice system with mandatory minimum sentences for crimes involving guns, drugs and sexual assaults, and with new rules that gave convicts less credit for time served before their conviction.

But the court has imposed limits on some of Harper’s tough-on-crime laws.

The “breaking point” came with Harper’s appointment of Nadon, who had a record of “judicial deference.”

A legal challenge to Nadon’s eligibility — he was not a member of the Quebec bar and was being appointed to a constitutionally protected spot for a Quebecer — found its way right to the Supreme Court.

The court ruled in March 2014 that Nadon was ineligible.

“Harper was furious with the ruling. The Court had set itself up as the unofficial opposition to his prime ministership.”

The book says Harper was “convinced” McLachlin had meddled in Nadon’s selection process.

“Staff talked the prime minister down from launching a full, public assault on the impartiality of the Court, but he still went pretty far.”

Harper’s office released a statement saying the prime minister had refused to take a call from McLachlin about the appointment because it would be “inadvisable and inappropriate.”

McLachlin insisted it was customary for her to be consulted, that she only wanted the government to be aware of eligibility issues, and she had never expressed her own opinions about possible appointees.


Stephen Harp[er came to Ottawa with what one might call the Conservative prejudice against the institutional capital; it infected John Diefenbaker and Brian Mulroney, too. Who can forget Mulroney's "pink slips and running shoes" remark directed at the civil service? He thought, with some good reason ~ Google Mitchell Sharp and Marcel Massé ~ the upper ranks of the Mandarinate in Ottawa were like a branch plant of the civil service, and it was not surprising, the men and women in it had been hand picked by the men (they were all men) who were, previously, hand picked, personally, by Mackenzie King, OD Skelton and Louis St Laurent. The civil service, and the courts, might as well have been part of the Liberal Party of Canada.

But, after Pierre Trudeau, there was some distance between many (by no means all) Mandarins and the Liberals; many senior public servants were dismayed at what Trudeau had done to Canada and they mistrusted the entire Liberal edifice. But Conservatives could no trust them; Stephen Harper, in my opinion, still believe that the establishment, the old Laurentian elites, are "out to get him." And there may be some merit in his belief ...

    (Parenthetically: Like Prime Minister Harper I dislike the Charter of Rights and Freedoms; I think it gives us nothing new, nothing special, nothing that we, Canadians, would not have had in the same measure
      and in the same time without it ... nothing, that is, except courts that must, often reluctantly, "make laws" because the Charter was, still is ~ as all written constitutions, even the very must ones, must be ~ poorly drafted , incomplete,
      unable to have foreseen everything, deeply flawed, in other words, and more trouble than it's worth.)
 
The top court “obliged their worst fears” with rulings that have limited police powers, struck down the abortion law, and extended civil rights to gays and lesbians

...with such rulings, can one really sympathize with complaints against perceived judicial activism"?  After watching the last two decades of politics in Canada, I'm somewhat convinced that a Supreme Court of appointed, very intelligent judges is a good democratic firebreak against demagoguery and zero-value politics.
 
Infanteer said:
...with such rulings, can one really sympathize with complaints against perceived judicial activism"?  After watching the last two decades of politics in Canada, I'm somewhat convinced that a Supreme Court of appointed, very intelligent judges is a good democratic firebreak against demagoguery and zero-value politics.

Unfortunately, that is not always the case.  They have made several decisions that have made me scratch my head.  It is their place to interpret the Law, in the coming to their decisions; not to write the Law to match their decision.  They seem to have done this once or twice, and I find that offensive.
 
With respect to the Nadon affair, from what I understand, he really has no one to blame but himself.

If you are trying to put you own influence on the High Court to fight what you perceive as judicial activism, you damned well need to make sure that the nominee for that vacant seat on the bench meets ALL of the necessary criteria.

It seems to me, from what I've observed from afar since Harper has come to the national stage that Harper has a difficult time accepting that he has F'd up when things don't go the way he wanted or planned them to go.

I wonder if his distrust of the legal community has influenced is selection of staffers dealing with the legislative agenda. Is it a staff that favors conservative political technocrats over legal experts of both conservative and liberal leanings who would be better suited to developing challenge resistant legislation? Especially when it comes to changes to the justice system.

When you look at what is happening south of the border with a document that is over 200 years old trying to adjust to the changing societal views (Justice Scalia's views not withstanding), how can you expect our Charter of Rights and freedoms that came about only in the later part of just ended century not make so-called judicial activism an issue?
 
The amusing part is that here we have a right-ish government which harbours a belief that a left-ish SC will not defer sufficiently to the legislature, while to the south they have a left-ish government for which a SC perceived to be right-ish has been performing acrobatics in order to defer the legislature.
 
>One point that they made in the brief spot was that the Canadian public appears to be in the mood for a change in government.

Opposition party supporters are going to beat the "mood for change" drum.  Government party supporters are going to beat the "no appetite for change" drum.  It is election time.  Every reporter's bias is subject to examination - after applying the customary assumption that only 1/3 of reportage is an accurate reflection of reality.
 
Infanteer said:
...with such rulings, can one really sympathize with complaints against perceived judicial activism"?  After watching the last two decades of politics in Canada, I'm somewhat convinced that a Supreme Court of appointed, very intelligent judges is a good democratic firebreak against demagoguery and zero-value politics.

I prefer my democracy red of tooth and claw.

It is supposed to prevent red streets.
 
Interesting article in The Financial Post by Diane Francis.  She feels that the election is Harper's to lose, but he won't as all his opponents are critics, not contenders.  They really don't have anything to offer Canadians.

http://business.financialpost.com/diane-francis/diane-francis-why-stephen-harpers-opponents-are-critics-not-contenders
 
Guffaw. Someone on CBC radio just said that if Justin walks to the debate lectern with pants on that many in his camp will consider the debate a success.

 
Scott said:
Guffaw. Someone on CBC radio just said that if Justin walks to the debate lectern with pants on that many in his camp will consider the debate a success.

However, if you continually undersell your opponent he merely has to perform as semi-competent and your narrative has been defeated.
 
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