Election 2015

[Edward Campbell]

For those who think the Liberal leopard can change its spots ...

Gerry Lougheed Jr., Ontario Liberal fundraiser, charged in Sudbury byelection scandal
Lougheed to 'vigorously' defend 2 charges, including unlawfully influencing or negotiating appointments
CBC News Posted: Sep 24, 2015

And this ...

Perry Lougheed Jr. is also a fundraiser for the Trudeau campaign ...

Mr Lougheed's biography, from the Greater Sudbury Police Board, which he (still) chairs:

GERRY M. LOUGHEED JR. Biography

    Gerry Lougheed Jr. was appointed the Greater Sudbury Police Services Board as a Provincial Member in February 2011 and was reappointed for a further three-year term in 2014.  Gerry was elected as Board Chair for 2015.

    Mr. Lougheed is the Funeral Director and President of Lougheed's Limited. He is the founding President of the Rotary Club of Sudbury Sunrisers and founding Chairperson of the Sudbury Regional Palliative Care Association, the
    Bereavement Foundation of Sudbury, and the Northern Cancer Research Foundation. He is also the Co-Chair of Workplace Fatalities Bill of Rights Committee.

    Gerry has been appointed to many honorary positions and memberships. He has received the Queen's Jubilee Award, Order of Ontario and an honorary Doctorate of Sacred Letters, was named man of the Millennium for the
    Sudbury & District Multicultural Association, and is the recipient of the Order of the Lion of Finland.  He has been host of Shining Lights CJTK Radio Program since 2009. He has been a Columnist for South Side Story since 1993.
    He has been a speaker at many local and national conferences on the power of the individual in making a difference.

    Gerry is known for his incredible generosity, philanthropic spirit, and commitment to giving back. He is the most successful charity fundraiser in Northern Ontario and has lead successful campaigns totalling well over 100 million dollars
    for the Sudbury Regional Hospital, Northeastern Ontario Regional Cancer Centre, St. Joseph's Villa, Maison Vale Inco Hospice, Northern Ontario Medical School Bursaries, Canadian Cancer Society, Easter Seals, and many other worthy organizations.

    As a well-respected civic leader, Mr. Lougheed has had a significant impact on addressing issues, influencing change, and leaving a lasting legacy on setting new community directions. His courage and commitment to tackle
    challenges is unwavering and compelling in his approach to making a difference.


Plus ça change and all that ...

 

[Lumber]

For those who think the Liberal leopard can change its spots ...

Plus ça change and all that ...

In other related news, some guy, some where, who donated money to Federal Liberal party (i.e he raised funds), was arrested on some charge or another for doing something illegal. As a result, we can all assume that the Liberal party as a whole and Trudeau in particular are a bunch of crooks as well.

...

All :sarcasm: aside, I'm not saying the Liberals aren't crooks, just that I can't stand how we associated the actions of individuals with the party as a whole, or it's leader, which is exactly what they're trying to do doing right now.

 

[Good2Golf]

In other related news, some guy, some where, who donated money to Federal Liberal party (i.e he raised funds), was arrested on some charge or another for doing something illegal. As a result, we can all assume that the Liberal party as a whole and Trudeau in particular are a bunch of crooks as well.

...

All :sarcasm: aside, I'm not saying the Liberals aren't crooks, just that I can't stand how we associated the actions of individuals with the party as a whole, or it's leader, which is exactly what they're trying to do doing right now.

Oh, for the Liberals...I thought you meant about the CPC leader... 

 

[TwoTonShackle]

I'm sure if the CPC was leading in the polls and looking poised to win the election (minority or majority), many LPC, NDP and ABC supporters would be frustrated and showing whatever information they could to persuade people.  Anyone following this thread knows where Mr. Campbell loyalties lie.  I can completely associate with his frustrations, as they are most likely the same frustrations I felt last election.

Hopefully the trend of increased voter turn out continues into our future and more Canadians take an active interest in our political system and government officials.  All employees must be held accountable to their employers, and this is something most of the public seems to willingly ignore in politics.

 

[jollyjacktar]

Oh, no.  As long as it starts with an "H", its fair game to kick, spit, slam, slur, debase.....  in all other cases, it's  considered guilt by association, which isn't fair game.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Hmm, how things change:

Yesterday: "Earlier in the day, when the Canadian Press first broke the story, the Liberals stood by
Gagnier, saying he did not break any ethical standards." (Ottawa Citizen)

Today: "Justin Trudeau calls Dan Gagnier's letter to pipeline officials 'inappropriate'" (CBC News)

For those who think the Liberal leopard can change its spots ...

Gerry Lougheed Jr., Ontario Liberal fundraiser, charged in Sudbury byelection scandal
Lougheed to 'vigorously' defend 2 charges, including unlawfully influencing or negotiating appointments
CBC News Posted: Sep 24, 2015


Plus ça change and all that ...

If anyone thinks that Mr Trudeau is going to change how the libs work in the back room, they are mistaken. J Trudeau is a puppet front for the Laurentides in the back.

You can put lipstick on a pig, but it's still a pig.

 

[jollyjacktar]

From the Halifax Chronicle Herald's Bruce MacKinnon today.  Enjoy, or not.

http://thechronicleherald.ca/editorial-cartoon/2015-10-16-editorial-cartoon

 

[Lumber]

Oh, for the Liberals...I thought you meant about the CPC leader... 

It bothers me no matter the party we're talking about. People actually associate the Senate expense scandal with Harper, despite the fact that Liberal senators are being investigated for having spent as much if not more than the Conservative senators. People were issued incorrect voter information cards, and suddenly it's all Harper's fault because of his Fair Elections Act.

Oh, no.  As long as it starts with an "H", its fair game to kick, spit, slam, slur, debase.....  in all other cases, it's  considered guilt by association, which isn't fair game.

While I don't think either of these is right, I think this it's reflective of the nature and structure of each party.

PM Harper has consolidated his power in the PMO. He handicaps his Cabinet Ministers and gags his back bench. So, naturally, you attack the source of the power, which is Harper.

Mr. Trudeau and the Liberals, on the other hand, operate much differently. While I disagree about how much of a puppet Trudeau is (I'd say less than most of you think, but I can't qualify that statement so don't ask me to!), I do agree that their power structure is a lot more distributed than in the CPC, with many non-public politicians influencing the party from the back room; there is no single person pulling the strings. So you attack it from many angles, such as guilt by association.

 

[Jed]

It bothers me no matter the party we're talking about. People actually associate the Senate expense scandal with Harper, despite the fact that Liberal senators are being investigated for having spent as much if not more than the Conservative senators. People were issued incorrect voter information cards, and suddenly it's all Harper's fault because of his Fair Elections Act.

While I don't think either of these is right, I think this it's reflective of the nature and structure of each party.

PM Harper has consolidated his power in the PMO. He handicaps his Cabinet Ministers and gags his back bench. So, naturally, you attack the source of the power, which is Harper.

Mr. Trudeau and the Liberals, on the other hand, operate much differently. While I disagree about how much of a puppet Trudeau is (I'd say less than most of you think, but I can't qualify that statement so don't ask me to!), I do agree that their power structure is a lot more distributed than in the CPC, with many non-public politicians influencing the party from the back room; there is no single person pulling the strings. So you attack it from many angles, such as guilt by association.

I think this is a mistaken belief. What evidence , if any, led you to that conclusion or are you just going with your Gut?

 

[Edward Campbell]

And, of local interest to me, the Ottawa Citizen also endorses Ptime Minister harpewr Conservatives, despite polling that indicates that Ottawans really want change.

I, pretty much, share the Citizen's view when its editorial says:

    "There is a lot to be unhappy about, after nine years of Harper rule. He has picked political fights with major pillars of our democratic system – Elections Canada, the judiciary, officers of parliament – for no obvious reason
      apart from the fact that they appear to stand in his way. Under his watch there were unreasonably high levels of moral and even criminal corruption among some of those closest to him. He has indulged his MPs in their quest to make
      a mockery of Question Period.

      Nevertheless, there are two serious issues facing Canada right now: Ongoing economic uncertainty, and an increasingly unstable situation in the Middle East. In the face of the worst economic downturn in a generation, Harper has made
      sure that Canada remains on secure economic footing, something both his opponents’ plans put at risk. When it comes to confronting ISIL and the threat of global terror more generally, only the Conservatives are prepared to treat the
      matter with the strength of conviction it deserves.

      When you look at the Conservatives’ record, it is clear that the problem is not with their actual agenda, but with the manner in which they have chosen to go about implementing it. Strip away the hard partisanship and chip-on-the-shoulder
      populism, what remains is a government that has presided over a prosperous and united Canada in the face of powerful countervailing forces. For this alone, Stephen Harper and the Conservatives deserve to be returned to power
      on October 19."

I'm not planning on sharing every endorsement, but I think the Globe and Mail's matters ... the Good Grey Globe is a bit nuanced: "The Tories deserve another mandate - Stephen Harper doesn't".

The Globe and Mail says:

    "All elections are choices among imperfect alternatives, and this one more than most. Each of the parties has gaps, deficiencies and failings. But choose, voters must.
      ...
      Over the course of this long campaign, Mr. Trudeau did well to market himself to the country. But beyond the selfies and the smiles, the substance has proved difficult to find. Mr. Trudeau’s has been a skeletal vision and is
      therefore unpersuasive. With Ontario Liberal Premier Kathleen Wynne at his side, he would undoubtedly return to a bigger government footprint, and the spectre of waste and debt rears its ugly head. Who would apply
      the brakes if he is handed a majority? If he achieves minority government, Mr. Trudeau will need the NDP on critical economic issues to prevent his government’s collapse. That, together with his inexperience as a leader,
      is a recipe for frailty.
      ...
      Canada needs a change. It also needs the maintenance of many aspects of the economic status quo. What Canada needs, then, is a Conservative government that is no longer the Harper government.

      It is not time for the Conservatives to go. But it is time for Mr. Harper to take his leave. He can look back on parts of his record with pride, but he has undone himself and his party with a narrowness of vision and a meanness
      of spirit on a host of issues ...
      ...
      The Conservatives have been a big tent party in the past, and they must be once again. Fiscally prudent, economically liberal and socially progressive – the party could be all of those things, and it once was. But it won’t be,
      as long as Mr. Harper is at its head. His party deserves to be re-elected. But after Oct. 19, he should quickly resign. The Conservative Party, in government or out, has to reclaim itself from Stephen Harper."

                                               

 

[Edward Campbell]

Also from the Globe and Mail, Jeffrey Simpson offers what I think is a pretty "fair and balanced" analysis of the campaign in this column which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from that newspaper, and suggests, in the final paragraph, that the Conservatives were, in some part, the authors of their own misfortune:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/globe-politics-insider/jeffrey-simpson-campaigns-matter-just-ask-justin-trudeau/article26832637/

Campaigns matter – just ask Justin Trudeau

SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Jeffrey Simpson
The Globe and Mail

Published Friday, Oct. 16, 2015

Campaigns matter, hugely, as we are observing again.

The Liberal Party entered the formal campaign in third place but will almost certainly finish first on election night. Liberals won the campaign, hands down.

Large voter shifts during campaigns have shaped provincial outcomes too: in Alberta with the victorious NDP, in Quebec with the Liberals, in British Columbia with the Liberals. Even in New Brunswick, the campaign turned a looming Liberal landslide into a narrow win.

Last July, the respected firm Léger Marketing reported the Conservatives and NDP tied for first place in vote intentions with 32 per cent apiece. Justin Trudeau’s Liberals were well behind at 25 per cent. The poll reported the Conservatives in first place in Ontario; the NDP was well ahead in Quebec. Now the Liberals are comfortably ahead nationally, including in Ontario, and are competitive with the NDP in Quebec.

Also in July, Innovation Research found that 27 per cent of Canadians thought NDP Leader Tom Mulcair represented the best hope for “positive change” compared with 20 per cent who thought Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau was the best hope. Three months later, in early October, those numbers had switched with Mr. Trudeau favoured by 27 per cent, Mr. Mulcair by 21.

Nanos Research found in July that 50 per cent of voters “might consider” voting Conservative, but now only 38 per cent might be so inclined. The NDP “might consider” dropped from 56 per cent in July to 42 per cent today.

Preferred prime minister? Conservative Leader Stephen Harper has held relatively steady: 26 per cent in July, 29 per cent today. Mr. Mulcair has tumbled from 28 per cent in July to 20 per cent today, while Mr. Trudeau has risen to 33 per cent from 25.6 per cent.

By every matrix – fixed vote intention, possible vote intention, preferred leader, agent of change – the NDP cratered in the campaign while the Liberals rose. This campaign therefore produced a big shift – except for one constant.

The Conservatives went nowhere in the campaign, except perhaps slightly backward. They had lost during their four years in power about a quarter of their share of the popular vote from the 2011 election. They had planned to win them back, tried all kinds of enticements, but they failed.

Conservatives have their voters – their core – and that’s it. Their core isn’t large enough to win again. Even some Conservatives are sufficiently disillusioned that they won’t vote at all, or will throw a vote somewhere else. When Rob Ford and his brother Doug are organizing a late rally for the party in Toronto, and the federal party thinks this is just fine, the messaging is clear: The party is down to its hard core.

You don’t need polls to tell which way the political winds are blowing. Just watch at the end of any campaign where the leaders are going.

Mr. Trudeau is now spending most of his time in Conservative and NDP ridings. Mr. Harper is speaking in ridings his party already holds. Mr. Mulcair’s itinerary looks like a man trying with increasing desperation to plug holes in NDP dikes. In sports terms, Mr. Trudeau is playing offence; the other leaders are playing defence.

The only glitch in the Liberals’ march was the news that its campaign co-chair Daniel Gagnier had sent a memo to a client, TransCanada Corp., advising the company how best to influence a new Liberal government. This was an unpardonable error for someone with previous careers of exemplary service in the public and private sectors. Mr. Gagnier lost his ethical bearings, resigned his political post, and gave the Liberals headlines they would like to forget.

Otherwise, the Liberals capitalized better than the NDP on the mood for change. Mr. Trudeau proved to be more popular than Mr. Mulcair. Liberals grabbed “progressives” who might have voted NDP. They also had some appeal to moderate Conservatives who could no longer abide the Harper government.

The campaign and the leader made Liberals feel good about their party again, a feeling that had disappeared some time ago. The inordinate length of the campaign that the Conservatives believed would benefit them helped the Liberals slowly build momentum.

In one of politics’ many ironies, the Conservatives’ sustained denigration of Mr. Trudeau drove down expectations to such a low level that by not making any mistakes and sticking to script, the Liberal Leader quieted enough doubts about his abilities to win the campaign.

 

[Edward Campbell]

There is, of course, also a big change in the Globe and Mail's Election Forecast:

With five days to go there is a ...

35% chance that the Conservatives get the most seats

0.2% chance that the NDP gets the most seats

67% chance that the Liberals get the most seats

And

14% chance that the Green party gets more than one seat

2% chance that all three parties win 100 seats or more

6% chance that any party gets a majority

The Globe and Mail's Election Forecast is updated, again:

27% chance that the Conservatives get the most seats

0.1% chance that the NDP gets the most seats

74% chance that the Liberals get the most seats

And

13% chance that the Green party gets more than one seat

2% chance that all three parties win 100 seats or more

11% chance that any party gets a majority

-----------------------------------------------------------​

 

[Edward Campbell]

Jane Taber, writing in the Globe and Mail notes that the NDP have wasted no time jumping on the Dan Gagnier story:


    The Gagnier gift?

    New Democrats wasted no time jumping on the controversy around Dan Gagnier, co-chair of the Liberal campaign, who resigned after advising oil executives how to lobby a new government, including a Liberal one.

    As NDP Leader Tom Mulcair campaigned in Quebec on Thursday, slamming Justin Trudeau over the Gagnier affair, his strategists were busy designing a new series of ads aimed at reminding voters the Liberal Party is still the
    party of lobbyists and patronage. “That’s the old Liberal party,” Mr. Mulcair said repeatedly Thursday, suggesting a connection between Mr. Gagnier’s activities and those of the old-boy Liberal network during the Quebec sponsorship
    scandal. “They’re all about helping themselves.… I’m glad Canadians have a chance to see it before the election.”

    The NDP will make sure of that – their new ads will be on TV and online, according to an NDP war-room strategist who spoke on background. He said the Gagnier affair is “playing very hot” in Quebec, and the hope is that it
    will drive the so-called “progressive vote” to the NDP as Canadians begin to make their final decisions for Monday’s vote.



Edit: format

 

[Lumber]

I think this is a mistaken belief. What evidence , if any, led you to that conclusion or are you just going with your Gut?

Mainly just going with my gut. There won't be any evidence (yet) because he's not in power, so we can't see how he operates the PMO and what his relationship will be with his cabinet. However, from the many articles I've read (mainly thanks to E.R. Campbell - thank you), I just see the Liberal party as a whole (and not Trudeau in particular) as a divded party which will play as much Politics with itself as it will with other parties. In the CPC, on the other hand, Harper is without a doubt the strongest voice and the final authority. Maybe I'm wrong and Trudeau will demonstrate the same level of charisma, leadership and gall as his father, but as of right now I feel like his decisions are influenced by his advisors to an extent that is greater than Harper's decisions are by his advisors.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Mainly just going with my gut. There won't be any evidence (yet) because he's not in power, so we can't see how he operates the PMO and what his relationship will be with his cabinet. However, from the many articles I've read (mainly thanks to E.R. Campbell - thank you), I just see the Liberal party as a whole (and not Trudeau in particular) as a divded party which will play as much Politics with itself as it will with other parties. In the CPC, on the hand, Harper is without a doubt the strongest voice and the final authority. Maybe I'm wrong and Trudeau will demonstrate the same level of charisma, leadership and gall as his father, but as of right now I feel like his decisions are influenced by his advisors to an extent that is greater than Harper's decisions are by his advisors.

Remember, please, that if he's elected (pace Drew) M Trudeau will have a whole new set of permanent advisors, powerful advisors, the Mandarins in Ottawa in the Privy Council Office (PCO) and in each government department. They do not think like his current, political and campaign advisors, led by Gerald Butts, do ... they are, generally, very wary of Premier Wynne's prescriptions for Ontario, much less for Canada. There will be, as there has been for the last nine years, a constant tension, sometimes outright war between PCO and the PMO (Prime Minister's Office); sometimes the PMO, the political side, will win, but just as often the policy side, the PCO, will prevail.

 

[Edward Campbell]

There's a somewhat lengthy (but not "subscriber only") survey of 25 key ridings to watch on the Globe and Mail's website.

 

[dapaterson]

Twitter is having some fun with #otherglobeendorsements and #MoreGlobeEndorsements, after the Good Grey Globe called for a conservative victory, but Harper out as PM.

 

[Altair]

Jane Taber, writing in the Globe and Mail notes that the NDP have wasted no time jumping on the Dan Gagnier story:


    The Gagnier gift?

    New Democrats wasted no time jumping on the controversy around Dan Gagnier, co-chair of the Liberal campaign, who resigned after advising oil executives how to lobby a new government, including a Liberal one.

    As NDP Leader Tom Mulcair campaigned in Quebec on Thursday, slamming Justin Trudeau over the Gagnier affair, his strategists were busy designing a new series of ads aimed at reminding voters the Liberal Party is still the
    party of lobbyists and patronage. “That’s the old Liberal party,” Mr. Mulcair said repeatedly Thursday, suggesting a connection between Mr. Gagnier’s activities and those of the old-boy Liberal network during the Quebec sponsorship
    scandal. “They’re all about helping themselves.… I’m glad Canadians have a chance to see it before the election.”

    The NDP will make sure of that – their new ads will be on TV and online, according to an NDP war-room strategist who spoke on background. He said the Gagnier affair is “playing very hot” in Quebec, and the hope is that it
    will drive the so-called “progressive vote” to the NDP as Canadians begin to make their final decisions for Monday’s vote.



Edit: format

I don't think the ABC movement will be swayed by this too much.

 

[Kirkhill]

If anyone thinks that Mr Trudeau is going to change how the libs work in the back room, they are mistaken. J Trudeau is a puppet front for the Laurentides in the back.

You can put lipstick on a pig, but it's still a pig.

Stephen Harper wanted to change governance in Canada.  He wanted a less intrusive government that would do less.

He has demonstrated that he can do less, to the point, some argue, that he does nothing.

Unfortunately that means that the next guy can argue that he is the better candidate because he can do nothing as well.

Trudeau is well qualified.

 

[jollyjacktar]

Some might argue, he's rather over qualified for the post in that respect.