Election 2015

[Rocky Mountains]

Trudeau is well qualified.

The crowning achievement in his life is as a substitute drama teacher and he doesn't do that well. Whoever taught him to breath needs to be fired.

 

[Rocky Mountains]

PM Harper has consolidated his power in the PMO. He handicaps his Cabinet Ministers and gags his back bench.

Youth or Alzheimers?  I seem to remember the same thing said of Pierre Trudeau, Brian Mulroney, and Jean Chretien.

 

[Lumber]

Youth or Alzheimers?  I seem to remember the same thing said of Pierre Trudeau, Brian Mulroney, and Jean Chretien.

And did you hear me throw my support and accolades toward those Prime Ministers? The current or future Prime Ministers  don't get exempt from scrutiny just because past Prime Ministers were guilty of something first.

 

[Edward Campbell]

It looks like we all be able to see the results, as they are counted, on  the Elections Canada website.

 

[PPCLI Guy]

The crowning achievement in his life is as a substitute drama teacher and he doesn't do that well. Whoever taught him to breath needs to be fired.

Really?  You are advocating his death?  When it comes time to vote, will you be able to see the ballot through all the foam and spittle coming from your mouth?

Try and raise it up a notch, would you?

 

[Edward Campbell]

David Akin, Sun News, says, hopefully for Conservatives:

    "Let me quote from latest poll by Angus Reid Institute (most accurate pollster, I might add, in last two elections): "– Election 2015 enters its final weekend with the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) holding
      a four point advantage in popular support over the Conservatives (CPC) among eligible voters. That lead narrows to a statistical tie when the vote intention of likely voters are measured, while in both
      scenarios – the NDP remains stuck in third place and losing momentum."

                 

 

[Edward Campbell]

Another Ekos poll, showing a slight, marginal, tightening of the race:

Source: http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2015/10/marginally-significant-narrowing-of-liberal-lead/

And an update on the Ekos rolling poll:

Source: http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2015/10/stalemate-continues/

Ekos says:

    [Ottawa – October 16, 2015] As we enter the final weekend before Election Day, vote intentions appear to be settling in. At 34 points, the Liberals hold a marginal lead over the Conservatives who are at 33 points. At 23 points,
    the NDP are well back in terms of popular support, but the rather efficient distribution of their support means they will likely still be looking at a fairly impressive seat count on Monday.

    The Liberals continue to lead in the key battleground of Ontario, although there is some evidence that the race may be narrowing here. Although the NDP maintains its lead in Quebec, the race remains unclear with both the Liberals
    and the Conservatives vying to make gains. The Liberals hold a clear lead in Atlantic Canada, while the Conservatives lead across the Prairies. British Columbia is still very much anyone’s game.

    The Liberals may be peeling back the senior vote from the Conservatives, as the Conservative advantage here has narrowed significantly over the last week. The biggest divide, however, remains education. The Liberals maintain a
    clear lead with university graduates, while the college educated have rallied around the Conservatives.

    To account for those who have already voted, either at an advance poll or by special ballot, we ask Canadians whether they have already voted in this election. Overall, the two groups – those who have already voted and those who
    have not – mirror each other fairly closely in terms of party preference. Nevertheless, the Conservatives hold a slight advantage among early voters; indeed, if the election was called off and the victor determined by ballots
    already cast, the Conservatives would likely eke out a slim minority. Surprisingly, the Green Party fares quite well among early voters, which is highly notable for a party that routinely struggles to get its supporters to turn
    out on Election Day.

    Finally, while we know that the percentage of early voters in our survey is exaggerated due to social desirability and other factors, we note that cellphone users are showing up in comparable numbers to their landline-using counterparts.
    Of those who do not have access to a landline, 23 per cent tell us they have already voted, compared to 26 per cent on average. This is a rather significant finding, as cellphone-only households have historically been less likely to
    vote and we would speculate that this does not bode well for Stephen Harper’s prospects.

 

[kratz]

Reference: Globe and Mail mocked on Twitter after endorsing Tories but not Harper

After reading this late article, I could help but tweet:

@navy_ca not @army_ca #MoreGlobeEndorsements

  ;D

 

[Altair]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/harper-wanted-the-niqab-to-divide-and-conquer-but-that-has-backfired/article26844199/?service=mobile

By pressing the niqab issue, the Conservatives made an enormous strategic mistake. In fact, it was probably the single biggest blunder by any political party in this extraordinary election season. With one political gambit, they destroyed any hope of retaining power and handed the election to the Liberals. But the reasons why the move was such a blunder aren’t yet widely understood.

At least 10 per cent (and maybe closer to 20 per cent) of the country’s electorate detests the Harper government with passion. These Anybody-But-Harper or “ABH” voters number maybe two million or more people, spread across the country. They’re prepared to vote for either of the two main alternative parties – the NDP or the Liberals – if it means the Conservatives lose office.

That sounds like a huge group with potentially huge electoral power. But these people face a co-ordination problem, in game-theory terminology. They can only realize their power if they act more or less together, at least at the riding level but ideally nationally. In response to this co-ordination problem, groups promoting strategic-voting plans have proliferated.

The ABH voters have been watching each other’s potential behaviour, through opinion polls, looking for a signal as to which horse to back – the Liberals or the NDP. To have any hope of winning the election, the Conservatives had to keep the ABH vote split roughly evenly between the two opposition parties. They needed to ensure that neither the NDP nor Liberals broke out ahead. All of the above is widely understood.

What’s not understood is that the Conservatives themselves provided the break-out signal to the ABH vote. By pressing the niqab issue, starting in mid-September, they helped cause a sharp downturn in already soft NDP support in Quebec. (Anti-niqab sentiments are strong in the province, yet NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair has defended the right of women to wear the dress in citizenship ceremonies.)

As soon as the NDP poll numbers turned south in Quebec, the probability that the NDP would win enough seats to form the government dropped precipitously, given the importance of the NDP’s Quebec caucus to the party’s election hopes.

This was a signal to the ABH vote across the country to shift to the Liberals. ABH opinion leaders immediately recognized the implications of the Quebec developments; it took about another two weeks for those implications to be communicated through the ABH crowd and felt strongly in the polls, especially in Ontario. The Liberal Leader, Justin Trudeau, helped the shift by performing well on the stump and in debates.

Nationally, from the third week of September on, the Liberal surge in the Nanos daily tracking poll was almost an exact mirror image of the NDP’s decline, clear evidence that the ABH vote tipped to the Liberals during this period.

From a game-theoretic point of view, this is extraordinarily interesting behavior. It’s very rare to see a real-time co-ordination problem solved so fast by millions of people. It’s a remarkable example of collective or “emergent” group intelligence – one that I expect will receive a lot of attention from scholars in the future.

It has occurred partly because of the peculiar structural conditions of the Canadian federal political system at the beginning of the election season, with two opposition parties that were both credible contenders for power; partly because the Harper government is so widely despised, which means that many people don’t really care about the difference between the opposition parties, as long as one of them wins; partly because of the wide availability of real-time polling information; and partly because of the ease of social communication among ABH voters, using Internet-based technologies.

There’s a deep irony here: it was the very receptivity of a portion of the Canadian population, in Quebec, to the Conservatives’ divisive strategy on the niqab that ultimately generated the signal that progressive ABH voters elsewhere in the country needed to coordinate their behaviour – and that has proved the Conservatives’ undoing.

It’s enough to make one’s head spin.

That is what one gets for playing the niqab card.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

BC Liberal candidate Sukh Dhaliwal facing charges under the Income Tax Act

http://blogs.vancouversun.com/2013/02/06/bc-liberal-candidate-sukh-dhaliwal-facing-charges-under-the-income-tax-act/

I found this story about charges against Sukh Dhaliwal while out at Surrey Provincial Court looking up some other files Wednesday.

But given that he is being billed as a star candidate for the BC Liberals in the upcoming provincial election, I thought it was an important story to tell.

The Canada Revenue Agency has filed six charges against the former Liberal MP saying he failed to file tax returns for a company called Genco Consultants Inc., of which he is listed as president. (His wife Roni is the only other director, according to corporate documents.)

Here’s my story:

B.C. Liberal candidate and former MP Sukh Dhaliwal is facing six charges under the Income Tax Act for failing to file returns for a company of which he is president, The Vancouver Sun has learned.

The charges were sworn by a Surrey justice of the peace on Oct. 15, 2012 according court records obtained by The Sun.

Two weeks later, the B.C. Liberals announced that Dhaliwal would be their candidate for Surrey-Panorama in the upcoming provincial election.

“British Columbia is at a crucial point in history, and the B.C. Liberals are the best option for our province’s economy,” Dhaliwal said as he announced his candidacy on Oct. 31.

“Offering families low taxes, a clear plan for growth and the fiscal capacity for strong systems of support are values that I firmly believe in.”

Dhaliwal made a first appearance on the charges in Surrey Provincial Court Nov. 26 and was arraigned Dec. 17. The case was before a Surrey judge three times in January. And it is again in court today to fix a date.

The charges relate to his position as president of Genco Consultants Inc., of which his wife Roni is listed in corporate documents as secretary. There are no other directors listed.

Genco was founded on Nov. 26, 1999 as a numbered company, according to the B.C. corporate registry, adopting its current name in 2001.

The two page indictment says Dhaliwal violated section 238 (1) of the Income Tax Act when “on or about Dec. 23, 2011, [he] did unlawfully direct, authorize, assent to, acquiesce in or participate in Genco Consultant’s failure to file a completed Corporate Income Tax Return or T2.”

There is a separate count with identical wording for each of the years 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010. Each count also says that Dhaliwal was “served personally” with a notice of requirement to file on Aug. 24, 2011.

Dhaliwal provided an emailed response to The Sun late Wednesday.

He said Genco “is a joint venture with other companies.”

“This is not a company that I had direct day-to-day operational responsibilities, but as a director, do have responsibility for overseeing the overall operations,” he said. “I am working to resolve this issue as soon as possible, and am fully co-operating with the process. I am confident that this will be resolved in short order and I will fulfil any and all obligations.”

B.C. Liberal campaign director Mike McDonald said in an email that Dhaliwal “has made us aware of issues concerning a company in which he is a director and will be keeping us up to date with his progress.”

“He disclosed the matter and has assured the party that he is working to resolve it as expeditiously as possible and fully intends to fulfil any and all obligations,” McDonald said, without providing details of when the party was informed by Dhaliwal.

Dhaliwal was an MP from 2006 and 2011, during four of the years that the Canada Revenue Agency alleges he failed to file returns for his company.

The maximum penalties under the act for the offence are a $25,000 fine and a year in jail.

Vancouver lawyer Ravi Hira said Wednesday that convictions under the Income Tax Act can result in a record under the Criminal Records Act.

“Every person or corporation that makes income or has income in Canada, net income, must file a tax return. If you fail to file a tax return, the minister or a representative of the minister can demand of the individual … or, if it’s a corporation, of a person who’s in charge of the corporation, to file a return,” Hira explained.

“In this case, it is alleged that the demand has been made of a person in charge of the corporation pursuant to section 231.2. If a return isn’t filed pursuant to a demand, then the person is committing an offence. The offence is an offence under the Income Tax Act. It carries, on summary conviction, a minimum fine of $1,000, and a fine that cannot exceed $25,000 and it can also have up to one year imprisonment.”

Dhaliwal had been a Liberal MP for Surrey Newton-North Delta for five years when he was defeated in 2011 by Jinny Sims, of the NDP.

Dhaliwal, 52, has made his mark in politics at all three levels of government.

Back in 1999, he signed up thousands of members for the Surrey Electors Team — then the dominant municipal party in Surrey — when Liberal MLA Kevin Falcon was SET’s campaign manager.

Then he entered the federal arena as an organizer and candidate for the Liberal Party of Canada.

He also organized provincially for Premier Christy Clark’s leadership bid in 2011.

Dhaliwal has also attracted controversy.

While a federal MP, he wrote a reference letter on official House of Commons stationary for convicted international drug smuggler Ranjit Singh Cheema. The letter was addressed to the California judge sentencing Cheema after he pleaded guilty to conspiring to import 200 kilograms of heroin. Cheema was gunned down in Vancouver last year shortly after getting out of prison.

Another one : You just can't make this shit up.

 

[PuckChaser]

But Altair wants to talk about Niqabs and how evil Harper is again. We really need to start sweeping these constantly Liberal criminals under the rug like Trudeau is trying to do.

 

[Altair]

But Altair wants to talk about Niqabs and how evil Harper is again. We really need to start sweeping these constantly Liberal criminals under the rug like Trudeau is trying to do.

Or I can talk about a candidate that peed in a cup.

A lot of candidates have been less than savory this election, for all parties.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

8)

 

[jollyjacktar]

:rofl:

 

[Altair]

So much hate.

Will make the CPC loss Monday all the more sweet.

 

[Jed]

So much stupidity. It makes the world dumber.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

We gotta lighten up. The thread has been soooooo serious, for soooooo long.

The election is two days away. If you haven't figured who to vote for, nothing is going to change that. Ditto if you know.

Time to have a little fun here for a change.

There's some good cartoons and memes about the other parties out there also.

 

[Brad Sallows]

A preference cascade was inevitable; in this case, the NDP stung themselves (cf. frog and scorpion fable).  And people didn't have to find out about it passively - they were waiting and watching for one, hence its rapidity.

What is interesting is that neither the NDP nor LPC could find any issue to move up on.  Neither party had anything attractive enough to move a large block of voters.  Instead, one of them had to find something unattractive to an initially small fraction of voters, and fumble the election over it.

I've written here before about the idea that Harper took "rice bowls" away, and people want them back.  The LPC is not proving me wrong.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=17GPlyvPKdI

 

[Edward Campbell]

The Ottawa Citizen reports: "Liberals surging nationally."

The article says that:

    "The poll by Mainstreet Research, conducted Wednesday and Thursday, found that the Liberals had a five-point lead among decided and leaning voters over their nearest rivals, Stephen Harper’s Conservatives.

    After a marathon campaign that featured strong debate on issues ranging from the economy to wearing the niqab, Mainstreet’s numbers indicated that the desire for change among the electorate was finding a home in the Liberal
    camp, as support for Tom Mulcair’s NDP faded.

    Among the poll’s main national findings:

          – The Liberals had the support of [size=14pt]38 per cent of Canadian voters who had made up their mind or were leaning in one direction.

          – The governing Conservatives were running second, with 33 per cent of the decided and leaning vote.

          – The NDP was well back, with 21 per cent.

          – The Green party had five per cent, while the Bloc Québécois, running only in Quebec, had four per cent.

    Mainstreet president Quito Maggi said in an interview Friday that if the polling numbers carry through to election day, the Liberals could be on the “razor’s edge” of winning a majority."[/size]


Edited to add:


Here is a graphic view of that Mainstreet data:

Source: https://twitter.com/davidakin

And, same source, confirmation from Léger Marketing:

But: some heartening news for the Conservatives, from Mainstreet:

    "Among those who told pollster they had already voted: #CPC [size=14pt]34.2% | #LPC 33.7% | #NDP 19.5 | #GPC 4.5 (Much like Ekos)"[/size]