Election 2015

[Rocky Mountains]

The the then-proposed Quebec law dealt with face coverings, too ....

Plus 100  other things including big crosses.  The Conservatives are not objecting to religious symbols per se.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Plus 100  other things including big crosses.  The Conservatives are not objecting to religious symbols per se.

Maybe, but it appears they've gone from "We'll have to take a close look at any law Quebec passes that makes it illegal for public servants to cover their faces due to cultural practices" to "We might consider not allowing Canadian public servants to cover their faces due to cultural practices."

 

[George Wallace]

Maybe, but it appears they've gone from "We'll have to take a close look at any law Quebec passes that makes it illegal for public servants to cover their faces due to cultural practices" to "We might consider not allowing Canadian public servants to cover their faces due to cultural practices."

Although appropriate, I don't think I would feel comfortable with the staff at Revenue Canada wearing bandanas over their faces.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Now the Globe and Mail reports that "The Liberals have caught up to the NDP in Quebec, as voters in the province increasingly see Justin Trudeau’s team as the party most likely to defeat the Conservatives, according to the latest Léger poll ... the New Democrats’ massive lead in Quebec has steadily evaporated during the campaign, as growing numbers of strategic voters turn to the Liberals, pollster Jean-Marc Léger said."

The Liberal Momentum becomes more and more apparent, just when it's needed.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Although appropriate, I don't think I would feel comfortable with the staff at Revenue Canada wearing bandanas over their faces.

 

[Lumber]

The Liberal Momentum becomes more and more apparent, just when it's needed.

You almost sound excited.  ;D

 

[Edward Campbell]

You almost sound excited.  ;D

Nope; I'm just fascinated by the ebbs and flows of politics, generally, and especially by the dynamics of campaigns. My main interest is in the potential Constitutional consequences of a minority government after this election.

I said, several weeks ago, when it looked as though M Mulcair might be our next prime minister, that

The numbers are fun, the strategies and tactics are fascinating ...
...
I will not welcome an NDP government, if that's who we all choose. But I doubt it will do real, serious, long term harm to our country, despite my mistrust of the economic and fiscal motivations of M Mulcair's back-bench and base.

I am not really afraid of a government led by M Trudeau, if that's the party we select. Despite my reservations about his 'bottom', he can put together a pretty solid front bench. I doubt his government will do much real damage either.

I rather hope Prime Minister Harper's Conservatives are re-elected, despite my real, serious reservations about Prime Minister Harper as a leader ...
...
My  :2c:  because I think too many of us take all this too seriously ... Remember what Gloria Gaynor said: those political buggers will be back and we will survive, no matter which of 'em leads our country.

I stand by that. If M Trudeau's Liberals are elected to govern I expect them to do several dumb things, just as a CPC government has done and a NDP government would do. But I also expect that he will have some good ministers and that the civil service will keep his party from doing too much damage.

 

[Edward Campbell]

At this stage of the campaign, if I was a CPC tactician, I would want to say three things, over and over again:

    1. "Look, folks, even Jeffrey Simpson says that Justin Trudeau's 'pledge to run deficits to kick-start the economy through infrastructure ... is misleading.' You cannot trust him; he doesn't have a plan, except to take money out of your pockets;"

    2. "Justin Trudeau wants to let convicted terrorists stay in Canada, and he wants to let them continue to force their sisters to hide their faces behind niqabs;" and

    3. "We've just signed the world's biggest, best ever, free trade deal: I'm for it, Mulcair's against it, and Justin Trudeau just doesn't understand it."

And, here, in this column which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail, Jeffrey Simpson suggests that the CPC needs to campaign, all out, on three "T"s ~ trade, Trudeau and terror:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/globe-politics-insider/jeffrey-simpson-tories-hone-final-strategy-down-to-a-t-or-three/article26730706/

Tories hone final strategy down to a T, or three

SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Jeffrey Simpson
The Globe and Mail

Published Friday, Oct. 09, 2015

The Conservative campaign, still looking for liftoff, will focus until voting day on the three Ts: trade, Trudeau and terror. The three Ts will be aimed in particular at older voters and backed by a television advertising campaign the likes of which Canadians have never seen.

Each “T” speaks to a wider Conservative message. Trade, such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement, is about managing the economy, which the Tories will insist they do best. Trudeau is about the Liberal Party’s leader, whose inexperience Conservatives will contrast with the experience of Prime Minister Stephen Harper. Terror is about keeping the country not just safe from foreign threats – Islamic jihadis – but from domestic threats to social harmony from women wearing niqabs.

The three Ts will be tied together by fear: of other parties messing up the economy, of being governed by Justin Trudeau and of practices of the “other,” as in the case of niqab-wearers. The three Ts will be driven home by a bombardment of television advertising.

The principal reason for the longest campaign since 1874, after all, is the Conservatives’ money advantage. They have more of it than the other parties. The longer the campaign goes on, the more the parties can spend. Brace yourselves for the Conservatives’ late-campaign bombardment.

In any election, those with the least interest and lowest amount of basic information about issues make up their minds at the very end, if they vote at all. Conservative voters also have lower levels of formal education than supporters of the other parties.

Television advertising is mostly directed at knowledge-challenged, marginally interested voters. Fear – of change, of the “other,” of threats – can be a powerful motivator for these groups, which is why the Conservatives will use fear extensively as the campaign draws to a close.

The Conservatives have another advantage beyond money – an advantage that loose reporting of political polls invariably misses. Conservative voters, the party believes and political science agrees, will turn out in larger numbers than supporters of the other parties.

Higher turnout revolves around age and commitment. Conservatives are by far the strongest party among seniors and the weakest for people under 35. Older voters, happily for the Tories, go to the polls in much higher numbers than do those under 35.

Imagine, say, that a media story reports an opinion poll showing the Conservatives and Liberals tied at 33 per cent. The poll says nothing about turnout. If three-quarters of Conservatives vote but only two-thirds of Liberals do in this hypothetical situation, the Conservatives will wind up ahead.

The party has spent a lot of time and money constructing a database that tells it where Conservative supporters are, what motivates them and how to get them to vote. Tories are counting on this knowledge to pull out voters on Oct. 19.

Conservative supporters are the most committed to their party. Asked by polling firms whether they have a second choice, almost half reply that they have none. It’s a Conservative vote or nothing for them. By contrast, only 10 per cent to 5 per cent of New Democratic or Liberal supporters report no second choice.

The flip side of the Conservatives’ strong, Tory-or-nothing base, is limited growth potential. They just aren’t going to swing many committed New Democrats or Liberals. So they have to fish among loosely committed voters, those who are genuinely undecided, and those who won’t follow politics until the last days of the campaign, if at all. The Conservative campaign also absolutely has to bring back some supporters from the last campaign who have drifted away.

For all these groups, Conservatives have to scare people about Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau whom they will say wants pot in the schools, has never run a candy store, flip-flops on issues and just “isn’t ready.” The subtext will be: You might not like Stephen Harper, but you know where he’s coming from and he has experience the other guy lacks.

Witness to which, the Conservatives will insist, are the trade deals the government has negotiated, including this week’s TPP, a nice political issue that has the Liberals making silly arguments about transparency (trade deals are never negotiated in public); and the NDP tying itself not to the wider public interest but to some nervous auto firms and unions, and embracing supply-managed farmers who will be exorbitantly compensated by Canadian taxpayers.

And, the Conservatives will not so subtly suggest, don’t forget the niqab, part of some “foreign” practice favoured by people from countries that breed terrorists, the final “T.”

I pretty much agree with Mr Simpson.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Too Close To Call confirms that the Liberals have the Momentum but suggest that it is not, yet, enough to prevent a CPC victory in this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from its website:

http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2015/10/new-polls-show-liberal-on-rise.html

Too Close To Call
New polls show Liberal on the rise, especially in Ontario

Bryan Breguet

Friday, October 09, 2015

Say what you want, but I seem to be causing shifts. A couple of weeks ago, I wrote that the Bloc was likely to disappear. Just after that, the Bloc was rising again. Then, earlier this week, I did an analysis showing that the Liberals of Justin Trudeau needed to have a significant lead in Ontario in order to really challenge Harper. I was also showing that at this point, this lead wasn't there (something that was confirmed by riding polls) The very same day, we started seeing polls with the Liberal either first or close. In particular, these new polls all show a lead for the Liberals in Ontario. There was Nanos first (+9 pts at some point, although it has slightly decreased to +7 this morning after some fluctuations), Abacus (+7), Forum (+3) and even Ekos now has the Liberals first overall and in Ontario (+7; although the one Ekos added to the poll average is from 2 days ago). There was also a new Leger (+3). And this morning, guess what, we have a new Mainstreet poll. Yes, the same guys who showed the Conservatives almost in majority territory a couple of days ago (by publishing a poll days after having collected the data). And the new poll now shows Conservatives and Liberals neck and neck overall, with the Liberals a full 7 points ahead in Ontario. So either they were wrong back then, or really the Liberals have had a good week (I suspect it's a mix of both).

So, Liberal supporters, you should maybe be worried of what I'm about to write because I could cause it to change: the Liberals are definitely on the rise. They are getting close to really challenging the Conservatives. (note: just in case, I'm joking here, I know I don't cause anything except maybe some anger to some people on Twitter)

The new projections are below. The Liberals are still second. I added the Nanos of this morning, as I do every 3 days. I'll add Ekos later when published as well.

See the details on the permanent page for the federal election.

Why are the Liberals still not higher? Well, first of all, the electoral system being what it is, the nationwide numbers are meaningless. You need to look at provincial ones. And there, you see the Liberals killing it in Atlantic, involved in a potential 4-way race in Quebec where they can't expect that many seats from, on the rise in Ontario where it's starting to pay off, up in Manitoba but still third in Saskatchewan (as confirmed by another Mainstreet poll this morning; Those guys are busy), still too far in Alberta to really expect more than 1-2 seats and finally, and this could become significant next week, potentially challenging for first in BC. But as of right now, I still see them slightly lagging in terms of seats.

Also, remember that I try to account for the systematic underestimation of incumbents by the polls. Therefore, if polls show CPC and LPC tied overall, my projections will give the Tories a small edge. Yes this is partially subjective and yes I'll live and die on it. At the same time, taking polls purely at face value is not necessarily better. Polls allocate undecided weirdly and again, have a strong tendency to underestimate incumbents (as well as the Conservatives in 2008 and especially in 2011). But you can hate me for these small adjustments. You should know however that I slightly changed them. I used to allocate 50% of undecided to the CPC and 25% to the NDP and Liberals each. I now give more to the Liberals and less to the NDP to reflect the fact the NDP is falling and dropping to third. You should also know that even without my adjustments, I'd still predict the Tories to be favourites. Just slightly less.

At the end of the day, if you hate my adjustments, just use the model yourself with your numbers.

The NDP is literally collapsing. In Quebec, it seems this party is now in danger of not finishing first. Although, to be fair, Quebec seems pretty unpredictable with polls showing the NDP ahead, others the Liberals and some even have the Tories. The only good news for Thomas Mulcair is that the Bloc seems to have fallen back below 20%. In Ontario, the NDP is now clearly under its result of 2011 and is polled as low as 14% in the new Mainstreet! There are 10 days left to this campaign and I'm not sure there is anything Mulcair can do to bounce back. At this point, they probably need to focus on Quebec and BC to save some seats. And maybe expect that some of the industrial Ontario will react to the TPP.

I'm not in the business of predicting what will happen in 10 days. But let's just say the last week should be interesting. If the numbers keep being good for the Liberals, I might have final projections that would be, literally, too close to call (finally! After covering so many elections with final predictions so clear - Alberta 2015, Quebec 2014, Ontario 2014).

And, don't forget to factor in the "age" thing (see Jeffrey Simpson, above) and it should be no surprise that despite have the Momentum, the Liberals still lag behind ... for now.

 

[GAP]

Interesting article in the local news last night.

Elections Canada has, since Monday, had 4 popup advance polls, mainly at Universities. Advance polls don't start here until Today, but they had these to catch the younger crowd.

It might have a good effect on "the hair"

 

[runormal]

Interesting article in the local news last night.

Elections Canada has, since Monday, had 4 popup advance polls, mainly at Universities. Advance polls don't start here until Today, but they had these to catch the younger crowd.

It might have a good effect on "the hair"

Just figured I'd shed some additional light on this. These went on this week ( October 5-9) . There were posters that were put up the week prior (Sept 28- 2 October) as well as election's Canada Staff positioned directly in front of the residence buildings so it was impossible to miss it. The staff was extremely helpful and explained the procedure very quickly.  It was also incredibly easy to vote, I only needed my drivers license and nothing else. They looked me up in the system saw that I registered to vote in my home riding and then they gave me a book of all the candidates and I wrote the individuals name who I wanted to vote for. In and out in 10 minutes ;D.

While I can't speak across the country my parent university in a different province seemed to have a similar system going on.

 

[jollyjacktar]

They had one of the student voting organizers on the news last night, she said that about 45K students had voted this week so far.  The young are apparently motivated to vote this election moreso than in the past.  I would expect that most of their votes would be going to the left vs the right side of the coin.  Despite the engagement of the kids (and that's fantastic in and of its own), it's the old bastards like me that are going to be the armoured fist in making an impact as “Quantity has a quality all its own.” ― Joseph Stalin.  Which way the grey wave breaks ashore will be interesting to see.

 

[jollyjacktar]

CBC has some footage of two climate change protestors who were ejected from the PM's rally.  One rushed the stage and got within a couple feet of him and the other wanted to get her point across from the audience.  One was rushed off by his security detail and the other was escorted off by others. 

 

[Edward Campbell]

Jane Taber, writing in her Political Notebook in the Globe and Mail reports on speculation from inside the Liberal and NDP camps about what they might do in the event of a Conservative minority:

    Not a coalition

    With the election too close to call, and predictions of a minority government, NDP and Liberal insiders are looking at scenarios as to who will form the government if Stephen Harper and his Conservatives win the most seats on
    Oct. 19, but not a majority.

    No formal discussions have taken place yet, but insiders from both parties have mused that the 1985 “accord” between the Ontario Liberal leader David Peterson and NDP leader Bob Rae could serve as a template for the path to power.

    Mr. Peterson and Mr. Rae negotiated the accord after the incumbent Progressive Conservative government did not win a majority in the May, 1985, provincial election.

    The accord guaranteed two years of stable government with David Peterson as premier. It was not a coalition government. Rather, the NDP, which had the fewest seats, agreed to support a Liberal government for 24 months if some of its
    priorities were put in place.

    A Liberal insider noted that there were no discussions between the Ontario Liberals and NDP during the 1985 election campaign. Right now, he says, he sees “no appetite for such discussions before the election at all.”

    A veteran NDP insider floated this theory of how election night could unfold, suggesting that if the Conservatives win fewer than 165 seats – a majority is 170 – NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau will talk
    that night and could issue a letter or statement of their intention to try to govern.

    The NDP is the Official Opposition and went into the election with 95 seats; the Liberals are the third party, entering the campaign with 36 seats. There are 30 new federal seats in this election, bringing the seat count to 338.

    The NDP insider says the “nature of the relationship” between the NDP and Liberals will be “determined in large part by the numbers” each side wins on election night. For example, he says, a “longer, deeper relationship might be
    possible” if the Liberals win 140 seats and the NDP 120. This would be the “accord” scenario. However, if the Liberals are at 160 seats and the NDP at 80, then a formal accord is less likely.

    Two years would also give the parties a chance to replenish their election war chests after the lengthy campaign. The Conservatives have no trouble raising money, and one senior Tory official noted to The Globe and Mail that,
    if they win a minority, they could easily afford to go to the polls again in five to seven months.

    The nightmare scenario for the Trudeau Liberals, the NDP insider says, is if the Conservatives win 150 seats, the NDP wins 130 and the Liberals win 60. And then Mr. Harper quickly introduces his Speech from the Throne, using the
    Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal as the linchpin.

    Does the Liberal Leader support Mr. Harper’s government and vote for the Throne Speech, giving the Conservatives the ability to say they have the confidence of the House of Commons? Or does he vote it down, after saying on
    the campaign trail that his party is “resolutely pro-trade”?

    “Agony,” the NDP insider says about Mr. Trudeau’s choices.

    The NDP Leader, meanwhile, has been clear that he would not ratify the trade deal.

 

[Edward Campbell]

The Ottawa Citizen reports that:

    "A new poll by Mainstreet Research for Postmedia shows 33 per cent of decided voters nationally favouring the Conservative party, with the Liberals close behind at 31 per cent. Now distinctly
    in the rear, the New Democratic Party had just 18-per-cent support in the poll conducted Oct. 6 and 7.

    Furthermore, 36 per cent of “leaning and decided” voters backed the Conservatives, with the Liberals at 35 per cent. The NDP had just 20-per-cent support among this group.

    Ontario figures put the Liberals up 44 per cent to 37 for the Tories among leaning and decided voters, with the NDP fading to 14 per cent.

    But more startling were the findings in Quebec, home of the “orange wave” in the 2011 federal election that catapulted the NDP into opposition status. There, the pollsters found, the three parties were virtually tied among
    decided and leaning voters: The Conservatives and Liberals both claimed 27-per-cent support, with the NDP at 25. After two strong debate performances by Leader Gilles Duceppe, the Bloc Québécois stood at 17 per cent."

 

[Altair]

Yes, yes the ndp vote just needs to keep withering away. The vote split looks to be aiding the LPC.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

Civic duty complete, just voted in the advance poll.

 

[Rocky Mountains]

Yes, yes the ndp vote just needs to keep withering away. The vote split looks to be aiding the LPC.

As the NDP go down, both the Liberals and Conservatives have gone up.  I suspect voters balancing an NDP/Liberal vote as opposite of a Conservative vote is fiction.  It appears that the Conservatives may have even attracted more than half the NDP losses.  Maybe people aren't as doctrinaire as many believe nor are there as many true Harper Haters as believed.  In my opinion, it would take a pretty determined voter to want Trudeau as PM.  Perhaps a lot of NDP supporters like a little more brains at the top.

 

[McG]

As the NDP go down, both the Liberals and Conservatives have gone up.  I suspect voters balancing an NDP/Liberal vote as opposite of a Conservative vote is fiction.  It appears that the Conservatives may have even attracted more than half the NDP losses.  Maybe people aren't as doctrinaire as many believe nor are there as many true Harper Haters as believed.  In my opinion, it would take a pretty determined voter to want Trudeau as PM.  Perhaps a lot of NDP supporters like a little more brains at the top.

Alternately, as the NDP and LPC leadership each seems to better fit the other party, the NDP base is bleeding to the LPC while LPC base is more slowly moving to the CPC; each group trying to find something closer to what they might historically have voted.

 

[Altair]

As the NDP go down, both the Liberals and Conservatives have gone up.  I suspect voters balancing an NDP/Liberal vote as opposite of a Conservative vote is fiction.  It appears that the Conservatives may have even attracted more than half the NDP losses.  Maybe people aren't as doctrinaire as many believe nor are there as many true Harper Haters as believed.  In my opinion, it would take a pretty determined voter to want Trudeau as PM.  Perhaps a lot of NDP supporters like a little more brains at the top.

I think that conservative bump is coming from quebec. I don't think the conservatives are going to win too many seats in Quebec even with this bump.

It's ontario where they need gains and I don't see that as of now.