Election 2015

[Edward Campbell]

Well, Canadian Business (speaking for Canadian business?) is pretty happy with the TPP deal. M Mulcair promises to scrap it, and M Trudeau says ... what, exactly?

 

[Edward Campbell]

If the niqab is seriously the most important thing Canadians care about, whether liberal, conservative or new democratic party, I honestly cannot be bothered to care about the political process.

There are so many issues facing canada, so many different takes on how best to approach them. Yet all anyone is talking about is a court case that effected 0.0000033333 percent of people taking a citizenship ceremony.

Because it is something about which they can think. It's something they understand. It's a stand-in for the real, substantive, important debate that in which no one, including Prime Minister Harper and M Trudeau, wants to engage. It will have to do ...


Edit: typo

 

[Altair]

Because it is something about which they can thank. It's something they understand. It's a stand-in for the real, substantive, important debate that in which no one, including Prime Minister Harper and M Trudeau, wants to engage. It will have to do ...

In my opinion it borders on disgraceful.

Economic policy effects 99 percent of Canadians.

Childcare effects both businesses and families.

The politics in Ottawa effects...well, those who follow politics in Ottawa,  one in 5, one in 10?

Niqab? This effect almost no one. 0.0000033333 percent of people, and maybe those in the room when it happens. And considering only 2 women have tried, I would put that number under a 100.

And yet, this is what we get for a debate on chosing the leadership of Canada? In 2011 I didn't vote because I was disgusted with everyone involved. I'm bordering that level of disgust again.

 

[ModlrMike]

If the niqab is seriously the most important thing Canadians care about, whether liberal, conservative or new democratic party, I honestly cannot be bothered to care about the political process.

There are so many issues facing canada, so many different takes on how best to approach them. Yet all anyone is talking about is a court case that effected 0.0000033333 percent of people taking a citizenship ceremony.

The Grand Canyon started with a drop of water. Many Canadians see the niquab issue as the same thing.

 

[Good2Golf]

And it should be one. Over 1000 disappearances and murders of Aboriginal women since 1980 (with a questionable response by law enforcement in many cases) versus 15 confirmed "honour killings" and some of those were Sikh, not Muslim.

Again, it's what the government is choosing to emphasize that makes it so clear this is about a political strategy versus addressing a real issue.

So your saying that more deaths and indigenous background is more wrong than fewer and immigrant-based cultural killings?

By your original logic, murder is murder is murder.  The laws are there to be used as the judiciary sees fit.

 

[OldSolduer]

And it should be one. Over 1000 disappearances and murders of Aboriginal women since 1980 (with a questionable response by law enforcement in many cases) versus 15 confirmed "honour killings" and some of those were Sikh, not Muslim.

Again, it's what the government is choosing to emphasize that makes it so clear this is about a political strategy versus addressing a real issue.

Can you cite some specific examples where responses by law enforcement agencies were questionable?

We're all aware of the Picton case and I'd tend to agree with that being a "questionable response".

 

[Edward Campbell]

In my opinion it borders on disgraceful.

Economic policy effects 99 percent of Canadians.

Childcare effects both businesses and families.

The politics in Ottawa effects...well, those who follow politics in Ottawa,  one in 5, one in 10?

Niqab? This effect almost no one. 0.0000033333 percent of people, and maybe those in the room when it happens. And considering only 2 women have tried, I would put that number under a 100.

And yet, this is what we get for a debate on chosing the leadership of Canada? In 2011 I didn't vote because I was disgusted with everyone involved. I'm bordering that level of disgust again.

Don't despair, Altair!    Watch this video and then go out and vote for almost anyone ... because some of these dimwits are probably going to vote, you need to add some intelligence to the process.

 

[Rocky Mountains]

If the niqab is seriously the most important thing Canadians care about, whether liberal, conservative or new democratic party, I honestly cannot be bothered to care about the political process.

Yes it probably is the issue that concerns more Canadians than anything else and may win the election for Harper.

A lot of people look upon this as a women's issue.  Looking back several decades much of the Arab world did not place their women in sacks.  It is now becoming commonplace where once it was much more limited in scope.  There is an implicit threat of violence to women who do not conform to the new cultural norm.  30 or 40 years ago Iranian women used to wear bikinis.  Did they switch to sacks of their own free will?  I'm betting not.

 

[Rifleman62]

Several posts have stated that nobody is forcing these women to wear the niqab/burka. Well that's incorrect. Their husbands/fathers are forcing them to wear this form of dress. It is degeneration of women and it should stop.

What would your wife for example, tell you to do if you told her how to dress?

 

[Edward Campbell]

Global News' poll tracker:

Source: http://globalnews.ca/news/2262339/friendly-fire-canadian-veterans-clash-over-election-politics/

 

[Privateer]

Several posts have stated that nobody is forcing these women to wear the niqab/burka. Well that's incorrect. Their husbands/fathers are forcing them to wear this form of dress. It is degeneration of women and it should stop.

What would your wife for example, tell you to do if you told her how to dress?

Probably, in some cases.  But in others, it's a "free" choice governed by adherence to a religion.  Just as "free" as the choice to go to confession for Catholics. 

 

[OldSolduer]

What would your wife for example, tell you to do if you told her how to dress?

She would not take kindly to my suggestions. The cast iron frying pan is in the bottom of the stove.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Bob Rae, in this opinion piece which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail, sees a fair bit of hope for a Liberal victory:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/two-weeks-to-go-the-campaign-is-about-to-get-nasty/article26684453/

Two weeks to go: The campaign is about to get nasty

BOB RAE
Special to The Globe and Mail

Published Tuesday, Oct. 06, 2015

Bob Rae is a lawyer with OKT, teaches at the University of Toronto and is the author of What’s Happened to Politics?

We are now in the final days of the campaign, and everything is still in play. Competing polls show some important differences, but some trends are clear, and while nothing is irreversible the Canadian public has begun to sort out the differing claims and performances of the parties and their leaders.

Stephen Harper has to this point campaigned on two fronts, security and the economy, and has used what are now the traditional sharp elbows, dog whistles and foghorns to belittle the opposition and promote his own party. The Conservatives have made every pitch to their base imaginable and have used a seemingly limitless number of ads to make the point that Mr. Harper, and Mr. Harper alone, can lead the country, and that his opponents are at least incompetent and at worst dangerous.

The New Democrats began the election seemingly poised for victory, with both the party and Thomas Mulcair riding a crest of support and popularity. The Liberals started the campaign behind, with polls from the spring to the early summer showing the party locked in third place and Justin Trudeau well behind in the “best for PM” sweepstakes. The ads that suggested he wasn’t “ready” seemed to be having some effect, and the Liberal platform was, at that early point, not sufficiently broad or precise enough to define Mr. Trudeau’s leadership in the public mind.

This has now clearly changed. It is Mr. Mulcair who has fallen behind, and it is Mr. Trudeau who has taken the fight to Mr. Harper. A leader who was untested did well in all five debates, and his willingness to take on Mr. Mulcair and Mr. Harper showed a more relaxed and capable side of his personality than many had seen before. It is a testament to his focus and discipline, as well as his zest for campaigning, that the Liberal Party is in the position that it is at this point.

The Liberals also learned the lesson from past campaigns that when negative ads take hold they must be answered. Prior leaders were defined by the Conservatives and never able to shake those early impressions. In the early days it seemed the same thing might happen again for a third time. But it most definitely has not, because Mr. Trudeau and his team realized that the “not ready” and “nice hair” impressions had to be broken. The debates, the campaign focus, the steady elaboration of the platform, as well as a much more effective ad campaign, have blown those early stereotypes out of the water.

The Syrian crisis caught the government flat-footed, and revealed a sharp edge to their view of life that has left many voters cold. Mr. Trudeau’s decision to oppose the F-35 purchase, and to break out of Mr. Harper’s budget sandbox, and make investments quickly in infrastructure and jobs changed the direction and tone of the campaign, and appealed to many voters who had initially seemed sympathetic to the NDP.

The Conservatives are hoping that two new issues, the niqab and the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal, will help to redefine the campaign in its last days and swing things their way in the rush to election day. The election in Quebec is now a four-way affair, and when that happens the seat count can go in many different directions. The NDP is wrestling with the difficult reality that it is hard to stop a slide once it has taken hold, and a “crush” of one election can just as easily become a “crash” in the next.

Both the Conservatives and the NDP will try to turn the election these last few days into a referendum on the TPP deal announced this week. Ironically, Mr. Mulcair was an enthusiastic supporter of the deal just two months ago. But the opposition to the free-trade agenda is too deep inside the labour movement and Quebec farmers to allow him to voice anything but an “anti” position, even before the final details of the deal had been announced.

Mr. Trudeau’s measured response – that he would like to look at the deal and consider it before either endorsing or rejecting it – is more sensible. But the devil will always be in the details, and these will be debated for weeks and months to come before any final vote in Parliament.

Mr. Harper might like to pretend that without him a deal of this complexity would never have happened, but the reality is that any Canadian government would have taken its place at the table, and done everything possible to protect Canadian interests, both in ensuring market access in other countries, and protection for industries facing aggressive foreign competition.

The challenge for the Liberals is to build on Mr. Trudeau’s strong performance and popularity, the quality of its candidates, and the depth of its platform in these last two weeks. The other parties will do more than snipe – there will be a barrage of negativity and nastiness, and it will take even greater discipline to get beyond it.

But it can be done, and Canadians may well choose the politics of hope and hard work over the voices of division.

I agree with Mr Rae that a Liberal victory is a possibility ... what I don't think it is, yet, is a probability.

 

[ModlrMike]

Probably, in some cases.  But in others, it's a "free" choice governed by adherence to a religion.  Just as "free" as the choice to go to confession for Catholics.

But the free choice to go to confession or not does not come with the implied threat of violence from one's male family members.

 

[Privateer]

But the free choice to go to confession or not does not come with the implied threat of violence from one's male family members.

It boils down to this:  If an adult Muslim woman tells "the state" that she chooses to wear the niqab, should the state tell her that her choice is wrong and compel her to take it off?  I mean outside of specific situations of legitimate state interest, such as identifying herself before a government tribunal.  Should the state say, in these circumstances, that her statement as to choice is wrong, or invalid, or that the state just knows better?  I do not think so.

 

[Edward Campbell]

The Globe and Mail has a new Election Forecast to kick off the last two weeks of the campaign. The data suggests that there is a:

74% chance that the Conservatives get the most seats

5% chance that the NDP gets the most seats

22% chance that the Liberals get the most seats

And a

19% chance that the Green party gets more than one seat

7% chance that all three main parties win 100 seats or more

8% chance that any party gets a majority


The analysis is:

    Conservative lead widens as NDP slide in polls

    Paul Fairie
    Special to The Globe and Mail

    UPDATE OCT. 5:

    Polls released in the last week seem to be in general agreement on the slide by the NDP, driven largely by a decline in their vote share in Quebec, which is what the new Globe Election Forecast reflects. However, the
    polls have disagreed about what else is happening in the national race.

    Polls by both Forum and Angus Reid showed the Conservatives leading by a reasonably healthy six-to-seven-percentage-point margin, with the NDP and Liberals tied for second. If these polls ended up being the final result,
    the Conservatives would likely win a strong minority government, with the two remaining parties battling for Official Opposition status.

    Just as this narrative was emerging, three pollsters have, in the last few days, put the Liberals in first by a small margin. Léger and Innovative Research had the Liberals ahead by two percentage points, while the latest
    Nanos three-day rolling poll puts the Liberals ahead of the Conservatives by five, and a full 13 points ahead of the NDP.

    These last few polls might be picking up the beginnings of a Liberal surge, but in the context of the last week of polls, it’s still not quite clear enough. If there is a real increase in the Liberal vote, they will surely be able
    to repeat their performance over the next few days of polling. If this is the case, the forecast will accordingly become more favourable to them. If, instead, the mixed messages of the last week are repeated, the Forecast
    should remain steady.

    SEPT. 25: The Conservatives have re-taken the lead in the Globe Election Forecast for two reasons. First, a strong performance in an EKOS poll gave the party 35 per cent of the national vote, compared to just 26 per cent
    for the Liberals and 25 for the NDP. If these results are repeated by other firms in the next few days, this is very good news for the government; if the poll is an outlier, this will become clear in short order, and its effect in the Forecast
    will wash out. Second, the NDP have polled somewhat weaker than usual in Quebec, most notably in the most recent Léger poll. While still in first, and down compared to earlier polls in the range of eight percentage points, losing grip
    on even 10 seats in a three-way race reduces any party's chances of winning the most seats.

    Sept. 22: Public opinion data has been streaming in since the federal leaders' debate last Thursday, and all evidence suggests that voters remain as divided as ever.

    Winning a debate isn't the same thing as winning an election. A better measure of who won can be seen by looking at who moved the most votes. Here, too, signals are mixed. While the Nanos 3-day tracking poll showed its usual
    three-way race, Ipsos had the Liberals taking a small lead. The last time they had the Liberals in first was back in late May when they were tied at 31 per cent with the Conservatives. Similarly, the Liberals continue their gradual
    improvement in the Globe Election Forecast.

    Sept. 14: As the polls draw even to a three-way split in the popular vote, so do the odds of each party winning the most seats. While the NDP and Conservatives remain ahead, the Liberals continue to improve their chances of winning the
    largest parliamentary caucus primarily as a result of their recent strong polling performances in Ontario.

    Friday, Sept. 8: The close three-way race in the federal election has become even tighter in the last week. A diminished Conservative vote coupled with growing Liberal support now gives all three parties with a realistic shot of winning the most seats
    in October. A consequence of this three-way race is seen in the Election Forecast's estimate of the likelihood of a majority government: just 2.2 per cent.

    Wednesday, Sept. 2: The Globe’s forecast now predicts that the NDP are the most likely party to win the largest number of seats, with the party leading in 53 per cent of the simulations. This follows a string of seven consecutive national polls each
    showing a lead of between 1 and 10 percentage points for the New Democrats.

    The seven poll lead was reported by seven different pollsters, using three different methods: traditional telephone, interactive voice response (IVR) and online surveys. The New Democrats have only had such a string of good polling on two separate
    occasions during this parliament: earlier this year in June, and in the May-June period of 2012.

    In good news for the Liberals, three recent polls, by Nanos, Ipsos Reid and Forum, have showed the party in second place, ahead of the Conservatives. Furthermore, polls consistently suggest the gap between first and third place is under 5 percentage points.

    This all reinforces how unusual this election is: the best a third-place party has ever done in terms of vote share was in 1988, when the Ed Broadbent-led NDP won 20.4 per cent of the vote. Currently, we’re in a situation where whatever party is
    polling in third is earning 25 per cent popular support.

    Paul Fairie is a University of Calgary political scientist who studies voter behaviour, who designed The Globe’s Election Forecast.

 

[George Wallace]

Don't despair, Altair!    Watch this video and then go out and vote for almost anyone ... because some of these dimwits are probably going to vote, you need to add some intelligence to the process.

OH GOD!  Those are the people who elected Kathleen Wynne.  Torontonians.    :

That was as bad a Rick Mercer's piece on Americans.  I am sure only the dumbest answers were kept and all correct answers edited out, but still a discouraging look at what we have as an electorate.

 

[jollyjacktar]

I am deriving much pleasure at the Stuka impression the Dipper campaign is displaying.  Very talented, that lot.  I can even hear the horns of Jericho siren wailing under the wings.  Question is, will they pull up or lawn dart?

 

[Edward Campbell]

It boils down to this:  If an adult Muslim woman tells "the state" that she chooses to wear the niqab, should the state tell her that her choice is wrong and compel her to take it off?  I mean outside of specific situations of legitimate state interest, such as identifying herself before a government tribunal.  Should the state say, in these circumstances, that her statement as to choice is wrong, or invalid, or that the state just knows better?  I do not think so.

I agree ... there are (some) legitimate reasons to require everyone to show their face. Public ceremonies do not meet the test.

That being said, it it my understanding that the Muslim "dress regulations, women" have nothing much to do with Islam, per se, but are, rather, a reflection of 8th century Arab culture. I wish people would leave their old culture in their old country ... but conservatives, for example, love Eastern European folk dancing, so what's so wrong with a niqab?

 

[George Wallace]

Speaking from personal knowledge, a prominent member of the Islamist clergy in the middle east told me that if they can obtain a 5% population level in any country they can effect serious change and at 15 to 20% they expect to be enable to initiate legal changes to implement Sharia.  Look no further than the no-go zones in Malmo, London, Brussels and Paris to see that this is accurate so no, the government is not blowing smoke.  I wish that was true.

This 'attack' on our culture, is what many are starting to fear as affecting their future.  The MSM are in a way stirring this fear through the internet, and in reporting.  Omissions in reporting are also painting the Israel as conducting attacks on Palestinians and other Muslims, in ignoring the numerous attacks on and murders of Israelis.  The plight of the Muslims fleeing in the face of IS is reported, but very little is said of the other religious minorities that are being more brutally persecuted.  Slowly the Western and Canadian public are opening their eyes to seek the truth.  Perhaps their fears are more legitimate than some would make them.