Election 2015

[Rocky Mountains]

Nanos keeps having the Liberal lead climbing but it is pretty much unique.  Today's Ipsos Reid has the Conservatives ahead.  It isn't over yet.  Because they call 400 every day, I wonder if Nanos hasn't gotten lazy and keeps calling back cooperative people.  Once I spent 30 minutes answering a poll and swore never again.  I kept getting called back regularly for 6 months until they gave up.

http://www.electionalmanac.com/ea/canada-election-polls/

 

[Remius]

Nanos keeps having the Liberal lead climbing but it is pretty much unique.  Today's Ipsos Reid has the Conservatives ahead.  It isn't over yet.  Because they call 400 every day, I wonder if Nanos hasn't gotten lazy and keeps calling back cooperative people.  Once I spent 30 minutes answering a poll and swore never again.  I kept getting called back regularly for 6 months until they gave up.

http://www.electionalmanac.com/ea/canada-election-polls/

In all fairness Eric Grenier and his poll tracker shows the Liberals climbing as well and gaining in Ontario.  However it shows despite the liberals leading, that the Conservatives still have the more effective seat count.  But his recent prediction only shows a 4 seat difference.  The CPC needs gains.  stagnancy won't help,if the Liberals keep the momentum up.

 

[Rocky Mountains]

Someone updated the ABC veterans thread.

Along the same line as ABC, Danny Williams offers his opinion on the PM. 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/danny-williams-stephen-harper-election-1.3256756

Danny Williams, isn't he dead?  In my opinion Danny Williams is one bitter and twisted cranky old man.  I suspect that the Newfoundland transition from have-not to have hasn't gone well in his opinion.  To see one of only four have provinces crying the blues??  Note that its newfound wealth has arisen under, in his opinion, an economically incompetent Conservative government. 

 

[Rocky Mountains]

In all fairness Eric Grenier and his poll tracker shows the Liberals climbing as well and gaining in Ontario. 

My point is, if you take away Nanos, there is no Liberal lead and Grenier counts Nanos as 54% and hasn't reported Ipsos Reid's Conservative lead.

 

[Remius]

Danny Williams, isn't he dead?  In my opinion Danny Williams is one bitter and twisted cranky old man.  I suspect that the Newfoundland transition from have-not to have hasn't gone well in his opinion.  To see one of only four have provinces crying the blues??  Note that its newfound wealth has arisen under, in his opinion, an economically incompetent Conservative government.

No doubt.  But I'm sure he still has sway there. He certainly holds a grudge.

 

[PuckChaser]

Any poll that puts the Tories or Liberals ahead, I take with a grain of salt. I really see them in a statistical tie, with both climbing as the NDP fades into the rearview mirror.

The real story in this election might be how the NDP snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, almost similar to the Liberals in 2011, although I don't see them dropping that far in the seat count.

 

[Brad Sallows]

The NDP is tanking because, like the scorpion, the party can't change its nature.  The NDP is not ready to be a federal party until it learns to control the message (eg. extremist sub-factions) and put the needs of the many (all Canadians) before the needs of the few (narrow interests).

Leap Manifesto.

Pandering to QC (commitments to nerfing the Clarity Act, special opt-out provisions, federal money to add to daycare pot, particular fragments of the TPP).

Blathering on about the middle class and jobs while missing concrete chances to stand in favour of - or at least not appear to disfavour - economic growth and jobs (resource extraction, pipelines, LAVs, TPP).  Workers may have figured out that the NDP has been captured by academics, celebrities, and comfortably well-off upper white collar posers and is no longer the party of the working man.  (Neither is the LPC, which is not far from the NDP on most of these issues - antipathetic if not outright hostile.)

 

[Altair]

The NDP is tanking because, like the scorpion, the party can't change its nature.  The NDP is not ready to be a federal party until it learns to control the message (eg. extremist sub-factions) and put the needs of the many (all Canadians) before the needs of the few (narrow interests).

Leap Manifesto.

Pandering to QC (commitments to nerfing the Clarity Act, special opt-out provisions, federal money to add to daycare pot, particular fragments of the TPP).

Blathering on about the middle class and jobs while missing concrete chances to stand in favour of - or at least not appear to disfavour - economic growth and jobs (resource extraction, pipelines, LAVs, TPP).  Workers may have figured out that the NDP has been captured by academics, celebrities, and comfortably well-off upper white collar posers and is no longer the party of the working man.  (Neither is the LPC, which is not far from the NDP on most of these issues - antipathetic if not outright hostile.)

All of these issues were on the table before and the ndp was right in the mix.

The NDP is tanking because their quebec nationalists wing is revolting over the niqab issue. And as their sky high quebec support levels drop their national numbers drop. As people who want the CPC out of goverment look at these dropping numbers they figure the ndp cannot defeat CPC the ndp support drops in the ROC.

The ndp had one job, appease their quebec nationalist base and they went and pissed them off.

 

[ModlrMike]

According to this article, which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the National Post, Ontario Premier Wynne is back on the campaign train for M Trudeau...

Personally, I would rather all Provincial Premiers stayed out of the federal election. It feels like something unseemly and smacks of having two kicks at the cat. Particularly when those same campaigners get a knot in their collective faces if the federal government appears to be influencing a provincial election.

That being said, the more Ms Wynne can do for Mr Harper, the better.

 

[Edward Campbell]

I have a sense that some Conservatives are planning on sitting this election out. They believe that Prime Minister Harper and, indeed, the whole Conservative "brain trust" have run out of ideas, that their vision is tired and dated and that they need a rest from governing in order to recharge the party ~ a new leader ~ and reshape the vision. (This sense is based on a very, very small sample of people I know, I would not be prepared to call it a trend or anything like that.) A few of those Conservatives are, actually, prepared to vote for other parties but most just plan to stay away from the polls. (I'm not one of them, despite the fact that I have many problems with the current governing party and even more problems with both the viable government-in-waiting parties, I will go out and vote because I believe it is a civic duty.)

But, I suspect that Premier Wynne's re-entry into the campaign may change a few minds. Premier Wynne is reported to be keen on five issues: Climate change; Refugees and international trade (why they are grouped together is beyond me); Infrastructure and transit; Aboriginals and Pensions. I believe that her views on at least one and, in a few cases, all five of those issues will be enough to drive some reluctant Conservatives out from behind their "lace curtains," and to the polling stations. The key question is: how many? Are those "reluctant Conservatives" enough, as they were in the UK, this spring, to shift the balance, or not?

 

[Edward Campbell]

Sadly, I'm afraid you're both right. Bob Rae said that most of us are politically illiterate, I suspect that our apparent inability to appreciate the consequences (great (global) and small (personal)) of trade deals is part of what he meant.

But, not everyone agrees: John Ibbitson, in this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail, suggests that both the great and small aspects are at play, and that the deal works against the Liberals:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/globe-politics-insider/liberals-need-tpp-pact-to-fade-quickly-as-an-issue/article26676589/

Liberals need TPP pact to fade quickly as an issue

SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

John Ibbitson
OTTAWA — The Globe and Mail

Published Tuesday, Oct. 06, 2015

t was fitting that Justin Trudeau released his party’s election platform at the very same time leaders from Canada and 11 other nations were heralding the completion of the Trans-Pacific Partnership talks. The Liberals have a credible shot at winning this election and forming the next government. But for that to happen, they need the TPP to disappear as an issue.

One wise observer of the scene does think it will disappear. The new agreement will not be a major factor in the election, predicts pollster Nik Nanos. The Liberals no doubt devoutly hope he is right.

For proof of how uncomfortable the TPP makes the Liberals, consider Mr. Trudeau’s response when questioned about the new agreement on Monday.

“We’re a pro-trade party, but we’re going to look carefully at the elements of this deal to ensure that it is in the best interests of Canadians,” he replied, promising “a full and responsible and open discussion, both in Parliament and with Canadians so that we make the right decision going forward for Canada.” Mr. Trudeau’s support, if that’s what it was, for the agreement couldn’t possibly have come with more qualifications.

Also, it was more than a bit of a stretch for him to assert, “we’re a pro-trade party.” The Liberal Party fiercely opposed the Canada-U.S. trade agreement and only reluctantly ratified the North American free-trade agreement with the U.S. and Mexico that Brian Mulroney’s government had signed.

In power, the Liberals were weak-kneed on trade, entering into negotiations with both South Korea and Singapore, only to back out under pressure from domestic interests. It was Stephen Harper’s Conservatives who finally sealed a deal with the South Koreans last year and with Singapore as part of the TPP.

But the Liberals did support the Harper government’s free-trade agreement with the European Union. So if you strongly support or oppose the TPP, you can’t trust the Liberal Party to ratify or reject the agreement.

The truth is, any debate over the TPP interrupts the Liberal narrative of Mr. Trudeau as the true agent of progressive change after 10 years of Mr. Harper. It could cause voters to forget about Liberal plans to tax the rich and give the money to the middle class, to fund infrastructure programs through deficit financing, to improve child-care subsidies for the less well-off, while eliminating them for the better-off.

Most of all, it threatens the Liberal assertion that NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair has hewed so closely to the Conservatives in promising to keep the budget balanced that only Mr. Trudeau can be trusted as a progressive alternative to Mr. Harper.

Now it is Mr. Mulcair who is pounding the podium and condemning the TPP as a threat to workers, while Mr. Trudeau mumbles about consultation.

It suits both the Conservatives and the NDP to treat each other as mighty opposites on the question of ratifying the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement. Both parties can use the issue to rally their base and attract free-floating voters. Both want to see the Liberals marginalized, and the TPP does that splendidly.

The good news for the Liberals is that Mr. Nanos believes the furor over the TPP will quickly pass.

“The campaign fundamentally will still be about who is the least risky choice and whether people want change or not,” he said Monday. The TPP, he believes, will play only a marginal role for voters making that choice.

If Mr. Nanos is right, then the trade issue will recede and the Liberal momentum will resume. If trade does trump other issues, then the Liberals could be in trouble. It won’t take long to figure out which is true.

Of course, this deal is a policy "win" for the Conservatives and it might be a political/campaign "win" too, if they can spin it correctly: at the personal, pocket book level, for the "average" middle class suburbanite living around the Golden Horseshoe, in Greater Vancouver and so on across the country.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Another poll: this one from Mainstreet/Postmedia:

         

(A point of minor importance: the Mainstreet margin of error is 1.9% 19 times out of 20, the Nanos margin is 2.6%. MOEs are tricky and less important that what questions are asked, how they are asked and how respondents are selected (land-line phone only; a mix of land-line and mobile, etc.)

 

[Edward Campbell]

Margaret Wente, who is a generally conservative columnist in the Globe and Mail, contrasts and compares Justin Trudeau and Prime Minister Stephen Harper in this opinion piece which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from that newspaper:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/if-trudeau-is-the-bridge-harper-is-the-wedge/article26664422/

If Trudeau is the bridge, Harper is the wedge

MARGARET WENTE
The Globe and Mail

Published Tuesday, Oct. 06, 2015

Stephen Harper’s worst fear has come true. After nearly a decade in power and a marathon campaign, the biggest challenge to his leadership turns out to be a Trudeau. A Trudeau with all the camera appeal and physical giftedness of his father, but without the towering intellect. A hugely energetic politician with an adorable young family and a powerful ability to connect. A rival who may be short on content, but is long on charm.

Justin Trudeau is the anti-Harper. NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair has turned into an also-ran. People have bought the message: If you want change, vote for Justin.

On Sunday, Mr. Trudeau spoke to a big Liberal rally in Brampton, Ont., where Trudeaumaniacs had been bused in by the thousands from across the province. “The prime minister’s job is to bring Canadians together, not to tear us apart,” he told the crowd. “[Mr. Harper’s] first instinct is to appeal to the worst instincts. He and his party have brought unprecedented nastiness to our country’s public life.” He, Justin, will be a unifier, not a divider. He will build bridges, not burn them.

At times, Mr. Trudeau sounds like a camp counsellor leading a rousing chorus of Kumbaya. Consultation, collaboration and goodwill are the way to resolve all our national divisions, he promises. If we only listened to each other, we’d all get along! If Mr. Trudeau is the bridge, then Mr. Harper is the wedge. Niqab politics. Stripping convicted terrorists of citizenship. Promising hot lines so that citizens can report suspicious sightings of “barbaric cultural practices.”

This is naked election opportunism. The elite media are convinced that Mr. Harper is whipping the masses into a dangerous xenophobic lather. Yet they can’t explain why the overwhelming majority of the masses – not just the fearful, ignorant, Conservative ones – more or less agree with him. Perhaps our country really is a seething hotbed of bigotry. Or perhaps people have legitimate concerns about tolerance and belonging.

Ironically, the biggest trade deal in history – a matter of infinitely more consequence than the niqab – is getting a lot less air time. The Trans-Pacific Partnership, which gives Canada preferential access to huge Asian markets, is probably more important to the middle class than any other issue in this election. But neither the media nor Mr. Trudeau can make much hay from it. Too boring! Besides, the Liberals are free traders too. The only non-free trader is Mr. Mulcair, who seems to think that dairy cartels are good for poor people.

The Liberals weren’t always so responsible. In Justin’s father’s day they were wild-eyed economic radicals. Pierre Trudeau’s national energy program imposed draconian controls over the energy industry and sowed the seeds for western alienation – as well as for Mr. Harper’s political career. Few people outside Alberta remember what a deeply divisive figure Mr. Trudeau was; he was nearly as loathed as Mr. Harper is.

Mr. Harper’s contempt for the Trudeau name and the Liberal brand is not just political, but cultural. These are the eastern elites that ran Canada forever – arrogant, entitled, and disastrously wrong-headed in their belief in big government. These are the reasons he fled Toronto and headed west.

So for Mr. Harper this is personal, insofar as anything is personal with him. Being bested by Justin would be truly galling.

Mr. Harper had a vision for what he wanted to accomplish as PM, and, for better or for worse, he has accomplished much of it. So did Justin’s father. But what is Justin’s vision? Ian Brown’s fascinating profile of Mr. Trudeau in Saturday’s Globe and Mail includes some telling comments from Bob Rae, the retired Liberal politician, whom he interviewed in April. “I don’t think he knows,” Mr. Rae said then. “I think the thing we don’t know enough about Justin is whether his leadership is about more than just him.”

In fact, Mr. Brown argues, Mr. Trudeau has articulated a vision. It can be summed up as “the prosperity of the middle class, a healthy democracy and sustainable economy.” Whether that amounts to something more than slogans on a T-shirt is up to you.

But maybe it doesn’t matter. As Mr. Rae said, “He’s not the smartest guy in the room. But he knows how to reach a room.” And that is Mr. Harper’s greatest fear.

Those who follow my meandering musing here on Army.ca will not be surprised to learn that I agree with Ms Wente.

I like M Trudeau ~ who doesn't? He's a most likeable young man. I also admire his courage in articulating a contrarian economic/fiscal policy. But I also believe, firmly, that he is a nice, pleasant, wholly vacuous young man who regurgitates "slogans on a T-shirt" because he hasn't any vision beyond Kumbaya.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Another poll: this one from Mainstreet/Postmedia:

         

(A point of minor importance: the Mainstreet margin of error is 1.9% 19 times out of 20, the Nanos margin is 2.6%. MOEs are tricky and less important that what questions are asked, how they are asked and how respondents are selected (land-line phone only; a mix of land-line and mobile, etc.)

Bryan Breguet (University of British Columbia) adds some thoughts on polls and poling in this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from Too Close To Call:

http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2015/10/new-mainstreet-poll-shows-huge.html?m

Too Close To Call
New Mainstreet poll shows a huge Conservative lead

Bryan Breguet

Tuesday, October 06, 2015

The fact that Nanos is the only firm providing daily updates is annoying. It means they effectively dictate a lot of the coverage about the horse race in this campaign. And this is a little bit absurd because Nanos only polls 400 respondents every day. So really, there is no point in comparing Nanos' numbers of yesterday and today. I have nothing against Nanos - I consider them as one of the best polling firms in this country and regret they don't poll more often. But it can create a false narrative.

Why am I talking about this? Because Nanos has shown an important (and increasing) lead nationally for the Liberals for a few days. Therefore a lot of people believe that this is the current trend. A lot of people are discarding the polls showing a big CPC lead (namely Angus-Reid, Forum and Ekos) because they are slightly older.

This is correct if there was really a quick shift in voting intentions. But Ipsos yesterday and Mainstreet this morning show that it's most likely not the case [Note: as of 5:45am Eastern time, the poll hasn't been published on Mainstreet's wbsite. However I got a copy of the pdf and there was no embargo attached to it. I'll update with the right link as soon as I can]. Ipsos actually shows the CPC slightly increasing, albeit not significantly. Mainstreet's numbers are more shocking. The Conservatives are ahead with 37% of the votes among leaning and decided voters. Liberals are at 29% while the NDP is now far behind at 24%.

Not only do the Tories have the lead, they would be 10 points ahead in Ontario! This means that a majority couldn't be excluded. Specifically, using this poll only, I'd get 153 CPC, 87 Liberals and 96 NDP. The probability of a Tory majority would be 6.6%. Yes, that's right, we have a poll showing a chance for a majority. It's only one poll, but still. And while some polls can sometimes look like outliers, it's still nice that they are published. At least we can avoid surprises like in the UK last year.

Look, I'm not saying Mainstreet is right and Nanos is wrong (I believe the truth is in the middle). All I'm saying is that the poll average doesn't and shouldn't show the Liberals in first place. Also, yes some polls show a close race or a small lead for the Grits (Leger, Innovative) but others show a large CPC lead. It's possible one group of pollsters is right and the other is off. We had a similar situation in Ontario last year. It remains that even polls that are favourable to the Liberals at best show a close race in terms of seats. While polls favouring the Tories show them close to a majority.

Mainstreet also shows, unsurprisingly, that Conservatives voters are the most committed.

If you want to pick your polling firm, go ahead. I'll personally keep averaging. And doing so shows me that Stephen Harper is really well positioned to win the most seats. I would advise against discarding polls simply because the results don't please you.

I'm also covering this Mainstreet poll because it contains a lot of questions beside the voting intentions. For instance, we learn that 61% of Canadians are against being allowed to wear the Niqab for a citizenship ceremony. And no, this isn't only in Quebec. Although with 70% of people against it, this is the province the least tolerant of wearing this religious sign.

I'm especially interested in the questions regarding what should happen if Harper doesn't win a majority. We learn that public opinion is evenly split (42% on each side, 16% unsure) regarding a Liberals-NDP coalition. Support is the highest in Quebec (50%) and the lowest in Alberta (18%). In Ontario, it's a tie.

The follow up question is even more interesting. If Harper forms the government and is defeated at the House of Commons, 47% of people would want another party to try, while 26% would prefer another election.

So, people seem to think that whoever wins the most seats should at least get to try. And if it fails, then the other party(ies) can try. This is, quite honestly, a position that makes a lot of sense.

We'll likely get a new Forum tomorrow and a new Ekos soon. Throw another Abacus in and we'll be able to better judge the current situation. I think the only thing pollsters agree on is that the NDP is falling. But beyond this, and especially in Ontario, there is a lot of disagreement.

I reiterate: it is the trends identified nationally and regionally in all the polls that matter, not just Nanos or Maintreet or any of the others.


Edit: capitalization & spelling  :-[

 

[Edward Campbell]

Also from Too Close To Call, here are their latest seat projections:

         

These are fairly consistent with e.g. the Globe and Mail and David Akin's Predictionator, except for the 99.1% chance to win the most seats.

 

[Cloud Cover]

I guess it is about time to start thinking what the GG will do in the event of non-confidence. He is a scholarly expert in constitutional matters like this. I believe this is why Harper had him appointed.

The GG is not necessarily bound to follow convention, this is one thing he has made clear on this matter. I do not believe he will ask any 2 parties with diametrically opposing views to have a coalition and hold the reigns of power.
My guess is that he may reply with "hold a runoff election, or start working with the opposition." There is no legal or constitutional bar to that, and quite arguably there is a strong argument to be made that convention need not be followed.

 

[YZT580]

Is the Bloc really that weak or do they have a reasonable chance to ruin the prospects of both the liberals and NDP in Quebec?

 

[jollyjacktar]

Just finished voting here at work.  I surprised myself and voted differently then I would have ever expected to do so.  The choice became clear when I was handed the list of candidates running in my riding.  It's nice to be able to give the finger to the big four and still vote for someone.

 

[Edward Campbell]

I guess it is about time to start thinking what the GG will do in the event of non-confidence. He is a scholarly expert in constitutional matters like this. I believe this is why Harper had him appointed.

The GG is not necessarily bound to follow convention, this is one thing he has made clear on this matter. I do not believe he will ask any 2 parties with diametrically opposing views to have a coalition and hold the reigns of power.
My guess is that he may reply with "hold a runoff election, or start working with the opposition." There is no legal or constitutional bar to that, and quite arguably there is a strong argument to be made that convention need not be followed.

My take is that the sovereign's (therefore the GG's) first duty is to ensure that the country has a functioning government ~ one that can secure the confidence of the House of Commons for, at least, supply, that is to vote the money necessary to meet day-to-day operations.

Convention seems to me to dictate that, unless or until he resigns, Prime Minister Harper should be allowed to try to form a government that can secure the confidence of the house. If he will not (resigns because he took a drubbing at the polls) or cannot (loses a vote) then the GG has choices.

One course open to Prime Minister Harper, at the head of a minority government that seems doomed to fall, might be to:

    1. Announce his resignation and call a Conservative Party leadership convention for, say, mid Feb 2016;

    2. Meet the House and ask for a vote of interim supply ~ enough spending authority to keep the government running until May or Jun 2016;

    3. Ask the GG to prorogue parliament (until after the CPC leadership convention).

There is a political convention, a "gentlemen's agreement" if you like, that parties do not call or force elections while one of them (the main ones) is having a leadership convention. (If the election comes out as the polls indicate then, perhaps, both the CPC and NDP will want to have leadership contests in the winter of 2015/16.)

A new Conservative PM might then recall parliament in, say, March and produce a throne speech and start leaking details of an election budget. The opposition would, very likely, vote down the throne speech and then the GG would drop the writs, again, for another general election in, say, May.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Just finished voting here at work.  I surprised myself and voted differently then I would have ever expected to do so.  The choice became clear when I was handed the list of candidates running in my riding.  It's nice to be able to give the finger to the big four and still vote for someone.

Good for you! I sincerely hope everyone on Army.ca will get out and vote. Spoil your ballot, if you must, but show up and be counted. Hopefully all of us, like JJT, can find at least one worthy candidate.