Election 2015

[Remius]

I've mentioned it before.  as much as the TPP is a bigh deal, the average Canatdian has no clue what it emans and likely care less.  Those Canadians taht will catre are the auto sector ridings and some rural ridings where support for the deal is not exactly warm.  I suspect this is why we are seeing 4 billion dollars over 15 years to protect the farming sector but I'm not sure that will quell their fears.

Both types of ridings especially in Ontario are key to both the Liberals and the CPC.  One only has to look at Glenngarry-Prescott to see the type of battle that is shaping in some rural ridings.

 

[Altair]

I don't believe it's that big an issue.

The only really big issue this election has been the NDP dropping the ball on the niqab.

 

[George Wallace]

I've mentioned it before.  as much as the TPP is a bigh deal, the average Canatdian has no clue what it emans and likely care less.  Those Canadians taht will catre are the auto sector ridings and some rural ridings where support for the deal is not exactly warm.  I suspect this is why we are seeing 4 billion dollars over 15 years to protect the farming sector but I'm not sure that will quell their fears.

Both types of ridings especially in Ontario are key to both the Liberals and the CPC.  One only has to look at Glenngarry-Prescott to see the type of battle that is shaping in some rural ridings.

Well.  If our largest trading partners are all members of the TPP, that sort of drags us into it as well.  To remain out of it would only ruin our economy.  If Mulcair wants to take us out of it, if he is elected, then he is no better than Chretien and J. Trudeau with their halting military purchases in spite of the Conservative Governments signed contracts.  Another case of throwing money into the wind and getting nothing in return; while at the same time hurting our own Industry. 

 

[Altair]

Well.  If our largest trading partners are all members of the TPP, that sort of drags us into it as well.  To remain out of it would only ruin our economy.  If Mulcair wants to take us out of it, if he is elected, then he is no better than Chretien and J. Trudeau with their halting military purchases in spite of the Conservative Governments signed contracts.  Another case of throwing money into the wind and getting nothing in return; while at the same time hurting our own Industry.

No contract is signed with regards to the f-35 and Lockheed Martin has already said that Canadian industry contribution to the plane would continue whether or not canada bought any.

 

[George Wallace]

No contract is signed with regards to the f-35 and Lockheed Martin has already said that Canadian industry contribution to the plane would continue whether or not canada bought any.

Perhaps no contract on actual purchase of the F-35, but billions in R&D. 

 

[Altair]

Perhaps no contract on actual purchase of the F-35, but billions in R&D.

True.

I can only imagine any other supplier of aircraft would agree to build them in partnership with canada, I think dassault has already said as much,  I don't remember about SAAB.

Probably a wash at the end of the day, no?

Besides, wasn't the F35 being reevaluated after the AG report anyways?

 

[Edward Campbell]

I don't believe it's that big an issue.
...

I've mentioned it before.  as much as the TPP is a bigh deal, the average Canatdian has no clue what it emans and likely care less.  Those Canadians taht will catre are the auto sector ridings and some rural ridings where support for the deal is not exactly warm.  I suspect this is why we are seeing 4 billion dollars over 15 years to protect the farming sector but I'm not sure that will quell their fears.

Both types of ridings especially in Ontario are key to both the Liberals and the CPC.  One only has to look at Glenngarry-Prescott to see the type of battle that is shaping in some rural ridings.

Sadly, I'm afraid you're both right. Bob Rae said that most of us are politically illiterate, I suspect that our apparent inability to appreciate the consequences (great (global) and small (personal)) of trade deals is part of what he meant.

 

[Edward Campbell]

The three day Nanos numbers at a glance:

                        >>>>-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------->>

Two points:

    1. Other polls may, most likely will, show other, perhaps quite different, results; and

    2. There are, now, two full weeks of hard, full throttle, no holds barred campaigning to go ~ including the Thanksgiving weekend.

Oh, and yes, effective today, I think the polls matter because I believe ~ there is some, but not a whole lot of evidence to support me ~ that polls matter to voters. The (scarce and conflicting) evidence suggests that some voters are enticed to switch, to back the winner, if you like, which would, right now, help M Trudeau to gather up some soft NDP supporters ~ see strategic voting, just above. The other factor is that polls seem to energize the undecided, silent majority, the one "behind the lace curtains," as appears to have happened in the UK, and if that happens here it will likely favour the CPC.

The Globe and Mail's Election Forecast, which is based on recent polls and riding-by-riding analysis is still showing an upward trend (from a 50% chance of forming a government, to 55%, to 58% and, now, to a whopping 65% chance of forming a government) in its latest forecast which is for a:

    65% chance that the Conservatives get the most seats

    10% chance that the NDP gets the most seats

    26% chance that the Liberals get the most seats

And

    21% chance that the Green party gets more than one seat

    13% chance that all three main parties win 100 seats or more

    2% chance that any party gets a majority


Conservative lead widens as NDP slide in polls

Paul Fairie
Special to The Globe and Mail

UPDATE OCT. 5:

Polls released in the last week seem to be in general agreement on the slide by the NDP, driven largely by a decline in their vote share in Quebec, which is what the new Globe Election Forecast reflects. However, the polls have disagreed about what else is happening in the national race.

Polls by both Forum and Angus Reid showed the Conservatives leading by a reasonably healthy six-to-seven-percentage-point margin, with the NDP and Liberals tied for second. If these polls ended up being the final result, the Conservatives would likely win a strong minority government, with the two remaining parties battling for Official Opposition status.

Just as this narrative was emerging, three pollsters have, in the last few days, put the Liberals in first by a small margin. Léger and Innovative Research had the Liberals ahead by two percentage points, while the latest Nanos three-day rolling poll puts the Liberals ahead of the Conservatives by five, and a full 13 points ahead of the NDP.

These last few polls might be picking up the beginnings of a Liberal surge, but in the context of the last week of polls, it’s still not quite clear enough. If there is a real increase in the Liberal vote, they will surely be able to repeat their performance over the next few days of polling. If this is the case, the forecast will accordingly become more favourable to them. If, instead, the mixed messages of the last week are repeated, the Forecast should remain steady.

SEPT. 25: The Conservatives have re-taken the lead in the Globe Election Forecast for two reasons. First, a strong performance in an EKOS poll gave the party 35 per cent of the national vote, compared to just 26 per cent for the Liberals and 25 for the NDP. If these results are repeated by other firms in the next few days, this is very good news for the government; if the poll is an outlier, this will become clear in short order, and its effect in the Forecast will wash out. Second, the NDP have polled somewhat weaker than usual in Quebec, most notably in the most recent Léger poll. While still in first, and down compared to earlier polls in the range of eight percentage points, losing grip on even 10 seats in a three-way race reduces any party's chances of winning the most seats.

Sept. 22: Public opinion data has been streaming in since the federal leaders' debate last Thursday, and all evidence suggests that voters remain as divided as ever.

Winning a debate isn't the same thing as winning an election. A better measure of who won can be seen by looking at who moved the most votes. Here, too, signals are mixed. While the Nanos 3-day tracking poll showed its usual three-way race, Ipsos had the Liberals taking a small lead. The last time they had the Liberals in first was back in late May when they were tied at 31 per cent with the Conservatives. Similarly, the Liberals continue their gradual improvement in the Globe Election Forecast.

Sept. 14: As the polls draw even to a three-way split in the popular vote, so do the odds of each party winning the most seats. While the NDP and Conservatives remain ahead, the Liberals continue to improve their chances of winning the largest parliamentary caucus primarily as a result of their recent strong polling performances in Ontario.

Friday, Sept. 8: The close three-way race in the federal election has become even tighter in the last week. A diminished Conservative vote coupled with growing Liberal support now gives all three parties with a realistic shot of winning the most seats in October. A consequence of this three-way race is seen in the Election Forecast's estimate of the likelihood of a majority government: just 2.2 per cent.

Wednesday, Sept. 2: The Globe’s forecast now predicts that the NDP are the most likely party to win the largest number of seats, with the party leading in 53 per cent of the simulations. This follows a string of seven consecutive national polls each showing a lead of between 1 and 10 percentage points for the New Democrats.

The seven poll lead was reported by seven different pollsters, using three different methods: traditional telephone, interactive voice response (IVR) and online surveys. The New Democrats have only had such a string of good polling on two separate occasions during this parliament: earlier this year in June, and in the May-June period of 2012.

In good news for the Liberals, three recent polls, by Nanos, Ipsos Reid and Forum, have showed the party in second place, ahead of the Conservatives. Furthermore, polls consistently suggest the gap between first and third place is under 5 percentage points.

This all reinforces how unusual this election is: the best a third-place party has ever done in terms of vote share was in 1988, when the Ed Broadbent-led NDP won 20.4 per cent of the vote. Currently, we’re in a situation where whatever party is polling in third is earning 25 per cent popular support.

Paul Fairie is a University of Calgary political scientist who studies voter behaviour, who designed The Globe’s Election Forecast.

 

[Good2Golf]

No contract is signed with regards to the f-35 and Lockheed Martin has already said that Canadian industry contribution to the plane would continue whether or not canada bought any.

Are you certain you "quoted" Lockheed-Martin correctly?  The information you note above is incorrect.

It would be appropriate to refer to facts, and in this case, those provided by the Government of Canada specifically regarding the agreement between the GoC and prime-contractors Lockheed-Martin and Pratt & Whitney, to wit:


Public Works and Government Services Canada - National Fighter Procurement Secretariat: FAQs

9. Opportunities for Canadian Industry - Joint Strike Fighter Program

Industrial Participation Report - Fall 2014

Q1. Are industrial participation values contingent upon Canada procuring the F-35?

Yes. The 2006 Memoranda of Understanding between the Government of Canada and the prime contractors (Lockheed Martin and Pratt & Whitney) state that continued access to industrial opportunities is contingent upon the Government of Canada remaining a partner in the Program and procuring the Joint Strike Fighter (F-35) aircraft.

Q2. How is Canadian industry benefiting from the Joint Strike Fighter Program? How many companies are involved?

According to the most recent numbers received from the prime contractors, companies in Canada have secured US $637 million in contracts, an increase of US $50 million over the results reported in the Canadian Industrial Participation in the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter Program report tabled in Parliament in Summer 2014. Currently, 33 companies have active contracts.

New skills and technologies gained through the F-35 Program have helped position Canadian industry to take advantage of other advanced aerospace and defence projects. For instance, GasTOPS of Ottawa, Ontario developed debris sensors for the F-35's engine. As a result, their sensors were chosen by Pratt & Whitney for inclusion on the new geared turbofan engines that will power the Bombardier CSeries and Airbus' A320neo.

Q3. Contracts have increased by US $50 million since the Summer 2014 Report. Will contracts continue to increase?

The growth of contracts reported by the prime contractors depends on several factors, including the best value competitive nature of the opportunities and the JSF Program production, which is expected to remain constant in the short-term.

Q4. What are the potential long-term benefits for companies in Canada?

Given Canada's early involvement in the Program, companies in Canada are directly involved in the global supply chain of the F-35 aircraft. If Canada decides to purchase the F-35, companies that currently have contracts will have the opportunity to increase their level of participation as the Program moves into a higher rate of production.

In addition, there are other opportunities identified in the industrial participation plans for which companies in Canada will have the opportunity to compete. Taken together, these opportunities plus current contracts could total up to US $10.808 billion. It should be noted that there are significant opportunities in areas such as sustainment, maintenance, repair, training and simulation that have yet to be identified.

Q5. Is the work guaranteed? Are prime contractors obligated to put work in Canada?

There are no guarantees since companies are awarded contracts on the basis of 'best value', and that these are contingent on the acquisition of the F-35.

Seems like those facts as stated are pretty clear.

Current contacts with Canadian industry won't be cancelled, but exercising of options and entering into new contracts is very much dependant on Canada's participation.


:2c: (with references...)

G2G

 

[Altair]

Are you certain you "quoted" Lockheed-Martin correctly?  The information you note above is incorrect.

It would be appropriate to refer to facts, and in this case, those provided by the Government of Canada specifically regarding the agreement between the GoC and prime-contractors Lockheed-Martin and Pratt & Whitney, to wit:


Public Works and Government Services Canada - National Fighter Procurement Secretariat: FAQs

Seems like those facts as stated are pretty clear.

Current contacts with Canadian industry won't be cancelled, but exercising of options and entering into new contracts is very much dependant on Canada's participation.


:2c: (with references...)

G2G

Agreed, current contracts would continue, future ones would not be. Same page here.

But would those future contracts not be offset by whatever plane Canada would end up buying? Dassault has said that they would go as far as to build the planes* in Canada, and I think SAAB has said so as well.

Now I have no idea which plane would win a open completion, but I'm sure industrial benefits to Canada would play a part in deciding which aircraft would be purchased.

* http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/f-35-s-french-rival-pitches-canadianized-fighter-jet-1.2577234

 

[Edward Campbell]

Some Canadian actors (you know they're actors 'cause the video tells you they are) explain how you can "piss of the Conservatives" in this NDP ad.

 

[McG]

F-35 opens the doors to future contracts where Canada is a supplier to the world.  Other aircraft would only open doors to future contracts where Canada is a supplier to itself.  One of these options is more potential value.

 

[Altair]

F-35 opens the doors to future contracts where Canada is a supplier to the world.  Other aircraft would only open doors to future contracts where Canada is a supplier to itself.  One of these options is more potential value.

Fair enough.

So it wouldn't be a total loss to get another jet, but not as benificial as the F35.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Vote efficiency is illustrated by Éric Grenier of ThreeHundredEight.com in his work for the CBC; he provided Minimum, Low, Average, High and Maximum seat totals for the parties, based on his wide survey of polls, and offers these numbers:

                                  Seat Projection
                            Min  Low  Avg  Hi  Max
Conservatives:    94  106    122  151  198
Liberals:                47    90    118  132  143
NDP:                      59    80      96  109  129

According to M Grenier the CPC are the only party with even a remote hope of forming a majority, and although the Liberals are, generally, leading in the polls, it appears to me that the CPC vote distribution is much more efficient and that is why he, and Prof Paul Fairie at the Globe and Mail predict a CPC victory on election night.


Edited: to change Globe and Mail to CBC ~ thanks Altair

 

[Edward Campbell]

Paul Dewar posted this ad, aimed at the university students here in Ottawa Centre; it's a good, positive ad.

 

[Altair]

Fixed.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Some Canadian actors (you know they're actors 'cause the video tells you they are) explain how you can "piss of the Conservatives" in this NDP ad.

Pretty soon Justin Bieber will have all his Bielibers shilling for Angry Tom. With about the same effect. People that listen to actors, to decide how to vote, are sad.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Do you mean his work for the CBC?

Fixed it, thanks for the heads up.

 

[Remius]

Someone updated the ABC veterans thread.

Along the same line as ABC, Danny Williams offers his opinion on the PM. 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/danny-williams-stephen-harper-election-1.3256756

 

[Edward Campbell]

According to this article, which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the National Post, Ontario Premier Wynne is back on the campaign train for M Trudeau:

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/kathleen-wynne-urges-voters-to-elect-justin-trudeaus-liberals

‘You are darn right I am going to fight back’: Kathleen Wynne urges voters to elect Justin Trudeau’s Liberals

The Canadian Press | October 5, 2015

TORONTO — Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne is again lashing out at the federal Conservatives saying they are out of ideas and out of touch.

In a lengthy speech to the Empire Club in Toronto, Wynne complained about a lack of national leadership on a host of issues ranging from climate change and infrastructure funding to Syrian refugees and pensions.

Without mentioning Prime Minister Stephen Harper by name, Wynne told the business audience that government “should not seek refuge in fear” but must speak in an optimistic voice.

She said Canadians deserve a government that is focused not simply on winning an election, but on using its mandate to make a positive impact in people’s lives, and urged voters to elect Justin Trudeau’s Liberals on Oct. 19.

Ontario Liberal leader Kathleen Wynne and federal Liberal leader Justin Trudeau during a campaign stop in Ottawa in the 2014
provincial election. She plans to return the favour during the federal election campaign.            Fred Chartrand/ The Canadian Press

The Liberal premier has clashed repeatedly with Harper during the campaign over a new Ontario Retirement Pension Plan that the prime minister has strongly opposed, saying it will kill jobs.

Wynne insisted she would not be cowed by Harper’s claim that he would do all he could to block federal government co-operation with the Ontario pension scheme.

“When a prime minister declares he is ’delighted’ to thwart the will of a duly elected government with a mandate to improve retirement security, just as an example, well you are darn right I am going to fight back,” she said.

Wynne also said she was increasingly frustrated with federal Conservative candidates, including Harper, who call the provincial pension plan a payroll tax.

“I find myself astonished listening to some of the voices on the federal campaign trail,” said Wynne. “Only the truly shortsighted could look at a pension contribution and describe it as a tax.”

I'll repeat my contention that Premier Wynne is most popular where M Trudeau needs the least help, and where he needs the most help she is the least popular.