Election 2011

[Journeyman]

... it puts a stake through the cold, dead heart of Trudeaupia, never for it to rise again

If a week is a long time in politics, "never" shouldn't even be considered.

 

[GAP]

Wasn't there a right-wing party being formed in Quebec? If they is any dissatisfaction with Jacko, may be we will see people drifting over to the right?

ADQ lead by Mario Dumont....

 

[Bin-Rat]

It was around 14 million, or roughly 61%.

As of January 1, 2011, Canada's population was estimated at 34,278,400, an increase of 40,400 (+0.1%) from October 1, 2010
as per http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/110324/dq110324b-eng.htm

Now I am no math professor but 14 Mill out of 34 mill is NOT 60% cause 17 mill would be 50% But I dunno how they are doing there math

 

[MJP]

As of January 1, 2011, Canada's population was estimated at 34,278,400, an increase of 40,400 (+0.1%) from October 1, 2010
as per http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/110324/dq110324b-eng.htm

Now I am no math professor but 14 Mill out of 34 mill is NOT 60% cause 17 mill would be 50% But I dunno how they are doing there math

The 34 million includes all ages, some of whom are ineligible to vote as they have not reached the age of majority.

 

[kratz]

News reports last night mentioned there were 24 million eleigable voters.

So 14 million votes for 61% does make more sense.

 

[aesop081]

Now I am no math professor but 14 Mill out of 34 mill is NOT 60% cause 17 mill would be 50% But I dunno how they are doing there math

Try reading here instead :

http://enr.elections.ca/National_e.aspx

Voter turnout: 14,720,580 of 23,971,740 registered electors (61.4%)

Pretty simple really.............

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

The next fun exercise is going to be finding out what the federal retirement payouts for all those defeated liberals Bloquistes is going to be.....

There, fixed that for you

 

[Kirkhill]

I followed ThreeHundredEight.com closely, posting their projections on an almost daily basis.

Here are graphs of their aggregations of polls - which are only as inaccurate as the original polls themselves, and the seat projections based on those aggregations.

The lessons:

1. Most polls misjudged the strengths of the parties but by, in aggregation, 3.5% (low) for the Tories. 3.3% (low) for the NDP  and 3.9& (high) for the Liberals; and

2. The ThreeHundredEight.com seat projection model was too conservative. It failed to predict the vote splitting which, I am pretty certain, greatly benefited the Conservatives.

On the graphs Day 1 is 23 Mar 11, a few days before the election campaign, proper, began, and Day 42 is the final result.

Under the head of ...... no never mind.  I won't say I told you so.  ;D

http://forums.army.ca/forums/threads/97490/post-1039859.html#msg1039859

I wouldn't sweat the 308 shift.  At the eleventh hour he revises his model...... At which point he needs to show both models: the old one carried forward withouth change and the new one reworked backwards to demonstrate the trend.  Otherwise he has just produced a "hide the decline" shift where a different reference is substituted at the end.

The problem is compounded by the inclusion of the Ekos poll which seems to be outside the norms detected by other pollsters.

Emphasising an outlier and adjusting your model does not good statistics make.

308 made a classic mistake - they panicked and revised their model.  They would have been better to stick with plan A  and remember a favourite adage of mine "I thought I was wrong once, but I was wrong."

 

[Kirkhill]

It is not just the Canadian electorate that is so polarized; we have seen very similar things in America, Australia and Britain. We have all imported aspects of the US culture wars, which go back to the mid 1960s. It is silly to blame Stephen Harper for Johnson vs. Goldwater, but Simpson doesn't much like Harper, so ...

As usual ERC - mostly in agreement. 

Dissent on the above quote.  As you have come to understand by now I personally feel that the "Culture Wars" are of MUCH longer standing that Johnson-Goldwater and they embrace the Huguenot-Covenanters on one side and the Authoritarians (Both leaders and followers) on the other.

 

[OldSolduer]

I wonder how much the NDP will call for Proportional Representation now that it would mean they need to give a few of their seats up to the Liberals?

Elizabeth May was whining about it too.

 

[HavokFour]

I keep hearing that 60% of voters voted against the Conservatives, when the results clearly show that they voted against the Bloc and Liberals.

Am I crazy?

 

[Container]

Its that stupid "only 40% of Canadians voted so 60% Hate HARPER!" ridiculousness.

 

[wannabe SF member]

ADQ lead by Mario Dumont....

I believe he is talking about that new libertarian network that was formed by Bernier, the ADQ is a dead force after the shellacking they received during the last provincial elections.

Here's a link to Bernier's blog: http://www.maximebernier.com/en/2010/10/reseau-liberte-quebec-redefinir-le-nationalisme/.

Mind you, I find it hard to see a right wing surge in Quebec any time soon, sad to say but my home-province feels really entitled to it's entitlements, living in the broken and leaking pipe that is their social-democrat dream. Quebec is a province that has so far been unable to get over the fact that their repudiation of conservative policies during the quiet revolution have so far worked against them. The current generation can still hold on to the excuse that this can all be solved by separation but for how long will that last?

 

[aesop081]

I keep hearing that 60% of voters voted against the Conservatives, when the results clearly show that they voted against the Bloc and Liberals.

Am I crazy?

Look here :

http://enr.elections.ca/National_e.aspx

Party Party standing %  Popular vote % 



Conservative 167 54.2  5,832,401 39.6 

 

[ModlrMike]

Its that stupid "only 40% of Canadians voted so 60% Hate HARPER!" ridiculousness.

They were strangely quiet when Chretien achieved the same end.

 

[larry Strong]

Are any of the remaining Liberals "blue' enough to cross the floor?

 

[kratz]

After the losses last night I suspect there are large numbe of blue Liberals.  ;D

 

[Edward Campbell]

I keep hearing that 60% of voters voted against the Conservatives, when the results clearly show that they voted against the Bloc and Liberals.

Am I crazy?

This is faulty logic. 60% of Canadians voted for the BQ, Greens, Liberals, NDP and a few others, but they were never given an option to vote against anyone or anything. We do not have an electoral system that allows you (or me) to vote against the prime minister or Joe Blow - only for the candidate you prefer in your riding. Those, like Ms. Elizabeth May, who are looking to deny Prime Minister Harper's legitimacy will trot out the "60% voted against" argument but it is, at best, dishonest and it betrays an abysmal ignorance of the Constitution. Anyone who actually believes that "60% of Canadians voted against the Conservatives' is, clearly, way too stupid to vote, much less to be an MP.

 

[Container]

They were strangely quiet when Chretien achieved the same end.

They seem quiet about the fact that we inched up the amount of Canadians voting this time round to just over 61% as well.....

The Chicken Little crying and sour grapes are at a fever pitch.

You know the worst part was at the very beginning when Ignatieff first started talking I found him super reasonable- I had considered him. But once he was fully "in the party" he started making less and less moderate statements. The liberals would be better off, in my opinion, appealing to the moderates, like myself, rather than the nonvoting university kids.

They're too busy on the lead up to the election interupting conservative events to show up on election day and vote. "Only my democracy or no democracy at all!"

 

[observor 69]

Ref large number of inexperienced elected members of NDP:

"Welcome to opposition class. Follow these steps. 1) Show up in question period. 2) Shout a lot. 3) Repeat."