Election 2011

[Infanteer]

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20110502/vote-split-110502/20110503?s_name=election2011

The first on what will be many stories about the vote split.  Once all the dust is settled, I shall be interested how many NDP wins against Con/Lib splits and how many Con wins against NDP/Lib splits occured.

One would think that movement to merge the NDP/Lib would make quite an impact in the split ridings in the next election, which thankfully won't be for a while.

NDP win?  Sure; at face value.  But with a dodgy caucus and a party with a majority of seats in Quebec, Layton has a lot of work to do to convince Canada that he isn't a left-wing version of Preston Manning.

 

[Kirkhill]

My, was yon no an exciting evening.  I'll have great pleasure in joining the rest of you in a dram.

Slainte mha Canada.  iper:

 

[ModlrMike]

The Conservatives now clearly occupy the center. The NDP will move even further left with the combination of rookie MPs and the need to satisfy Quebec. I think the next election will be even more interesting than this one.

 

[Dennis Ruhl]

Cabinet? - everyone from Quebec.  They have way too many from Alberta and need to massage Quebec a bit.  Mind you in the next election there will be at least 30, maybe 40, new seats in Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia.

 

[Kirkhill]

Infanteer:

I know it is a constitutional issue - but Jack seems willing to open that can - but a great way to put the cat among the pigeons and flush out the REAL NDP would be to put THE RIGHT TO PERSONAL PROPERTY on the table.......

In about 2 years I would say.

 

[SteveB]

First Bin Laden and now this, what a week and it's only Monday!

 

[Infanteer]

I know it is a constitutional issue - but Jack seems willing to open that can - but a great way to put the cat among the pigeons and flush out the REAL NDP would be to put THE RIGHT TO PERSONAL PROPERTY on the table.......

Absolutely; considering it is something most Canadians hold dear, I'd see that as a pretty cunning way to play politics.  If PM Harper wants to get some constitutional rejigging done WRT the Senate, he should wrap it up in some sort of property amendment and sell it on that.

 

[Good2Golf]

Predictions for cabinet?  Cannon is out, will Alexander be dropped into Foreign Affairs, here the staff still know him? 

More than a few ADMs and DGs in DFAIT who are probably fearing this possibility, especially given the manner in which they failed to appreciate the skill and dedication with which Mr. Alexander carried out his duties of Head of Mission in Afghanistan.

 

[Infanteer]

Does the bureaucracy fear the upcoming government?

 

[a_majoor]

The destruction of the National Socialist BQ is probably the best of all possible results. Canadian politics have been frozen since the 1990s; demographic and economic power has been flowing west but the political establishment hasn't moved to match. Now things are free to move and the results will not be pretty for Quebec, or Toronto for that matter.

Mr Ignatieff led his party into an election with no other goal than to create a Liberal-NDP coalition, and got owned instead. Should the coroner report the death of the LPC to be suicide or death by misadventure?

Regardless of the number of seas the NDP received, they are in no way ready to assume their role as opposition. The "traffic pylons" placed in all those ridings to get the $2.00/vote subsidy will be mostly unsuitable as MPs, much less shadow cabinet ministers and there will be no mentoring such as a coalition would have offered.

The real danger is the CPC becomes arrogent and out of touch,.

 

[Dissident]

The real danger is the CPC becomes arrogent and out of touch,.

Unnavoidable if they stay in power for any lenght of time, just like the Liberals just did with JC. Which is why I have been hoping for a destruction (done) and rebirth (to be seen) of the Libreal party truer to the liberal ideal.

 

[Kalatzi]

I dont kno w if this will resonate with anyone

a Brother  and Family live in POS IGnatitefffs riiding

What I find unusual is that when I voted I had to produce the tag - Plus visual ID Plus Proof of address from a bill.

That I Just happened to have - not knowing it wsa a requirement?

PLUS - verbally state my address before getting a ballot

So Far so Good -  everyone's equall right?

After voting I hear, via radio  that that soon to be tarred and feathered head of the Libs voted in Etobicoke

Based on input from family members I know that he lives in anaother riding - Tony Yorkville.

So Say's I perhaps I may hav emade a mistake, so lets cut tis furball/ er person some slack

So I phone elections canada and ask abot residency requirements

Produce proof of Citizenship and resideny is the short reply.

Prove that you've moved and can validate and its all  good

So, Say6s I He doesnt live in the riding, despite a promise to .....

Oh says The FRrontline Canada Elections worker - smething to the effect - 'While in his case" ... :

in ralated news I live in one of the most hoitly contested ridings - Parkdale high park

The incumbent Liberal MP _ Kennedy NEVER Posted on the signage at his office in the riding that He was a liberal.

The only reason that I post the last is that a couple of people that I mentionned this too, after the apocalypse couldn't beleive that the libs would let this happen.

Addenda - Prior to the writ that is.

Kudos to all

 

[HavokFour]

I dont kno w if this will resonate with anyone

a Brother  and Family live in POS IGnatitefffs riiding

What I find unusual is that when I voted I had to produce the tag - Plus visual ID Plus Proof of address from a bill.

That I Just happened to have - not knowing it wsa a requirement?

PLUS - verbally state my address before getting a ballot

So Far so Good -  everyone's equall right?

After voting I hear, via radio  that that soon to be tarred and feathered head of the Libs voted in Etobicoke

Based on input from family members I know that he lives in anaother riding - Tony Yorkville.

So Say's I perhaps I may hav emade a mistake, so lets cut tis furball/ er person some slack

So I phone elections canada and ask abot residency requirements

Produce proof of Citizenship and resideny is the short reply.

Prove that you've moved and can validate and its all  good

So, Say6s I He doesnt live in the riding, despite a promise to .....

Oh says The FRrontline Canada Elections worker - smething to the effect - 'While in his case" ... :

in ralated news I live in one of the most hoitly contested ridings - Parkdale high park

The incumbent Liberal MP _ Kennedy NEVER Posted on the signage at his office in the riding that He was a liberal.

The only reason that I post the last is that a couple of people that I mentionned this too, after the apocalypse couldn't beleive that the libs would let this happen.

Addenda - Prior to the writ that is.

Kudos to all

I can't make heads or tails of what you just wrote. Do a bit of celebrating tonight?

I'm sorry, but this entire post...  :rofl:

 

[Edward Campbell]

I kind of wish the Conservatives won downtown Ottawa. Darn Ottawa U.

Given the size of Paul Dewar's plurality (26,900+ votes to a combined total of 25,000+/- for all his opponents) I doubt Ottawa U had much to do with it. Dewar is a good, solid constituency MP who 'tends' the riding well between elections. What was interesting was Conservative Dominic Konstantinakos' showing which surprised a lot of people. Just days before the election the local media were suggesting that the Liberal, Bradley might give Dewar a run for his money; Bradley finished third, behind Konstantinakos.

 

[Halifax Tar]

I truly think we have a great set up now. A strong defence minded Con majority with a healthy social and family sided NDP opposition to help with checks and balances. Then we have sent the liberals back to sort out their business. While Que came through in spades, all but annihilating the BQ and reducing them to bellow official party status!

I see a HoC that is set up nicely, to me, and I expect big things in the next four years!

My only question is how was voter turnout? Have any numbers been released on how many Canadians actually voted?

 

[Swingline1984]

My only question is how was voter turnout? Have any numbers been released on how many Canadians actually voted?

It was around 14 million, or roughly 61%.

 

[GAP]

I can forsee the continued strong drive to appease Quebec....all we did was change the Bloc for the NDP, and Jack is not shy about asking for a handout.

One nice thing I will be looking for in the next budget is the elimination of the $2.00/vote subsidy.....gone, gone, gone....

 

[Old Sweat]

I had worked in the CPC campaign office in North Grenville, which is part of the riding of Leeds-Grenville. Last night I stayed in the office with my laptop showing Sun TV and a radio tuned to CFRA. The latter came later, after Sun TV reported about 2140 that local stations could carry local results. It was then that the scope of what was happening became apparent.

As various scrutineers reported in with poll results, it became apparent both from their figures and from Sun TV that something was happening that none of us, and certainly not the pundits and pollsters had sensed. In our area, our MP who had won in 2008 with about 55% of the vote was waaaay up. I suspect he took between two thirds and three quarters of the vote. I finally closed the shop and went home at 0015, and the last person I saw was the reporter from the local paper who had just returned from our candidate's headquarters in Brockville. He was heading off to file his story but we agreed to meet this morning to give him a local angle. What I am going to say is along the lines that we can now all put our party labels away for four years and get on with our lives.

Back to the office at 1000 to staret packing it up.

I thought Sun News did a credible job. There were still some rough edges, but the coverage was decent and timely.

 

[OldSolduer]

I can forsee the continued strong drive to appease Quebec....all we did was change the Bloc for the NDP, and Jack is not shy about asking for a handout.

One nice thing I will be looking for in the next budget is the elimination of the $2.00/vote subsidy.....gone, gone, gone....

I agree. The taxpayer should not be funding political parties with tax dollars!!

Now....how will the Conservative government treat the CF and VAC??

 

[Edward Campbell]

I followed ThreeHundredEight.com closely, posting their projections on an almost daily basis.

Here are graphs of their aggregations of polls - which are only as inaccurate as the original polls themselves, and the seat projections based on those aggregations.

The lessons:

1. Most polls misjudged the strengths of the parties but by, in aggregation, 3.5% (low) for the Tories. 3.3% (low) for the NDP  and 3.9& (high) for the Liberals; and

2. The ThreeHundredEight.com seat projection model was too conservative. It failed to predict the vote splitting which, I am pretty certain, greatly benefited the Conservatives.

On the graphs Day 1 is 23 Mar 11, a few days before the election campaign, proper, began, and Day 42 is the final result.