Divided, Harper stands: how the left-wing split could return the Conservatives to power.
By Tobi Cohen, Postmedia News
April 18, 2011
As NDP support continues to rise in the polls, will the left-wing vote splitting phenomenon be a serious game changer and prove to be a boon for the Tories in their quest for a majority?
While it's not unusual for the New Democrats to experience a surge during a campaign — Jack Layton often outperforms his competitors in the English-language debate, resulting in a spike — experts say it usually peters out come election day.
But there is a sense NDP voters, who often switch to the Liberals at the last minute, aren't going to do that this time.
Despite Michael Ignatieff's efforts to paint a vote for the NDP as a vote for Stephen Harper — something pollster Darrell Bricker said has been a Liberal strategy since the 2004 — things are different this election.
"It only works if the public actually perceives the Liberals as having a potential to stop the Tories," the Ipsos Reid president said in an interview.
"I don't know that that's actually correct this time."
He suggested the centrist party "abandoned" its right-wing supporters by "tacking left" in a bid to woo NDP votes, and since that's not working, the Liberals have been left on "a very narrow piece of ground to stand on."
Yet, with Liberal support stagnating and popular support for the NDP unlikely to translate into a significant number of additional seats, it seems Ignatieff's mantra could nonetheless, ring true.
"For the Tories to do well, the NDP has to do well," Bricker said.
"The Liberals and the NDP are basically fishing from the same pond. So, if the NDP is getting a greater share of that pond, it makes it more difficult for the Liberals to win seats.
"It also means the progressive vote splits and the Conservative vote, which is pretty solid, can come up the middle."
But Layton insists he's not the left's Preston Manning, poised to divide the vote and give Harper a seemingly endless reign.
In an interview with the CBC's Peter Mansbridge Monday night, Layton dismissed suggestions that he's no different from Manning, whose Reform Party divided the conservative vote and allowed former prime minister Jean Chretien's and his Liberal party to rule Parliament Hill for more than a decade.
"Our party is 50 years old. We have been there working for working families, bringing Medicare to Canada, bringing the Canada Pension Plan to Canada, often in minority government situations," he said.
"We have worked with other parties to get results. That was not what the Reform party was all about . . . and so we're a very different kind of animal."
The very idea that an NDP vote is a vote for the Tories frustrates New Democrats to no end.
"By now, you have heard some leaders say that you don't have a choice. That it always has to be same," Layton has repeated in his stump speeches.
"You and I know that's not true."
Campaign spokeswoman Kathleen Monk added Canadians do have a choice and that in many ridings, it's a race between the Conservatives and New Democrats as "more and more people are turning to Jack Layton as a positive alternative to Stephen Harper."
In Quebec, where the results of two recent polls put the NDP at the head of the pack among federalist parties with 26 per cent support, even Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe was showing signs of concern.
On Monday, he urged Quebecers not to be fooled by the fact that Layton — who was campaigning in Quebec City — happens to be a "nice guy."
"Some people are saying that when Layton gains, Harper laughs," Duceppe said during a rare moment in which he commented on the latest polls.
"If we want to stop the Harper majority, the only possibility is voting for the Bloc."
Concordia University political science professor Bruce Hicks agreed vote-splitting on the left will most certainly benefit the Tories outside Quebec where NDP support comes at the expense of the Liberal party.
He suggested NDP attack ads against the Liberals, only serve to reinforce that.
But he's less sure about who will benefit from the NDP surge in Quebec where the party has just one seat — it's first ever in a general election.
It's a province "very much split by region," he said, noting the Quebec City area tends to be right of centre while rural Quebec tends to vote Bloc. Meanwhile, the Island of Montreal, with its large anglophone population, tends to sway Liberal.
"Where it seems at this stage is that the New Democrats are simply taking a little bit from everywhere as opposed to surging in a particular area," he said.
He suggested the New Democrats are simply not strong enough to replace the Liberals as Canada's second party and that the only way for the left to defeat the Conservatives would be through some sort of power-sharing arrangement.
With files from Peggy Curran
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