Election 2011

[Good2Golf]

Maybe he's trying to bridge the gap  :

That's okay, 57...I got it!  Good one... ;D

 

[57Chevy]

Noo, I think I'm going to have to stick with bribes.  If he was trying to bridge any gaps he should be doing so on issues that matter to Canada and all Canadians.... not those in a particular riding or two.

"He added that the bridge was not just one for Montreal or its south shore but for all of Canada."

Just saying
;D

 

[midget-boyd91]

Offer a bridge for Newfoundland to mainland Canada.... They're still pissed off that those Spud heads got their own bridge and they didn't get anything...

 

[GAP]

Just watching the CBC National....boy, is the CBC trying to do a hatchet job on Harper.....they interview anyone with nothing good to say about the conservatives, voting for one of the other parties, highlight liberal and NDP election promises.......and then, when they do turn to the Conservatives, it's all about a reiteration of all the scandals they are trying to tag them with.......nope.....no bias there...... :

 

[a_majoor]

Maybe we really need the Bridge Party to run in the next election? 

 

[Brad Sallows]

For those who disfavour floor crossing and don't want another election, there's another possibility if the CPC is 3-4 seats short and a confidence vote is taken: 3-4 opposition members break with their parties and sit as independents (more likely if they are centre/centre-right Liberals and the Liberals and NDP start talking).  They should be able to cut some decent deals for their ridings.  An "independent caucus" could reasonably be large enough to be a fourth (and relatively inexpensive in lump sums) block of votes the government can bargain for in order to obtain legislative majorities.

 

[ModlrMike]

For those who disfavour floor crossing and don't want another election, there's another possibility if the CPC is 3-4 seats short and a confidence vote is taken: 3-4 opposition members break with their parties and sit as independents (more likely if they are centre/centre-right Liberals and the Liberals and NDP start talking).  They should be able to cut some decent deals for their ridings.  An "independent caucus" could reasonably be large enough to be a fourth (and relatively inexpensive in lump sums) block of votes the government can bargain for in order to obtain legislative majorities.

At the risk of making another unfortunate Count reference, a move like that would just about nail Mr Ignatieff's political coffin closed.

 

[Dennis Ruhl]

Just watching the CBC National....boy, is the CBC trying to do a hatchet job on Harper.....they interview anyone with nothing good to say about the conservatives, voting for one of the other parties, highlight liberal and NDP election promises.......and then, when they do turn to the Conservatives, it's all about a reiteration of all the scandals they are trying to tag them with.......nope.....no bias there...... :

My whole life, I've watched slick lefties and buffoon right wingers to the exclusion of eloquent right wingers and buffoon lefties.  I'm sure all CBC guests are selected to prove their agenda.  I do wish the people at CBC an early congratulation on their upcoming retirement.  I suspect there may be one more item added to the upcoming budget to be introduced by a majority Conservative government.

 

[Good2Golf]

The CBC could take a lesson from the state-funded BBC, which is arguably one of the most objective and professional news-reporting networks in the world.

 

[57Chevy]

reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act

Postmedia News April 18, 2011 8:37 AM
Military personnel cast first ballots of the election

http://www.canada.com/news/Military+personnel+cast+first+ballots+election/4633398/story.html#ixzz1JsapIaZV

 

[Edward Campbell]

The Conservative slide continues according to this report, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from threeHundredEight.com:

http://www.threehundredeight.blogspot.com/

CANADIAN POLITICS AND ELECTORAL PROJECTIONS

April 18, 2011 Projection - Conservative Minority Government

MONDAY, APRIL 18, 2011
Liberals and NDP make big gains

A flurry of polls were released this morning (Nanos, Angus-Reid, and Léger Marketing). And with the incorporation of all of the polls that were released over the weekend (EKOS, Nanos, Forum), there's a lot of change in today's projection - and it isn't good news for Stephen Harper. 

Since Friday, the Conservatives have dropped 0.3 points to 38.7% and three seats to 149, the lowest they've stood in this campaign so far. The Liberals have dropped 0.2 points to 28%, but because of gains in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada the party is up five seats to 78. That's a gain of one seat since the government fell.

The New Democrats were buoyed today by some great polls for them from online pollsters Léger and Angus-Reid, and they are up 0.8 points in the projection to 17.6%. Long-time readers will know that is a huge update-to-update change at the national level. They are also up one seat to 34.

I was not able to get my hands on the full details of the Léger poll for this update, and media reports by the QMI Agency were incomplete. Only the national and Quebec numbers were added to the projection. Léger is usually pretty quick with updating their site, so hopefully I will be able to add the other regional numbers to the projection tomorrow.

The Bloc Québécois is down 0.3 points nationally to only 8.6%, and they are down three seats to 47. The Greens are down 0.2 points to 5.8%.

The Conservatives have remained relatively stable west of Quebec, dropping 0.2 points in Ontario but gaining 0.1 points in British Columbia and the Prairies and 0.2 points in Alberta.

However, they are down 0.4 points to 20.3% in Quebec, and are down a big 1.2 points in Atlantic Canada.

The Liberals are up marginally there and in Ontario, but dropped a full point in the Prairies. The bright spot for them is their closing of the gap in Ontario by 0.3 points and their holding steady in Quebec while the Bloc dropped a point.

The New Democrats, however, are up everywhere. British Columbia saw only a modest gain, but the party jumped 0.4 points in Ontario, 0.6 points in the Prairies, 0.7 points in Atlantic Canada, 0.8 points in Alberta, and an amazing 1.7 points in Quebec. They now stand at 18% in the province, within reach of the Liberals and Conservatives.

And that is a problem for the Bloc, which has dropped another point to only 35.9% support.

There have been quite a few seat changes since Friday morning.

In Ontario, the Liberals have retaken Brampton - Springdale from the Conservatives. Ruby Dhalla, the incumbent Liberal candidate, is again the favourite.

In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals have moved ahead in the projection in Random - Burin - St. George's, a riding in Newfoundland & Labrador. Judy Foote is the Liberal incumbent there. And in Prince Edward Island, Guy Gallant is now favoured over Gail Shea in the riding of Egmont. That's another Liberal pick-up from the Tories.

The Liberals have taken Ahuntsic (Noushig Eloyan) and Brossard - La Prairie (Alexandra Mendes) from the Bloc Québécois in and around Montreal. The New Democrats have also taken Gatineau from the Bloc. Françoise Boivin, the NDP candidate, is the favourite here.

That makes for a lot of change, and it appears it could continue. The NDP is riding high in Quebec and though they are still a little ways away from taking a third seat, it is certainly a good possibility that they will get to that point. But the kinds of support we saw in today's polls will need to hold firm.

The Conservatives are looking flat, but they are still comfortably ahead. But their prospects for a majority seem to be slipping away.

It is worth looking at a few of the changes:

1. Brampton-Springdale has moved from Conservative to Liberal with poll results showing 41.7 and 41.8 respectively;
2. Random - Burin - St. George's has moved from Conservative to Liberal with poll results showing 42.2 and 43.7 respectively;
3. Egmont has moved from Conservative to Liberal with poll results showing 44.3 and 44.8 respectively;
4. Ahuntsic has moved from BQ to Liberal with poll results showing 36.6 and 37.3 respectively;
5. Brossard - La Prairie has moved from BQ to Liberal with poll results showing 30.0 and 30.5 respectively; and
6. Gatineau has moved from BQ to NDP with poll results showing 28.6 and 31.1 respectively, the only change with a spread of greater than 1.5% in the local polls.

Expect more changes during the last two weeks of the campaign.

 

[GAP]

As usual, a lot is going to depend on which party can get it's voters out to vote on election day....in 2008, Liberal supports stayed away in droves...

 

[dapaterson]

The erosion of BQ support may turn out to be the story of this campaign; if it happens to the extent predicted (and I suspect the slide is going to worsen) and is sustained in future elections we may be witnessing the end of the Bloc.

The other interesting aspect to this is the NDP's steady inroads into Quebec.

 

[midget-boyd91]

The erosion of BQ support may turn out to be the story of this campaign; if it happens to the extent predicted (and I suspect the slide is going to worsen) and is sustained in future elections we may be witnessing the end of the Bloc.

The other interesting aspect to this is the NDP's steady inroads into Quebec.

And if we see the end of the bloc or even a large drop in support, I can see Gilles Duceppe (once again) stepping down as leader of the Bloc with the intention of rallying support to strengthen a newly revived separatist movement..

 

[kratz]

It's a sad reality, but it has been almost 20 years. The RoC is almost due for another constitution crisis. A political watcher could almost set their clock by it.  :worms:

 

[Old Sweat]

The erosion of BQ support may turn out to be the story of this campaign; if it happens to the extent predicted (and I suspect the slide is going to worsen) and is sustained in future elections we may be witnessing the end of the Bloc.

The other interesting aspect to this is the NDP's steady inroads into Quebec.

And that will be the first step in the absorbtion/amalgamation of the NDP and the left wing of the Liberals.

 

[Edward Campbell]

This, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail, is, I suspect, written, largely, with tongue in cheek, but it does point out the dilemma that can arise when Canadians vote:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/opinion/want-a-coalition-scenario-try-duceppe-as-pm/article1987578/

Want a coalition scenario? Try Duceppe as PM

NEIL REYNOLDS

From Monday's Globe and Mail
Published Monday, Apr. 18, 2011

Here’s another coalition scenario the four party leaders didn’t fully explore during their televised debates last week: Prime Minister Gilles Duceppe.

Actually, Mr. Duceppe acknowledged this improbable option, but only in denial – the next prime minister, he said, wouldn’t be him. Given one particular election result, though, circumstances could change. Indeed, in this instance, constitutional precedent might compel Governor-General David Johnston to ask the separatist leader to form a national government. Who’s to know Mr. Duceppe’s response?

Assume that Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper fails to win a majority of the 308 parliamentary seats but that he still holds the most seats. In this case, he would expect the Governor-General to ask him to form a new government. Mr. Harper would convene Canada’s 41st Parliament and, within days, retable the budget his government first tabled in March.

Assume that the three opposition parties combine once again, repudiate the budget and bring down the government. Mr. Harper could ask the Governor-General to dissolve this briefest of Parliaments in its very first days – but probably wouldn’t. The country wouldn’t tolerate back-to-back federal elections in a single springtime. The Governor-General would almost certainly invite the Leader of the Official Opposition to take a turn at forming a government with the support of the other opposition parties.

Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff himself apparently regards this simple sequence of events as his best shot at primus inter pares. Recall his words from the first debate: “If you get more seats than any other party, you get to try first to gain the confidence of the House.”

Try first. Translation: Mr. Harper will win more seats and must be accorded first whack. But Mr. Ignatieff, supported by the Bloc Québécois and the NDP, will vote him down. Mr. Ignatieff then gets to “try second.” But he would almost certainly require a formal coalition – something of legal force. In British parliamentary tradition, for example, the Governor-General might require the Bloc and the NDP “to accept the whip” of an Ignatieff government.

But Mr. Ignatieff must first become Leader of the Official Opposition, a position he gains only if he wins more seats on May 2 than any of the other opposition parties – more seats, to be precise, than Mr. Duceppe. This is not a prediction but a fact: Mr. Ignatieff could lose seats on May 2.

In the past six elections, the Bloc won more than 50 seats three times: 54 in 1993; 54 in 2004; and 51 in 2006. Mr. Ignatieff probably needs 60 seats to ensure that he retains his position as Leader of the Official Opposition.

Yet, the Liberals have failed twice to win 50 seats since the Second World War: in 1958, when they won 49; and in 1984, when they won 40. At dissolution, they held 77. Any significant Liberal slippage could turn the Bloc into the Official Opposition – exactly as it was from 1993 to 1997 during a Liberal majority government.

The election could produce a Bloc-friendly result in a number of ways. For example, the Bloc could win 60 seats, the Liberals 58 seats, the NDP 40 seats and the Conservatives 150 seats, five short of a majority. The result would surely provoke the greatest political crisis in this country since 1926, when the governor-general (Lord Byng) refused Liberal prime minister Mackenzie King’s request that he dissolve Parliament and call an election, insisting that Conservative leader Arthur Meighen, the leader of the Official Opposition, be invited first to form a government.

If Mr. Duceppe were the leader of the Official Opposition, the Governor-General would be obliged to turn to him as the “second try” party in the House. On what grounds could he not? Mr. Duceppe might well decline the invitation. But the prospect of accepting it would be enormously tempting – if only for the historic irony.

Mr. Ignatieff could escape his reliance on the Bloc only by first gaining, in alliance with the NDP, the absolute security of 155 seats: 42 more than the two parties held at dissolution. The contribution of the NDP to this result would determine precisely how many cabinet posts Mr. Ignatieff would need to give to NDP Leader Jack Layton.

The last sentence is a crux of the matter: If the Liberals + the NDP have 155 seats then no one, not even the most rabid Conservative, can complain about either a coalition or an understanding à la the Peterson/Rae accord in Ontario a few years ago. But if the Liberals + NDP have less than 155 seats then Gilles Duceppe has, de facto, a big say in how the Government of Canada goes about its business.

Consider this graphic from the end of last week:

The worst case for Conservatives sees:

BQ:                      50
Conservatives:  141
Liberals:              87
NDP:                    29

In that model the Liberals + NDP have 116 seats, a Liberal PM must, always, bill after bill, have active BQ support to pass anything. In that scenario Gilles Duceppe may not be the PM, he may not even be in the cabinet but he is calling the shots.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

Or Harper could do a deal with the devil and offer the Bloc the chance to form a coalition with the CPC. Probable political suicide, but better than having the Bloc calling the shots.

 

[Old Sweat]

It is interesting that nobody is raising the possibililty of one or more opposition parties using strategic flu on the part of a few of their members to allow the CPC to survive the confidence votes on the budget. This would then be followed by the House rising for a long summer recess.

 

[HavokFour]

Online polls are FAR too easy to exploit, I have never and will never trust any results that come from them.

In other news, I found this today.
http://blog.agoracom.com/2011/03/27/michael-ignatieff-political-career-death-clock/