Election 2011

[Edward Campbell]

I have mentioned before that I like to track the CARP poll because we know that the 55-74 age cohort votes in disproportionately high numbers.

Here are the latest results (it's a “rolling” poll so the number may have changed when you take a look:

Effective 2011-04-17 at 1045 Hrs

Total respondents:  2737
In the 55-77 cohort: 2196
In Ontario:              1616

Party choice:

Conservative -  1079 Votes/39.4 %
Liberal -              846 Votes/30.9 %
NDP -                  315 Votes/11.5 %
Green Party -        79 Votes/2.9 %
Bloc Quebecois -    4 Votes/0.1 %
OTHER -                13 Votes/0.5 %
UNDECIDED -      401 Votes/14.7 %
Total -              2737 Votes

Election outcome preference:

Conservative majority -                    1152 Votes/42.1 %
Conservative minority -                      146 Votes/5.3 %
Liberal majority -                                497 Votes/18.2 %
Liberal minority -                                205 Votes/7.5 %
Liberal minority supported by NDP -  542 Votes/19.8 %
OTHER -                                              103 Votes/3.8 %
DON’T KNOW -                                      92 Votes/3.4 %
Total -                                              2737 Votes

 

[Kirkhill]

Interesting CARP numbers - not widely off the electorate at large it seems to me.

Here's a question ERC:  what might the odds be of a caucus split in the Liberals?  Either an internal split (continuing to caucus together but voting independently a la Joe Lieberman) or a more open split creating a  separate caucus of Independent Liberals.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Interesting CARP numbers - not widely off the electorate at large it seems to me.

Here's a question ERC:  what might the odds be of a caucus split in the Liberals?  Either an internal split (continuing to caucus together but voting independently a la Joe Lieberman) or a more open split creating a  separate caucus of Independent Liberals.

I honestly don't know, Kirkhill. I used to have a pretty useful Liberal insider contact but she moved away so I am bereft of political gossip from that part of the spectrum, but I still have a few friends acquaintances contacts with a few people in the Conservative Party who still speak to me, so, re:

Has there been any indications that this may happen?

... rumour has it that PM Harper was deeply hurt by Brison's defection and he has taken/is taking pains to silence, even marginalize the 'religious right" fringe which does exist in the Conservative party so that Brison can return.

 

[Edward Campbell]

More, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from ThreeHundredEight.com, about the "ceilings" after three weeks:

More, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from ThreeHundredEight.com, related to five just released polls:

SATURDAY, MARCH 26, 2011
Three polls, best Liberal and Tory outcomes

There has been a flurry of polls over the last two days, with new releases by EKOS, Léger Marketing, Angus-Reid, CROP, and Probe Research. I will cover them all in detail in Monday's poll summary, but for now I'd like to look at the best seat outcomes the Liberals and Conservatives could draw from the results of the three national polls.

Similar to my monthly best and worst case scenarios, this exercise takes the best regional results for each party in each of these three polls, and mashes them together. Doing so results in the Conservatives taking in about 42% of the vote in their best case scenario, while the Liberals take about 29% in theirs.

Clearly, these three polls were not particularly good for the Liberals when they cannot top 30% in a best-case-scenario. I haven't plugged the numbers into the projection model yet, but we can probably expect them to be down on Monday morning.

In any case, when we put the best results of these two parties together, we get the following seat projections:

The legend may be a bit confusing at first sight:
The top graph is the "best" for the Conservatives (160 seats vs. only 61 for the Liberals) and
the lower is best for the Liberals (they get 87 seats and the Tories only get 141).
The colours remain the same Blue for Conservatives, Light blue = BQ, Red = Liberals and Orange = NDP.

It becomes quickly apparent that none of these three polls, even when we take the best results from each of them, are as good for the Tories as this week's individual Ipsos Reid poll. Nevertheless, the Conservatives still have the potential to win 160 seats, with 70 of them coming in the four western provinces, 61 in Ontario, 11 in Quebec, and 17 in Atlantic Canada.

This actually serves to caution the Conservatives a little. This is a best-case-scenario result, and included a 15-point lead for the party in Ontario and a 16-point lead in Atlantic Canada. And yet they are only five seats over the majority-mark, and both the Bloc and NDP remain strong.

When we look at the Liberals, they do not fare nearly as well. With all of the best regional results of these three polls, the Liberals still only win 87 seats (16 in the West, 37 in Ontario, 14 in Quebec, and 19 in Atlantic Canada). While that is a gain of 10 over their standing at dissolution, it would change very little. 

But none of these polls were very good for the Liberals. This scenario has the party with a tiny lead in Atlantic Canada, tied with the NDP in Quebec, and trailing the Conservatives in Ontario. It includes the unlikely mark of 32% in Alberta, better than either their results in British Columbia or the Prairies.

Obviously, the Liberals are gunning for a government in this election. But it will be considered an especially catastrophic failure if the Conservatives win a majority for themselves. At this point, it appears that the Liberals do have it in their power to prevent that from happening, which is as much of a silver lining as the last days of pre-campaign polling will allow.

I doubt this "good news” for the Conservatives can hold but it makes kicking the campaign off very, very difficult for the Liberals; it may make them desperate to do something big, soon.

Here are links to the EKOS, Léger and Angus Reid polls.

http://www.threehundredeight.blogspot.com/

SATURDAY, APRIL 16, 2011
[szie=14pt]Week 3 Ceilings[/size]

The Conservative ceiling in this past third week of the campaign has risen to a very comfortable level for Stephen Harper. The Liberal ceiling, on the other, has dropped by 16 seats.  

The ceilings are established by taking the best regional results for each party from all of the polls released during the week, and running seat projections with those results. Of course, these calculations are greatly influenced by the smaller samples of regional polls. But we can still draw some useful information from these ceilings, as it is unlikely that the parties are capable of outpacing the best polls when you consider that the best polls are likely a few points higher than reality thanks to the MOE.

The Conservative ceiling is based on receiving roughly 46% of the vote in Canada. This number combines the best regional polling results for the Tories this week: 49% in British Columbia, 70% in Alberta, 59% in the Prairies, 49% in Ontario, 25% in Quebec, and 49% in Atlantic Canada.

With these levels of support, the Conservatives would likely win 25 seats in British Columbia, 28 in Alberta, 25 in the Prairies, 68 in Ontario, 12 in Quebec, and 19 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 178. That's well into majority territory, and in fact this scenario puts the Liberals only two seats ahead of the Bloc Québécois, 54 to 52.

This scenario isn't, however, extraordinarily plausible. While the results out West and in Quebec are not very unusual, a 17-point lead in Ontario is, and it is difficult to see the Conservatives reaching almost 50% in Atlantic Canada. But these levels of support do not put the Conservatives ahead in a lot of long-shot ridings, instead they limit the opposition to their fortresses. That is not such an unlikely scenario.

The Liberal ceiling is down from 117 last week, and based on a national haul of about 34% of the vote: 34% in British Columbia, 19% in Alberta, 23% in the Prairies, 42% in Ontario, 27% in Quebec, and 43% in Atlantic Canada.

This would give the Liberals 11 seats in British Columbia, none in Alberta, three in the Prairies, 45 in Ontario, 21 in Quebec, and 20 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 101. But the Conservatives would still win 135 seats, and the combined totals of the Liberals and NDP would still be four short of the Tories - five if we include André Arthur.

This scenario also counts on a few stretches: the NDP vote needs to collapse in British Columbia and Atlantic Canada, while the Bloc needs to drop to a historic low in Quebec. The results in the three Prairie provinces, Atlantic Canada, and Ontario are not unthinkable, and in fact don't even vary all that much from what some of the pollsters have been reporting on a regular basis.

If we look at how the weekly ceilings have changed since March, we can see that the Conservatives have been increasing their range - though not drastically. The ceiling has varied from 160 to 178 seats since March, a relatively minor variation that can be chalked up to the statistical wobbling of the polls. What is notable is that their upper ceiling has remained over 155 seats, which is not where I had their ceiling for much of 2010.

The Liberals, on the other hand, have varied a bit more, from a low of 86 in the first week of the campaign to a high of 117 seats last week. None of these ceilings have put the Liberals ahead of the Conservatives, which is where they need to be. They all, however, show that there is some room for relatively significant growth for the Liberals. 

If you haven't seen them already, be sure to check Le Devoir  for today's updated seat and vote projections. These do not include the poll released by Nanos this morning, though tomorrow's vote and seat projections that will be featured on The Globe and Mail's website will.

So, based on ThreeHunbdredEight.com's modelling of the results of the aggregated polling data, the worst that could happen to the Conservatives is another minority with a net loss of eight seats. The best possible (but NOT probable) Conservative outcome is a solid Conservative majority.

 

[ModlrMike]

It still remains to be seen what effect adding Paul Martin and Jean Cretien to the campaign will have. We also need to see what the increased popularity of the NDP in Quebec does. I think that the former PMs might work against the Liberals out west and in Quebec, and for them in Ontario and the Maritimes. Although much depends on what the Conservatives can make of their prior attachment to Adscam etc. There's also the pesky raiding of EI, CPP and transfer payments that the Liberals have now offered up as targets.

The trickier analysis is the NDP effect in Quebec. As one article I read today stated their support is "a mile wide but an inch deep". With that as the case, it may give the Liberals or Conservatives a chance to steal a BQ seat through vote migration away from the BQ. As has been eloquently stated here and elsewhere, the BQ and NDP are similar in their appeal. Again, I think that the Conservatives might be the net beneficiaries as Quebec Liberals are more likely to go NDP than BQ. The retention and gain of seats in Quebec is a bigger challenge for the Liberals than for the Conservatives. I don't think the Conservatives have put much energy into gaining seats in Quebec, but then again I haven't paid too much attention to that part of the campaign.

 

[Edward Campbell]

More data, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/liberal-and-ndp-gains-dampen-tory-hopes-for-majority-three-weeks-in/article1988534/

CRUNCHING NUMBERS
Liberal and NDP gains dampen Tory hopes for majority three weeks in

ÉRIC GRENIER

Globe and Mail Update
Published Sunday, Apr. 17, 2011

With only two weeks left to go in the campaign, the likelihood that Stephen Harper will win a majority government has diminished. But though both Michael Ignatieff’s Liberals and Jack Layton’s Democrats are on the upswing, there might not be enough time left to scuttle the Conservatives’ chances of a stronger minority mandate.

If the election were held today, the Conservatives would take 38.8 per cent of the vote and 150 seats, according to ThreeHundredEight.com’s updated seat and vote projections for The Globe and Mail. That is still five shy of a majority and three fewer seats than were projected to go Tory one week ago.
The Liberals have made a small gain in the popular vote, with a projected 28.1 per cent support, but they have also made a gain of five seats. They are now projected to win 77, the same number of seats they held when the government fell.

With a recent gain in the polls, the New Democrats are now projected to have the support of 17.1 per cent of Canadians, enough to give them 34 seats in the projection – a gain of one since last week. Unfortunately for Jack Layton, however, much of their recent boost has come in Quebec where their seat prospects are relatively low.

The Bloc Québécois has the support of 36.1 per cent of Quebeckers, a drop of 1.3 points since last week and a decrease of 2.5 points over the last two weeks. This has reduced their number of seats to 47 in the projection, where they were when the election was called. Though this level of support would be the lowest in the party’s history, the relative weakness of their opponents in the province allows them to take most of the seats in Quebec outside of Montreal and Quebec City.

How the New Democratic vote will break, however, could decide a lot of races in the province. The NDP is up 2.3 points in Quebec over the last two weeks, and now enjoys the projected support of 16.9 per cent of Quebeckers. That would be an all-time best for the NDP in the province, and would net the party two seats: Outremont and Gatineau. The Liberals (at 20.6 per cent) and Conservatives (20.5 per cent), meanwhile, are projected to win 15 and 11 seats in Quebec, respectively.

In Ontario, both of these parties are hitting above their 2008 election weight, with the Conservatives at 41.9 per cent and the Liberals at 35.3 per cent. For Mr. Ignatieff’s party, that is a gain of almost two points in Ontario over the last two weeks. This has helped them take two Toronto-area seats from the Tories in the projection. They are now slotted to win 36 seats in Ontario, with 55 going to the Conservatives and 15 to the New Democrats. If the Liberals continue to make gains, they could win a half-dozen more seats in the province.

The last region of the country to show some shift in voting intentions is Atlantic Canada, where the Liberals have gained two points since the projection of April 3. They are now projected to enjoy the support of 38.1 per cent of Atlantic Canadians, ahead of the Conservatives at 36.4 per cent and the New Democrats at 19.1 per cent. The four NDP incumbents in the region, well ensconced in their ridings, are projected to be safe, while the Liberals are likely to take 16 seats (a gain of one) and the Conservatives 12.

But with the large advantage the Conservatives hold out West and roughly half of the seats in Ontario going blue, the Tories are still on track to win more seats than any other party (or combination of two parties). They are even likely to win more ridings than they did in 2008. Though the tide appears to be turning in the favour of the two main opposition leaders, there might not be enough time left in the campaign to sink the Conservative ship.

ThreeHundredEight.com’s projection model aggregates all publicly released polls, weighing them by sample size, date, and record of polling firm accuracy. The tested seat projection model makes individual projections for all 308 ridings in the country, based on the provincial and regional shifts in support from the 2008 election and including the application of factors unique to each riding, such as the presence of well-known candidates and the effects of incumbency.

These projections are a reflection of the likely result of an election if an election were held today. They are subject to the margins of error of the opinion polls included in the model, as well as the unpredictable nature of politics at the riding level.

Remember, please, Harold Wilson's definition of 'a long time in politics,' it's a week. We have two long times to go before most of us go to the polls.


Edit: format

 

[George Wallace]

Ignatieff is likely to win a lot of votes on this one, especially in and around Montreal
Got mine 

article:
Canadians need not fear replacing Harper: Ignatieff
By Mike De Souza, Postmedia News April 13, 2011 9:36 AM
http://www.canada.com/news/Canadians+need+fear+replacing+Harper+Ignatieff/4568597/story.html
---
"This government has patched the Champlain Bridge enough," he said. "It's time for a new bridge. It's that simple."

He said work on a new bridge would start early in the mandate of a Liberal government.

"It's our promise and we must start right away," he said. "There is engineering work (to do), environmental studies, and we must do this quickly because the (existing) bridge is reaching the end of its life in 10 years. We need a new bridge well before 10 years. This is a promise of the party. It's the promise of our team."

He added that the bridge was not just one for Montreal or its south shore but for all of Canada.
---

Looks like Igtnatieff is promising bridges everwhere he goes:

Ignatieff promises new Ottawa-Gatineau bridge
    http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/decision-canada/Ignatieff+promises+Ottawa+Gatineau+bridge/4623814/story.html


By Don Butler, Ottawa Citizen
April 15, 2011
A Liberal government would begin construction of a long-discussed new bridge between Ottawa and Gatineau by 2017, says party leader Michael Ignatieff.

Ignatieff made the commitment this week while campaigning for Steve MacKinnon, the Liberal candidate in Gatineau.

“A Liberal government will advance the project, and it would be a magnificent project for the 150th anniversary of Canada in 2017,” he said.

MacKinnon said Friday he’s “thrilled” by Ignatieff’s support for a new Ottawa River crossing, which he describes as his “number one priority. It’s been 50 years that this bridge has been under discussion, and it’s high time to get on with the job.”

One major stumbling block has been finding a politically acceptable location for a new bridge. The National Capital Commission, the two provincial governments and the cities of Ottawa and Gatineau are currently completing environmental assessments of three possible east-end routes: Kettle Island, Lower Duck Island and McLaurin Bay.

While the Liberal party hasn’t endorsed a location for the bridge yet, MacKinnon said his personal choice is Kettle Island, the location favoured by the cities of Ottawa and Gatineau. “I’ll keep an open mind but I’d have to be persuaded of other routes,” he said.

MacKinnon said it was premature to say how much a Liberal government would contribute toward the cost of building the new bridge.

The Liberals are trying to recapture Gatineau riding, currently held by the Bloc Québécois’s Richard Nadeau. Nadeau won the seat in 2006 and was re-elected in 2008 in a tight three-way battle with the NDP and the Liberals.

© Copyright (c) The Ottawa Citizen

 

[Jed]

I guess with all his time in the 'Big Apple', Mr. Ignatieff took lessons on how to sell the Brooklyn Bridge.

 

[Good2Golf]

MacKinnon said it was premature to say how much a Liberal government would contribute toward the cost of building the new bridge.

...but not premature to make this non-quantified commitment six years into the future?  ???

 

[midget-boyd91]

I hate to quote myself buuuut

"I'm going to give everyone in this riding a new bridge in exchange for your votes!!!" Sounds more like a bribe if you ask me.... but nobody did.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

The guy is supposed to be running for Prime Minister of Canada. Not stumping like a municipal politician in a race for Mayor. :

 

[PuckChaser]

Can Ignatieff come and build the Third Crossing bridge in Kingston? That project needs a little kick in the butt. I agree that he's throwing out promises like a municipal race.

 

[Dennis Ruhl]

Municipal politics?  Well Iggy did say that he would have financially supported Edmonton's Worlds Fair bid, unlike the evil Harper.  He would also give hundreds of millions to hockey owner billionaires, again unlike the evil Harper.

 

[ModlrMike]

Hmmmm....

A bridge for Montreal, a bridge for Gatineau, and a hockey rink for Quebec city. A cynic might say he's trying to buy Quebec's votes. Then again, a non-cynic might say the same thing.

 

[HavokFour]

Stop hiring City of Ottawa workers in Quebec and you'd cut the traffic in half.  ;D

 

[Dennis Ruhl]

Stop hiring City of Ottawa workers in Quebec and you'd cut the traffic in half.  ;D

Gatineau has a Bloc MP?  I suppose they expect to keep their Federal government jobs if Quebec leaves.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Gatineau has a Bloc MP?  I suppose they expect to keep their Federal government jobs if Quebec leaves.

As long as they show their passport when they cross the border ;D

 

[vonGarvin]

Instead of a new bridge, encouraging more car travel, why not invest a fraction of the price of a new bridge for more incentives to use public transit?  Just asking (You know, environment, and all that)

 

[57Chevy]

Looks like Igtnatieff is promising bridges everwhere he goes:

Maybe he's trying to bridge the gap  :

 

[midget-boyd91]

Maybe he's trying to bridge the gap  :

Noo, I think I'm going to have to stick with bribes.  If he was trying to bridge any gaps he should be doing so on issues that matter to Canada and all Canadians.... not those in a particular riding or two.