Colin P said:
The problem for making predictions is that had you in May 2001 stated that Canada would spend around a decade in a ground war in Afghanistan taking causalities, bombing Libya and Hunting Pirates off the coast of Africa, you be laughed out of the mess. My gut feeling is things are going to get worse globally and it's very likely the west is going to get dragged kicking and screaming into several more more conflicts. Hell even the Afghans guys were saying : "The Cold War is over" but it's not and we are seeing combatants conducting Soviet style combat in the Ukraine complete with MBT's, Grad strikes and active AD shooting down aircraft.
I'm fully in agreement with you but, politically speaking, if there is one thing that the Afghan experience has done is made us more timid in responding. ISIS is arguably a greater threat internationally than the Taliban ever were but look at our (and the international community's) current tepid response. Same for the Ukraine. I really agree with you that at some point in the future, we will have to become involved with a more credible forces than we are capable of generating today and that we should take the opportunity of the pause that we have right now to figure out how to do that.
I think that we are all agreed that our current level of defence spending is inadequate. Most people on this board (as well as NATO) is advocating for Canada to increase defence spending. I don't believe that increased spending is a realistic possibility even if we were to re-elect another Conservative majority.
For me the math is very simple: if we want to have more people, better equipment and a deployable, trained organization then we need to find that money within current funding levels and the
only way that I can see to do that is to replace a large number of the people who are paid 365 days per year with ones that are paid 60 - 90 days per year.
There is no doubt that such a reserve heavy deployable field force concept comes with challenges BUT the biggest challenge is simply accepting that such a concept change is essential. All other challenges that need to be faced in making a reserve heavy force an effective one are comparably small once the need to move to such a system is recognized.
The Conservatives have pledged an increase in the reserve force by 5,000. That's an interesting move in itself showing that they do recognized a need for more forces. The trouble in my mind is that with our current military bureaucracy's inertia favouring a reg centric system, such increases will be paid for out of existing, or slightly augmented, funds leaving reserve equipment and training standards most probably worse than they are now.
Remember that when Leslie made his Report on Transformation, his recommendations pointed almost exclusively at
preserving the regular force "front line" numbers by reducing bloat in headquarters (military civilian and consultant). His Thrust 2 Army Force Generation Structure called for a two division force (1 Regular, 1 Reserve) where 2 Div's responsibility is domestic response and augmentation to 1 Div. His team had a defined goal: "the explicit goal of the transformation team was to identify areas where we could reduce overhead and improve efficiency and effectiveness, to allow reinvestment from within for future operational capability despite constrained resources" and guiding principles to work with the first of which was: "the need to make every dollar count in the terms of the pursuit for operational efficiency".
Never once in the report is there an analysis of the courses open vis a vis the army's regular/reserve mix; it jumps to and maintains (if not entrenches even further) the current model of a divided ref/res force with all of its inherent inefficiencies and financial burdens. I don't doubt for a minute that there is a downside to a mixed reg/res deployable field force but without a proper analysis of the pros and cons how will we know whether or not the cons are insurmountable? IMHO Leslie utterly failed in what was his primary job; presenting DND/CF (not to mention the government) with a full range of options to consider and pursue. :2c:
:cheers: