TBH, as much as we might want to reach up and punch above our weight with a massive load of VLS cells, I have to ask the question.
"Will we ever fire them in anger?"
I was on CHA during the Libya Fracas, and we did not use any of our heavy armament in response to actual attacks.
I know that the world is changing, but realistically, how likely are these ships to launch outside of trials and workups?
Now...also looking at the 32 cell pack, if there's an additional SeaCeptor on top of that, and there's some quad pack ESSM, then there is actually a heck of a lot of localized firepower.
I don't know what our intended VLS loadout would be, but I'll suspect that it would be fairly 'general purpose'...and here's how I would see that:
-8 x Quad ESSM (32 missiles)
-4 x ASROC
-20 x SM-X (2/3/6/etc)
That would be a fair bit of capability, with enough depth of field to reach out quite well in long range air defense for 12-18 targets (Pk open source says 60-90% single shot effectiveness according to google.)
Looking at the current state of RUS naval aviation, they seem to be launching less than 10 bombers at a time to launch missiles at Ukraine. Generally 2 missiles per bomber. So, if RUS decided to attack a CSC, it could probably launch 20-ish missiles at a time. Suppose it was a combined attack, and there was a sub launch and surface launch of an additional 8 missiles, (not unreasonable) then you have 28 missiles in the air. All fired at a single target.
Outer layer air defense would fire 20x SM2 (SM6/etc) and let's say that the shoot down rate is 15/20. 75% Pk, which fits into the given window.
That leaves 13 missiles still inbound into the inner layer - and if they launched 26 ESSM (pair launches) at the incoming, you'd end up with almost a 100% kill rate - even if there's a leaker or two, you've still got SeaCeptor.
So.
Looking at the current 'worst case' scenario, you have the ability to defeat, with a single, lone CSC, the inbound threats from a combined surface/sub-surface/air launch from RUS, using a 'big push' as they do now with UKR.
However.
Sustainment - the ship would be down to 6 ESSM and SeaCeptor....so....a follow up attack would be problematic.
However, based on the current 'turn around' time for RUS attacks on UKR, the ship would have a day to get somewhere where there's an ally to assist, or to get somewhere that has spare missiles to load up.
I've watched a USN ship load BGM-109's in less than 10 minutes per cell.
Getting 250 miles to a port where there's missiles waiting on the jetty is a 10 hour transit, then load missiles for 4 hours, and back on station 250 miles out is another 10 hour transit.
The problem is, what's happening during the 24 hours 'off station' - and that's where allies come in, and those allies (especially our big one to the south) have deep missile magazines, and could, legitimately, stave off a daily attack like that 3 days in a row before heading off-station to reload.
So, ammunition management becomes important. I've been pondering this based on which ships I've been seeing reported as shooting down Houthi drones and missiles. There is a point at which those ships had to head off to reload.
In anything less than a 'worst case' missile strike, our CSC's could stay on station for multiple days dealing with the threats being encountered today.