Canada/US Border Integrity Thread

[Remius]

You can't combat them by ignoring them and turning a blind eye. Sometimes you have to get dirty and break some eggs.

Didn’t say that. But these cartels are not just street punks

I can't fathom any government appointing a drug czar to co--ordinate and keep it controlled among the cartels. The Great Caesar notwithstanding and March on the doorstep.

Like I said, not sure if that is the solution or not but conventional war on this may cost more than it’s worth. Isn’t Mexico’s military involved in that already? How is that working?

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

I can’t speak for every aspect of such relationships, but much exists already. A ‘few’ years back, there was a case where DEA Black Hawks crossed the border and handed off to RCAF assets well north of the border. Everything went smoothly and no one got their face in a knot with a decently armed UH-60 in Canadian airspace for a few hours until it went home….after a poutine-fest at YSC airport.

Exactly. It already happens anyways, mostly as a result of our collective disinterest in all things related to National Security.

Look at the North. It's mostly all America up there anyways.

Need to treat the 'War on Drugs' as an actual war, with the intent of eliminating the enemy to the point that they are unable to continue the fight. I don't see how the US can continue to allow Mexico to get off so lightly in terms of their continued inability to address their systematic drug problem. As for us, individuals involved in the drug trade should be labeled 'enemy combatants' and treated accordingly.

100% and having done some counter-narcotics operations myself. I think we should be taking a way heavier hand. I interdicted smugglers that had been caught multiple times and we let them go every time.

Should have sunk their vessels and dropped them off on the edge of territorial waters in a raft IMO, or just sent them to the bottom with their boats.

And yes, rolling in to Juarez with the 4th Armoured Division should be on the table.

 

[Czech_pivo]

It would make Afghanistan seem like a cakewalk.

There is a difference - it would not be a religious war, where there is a constant, steady stream of brainwashed individuals coming forward each year.
I do not believe that beyond the initial cadre and maybe a some knock on effect, that the cartels would be able to sustain the fight. Young Mexicans don't believe that there are 72 Virgins waiting for them when that 5.56 hits. There is no Caliphate to be created.

 

[dimsum]

And yes, rolling in to Juarez with the 4th Armoured Division should be on the table.

I’m not sure the incoming “I won’t start new wars” POTUS would agree to that, especially given how many US body bags that could result.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

A few US SOF types on Joe Rogan saying that going to war with the cartels would be a mess.

They are well armed. Mexican gvt and agencies are likely severely compromised and there are cartel types in country that could easily change their drug distribution model into a bomb distribution model.

Ever watch Rome? Ceaser knew he’d never be rid of the crime culture in Rome so he put a guy in there to keep it controlled.

Not sure if that’s the right approach but if you can’t fight the supply side you might get more results on the demand side.

Something tells me that fighting what would become an insurgency on its own soil would not be a good idea.

You know what else is messy.... East Hastings:

Compounding this problem is the fact every day Mexicans are so embedded in the drug network from production to distribution. It's a whole of community effort in many parts of that country. For many It's their only way to make a living.

Still, I say do it.

Central and South America have the Latin Disease aka Corruption.

Corruption is everywhere but it is a way of life there. Whereas in Canada/US 1-2% are on the take, in Mexico it's like 20-30%. Imagine working in a Govt department where 1 in 3 people are on the take.

Yah if we want to win this, we need to go full scorched earth on the place and expect some blowback.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Penalties have to be severe enough that it scares people.

I used to say I wanted to be buried at sea. And now that I have done that ceremony a few dozen times no way in hell that's how I'm being disposed off. Nothing looked more lonely than dumping off someones ashes in box into the middle of the Atlantic and watching them drift away...

So, dump them alive in the middle of the ocean, let them spend their last moments alone and lost in either. They can spend their last moments reflecting on what got them there.

 

[Good2Golf]

You know what else is messy.... East Hastings:

UFWD and compromised Canadians, right there…

 

[Remius]

Still, I say do it.

no new wars eh?

 

[Czech_pivo]

You know what else is messy.... East Hastings:

View attachment 90553



Central and South America have the Latin Disease aka Corruption.

Corruption is everywhere but it is a way of life there. Whereas in Canada/US 1-2% are on the take, in Mexico it's like 20-30%. Imagine working in a Govt department where 1 in 3 people are on the take.

Yah if we want to win this, we need to go full scorched earth on the place and expect some blowback.

Take a look at the top 10 countries where our immigrants are coming from and then map that against the Corruption Perceptions Index - 2023 Corruption Perceptions Index: Explore the results - and see where the trend can potentially go here in Canada.....

ADDENDUM:

Top 10 Immigrant Counties to Canada 2023 Corruption Perception Ranking 2023
1) India Rank 93
2) Philippines Rank 115
3) China Rank 76
4) Nigeria Rank 145
5) Cameroon Rank 160
6( Afghanistan Rank 162
7) Eritrea Rank 161
8) Iran Rank 149
9) Pakistan Rank 133
10) France Rank 20

Canada's rank on the Corruption Perception Ranking 2023 - 12

Don't think that the above doesn't have the ability to negatively impact our way of way.

 

[Remius]

There is a difference - it would not be a religious war, where there is a constant, steady stream of brainwashed individuals coming forward each year.
I do not believe that beyond the initial cadre and maybe a some knock on effect, that the cartels would be able to sustain the fight. Young Mexicans don't believe that there are 72 Virgins waiting for them when that 5.56 hits. There is no Caliphate to be created.

Plenty of them don’t want to have their relatives heads mailed to them for non compliance either.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

Penalties have to be severe enough that it scares people. If a person sells, makes, transports illegal drugs it should start with (just spitballing) say an automatic 20 years. No parole, no ifs, ands or buts. No judicial discretion. Increase it in blocks of 5 years based on the severity of the case. A low level street dealer gets 20. A person caught with more than a certain amount gets 25, 30 or 35 depending. Build the penitentiary above the tree line.

As far as Mexico, I think Trump is going to designate the cartels as terrorist organizations. It could allow them to change the way they go after those groups.

We'll see. Monday is in the headlights and it's going to be a busy day.

The current President of El Salvador created a pretty effective blueprint for dealing with the miscreants. El Salvador only really got their crime problem under control once they stopped treating MS13 & Barrio 18 as petty criminals and unleashed the full force of the Armed Forces on them.

 

[dimsum]

There is a difference - it would not be a religious war, where there is a constant, steady stream of brainwashed individuals coming forward each year.
I do not believe that beyond the initial cadre and maybe a some knock on effect, that the cartels would be able to sustain the fight. Young Mexicans don't believe that there are 72 Virgins waiting for them when that 5.56 hits. There is Caliphate to be created.

I think it’ll be worse - like the Mafia in Sicily and elsewhere, the cartels also provide services to the folks seen as forgotten by the Mexican govt. Having Americans roll in (or support the govt which they already distrust - as @Humphrey Bogart says, up to 1/3 of Mexican govt officials are on the take) won’t endear them to the locals in a “hearts and minds” campaign.

Also, from the article below, the Mexican govt hasn’t exactly been covering themselves in glory taking the fight to the cartels.

Mexico’s Long War: Drugs, Crime, and the Cartels

Violence continues to rage more than a decade after the Mexican government launched a war against drug cartels.

www.cfr.org

 

[Remius]

The current President of El Salvador created a pretty effective blueprint for dealing with the miscreants. El Salvador only really got their crime problem under control once they stopped treating MS13 & Barrio 18 as enemy combatants and unleashed the full force of the Armed Forces on them.

That can be a solution. But incentivize Mexico to do it.

 

[dimsum]

Yah if we want to win this, we need to go full scorched earth on the place and expect some blowback.

Will the American people be receptive to said blowback?

It’s one thing to have American military members die “over there” in Afghanistan prior to the rise of social media, but I cannot see the greater US public being ok with their boys and girls from Iowa (or worse, El Paso TX) dying in Juarez literally across the Rio Grande.

My crystal ball would say there is a huge shock and awe push, like Iraq in 2003, then…well, the rest of Iraq until 2014.

 

[Remius]

You know what else is messy.... East Hastings:

View attachment 90553

Yes. Which is why finding a solution to the demand side might be a better option. How that can be achieved is beyond my wheelhouse

Central and South America have the Latin Disease aka Corruption.

Corruption is everywhere but it is a way of life there. Whereas in Canada/US 1-2% are on the take, in Mexico it's like 20-30%. Imagine working in a Govt department where 1 in 3 people are on the take.

Precisely why this is a challenge.

Yah if we want to win this, we need to go full scorched earth on the place and expect some blowback.

Cost vs risk analysis. I am willing to bet it’s been done or considered and someone didn’t like the math results.

 

[Good2Golf]

Yes. Which is why finding a solution to the demand side might be a better option. How that can be achieved is beyond my wheelhouse

Why go on the demand side?

The Government knows where the supply side issue originates and flows.

 

[childs56]

I’ll only say “you can’t do that” with things I happen to be qualified to speak to. Since I’m qualified to speak to police arrest powers and legal authorities for use of force, that’s why I offered the insight that I did. I did ask you how you proposed actually doing what you suggested, and I notice you don’t have an answer to square the circle of “what if they don’t stop when we tell them to?”

The viability of loading people on planes and forcibly bringing them back to Nigeria or Haiti is outside of my arcs. In that case police will still be responsible for arresting them, and seizing and examining and then subsequently safeguarding their effects.

Is it not CBSA job to detain,escort people out of the country?
The few I have dealt with that's how it was done.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I think it’ll be worse - like the Mafia in Sicily and elsewhere, the cartels also provide services to the folks seen as forgotten by the Mexican govt. Having Americans roll in (or support the govt which they already distrust - as @Humphrey Bogart says, up to 1/3 of Mexican govt officials are on the take) won’t endear them to the locals in a “hearts and minds” campaign.

Also, from the article below, the Mexican govt hasn’t exactly been covering themselves in glory taking the fight to the cartels.

Mexico’s Long War: Drugs, Crime, and the Cartels

Violence continues to rage more than a decade after the Mexican government launched a war against drug cartels.

www.cfr.org

So if that's the case and the desire to take the fight directly to the cartels in their strongholds is not the approach, then Trump's desire to build a wall that is as effective as the old East German wall across Germany is the viable option?
If Trump frames his decision to build the 'Wall' as a way to vastly reduce (notice I didn't say eliminate) the flow of illegal drugs into the US coming from Mexico and not to stop illegal migration, maybe he'd get a larger % of the US population on board with the idea.

 

[Remius]

Why go on the demand side?

Because if there is no demand there is no need for supply.

Say it works. Invasion, occupation insurgency for 20 years.

Do you truly think that if the demand is still there that the vaccum won’t be filled by another supplier?

 

[dimsum]

So if that's the case and the desire to take the fight directly to the cartels in their strongholds is not the approach, then Trump's desire to build a wall that is as effective as the old East German wall across Germany is the viable option?
If Trump frames his decision to build the 'Wall' as a way to vastly reduce (notice I didn't say eliminate) the flow of illegal drugs into the US coming from Mexico and not to stop illegal migration, maybe he'd get a larger % of the US population on board with the idea.

I’m getting the suspicion that people here aren’t understanding the volume of trade that goes between US and Mexico, and what the border looks like in some key areas.

This is the bridge between El Paso, TX and Ciudad Juarez. In the picture, Mexico is to the right - so all those cars / trucks are going north into Texas. Of the two, Juarez is by far the larger city.




All that today that an East German-style wall between US and Mexico is a non-starter - “the trade must flow”.