With billions of dollars promised to the navy in the form of combat, patrol and support ships, the federal government pledged last June to form a "strategic partnership" with two Canadian shipyards to help carry these promises to fruition.
Forming these partnerships is key to the government's stated objective of firing up two sustainable and robust private shipbuilding clusters in Canada through which it can pipe its various big-ship requests. It's also part of its unstated objective of currying favour with key voters, say experts who follow the shipbuilding saga.
On Feb. 7, the government announced that five shortlisted companies—Davie Yards outside Quebec City; Irving Shipbuilding in Saint John, New Brunswick; Vancouver Shipyards in Vancouver; Kiewit Offshore Services in Milton, Ont.; and Seaway Marine & Industrial in St. Catharines, Ont.—have until July to submit their proposals.
That timeframe is far enough away for Conservatives to get an election out of the way, if that's in the cards. They will want to, because the politics behind the decision—both the potential boons and ramifications—are extremely significant.
"Really, the purpose of this national shipbuilding strategy is to guarantee regional employment," says Chris Madsen, an associate professor at the Royal Military College of Canada who specializes in maritime strategy and history.
A general consensus is that the biggest contenders now are Davie, Irving and Vancouver, meaning the East, Quebec and the West are in direct competition. Experts argue the three of these have the most going for them in terms of attracting the government's attention. Who will lose out?
Quebec
The most contentious issue is whether the government will go for Davie Yards situated near Quebec City, which is in bankruptcy protection but represents a strategic location in terms of electoral politics and history...
New Brunswick
Eastern Canada is more opposition-dominated than other areas of the country, meaning the Conservatives smell blood there.
In Defence Minister Peter MacKay's home province of Nova Scotia, only four of its eleven ridings are held by Conservative MPs, including Mr. MacKay, and prominent opposition members, both Liberal and NDP, hold several ridings around the Halifax area, historically a shipbuilding centre. The Liberal Defence critic Dominic Leblanc is also close by in eastern New Brunswick.
Giving the contract to Irving in Saint John would thus demonstrate to those voters unsure of whether to hand the Tories a bigger majority in the area that the party is serious about shipbuilding...
British Columbia
Out west it's a slightly different story. British Columbia is one of three Western "have" provinces, its economy recovering from the recession, its growth expected to slowly eliminate its budget deficit over the next few years. The Conservatives have MPs in a majority of ridings in the province. The demographics are different; there is less of an employment emergency...
Other issues
While regional politics will most likely guarantee that the current strategy is carried out, experts argue selecting two major commercial shipyards will cost the Canadian taxpayer the most as well as proceed the slowest [emphasis added], and it's worth it for the government to consider the financial burden it's heaping on its citizens...
If there's anything experts agree on, it's that the current budgeted price is probably being low-balled, considering the level of uncertainty so far and the long-winded procurement process...
With the current tug-of-war going on between the navy and the government over how many expensive destroyers and frigates to build, compared to how many lower-cost patrol ships, and what capabilities they will have, the price tag is up in the air.
