All Things Cuba (Castro, politics, etc.)

[Staff Weenie]

While I may be naive on this issue - I've never fully understood the rationale of the US embargo. I believe that all people in the world suffer from some form of greed/jealousy - not necessarily in a bad way - they just 'want things'. In essence, they want what their perceived neighbour has.

For Cubans - this means an envy for things taken for granted by most North Americans - two cars in the driveway, a fridge full of food, etc. Let's admit it, we're pretty much at the apex of the pyramid for individual material wealth in the world.

By placing an embargo on Cuba, the US sets themselves up as the proverbial bad-guy. They are blocking the flow of these goods into Cuba, and Castro becomes their protector, the guy who fought to apportion out equally what meagre resources were left to the benefit of all. And, when you control all the media, it's easy to reinforce that impression.

Had the US taken the opposite approach, and tried to flood their market with material goods and rampant consumerism, then Castro would have been the sticking point, and his people would have seen that he was the one preventing them from getting what they want, and their anger would turn on him.

Probably an oversimplification, I know, but it's something plausible.

 

[geo]

American politicians have been catering to the wants of the cuban expats

 

[Staff Weenie]

And by doing so, they've painted themselves into a corner. Cuba isn't the greatest market around, but it's still another approx 11.4 million folks just a stone's throw away!

 

[CougarKing]

Why do I have a feeling that if Castro has stepped down/effectively retired, (and is still alive contrary to what T6 thinks), that he may still be effectively influencing his brother Raul's decisions and pulling the strings from behind the scenes, even if he has ailing health? This case with Castro might parallel that of China's Deng Xiaoping influencing Jiang Zhemin in the mid-1990s before Deng died and when Jiang was still president, even when Deng's health slowly deteriorated till his death.

Personally, I don't think Raul will last long even if he wields an iron fist...

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I suspect little will change for now, he is just formalizing the current situation, they will not veer to far from his formal polices while he is still alive. However upon his death expect to see the US use this as an excuse to open the door to formal talks and if the Cubans are smart they will use the talks as a way to remove the repayment of seize assest requirements. If Obama gets in he will be falling over himself to make this his showcase, low risk international statement.

 

[CougarKing]

If Obama gets in he will be falling over himself to make this his showcase, low risk international statement.

I doubt it; his proposed foreign policy objectives seem to focus more on Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Anyways, there is also the possibility that there will still be a major regime change in Cuba before the current President Bush's term ends, in which case he can now claim to getting rid of two despots in two countries as his legacy.  Speaking of which, isn't the Cuban-American voting bloc in the States more Republican-leaning, IIRC?

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I believe they are. Consider this, Obama is a newbie on the scene, Castro kicks it on his watch, he can change decades of US policy with minimal risks of a major backfire. Unlike Iraq or Afghanistan where his hands are somewhat tied and the risks of any move are quite high.

 

[a_majoor]

The Cuban American exile community demonstrates how American policy is really predicated on domestic concerns. The Cuban American community is perhaps the driving force behind the American end of the embargo (although we should not forget that Fidel used the embargo as an excuse to deflect all blame for the failure of his policies and maintain an iron grasp on Cuba).

Once the Castro family dies or is deposed, we can expect the internal situation of Cuba to become unglued in fairly short order. I would expect that a local Mafia similar to the one plaguing Russia will seize control behind the curtain and proceed to fleece the locals, exiles trying to reclaim their property and naive Canadian and European investors and tourists. How Americans outside the exile community will fare is a bit beyond me, I expect they are not particularly interested in Cuba and will probably want to stay clear. Certainly the idea of American economic intervention, much less a US led stabilization force will attract a lot of negative opposition (although the historical record of American interventions in Cuba is actually quite good. See Max Boot, The Savage Wars of Peace.)

Russia never really had a chance, since there is very little cultural or historical experience in Democracy or Rule of Law in that country. Cuba has a stronger record, but the effects of a half century of repression may have erased that from the island. Time will tell.

 

[CougarKing]

I believe they are. Consider this, Obama is a newbie on the scene, Castro kicks it on his watch, he can change decades of US policy with minimal risks of a major backfire. Unlike Iraq or Afghanistan where his hands are somewhat tied and the risks of any move are quite high.

Still, even if Obama decides to change US policy in one-fell swoop, whether or not that policy will be effective will also depend on whether Raul Castro will still be in power if and when Obama enters office. Regime change before then? Perhaps. But if the Castros survive long enough to still be in power when Obama is in office, there might or might not be a parallel between any Obama initiative to open up to Cuba and Nixon visiting mainland China in the early 1970s. Just something to think about...

Cuba has a stronger record, but the effects of a half century of repression may have erased that from the island. Time will tell.

Wait a minute...wasn't the dictator that Castro overthrew in 1959- Fulgencio Bautista- a repressive dictator as well?

 

[Colin Parkinson]

The Cuban American exile community demonstrates how American policy is really predicated on domestic concerns. The Cuban American community is perhaps the driving force behind the American end of the embargo (although we should not forget that Fidel used the embargo as an excuse to deflect all blame for the failure of his policies and maintain an iron grasp on Cuba).

Once the Castro family dies or is deposed, we can expect the internal situation of Cuba to become unglued in fairly short order. I would expect that a local Mafia similar to the one plaguing Russia will seize control behind the curtain and proceed to fleece the locals, exiles trying to reclaim their property and naive Canadian and European investors and tourists. How Americans outside the exile community will fare is a bit beyond me, I expect they are not particularly interested in Cuba and will probably want to stay clear. Certainly the idea of American economic intervention, much less a US led stabilization force will attract a lot of negative opposition (although the historical record of American interventions in Cuba is actually quite good. See Max Boot, The Savage Wars of Peace.)

Russia never really had a chance, since there is very little cultural or historical experience in Democracy or Rule of Law in that country. Cuba has a stronger record, but the effects of a half century of repression may have erased that from the island. Time will tell.

I don't think things will come unglued, the shift of power has taken place, the players are lined up already and they have no interest in letting things go as much, it will likely be a somewhjat more relaxed form of "eternal revolution" Enough easing up to allow the embargo to be reduced/ended, in fact the embargo might actually sustain the current government, giving the people something to focus on externally.

 

[Yrys]

In Miami, muted reaction to Castro resignation

MIAMI - There was little dancing in the streets, no widespread celebration. In Little Havana, the heart of the Cuban exile community,
the long-awaited news that Cuban President Fidel Castro resigned brought only muted glee — and a feeling that little would change for the
communist island many had fled.

As news of the resignation spread, motorists honked vigorously at police patrol cars and television reporters. Isolated shouts of “Free Cuba!”
echoed in the streets, and small groups gathered to chat in local eateries. But the community’s reaction to the news, long expected to spark
vibrant celebration, was filled with caution. “I hope this is the beginning of the end of the system, but we have to wait,” said 35-year-old
chemist Omar Fernandez, who left Cuba for the U.S. six years ago.

Documentary on Fidel Castro by Oliver Stone. It was pulled out of cable broadcasting and only shown outside the US.

rest of article on above link

Castro démissionne, devient un « soldat des idées »

 

[tomahawk6]

There arent many dictator's that have willingly gone into retirement and Castro is no exception. After a half century in power Fidel is content to tend his garden in his twilight years ? I think not. Raul is just as hard line as Castro so the US position wont change.

 

[stegner]

Wait a minute...wasn't the dictator that Castro overthrew in 1959- Fulgencio Bautista- a repressive dictator as well?

Yup. 

 

[a_majoor]

The primary difference between the two dictators is Fidel Castro didn't even pretend to follow the Rule of Law. I'm sure Raul doesn't feel constrained by such considerations either.

Regardless, after a 50+ year interregnum from the rule of law it may be difficult to get back on track.

 

[geo]

I truly do not understand why the US doesn't just drop the embargo to celebrate the end of Fidel's term..... flood Cuba with Americano consumerism for a while.  Cubans have done without the things we take for granted for going on 50 years now... they don,t know what they're missing.  Drop the embargo & let them see what they can thank Fidel & Raoul for.

 

[tomahawk6]

An interesting development if it goes forward. Brazil offers help but with strings attached and Raul still prefers the Brazilians to Chavez and would be an opening to the US.

http://www.mercopress.com/vernoticia.do?id=12692&formato=HTML

Raul Castro asks Lula da Silva help with transition process
Cuba’s interim president Raul Castro requested advise and help from Brazil’s Luis Inacio Lula da Silva “to accelerate the political and economic transition process” in the island according to Wednesday edition of the prestigious Folha de Sao Paulo.

The newspaper reports that during the January Brazilian presidential visit to Havana, Raul Castro praised Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez for having helped Cuba “in a particularly tough moment of the ongoing confrontation with the United States George W Bush administration”.

Nevertheless Fidel Castro brother is quoted saying that Brazil “is a far more convenient associate than Venezuela’s Chavez”, for the transition period.

On Tuesday in an open letter the ailing Fidel Castro who underwent serious intestinal surgery in 2006 and since named his brother Raul temporary caretaker president, announced his definitive renouncement to any political, party or military post or responsibility.

The Folha de Sao Paulo piece based on data allegedly disclosed by members of the Brazilian government delegation that visited Cuba with the Brazilian president, says that Raul also requested Lula da Silva to convince United States to end the economic embargo dating back to 1962, and which President Bush has made even stricter.

The same sources added that President Lula da Silva wants to stimulate Brazilian businessmen to invest in Cuba if the project to speed political and economic transition is effectively confirmed.

“In the words of one of the ministers, Brazil is one of few countries in the world capable of having a dialogue with the Cuban regime, with Chavez and with the US government”. Besides “he’s far more useful for that purpose than the conflicting Chavez who is at loggerheads with United States and Colombia”.

According to Folha de Sao Paulo Raul Castro proposal had a good reception from President Lula da Silva: “in the dispute with Venezuela for the leadership of Latinamerica, Brazil would very much like to help Cuba in a post-Fidel Castro scenario”.

However Lula da Silva emphasized to Raul Castro that any economic advances in Cuba must run parallel to a greater political opening, according to members of the Brazilian presidential delegation that visited Havana.

Lula da Silva went further and suggested to the Cuban interim president “gestures in the field of human rights (release of political prisoners), evidence of a real transition intent and not only a follow up of the Chinese model (economic opening and iron hand in politics)”, concludes the interesting article.

 

[Danjanou]

Wait a minute...wasn't the dictator that Castro overthrew in 1959- Fulgencio Bautista- a repressive dictator as well?

Yup and in 1933 then Sergeant Batista was the union leader of Cuba's soldiers, and the leader of the 1933 "Sergeants' Revolt" that replaced the provisional government of Carlos Manuel de Céspedes, at the request of the coalition that had recently ousted President Machado.

Anyone else see a pattern here.

On one of my frequent trips to La Isla Bonita a friend told me in confidence that in the old days a Cuban election was when they took their rifles and went up into the mountians. Who ever came down was the new Government.

 

[geo]

You may be onto something Danjanou +1

The Castro era is coming to an end.... Raul is no spring chicken = caretaker till something else will happen.
The best way for the Cuban expats to get involved in the future is for them to encourage Dubya into opening dialogue - setting the expats rights to return to Cuba as a precondition for the loosening of embargo restrictions....

And then we can start to speculate about who will be the next "great dictator". 

 

[Edward Campbell]

As attractive as democracy is, in an Athenian, mob-rule, sort of way, it is a fragile system that requires a firm base of principles – those old ’respect for the rule of law’ and ‘respect for the principle of equality under the law for the governed and the governors alike’ sort of principles.

Neither principle is traditional anywhere in Latin America – not in Chile, not in Mexico and not anywhere in between, either.

 

[CougarKing]

The Castro era is coming to an end.... Raul is no spring chicken = caretaker till something else will happen.

And Castro knows it...  :rofl: