All Things Cuba (Castro, politics, etc.)

[Richie]

I find some of this speculation amusing.  Raul Castro has more or less been running the country for the past few years.  Do seriously think that there are going to be any changes?  I don't.  At least not until Raul Castro also passes on, and that isn't to be likely for quite some time.

Raul may have been running the country for the last few years, but Fidel has become such an icon of the Cuban revolution that his death may serve as a catalyst for a detente of sorts between Cuba and the U.S. Also, Raul is known for being more pragmatic and less dogmatic than Fidel, he may be waiting for his brother's death as well.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Raul may have been running the country for the last few years, but Fidel has become such an icon of the Cuban revolution that his death may serve as a catalyst for a detente of sorts between Cuba and the U.S. Also, Raul is known for being more pragmatic and less dogmatic than Fidel, he may be waiting for his brother's death as well.

Quite possibly, I suspect that the public annoucement of Castro death will allow everyone to move to towards agreements without losing face.

 

[a_majoor]

Why Cuba has been so popular with the "Left":

http://www.damianpenny.com/archived/011010.html

Sí, no tenemos ningún logo

Actually Cuba does. Given this clear success in branding by a true bully, I await Naomi Klein's response:

    As Fidel Castro brings his reign in Cuba to a long overdue end, we are left to ponder how a leader with such a dismal economic record could retain power for a half-century.

    [...]

    ..if we view Castro's political machine through the apolitical prism of the market, we can attribute its durability to a concept that's alien to his socialist rhetoric, and deeply rooted in the American capitalist system he claims to despise: branding. Castro's political "success" is a case study in managing the global information economy.

    The Cuban Revolution is and always has been a brand. Its face has changed over time -- from the "barbudo" rebels of the Sierra Maestra to Che Guevara's piercing stare, from Cuba's graying salsa legends to its globe-trotting medics -- but incredibly, its essence has survived.

    Marketing gurus tell us that a successful brand functions as a store of values. It encapsulates a pool of attractive ideas that satisfy customers' desire for meaning. To encourage loyalty to a brand, they say, the marketer must cultivate a sense of belonging and personal identification with the individual.

    For many within a core constituency of left-leaning, relatively well-educated people both inside and outside Cuba, Castro's "revolution" achieved precisely this. To this niche market, Cuba evokes a set of magical buzz words long-favored by the radical left: "resistance," "social justice," "struggle." It represents an idealized, selfless counterpoint to ruthless, greedy capitalism. It is the alternative to brand U.S.A...

    [...]

    Now Cuba's brand centers on health care. Its free hospitals are depicted as alternatives to an unfair, inefficient U.S. system, while its foreign-posted doctors put a face on the country's projected spirit of humanitarianism.

    Some 200 of these medics turned up at last October's 40th anniversary of Che's execution in La Higuera, Bolivia. They demonstrated how the Cuban revolution's brand has been simultaneously altered and preserved through a period of sweeping transformation on the island and in the world outside it.

    These doctors -- members of a 30,000-strong foreign medical corps, whose work gives Havana access to badly-needed goods like Venezuelan oil -- are unwittingly contributing to a mounting problem back home. Their absence exacerbates staffing constraints in Cuba's once well-regarded hospitals, now stretched by the demands of an aging population. Nonetheless, in the long string of speeches at La Higuera, Cuban, Venezuelan and Bolivian officials feted the physicians as model revolutionaries -- guerrillas with stethoscopes in place of rifles. And in case the branding tie-in wasn't clear, each medic was dressed in a white lab coat opened to reveal a red or blue Che T-shirt.

Ms Klein should hurl in outrage. But Canadians, with our broad anti-American streak, have for a long time been most willing customers of Brand Cuba. Selfish and self-satified fools on the beach.

As for t-shirts (tip from J.M. Heinrichs)...

Mark C.
Posted by markc at March 11, 2008 08:44 PM

 

[Richie]

<a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080318.wcomment0318/BNStory/International/home">Link to Article</a>

Perhaps this is the beginning of the long-awaited thaw in Cuba. I hope so, but this is a big iceberg that's been around for a long time, so we may have to be patient. These are baby steps, but they seem to be leading in the right direction. Enough metaphors for one night. 

Richie


Small steps, but Cuba is no China

FRANÇOIS BUGINGO AND BENOÎT HERVIEU

Special to Globe and Mail Update

March 18, 2008 at 12:54 AM EDT

After acting as president since mid-2006, Raul Castro was finally appointed Cuba's head of state in his own right by the country's executive Council of State on Feb. 24. Many of the circumstances surrounding the transfer of power from his brother, Fidel, are unknown, but people are beginning to talk of a policy of "small steps." We have to recognize that this transitional government has taken a significant step in an area it had hitherto ignored: human rights.

A week before the appointment, Alejandro Gonzalez, one of 27 journalists arrested during the Black Spring of 2003 was released on health grounds, along with three other dissidents. And four days after the official handover, Cuba signed two United Nations covenants — one concerning economic, social and cultural rights; the other concerning civil and political rights.

The most radical dissidents scoffed at these steps — the government continues to hold about 240 prisoners of conscience (including 23 journalists) and tolerates no opposition, no labour freedom, no independent press. But moderates were cautiously optimistic.

For many years, Raul Castro's image was that of an inflexible general in the shadow of his elder brother. Nowadays, he is being portrayed as a pragmatist, a man of change, a sort of Cuban Mikhail Gorbachev. Mr. Castro himself seems rather to identify himself with Deng Xiaoping, the Chinese architect of (economic) change with (political) continuity. Everything for tourism and foreign investment, but nothing for human rights, political pluralism or basic freedoms.

Cuba is obviously not China. Although it is a member of the UN Human Rights Council, it has no large market to divert attention from its repressive practices. But that could be seen as to its advantage. Could Mr. Castro's regime continue for many more years to claim that keeping its dissidents in prison is a matter of national security and sovereignty? It was on the absurd grounds that the 27 journalists had violated "Cuba's territorial integrity and sovereignty" that they were arrested in 2003 and given sentences ranging from 14 to 27 years in prison, although all they did was work for non-government news media.

Nineteen of them are still in prison five years later, mistreated by their guards, deprived of medical treatment and sometimes punished with solitary confinement. Another journalist has been held without trial since 2005, and three others have been jailed on a charge of "pre-crime social dangerousness" since Mr. Castro took over in 2006. However, eight of the journalists have been released on health grounds since 2004, and it is hard for the regime to claim that those it is still holding are more harmful. The recent releases are an implicit recognition of this.

By freeing more of its political prisoners, the Cuban government would be honouring the two UN covenants it has just signed. The small step of a signature leads to bigger steps: opening prisons, and opening up to democracy.

The health and education systems Cuba has developed and the punitive U.S. embargo do not exempt the regime from respecting human rights and the rule of law. Cuba is not China, and should not try to imitate it.

François Bugingo is president of Reporters Without Borders Canada. Benoît Hervieu is head of the Americas desk for Reporters Without Borders.

 

[geo]

Unfortunately, I do not believe the US Gov't will look objectively at any Cuban gov't action (short of total abdication).  There are too many Cuban expatriates in Miami and they wield waaay too much power within the US political system.  Till the current Cuban Gov't is overthrown AND the expats are given back every single last expropriated asset back, the expats will not be satisfied... which means the expats will continue to pressure the US gov't to maintain status quo OR increase the blocade.

 

[Richie]

Unfortunately, I do not believe the US Gov't will look objectively at any Cuban gov't action (short of total abdication).  There are too many Cuban expatriates in Miami and they wield waaay too much power within the US political system.  Till the current Cuban Gov't is overthrown AND the expats are given back every single last expropriated asset back, the expats will not be satisfied... which means the expats will continue to pressure the US gov't to maintain status quo OR increase the blocade.

I think that's only part of the story.

Raul has been "setting the table" to invite the Americans for a business lunch. The tentative steps he has taken as outlined in the article I posted above are proof of that. He can continue to take these steps but I believe he's really waiting for two things:

1.) The death of his brother.
2.) The outcome of the U.S. election

There are other actors in this unfolding drama: U.S. corporations. They've been watching Canadian and European corporations operate in Cuba for years now, wishing that they could get in on the action. Who holds more sway on the American political landscape: Cuban expats or American corporations? This is not a rhetorical question, I honestly don't know the answer.

Right now, Raul can continue to ease up on human rights abuses, set chairs at his table for the Americans and then wait like the rest of us to see the outcome of November's election. If the Republicans win, he will likely dine alone; if either Clinton or Obama win, he may well have a guest at his table.

At any rate, the Americans are looking inward right now due to their election; Raul can continue arranging the silverware and then sit and wait until the election is over and Americans start looking at what he's done.

Interesting times ahead for Cuba.

Richie

 

[geo]

A lot of US corporations did own assets in Cuba & some hunger to get everything back.  But they are lobbyists VS the cuban expats who are members of the American electorate.... they,ve all taken out US citzenship and wield power in Florida & in Washington via their votes.
I think that Raul can stand on his head and dance up the street to the White House in his birthday suit as much as he wants - nothing will come of it until all the doors are open and the Cuban comunists fold up their tents and clear out.

 

[Richie]

Don't ever underestimate the power of lobbyists in Washington; they can have a very powerful effect on how Congress votes, regardless of how the people have voted. Unfortunate, but a reality in today's world.

I'm not denying the role played by Cuban expats on this issue by any means, but don't dismiss the power of corporations in shaping the foreign policy of any modern democracy.

I'd like to see the communists out of Cuba as much as anyone, but I believe that it will be a gradual process with steps taken by both Havana and Washington. A meeting halfway.

 

[a_majoor]

An assessment of Castro's rule

http://www.damianpenny.com/archived/011062.html

What might have been

The Calgary Herald's Mark Milke compares pre-Castro Cuba to other nations which were even less well-off at the time:

    In 1958, the year before Fidel Castro came to power in a revolution and promised prosperity, democracy and the restoration of Cuba's 1940 constitution, the Caribbean island, while troubled by poverty, a corrupt dictator and the American Mafia, was also better off than most developing nations.

    While poor compared to the United States, Cuba in 1958 had a per capita GDP of $3,170 according to the OECD. (Canada's was $8,947.). But Cuba outranked all other Latin American countries except four: Argentina, Chile, Uruguay and Venezuela.

    Tellingly, in 1958, the island nation's per person wealth was higher than any East Asian country or colony, save Japan, which barely beat Cuba at only $3,290. Hong Kong had a per capita GDP of $2,924, Singapore's was $2,294, the Philippines' was $1,447, Taiwan's per person GDP stood at $1,387 and South Korea's was $1,112.

    Thus in 1958, Cuba was almost as rich as Japan, one and half times as wealthy as Singapore, richer than Hong Kong, and three times as prosperous as South Korea.

    Fifty years later, Cuba is one of the poorest countries in Latin America.

    Meanwhile, jurisdictions such as Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan (the latter two also had dictators and problems similar to Cuba in the 1950s) have long eclipsed Cuba. They've done so not only in per capita wealth, but in measurements Castro's defenders point to when they assert the Marxist revolution "worked," such as in health care and education. [via Arts & Letters Daily]

Yeah, but do any of their leaders look so cool on a T-shirt?

 

[geo]

Thucydidies,
the 1958 study you quote includes Japan, HongKong, South Korea & Taiwan.... all countries that were in the process of recovering from WW2.  The money invested in rebuilding alone would guarantee improvement in GNP.

All of those countries were not blockaded by their closest nieghbour - the USA

Why didn't they also include some other countries like NORTH Korea or Burma.... beause their deductions wouldn't have worked with those countries.

 

[CougarKing]

Thucydidies,
the 1958 study you quote includes Japan, HongKong, South Korea & Taiwan.... all countries that were in the process of recovering from WW2.  The money invested in rebuilding alone would guarantee improvement in GNP.

All of those countries were not blockaded by their closest nieghbour - the USA

Why didn't they also include some other countries like NORTH Korea or Burma.... beause their deductions wouldn't have worked with those countries.

Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan all became prosperous and became 3 of East Asia's Asian Tiger economies not only through US aid, but through the use of IMPORT SUBSTITUTION over time.

As for your question on North Korea and Burma- wasn't the DPRK/North Korea a strong Sino-Soviet ally especially at this time during the height of the Cold War- so I doubt your said deductions apply to it. While Burma was its own mess after leaving British rule, IIRC.

 

[NL_engineer]

Don't ever underestimate the power of lobbyistsRetirement Planners in Washington; they can have a very powerful effect on how Congress votes, regardless of how the people have voted. Unfortunate, but a reality in today's world.

I had to make the change, the whole lobbyist system is all about how much does your vote cost.

just my 2 cents

 

[Richie]

I had to make the change, the whole lobbyist system is all about how much does your vote cost.

just my 2 cents

No argument here. Lobbyists have a very corruptive influence on the democratic process and not just in the States. They also seem very solidly entrenched, it'll be difficult to get them out. However, in this case, they may prove themselves useful by countering the influence of the Cuban community in Florida. I stand by my earlier posts to the effect that relations between Cuba and the US can be normalized slowly once Fidel is gone and American companies start pressuring Congress to at least talk to the Cuban government. To meet halfway would be better for all concerned, in my opinion.

 

[a_majoor]

While circumstances are obviously different, the overall difference is the "Tigers" (and other examples like the Republic of Ireland and India) have adopted the precepts of free markets, personal liberty and the Rule of Law while Cuba, Burma and North Korea did not.

It is economic liberalization rather than the "Permit Raj" or similar bureaucracies which create wealth. We will see this experiment repeated yet again in Ontario, as the Liberals engage in Tax and Spend Keynesian economics while Alberta and the Federal government are more geared towards Classical economics.

 

[CougarKing]

As if people aren't already using cellphones and watching pirated DVDs in Cuba.  :

http://www.cnn.com/2008/TECH/03/28/cuba.cellphones.ap/index.html

Ordinary Cubans gain access to cell service

Story Highlights
Raul Castro's new government now allows citizens to have cell phones

Previously only those working for foreign firms or the state could have cell phones

Raul took power in Cuba after his brother, Fidel, stepped down last month

Some Cubans had already gotten phones with the help of foreigners

HAVANA, Cuba (AP) -- President Raul Castro's government said Friday it is allowing cell phones for ordinary Cubans, a luxury previously reserved for those who worked for foreign firms or held key posts with the communist-run state.

It was the first official announcement of the lifting of a major restriction under the 76-year-old Castro, and marked the kind of small freedom many on the island have been hoping he would embrace since succeeding his older brother Fidel as president last month.

Some Cubans previously ineligible for cell phones had already gotten them by having foreigners sign contracts in their names, but mobile phones are not nearly as common in Cuba as elsewhere in Latin America or the world.

Telecommunications monopoly Empresa de Telecomunicaciones de Cuba S.A., or ETECSA said it would allow the general public to sign prepaid contracts in Cuban Convertible Pesos, which are geared toward tourists and foreigners and worth 24 times the regular pesos Cuban state employees are paid in.

The decree was published in a small black box on page 2 of the Communist Party newspaper Granma.

The government controls well over 90 percent of the economy and while the communist system ensures most Cubans have free housing, education and health care and receive ration cards that cover basic food needs, the average monthly state salary is just 408 Cuban pesos, a little less than $20.

A program in Convertible Pesos likely will ensure that cell phone service will be too expensive for many Cubans, but ETECSA's statement said doing so will allow it to improve telecommunication systems using cable technology and eventually expand the services it offers in regular pesos.

The statement promised further instructions in coming days about how the new plan will be implemented, and there were no lines of would-be customers mobbing ETECSA outlets as they opened for business.

ETECSA is a mixed enterprise that operates with foreign capital from the Italian communications firm Italcom.

 

[a_majoor]

As if people aren't already using cellphones and watching pirated DVDs in Cuba.  :

http://www.cnn.com/2008/TECH/03/28/cuba.cellphones.ap/index.html

While some people probably are, without the cell phone infrastructure most people cannot (and given the way cell phone technology works, it would actually be dangerous to use a cell phone, particularly if you are not part of the "elite"). As for DVD's, first you need to have a television and a DVD player, items most Cubans are unable to buy given their low incomes and lack of a reliable source of supply.

 

[NL_engineer]

While some people probably are, without the cell phone infrastructure most people cannot (and given the way cell phone technology works, it would actually be dangerous to use a cell phone, particularly if you are not part of the "elite"). As for DVD's, first you need to have a television and a DVD player, items most Cubans are unable to buy given their low incomes and lack of a reliable source of supply.

Can you explain how cell phones are a danger (and don't get into driving with them, as some the Cuban drivers I've seen make Canada's worst look good  :)

In most of the developing world, the cell phone is the only phone people use/have seen.

 

[Greymatters]

While some people probably are, without the cell phone infrastructure most people cannot (and given the way cell phone technology works, it would actually be dangerous to use a cell phone, particularly if you are not part of the "elite"). As for DVD's, first you need to have a television and a DVD player, items most Cubans are unable to buy given their low incomes and lack of a reliable source of supply.

I dont recall seeing a single DVD player, or even VCR player, the entire time I was there...  although I was only there for 2 weeks, so who knows what treasures were overlooked, possibly a laser disk player or even a Beta player?  Wasnt really looking for it but most places (home, hotel or bar) made do with the standard television, usually set on the local news, sports, or music channel.

Although many places had computers, those in private residences were apparently strictly controlled (if not monitored) by the government, and foreigners were told they had to use the public internet cafes if they wanted internet access.

Many tourists had cell hones, but very few locals citizens had them.  Those that did were most often recognized as acting in some form of 'government employee' status...

Reference black market stuff like CDs, DVDs etc, it might be available in underground black markets and in the homes of the 'upper class', but none of that was for sale at any public markets...

 

[geo]

In most of the developing world, the cell phone is the only phone people use/have seen.

Years ago I worked for a company that pressure treated wood for the Utilities - local & abroad...
1.  Installing a network of utility poles and running cables through wild country requires a lot of resources developping countries don't have... MUCH easier to set up the individual antennaes needed to support a cell network.

2.  Local natives see utility poles and railway ties as "WOOD" - the stuff they burn in order to keep warm & / or cook... so ties and poles have had a tendency to dissapear really fast.  We would be asked to put in 2-3 times the usual amount of creosote or oil into the wood.... so that when burned it would smoke soo bad that it MIGHT discourage the natives from stealing and burning them.

 

[Greymatters]

2.  Local natives see utility poles and railway ties as "WOOD" - the stuff they burn in order to keep warm & / or cook... so ties and poles have had a tendency to dissapear really fast.  We would be asked to put in 2-3 times the usual amount of creosote or oil into the wood.... so that when burned it would smoke soo bad that it MIGHT discourage the natives from stealing and burning them.

Its very annoying to be driving along a road come up to a bridge and almost drive into a river because the locals have taken most of the wooden bridge ties for personal use...