All Things Cuba (Castro, politics, etc.)

[Arctic Acorn]

With all due respect, I think you grossly overestimate the Americans interest in the country. At the very least the next 4 years are a write off, as Bush is going to be pretty focussed on getting re-elected (mostly by not doing drastic like, for instance, invading Cuba). If he is reelected he‘ll probably be tied up with the Middle East. If the Democrats are elected...I REALLY doubt invasion of Cuba is on Kerry‘s ‘To Do‘ list.

Additionally, I also doubt the American government would sit idly by and let a group of illegal immigrants take up arms and launch an armed insurrection from Miami. There are people on this site who are better versed on all things Cuban than I, but I find the whole thing far-fetched. Though I‘m having fun imagining a gaggle of illegal immigrants, armed with various small-arms (acquired through Cuban street gang contacts), paddling bathtubs the 90 miles to havana...

 

[jrhume]

As mentioned above, interest in invading Cuba is low in the US, except in south Florida.

The subject of invasion plans has come up before. All competent military staff organizations develop and maintain contingency plans based on relevant risks. I‘ll bet all of us would be amazed to see the contingency plans lying around in CF headquarters and its various operational elements.

The US has to develop such plans for a wide variety of situations and that effort is carried out by professionals -- not all of whom are mere majors.

I‘ll bet a six-pack that Cuban invasion plans, in several forms, are extant in the Pentagon and at the headquarters of lower commands, especially those who might be called out on short notice for such an invasion. Think about it. Fort Bragg, Fort Benning, Tyndall AFB and others would be involved from the get-go. The planners at those facilities probably maintain plans coordinated with an overall Pentagon-level plan. I‘m reasonably sure they would also develop independent plans covering contingencies not mentioned in the larger plan.

This is the sort of thing military staffs do.

One possibility: How about if we have a surrogate invade Cuba?
Mexico?
Canada?

 

[Ex-Dragoon]

Well there is that old 1935 plan you guys can dust off JR lol.

 

[winchable]

Well it seems the fall hasn't phased Fidel much and "removing" the US dollar from Cuba will go ahead as planned.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/cuba/story/0,11983,1336696,00.html

Also, big vote in the UN (if anyone cares anymore) on the trade embargo tommorow.
It seems there were only 3 countries against lifting the Embargo in the entire world.

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/NewsStory.aspx?section=NATIONAL&oid=62216

Danjanou, what do you think?

Thought I'd combine the two stories into one post

 

[I_am_John_Galt]

From the first article: "from November 8, these would have to be exchanged for pesos to be spent, and there would be a 10% commission."

Amazes me that Castro's still a hero to so many socialists ... [slow, barely perceptible shaking of the head]

 

[winchable]

As I understand the 10% commission is to act as a buffer against any risk the Cuban government is taking.
As far as I know the american bucks are being used on the international market to purchase things such as medical supplies, books, etc.

I dunno,
It's really much less black and white than many of us are led to believe.
Castro began with a model for a government that could have revolutionized the entire of LATAM. In the US' Backyard? Not bloody likely. Land reform? The united fruit company sees otherwise.
For better or for worse he is the most important figure in LATAM politics, and one of the most enduring fighters in the world.
At 78 years old I cannot picture any man shattering bones on a stage then getting up and giving a 15 minute speech.
He's had to "make deals with the devil" but I don't blame him, I don't think he jumped off that cliff and I firmly believe he was pushed.

I would love to see Cuba indpendent and sovereign from foreign investment, a self-sufficient model that LATAM could follow but I've learned the hard way that some things will not be allowed to happen.

 

[dutchie]

Well said Che.

 

[Danjanou]

Just when it econically viable to go back to Cuba with our lame dollar at plus eigthy cents too.

So you mean I now have to figure out how much the Jinteros are going to charge me in Euros for my blackmarket Cohibas and Langosta?

Well good thing I no longer have to worry about the Jinteras. 8)

Seriously not a good move in the long run. The US Dollar is a common currency in a lot of places and this may start to inconvenience the touristas who still acount for most of his outside revenue.

As for the embargo its a farce. It has more holes in it than McGguilty has broken election promises.

 

[I_am_John_Galt]

As I understand the 10% commission is to act as a buffer against any risk the Cuban government is taking.

Yeah, right.  I suppose the point that it amounts to a 10% tax on everyone holding the only currency of any value in the country is moot, right?  This is the essence of socialism: transfer of wealth to a ruling elite from everyone else, as it is supposedly in their best interests.

The only reason why Cuban economy hasn't already completely self-destructed is the years of artificial support it got from the USSR. 

I still can't figure out how the "anti-globalization activists" reconcile their notion of the evils of free trade with opposition to the trade embargo on Cuba (no imperialistc trade with evil American multinationals = must be a paradise, right?).

 

[Infanteer]

Also, big vote in the UN (if anyone cares anymore) on the trade embargo tommorow.
It seems there were only 3 countries against lifting the Embargo in the entire world.

Unfortunately, one of those 3 is the only one that really matters.

I would love to see Cuba indpendent and sovereign from foreign investment, a self-sufficient model that LATAM could follow but I've learned the hard way that some things will not be allowed to happen.

It's funny that people seem to blame all the problems of the of Cuba on the embargo.  Isn't it ironic that the path to a bountiful socialist paradise can only be met with access to the harvest of a liberal, free market economy?

I fully recognize that the Batista regime was a corrupt kleptocracy, but this fact doesn't necessarily make Castro's regime "good."  The fact that he went to bed with the Soviets speaks volumes about his credibility (and sent troops in support of gaining more Kremlin satelites).

The road to hell is paved with good intentions.

 

[winchable]

Unfortunately, one of those 3 is the only one that really matters.

Absolutely disagree. Might will never make right in my books even if that is the case for the majority of career politicians.

It's funny that people seem to blame all the problems of the of Cuba on the embargo.  Isn't it ironic that the path to a bountiful socialist paradise can only be met with access to the harvest of a liberal, free market economy?

The "problems" of the Cuban economy is that it is a developing country and that it is using a model that stands outside of what is "right"
Name the latin American country with the lowest level of HIV, name the latin american country with the lowest unemployment rate, name the latin American country that provides the best health services (Arguably Costa Rica fine) highest literacy level?
Or, name the latin American country that consistently comes near the top of all of these catergories.
A free market economy in a developing world is horse shite. Economy is a concern, but an economy is useless if the people are dead and if the economy belongs to foreign investment.

I fully recognize that the Batista regime was a corrupt kleptocracy, but this fact doesn't necessarily make Castro's regime "good."  The fact that he went to bed with the Soviets speaks volumes about his credibility (and sent troops in support of gaining more Kremlin satelites

Going to bed with the Soviets isn't a term I would use.
Pushed into bed with the Soviets by an Eagle trying to peck out his eyes perhaps.

I don't believe his regime is good. But I don't particularly think any government in the world right now is particularly "good"
But it still stands as a model for development in LATAM and other developing countries that will never be allowed to occur even though it could potentially turn it around.

 

[winchable]

I'm going to get ripped to pieces for this I just know it.

And just when Infanteer and I had buried the hatchet

 

[Brad Sallows]

>A free market economy in a developing world is horse shite

So, how did the rest of us get from "developing" to "developed"?

 

[winchable]

So, how did the rest of us get from "developing" to "developed"?

If I were to tell you by riding the backs of the proleteriat this thread might degrade slightly in quality, so suffice it to say I believe the modern developed world got to be developed in ways that are unacceptable in modern times.

 

[Danjanou]

Nice points Che, but lets not forget name the country where Doctors, Engineers and other professionals etc leave those professions because they can earn more in tips as a good pool waiter in Varadero or Cayo Coco.

Name a country where I visited a local rural clinic and realised I had more basic medical supplies and drugs in my rucksack med pack than they did in the whole clinic.

Name a country where at one time said doctor turned pool waiter was forced to turn his dollar tip into the Government for a shiny peso as per the official exchange rate, this when the unofficial black market rate was 100 to 1. Not that it mattered as he was prohibited from even entering let alone shopping in the hard currency foreigner only diplomat stores.

Name a country where where young woman in their teens were forced by economic necessity into earning a living on their backs for dirty old men ( European and Canadian) to support families and if caught were given you guessed it three years strict regime.

Lets not get in to the political parts such as name a country where attempts at illegal immigration is worth 3 years strict regime prison cutting sugar cane, if caught (Balaseros)

Name a country where protesting the government is worth 3 years strict regime or worse, where trying to set up a mom and pop restuarant or B&B  can mean

Name a country where yes everyone got an education and access to Tv and/or radio, but were limited in what they were allowed to read watch listen to.

Name a country where talking to foreigner earned you a visit to the Policia, and maybe three years.

Name a country where testing positive for HIV meant forced confinement in a government institution against your will. Remember the Roqueros?

Two sides to every coin, even Moneida Nacional or Pesos Convertible mi Companero.

Infanteer for the record Sgt Batista did start asa reformer and guerilla leader against Presidente Machado in the 1920s and 1930s. As they say power corrupts and .....

 

[Infanteer]

Thanks Danjanou - checkmate.

Che, no worries mate.  We're here to debate.  If this means putting our conceptions and our angles and viewpoints up to be pecked at, then so be it.  There is no personal enmity in it (We got over that bump along time ago  ).

Absolutely disagree. Might will never make right in my books even if that is the case for the majority of career politicians.

I didn't mean that the US is the only one that matters in terms of power, I mean economically, the world can decide to accept Cuba with open arms, but until Cuba has access to US markets, the UN vote is useless.  The United States, as a sovereign country, is fully in its perview to maintain its own embargo.  It's funny how some are so eager to condemn the US for "meddling in others affairs" and then are just as eager to meddle in the affairs of Americans, telling them who and who they shouldn't trade with (YANKEE SCUM, DON'T TRADE WITH ISRAEL, TRADE WITH CUBA; LISTEN TO US OR WE'LL CONDEMN YOU!!!).

 

[winchable]

Also good points Danjanou.
Except for one:

Name a country where testing positive for HIV meant forced confinement in a government institution against your will. Remember the Roqueros?

I thought that was the initial knee jerk reaction and they've since changed that practice considerably.

I wouldn't call Castro a saint, but he's not entirely the devil either.

I still contend that they are better off than many of us in the west would say. Compare them to any country in africa and many countries in LATAM.
Had Castro never come along I see a Cuba in much worse shape than it is in right now.

Jefe needs to change there's no question but I do have a deep place in my heart for Cuba and I and many others would not like to see Cuba corruptd in the way it was before Castro and that was all under the eyes of the US administration.
What bothers the US (and I admit I have no way of getting into the mind of an American politician) is that this is one of the administrations in their Own backyard that they do not have a transparent view of.

He might be an old, grumpy, agressive, rhetorically filled, control fetishist, BUT he is Cuba's old, grumpy, agressive, rhetorically filled, control fetishist.
Why trade a controlling tyrant in Havana for a power that has use LATAM as a puppet show?

 

[I_am_John_Galt]

The "problems" of the Cuban economy is that it is a developing country and that it is using a model that stands outside of what is "right"
Name the latin American country with the lowest level of HIV, name the latin american country with the lowest unemployment rate, name the latin American country that provides the best health services (Arguably Costa Rica fine) highest literacy level?
Or, name the latin American country that consistently comes near the top of all of these catergories.
A free market economy in a developing world is horse shite. Economy is a concern, but an economy is useless if the people are dead and if the economy belongs to foreign investment.

For most (if not all) of those claims, the word "allegedly" should preceed!

That Cubans are fleeing the country and begging the US for asylum (remember Elian Gonzales?) suggests that it may not be the paradise you make it out to be ...

Going to bed with the Soviets isn't a term I would use.
Pushed into bed with the Soviets by an Eagle trying to peck out his eyes perhaps.

WHAT?!?!?  The Communist Party of Cuba was a member of COMINTERN since the 1920's!!!  (I thought the Chomsky discussion was in another thread!)

But it still stands as a model for development in LATAM and other developing countries that will never be allowed to occur even though it could potentially turn it around.

What does this mean?

 

[winchable]

For most (if not all) of those claims, the word "allegedly" should preceed!

Fair enough

That Cubans are fleeing the country and begging the US for asylum (remember Elian Gonzales?) suggests that it may not be the paradise you make it out to be ...

Perhaps, but I've never called it a paradise. I've described it as a model for developing countries that could potentially work, but paradise, never.
I've talked with quite a few Cuban academics, doctors, engineers who Castro has sent to other developing countries and they say "no" they will not leave. Cuba might be imperfect, but they've seen how the rest of the developing world is and they, due to experiences they would never have gotten under other regimes, know that the majority of the world is NOT any better.

WHAT?!?!?  The Communist Party of Cuba was a member of COMINTERN since the 1920's!!! 

And they didn't support Castro's rise to power for a minute until the United Fruit Company set the Eagle up in arms.
Opportunism? Yeah, but they had very little to do with Castro until the US started twisting Castros nipples.

And I'm not sure what's unclear about the last point.

 

[Infanteer]

Come on Che, you got to be kidding me?  Please tell me you've lived in Cuba so I can be sure I'm not mistaken you for some member of the local university chapter of the Spartacus League.  I've come to know you in the last while and your posts are solid and well thought out, so I'm honestly confounded by this "digging in" of the heels.  I am willing to send you my copy of Hayek's The Road to Serfdom.

Seriously though, I would encourage you to try and sell your convictions in Florida.  There is a reason people float on cars to get there.

I've talked with quite a few Cuban academics, doctors, engineers who Castro has sent to other developing countries and they say "no" they will not leave.

Hmm...notice the caveat.  The Soviets did this too...hey, I remember a great Olympics in Berlin in 1936 to showcase the Marvels of National Socialism.  Beware the snake-oil salesmen.