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Afghanistan: Why we should be there (or not), how to conduct the mission (or not) & when to leave

The Americanization of RC South--Jack Granatstein discusses the implications (usual copyright disclaimer):

The Americans are coming, the Americans are coming - to Afghanistan
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090317.wcoafghan18/BNStory/specialComment/home

Whatever their views on Canada's mission in Afghanistan, Canadians like to believe that our troops are doing a first-rate job in "Canadahar" and that our allies, especially the Americans, believe this as well. But do the Americans agree with our rosy assessment? Perhaps not, if The Washington Post is to be believed.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/14/AR2009031402178.html?sid=ST2009031500691

A 2,000-word article on Sunday by Post staff writer Rajiv Chandrasekaran hangs on extensive interviews with Lieutenant-Colonel Daniel Hurlbut, commander of the U.S. Army's 2nd Battalion of the 2nd Infantry Regiment that operates under overall Canadian command in Kandahar province, and Brigadier-General John Nicholson, a deputy commander of NATO forces in southern Afghanistan. Neither seems very pleased with the way the war is going.

Col. Hurlbut told the reporter that his unit is making slow progress in the town of Maywand, 45 miles west of Kandahar. The Canadians came every few months to clear out the Taliban, Mr. Chandrasekaran reports, but then they left and the insurgents returned almost at once. Col. Hurlbut is trying a different approach, putting his troops in Maywand on a permanent basis. But the locals, after years of watching the Canadians roll in and out, "don't yet believe us when we say we're here to stay."

There is not a shred of perspective in the Post story [not that the Canadian media do better - MC].

After the Manley commission report in early 2008, the Canadian government mounted a full court press to get another 1,000 troops into Kandahar province if its 2,500-soldier commitment was to be extended to 2011. The Americans were the only NATO ally to step up to the plate, and Col. Hurlbut's unit was the result [emphasis added]. Of course, the Canadians, with fewer than 1,000 troops operating in the field, could not hold Maywand and the rest of the province; they lacked the resources to do so. Now the 2nd Battalion is there, doing what Canadian commanders and Parliament believed essential. But no one expects instant results any longer, not even Col. Hurlbut.

More worrying, perhaps, are Gen. Nicholson's comments. Serving as deputy to a Dutch commander in the south, Gen. Nicholson sounds as if he's the boss. "If we're going to win," he says, "we have to fight this war differently. ... We've had a stovepiped approach to combat and to development, too. All that has to change." With the Dutch in Uruzgan, the British in Helmand and the Canadians in Kandahar all taking their own approach to combat and reconstruction, the Americans believe, there was a complete lack of co-ordination. "It's a totally dysfunctional way of fighting a war," another American officer told the Post. "You've got each of these guys doing their own thing in their provinces with very little co-ordination."

Gen. Nicholson clearly sees it as his task to achieve this co-ordination, to secure "a coherent regional plan for victory, not a bunch of national plans for victory." But he does not want to "demand" - in Mr. Chandsrasekaran's phrase - that the allies scrap their individual approaches. Instead, he is aiming for a regional development scheme that would spend $700-million on big projects. None of the allies are happy with the heavy-handed American approach, but all recognize that, whatever the official command structure in the south, the Americans, soon to put 17,000 more troops into Afghanistan, control the agenda. They will fight the war their way [emphasis added].

So what does this mean for Canada's Afghan commitment? First, it means the U.S. Army will soon be directing the battle against the Taliban and the counternarcotics fight in Kandahar. The Canadians' ability to determine their own approach will be seriously constrained, if not completely subordinated to American direction. Second, it means the "stovepiped" approach to combat and development will disappear, assuming that Gen. Nicholson gets his way. And he probably will. Reconstruction and the battle against the insurgents will be more closely integrated.

These U.S. plans are not foolish. Almost every Afghanistan watcher recognizes that the International Security Assistance Force command structure is a jerry-built house that must go if the war is to be won. But what will the response in Canada be to its soldiers serving under American command? Not good [emphasis added]. And how will Parliament react to tighter links between combat and development, something hitherto anathema to the Liberals, NDP and Bloc Québécois? This may be the issue that brings down the minority government.

In other words, there are certain to be more heated debates about Afghanistan in the coming months. The arrival of more American forces will almost certainly lead the Taliban to ramp up attacks in the south, and the casualties may be heavy. And the insurgents, alarmingly well-briefed on the political weak points of NATO's members, will certainly focus on the Canadian and Dutch forces [emphasis added].

Canadians at home and in the field need to be aware they will be tested. So, too, do the Americans, who might consider developing a more subtle approach at bringing their allies along with them [emphasis added].

J.L. Granatstein is a senior research fellow at the Canadian Defence and Foreign Affairs Institute.
http://www.cdfai.org/

Mark
Ottawa
 
Interview video with Gen. McKiernan/Americanization of the south--the general, commander of both ISAF and the newish separate command United States Forces - Afghanistan,
http://toyoufromfailinghands.blogspot.com/2008/10/afstan-new-us-command-structure.html
is interviewed on the PBS NewsHour, March 17, about the overall situation in AfPak:
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/asia/jan-june09/mckiernan_03-17.html

Video here:
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/video/module.html?mod=0&pkg=17032009&seg=3

It's noteworthy (and Lord knows how the segment was edited) that one tends to get the impression that Afstan is now essentially the US versus the enemy (the truth, perhaps?). I heard the general mention ISAF only once.

It's also striking how the American media are approaching a full court press on Afstan, Iraq having rather receded as a focus. The increasing depth and breadth of that coverage is very welcome, especially in the face of the remarkably shallow coverage, on the whole, by the Canadian media (see this post of Babbling Brooks).
http://toyoufromfailinghands.blogspot.com/2009/03/why-we-laugh-when-someone-talks-about.html
One supposes the American media have rather more of the esprit de sérieux than their "Gotcha!" Canadian cousins; plus a whole lot more money (at least so far) to fund reporting.

Another striking--and refreshing--thing: the much greater latitude of public expression members of the US armed services appear to have compared to their Canadian counterparts.

Mark
Ottawa
 
Two posts at The Torch:

Surging the Afghan forces and US civilians
http://toyoufromfailinghands.blogspot.com/2009/03/surging-afghan-forces-and-us-civilians.html

AfPak: Two visions for the future US strategy
http://toyoufromfailinghands.blogspot.com/2009/03/afpak-two-visions-for-future-us.html

Mark
Ottawa
 
Video of BGen Denis Thompson, just returned from the post of commander of Joint Task Force Afghanistan, on CTV's Power Play:
http://watch.ctv.ca/news/power-play/thursday-march-19/#clip151868

More at The Torch:

Afstan: Letting the CF go public
http://toyoufromfailinghands.blogspot.com/2009/03/afstan-letting-cf-go-public.html

Mark
Ottawa
 
AfPak: US strategy to be rolled out--looks like things are ready to move, with the US military getting just about what they wanted last year (by Jim Hoagland):

Behind the Afghan Strategy
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/20/AR2009032002312.html

You will hear a lot about President Obama putting his stamp on the war in Afghanistan over the next two weeks. But you won't hear the whole story. Smart generals and smart ambassadors don't upstage the boss, and Gen. David Petraeus and diplomat Richard Holbrooke are as smart as they come.

You will hardly see their fingerprints, even though the shape -- and the fate -- of the new Afghanistan strategy will depend greatly on the work and ideas of these two skilled policy operatives. Similar in drive and vision, they bring contrasting histories of involvement in American wars to their current assignments, and history is everything in Afghanistan, the land known as the graveyard of empires.

An informal beginning to the Afghan "rollout" -- D.C.-speak for a coordinated but segmented sales job of a new initiative to Congress, the media and diplomats of other nations -- will come in Brussels tomorrow, when Holbrooke will brief NATO allies privately on the strategic review ordered by Obama.

Then the president crosses the Atlantic to address three leadership summits, including NATO meetings in France and Germany April 3-4. Obama should be wise enough to avoid making a major issue of seeking new European troop commitments to Afghanistan[more here, including current troop strengths]. He will not want an air of confrontation to hover over a 60th-anniversary gathering that will also celebrate France's formally rejoining the alliance's military structure after a 43-year absence.

Instead, Obama plans to ask the Europeans to shoulder more of the financial and police-training burdens in Afghanistan [emphasis added] as the United States increases its military presence and shifts its counterinsurgency tactics to give greater protection to Afghan civilians and the 38,000 American troops already there.

According to U.S. and foreign officials, Petraeus -- the regional commander for the Afghan and Iraqi theaters -- convinced the president last month that sending 17,000 new soldiers to Afghanistan will enable U.S. and allied commanders to reduce their reliance on the airstrikes and Special Forces raids that have inflicted growing civilian casualties [emphasis added] and provoked bitter outbursts from President Hamid Karzai.

Obama is considering sending another U.S. combat brigade of trainers [emphasis added--presumably in addition to the two National Guard brigades already assigned to the job]
http://toyoufromfailinghands.blogspot.com/2009/02/afstan-extra-brigade-of-us-trainers-to.html
to help urgently double the size of the Afghan army.
http://toyoufromfailinghands.blogspot.com/2009/03/surging-afghan-forces-and-us-civilians.html
If he approves that deployment, Obama will come close to meeting the total increases that the military had sought from President George W. Bush before he left office.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2008/12/20/afghanistan-new-troops/
Bush deferred the request to Obama, although Petraeus and Defense Secretary Robert Gates supported earlier action.

[In September 2008 ISAF and US forces commander Gen. McKiernan wanted four US manoeuvre brigades;
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24309831-2702,00.html
three are being provided--see here,
http://toyoufromfailinghands.blogspot.com/2009/02/us-brigade-combat-team-begins.html
here
http://toyoufromfailinghands.blogspot.com/2009/03/us-really-starting-to-shape-things-in.html
and here.
http://toyoufromfailinghands.blogspot.com/2009/03/afstan-marine-expeditionary-brigade-to.html
That means only one more would be needed to fulfil Gen. McKiernan's wish. I strongly suspect that it will be sent, very likely to the Kandahar area to join the 5th Stryker Brigade Combat Team that's coming soon.]

Petraeus would also apply in Afghanistan another feature of the surge strategy that he championed in Iraq's Anbar province. U.S. intelligence estimates that only 5 percent of the Taliban are "hard core" ideologues sympathetic to al-Qaeda, and Petraeus wants a significant outreach by provincial Afghan officials and the U.S. officers who work with them to the "recoverable" Taliban [emphasis added]. National reconciliation would come later...

Mark
Ottawa
 
US will appoint Afghan 'prime minister' to bypass Hamid Karzai  
Julian Borger in Brussels and Ewen MacAskill in Washington guardian.co.uk, Sunday 22 March 2009 20.15 GMT
Article Link

The US and its European allies are ­preparing to plant a high-profile figure in the heart of the Kabul government in a direct challenge to the Afghan president, Hamid Karzai, the Guardian has learned.

The creation of a new chief executive or prime ministerial role is aimed at bypassing Karzai. In a further dilution of his power, it is proposed that money be diverted from the Kabul government to the provinces. Many US and European officials have become disillusioned with the extent of the corruption and incompetence in the Karzai government, but most now believe there are no credible alternatives, and predict the Afghan president will win re-election in August.

A revised role for Karzai has emerged from the White House review of Afghanistan and Pakistan ordered by Barack Obama when he became president. It isto be unveiled at a special conference on Afghanistan at The Hague on March 31.

As well as watering down Karzai's personal authority by installing a senior official at the president's side capable of playing a more efficient executive role, the US and Europeans are seeking to channel resources to the provinces rather than to central government in Kabul.

A diplomat with knowledge of the review said: "Karzai is not delivering. If we are going to support his government, it has to be run properly to ensure the levels of corruption decrease, not increase. The levels of corruption are frightening."

Another diplomat said alternatives to Karzai had been explored and discarded: "No one could be sure that someone else would not turn out to be 10 times worse. It is not a great position."

The idea of a more dependable figure working alongside Karzai is one of the proposals to emerge from the White House review, completed last week. Obama, locked away at the presidental retreat Camp David, was due to make a final decision this weekend.

Obama is expected to focus in public on overall strategy rather than the details, and, given its sensitivity, to skate over ­Karzai's new role. The main recommendation is for the Afghanistan objectives to be scaled back, and for Obama to sell the war to the US public as one to ensure the country cannot again be a base for al-Qaida and the Taliban, rather than the more ambitious aim of the Bush administration of trying to create a European-style democracy in Central Asia.
More on link
 
GAP said:
The main recommendation is for the Afghanistan objectives to be scaled back, and for Obama to sell the war to the US public as one to ensure the country cannot again be a base for al-Qaida and the Taliban ...
And here I was thinking that is what we were doing all along.  Guess this means the US might be ready to throw all its weight into ISAF as opposed to maintaining to seperate parrallel missions in that country.  Maybe?
 
I can see the need and the reasons for this, however I can also see the bleeding heart Left using this as ammo against the mission.

I don't see much good coming out of this.
 
Why appoint another person to the highest position in the country?  Aren't we just going to divide them into one "side" against the other?
 
From Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty:
...."I don't know what they're talking about," Richard Holbrooke, U.S. special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, told reporters in Brussels, referring to the report in British newspaper “The Guardian.”

"It doesn’t reflect any views that I am aware of in the government I work for and it's certainly not a universal NATO plan or anything," he said.

"Many people, including Afghans themselves, have called for a prime ministerial system, but the system of the government is the one set up by the Afghan constitution," Holbrooke said. "And nobody should be trying to change the constitution, except in accordance with its own provisions. I have no idea what that article was about"....
 
Timely Afghan advice
The Toronto Star
Editorial
24 Mar 09

As Canadians mourn the latest of our troops who have fallen in Kandahar, Afghanistan's political elite is doing some soul-searching as well. Many feel a sense of urgency about getting their house in order, while we and others are still there to help. After seven years of Western intervention, the insurgency has yet to be defeated. If anything, it is growing in strength.

Now, in the runup to an important United Nations conference at The Hague next week where Canada will help chart Afghanistan's future political, security and aid agenda, some of Afghanistan's best-known politicians are warning that "the world is beginning to lose patience" and "might pack up and leave" unless things improve.

That has President Hamid Karzai worried, as he campaigns for re-election Aug. 20. And it is a concern for U.S. President Barack Obama as he revises U.S. strategy.

The sheer magnitude of the challenges facing Afghanistan were outlined last week at a conference with high-profile participants including foreign minister Rangin Dadfar Spanta, and former ministers Ali Ahmad Jalali, Abdulah Abdulah and Ashraf Ghani.

Collectively, they were harshly critical of the Karzai government. Corruption, incompetence and narrow self-interest are feeding concern that the nation is not salvageable, they warned. "And we may never get such a chance again." Electing local officials, rather than appointing them, is one way to curb abuses, they suggested.

But they also had some tart advice for Prime Minister Stephen Harper's government and others that will be at The Hague on March 31.

Washington's military rethink must bring more coherency to a mission that has been parceled out, province by province, to allies that have different and confusing rules of engagement, they said. The allies must try harder to limit sharply rising civilian casualties, ease up on house raids and avoid subcontracting security to "unaccountable local actors."

When the allies take ground from the Taliban, they must hold it. Today, insurgents "own the night," they noted.

Canada and its partners must also continue to build up the army and police, and not rely on "disastrous" militias as in the 1980s and 1990s.

Foreign aid must be shared fairly across the country, not be pumped into Kandahar and other hot zones in the south and east, they said. More aid must reach the grassroots. Jobs must be found for demobilized militias. Salaries for police, teachers and civil servants must rise.

And while the Dubai panel favours "reconciliation" with the Taliban, it must be "from a position of strength" not weakness, they cautioned.

This agenda comes from seasoned Afghan leaders who are deeply invested in their country's success. The U.S., Canada and the 70 other countries that are expected at The Hague should give serious weight to these views in the strategic rethink. Helping the Afghan people help themselves begins with listening to them.
 
This agenda comes from seasoned Afghan leaders who are deeply invested in their country's success.
Their "deep investment" is a pretty balanced portfolio, since Abdullah Abdullah lives in Chevy Chase Maryland, and Ali Ahmad Jalali and Ashraf Ghani both live within the District of Columbia.

While potentially more influential over here, it's also a pretty safe place to dictate how others should liberate their country for them.
 
I sense the hand of Gen.Petraus in this idea of building up the local administration.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/24/opinion/24brooks.html?pagewanted=print

March 24, 2009
Op-Ed Columnist
Combat and Community
By DAVID BROOKS
Wardak Province, Afghanistan

You drive up to the forward operating base in Wardak Province in an armored Humvee, with the machine-gunner sticking up through the roof and his butt swinging on a little perch just by your head. Outside there’s a scraggly downtown, with ragamuffin Afghan children, almost no old people (the median life expectancy is 45) and dust everywhere. The dust of Afghanistan piles up in front of the storefronts and covers the ruins of the buildings destroyed during the Soviet period, or during the civil war or during some lost conflict from centuries past.

The Humvee takes the serpentine path through the checkpoint and you pass a double line of soldiers heading out on foot patrol. There’s a soldier that looks from a distance like a child in gear, but it turns out to be a tiny American woman smiling under her armor, pack and rifle, and you think that of all the great powers who’ve humped their way over these mountains, not another one sent out warriors as unlikely or effective as these.

After the checkpoint, there’s a parking lot with great lines of heavy vehicles. For years, the coalition forces fought this war on the cheap, but that’s changing. The U.S. has just increased troop levels tenfold in Wardak. The parking lots are bursting with hulking machinery, the avalanche of metal America brings to a war it takes seriously.

There’s a line of porta-potties and you’re brought into a plywood room. There are about 25 Army Rangers inside, linebacker types with crew cuts, except for a special-ops guy, Major Moses, who is dark-skinned with a thick beard. These men have been through Iraq, and they now have the habits of counterinsurgency warfare deep in their bones in a way they didn’t just a few years ago.

As they talk, it becomes clear that aside from killing bad guys, they’re also trying to figure out how to reweave Afghan society.

Before the Soviet invasion in 1979, Afghan towns had three parallel authority structures: the tribal elders, the religious clerics and the government representatives. The Soviets decimated the tribes and the indigenous government. That left only the mullahs, and their sudden unchecked prominence helped explain the rise of the Taliban.

The terror and the fall of the Taliban reduced clerical authority, too. By 2002, when the coalition forces arrived, village society was fractured, social capital decimated. The resulting disorder has been a perfect nesting ground for the insurgents. The insurgents are not popular in Afghanistan, the way they sometimes were in Iraq. But they have money, and young men in the villages talk about “taking a Taliban day” — that is, accepting a few hundred bucks to plant an I.E.D.

Between 2002 and 2005, the coalition and the Afghans were slow to recognize the perils of social fragmentation. The general view was that warlordism and civil war were the biggest threats. Therefore, power should be centralized with the national government. The country should be restored through a strong national government spreading outward.

That approach has had some success. The Afghan National Army is the country’s most trusted institution. But it’s also had many shortcomings. The national police force is ineffective. The central government has rarely been able to reweave the social fabric at the village level. Nobody’s been able to establish rule of law or end rampant corruption.

So the Afghans and the coalition are adapting. There’s been a shift to supplement central authorities with village authority structures. Under the National Solidarity Project, villages elect Community Development Councils. Western aid agencies give the councils up to $60,000 to do local projects, but it’s not the projects that matter most. It’s the creation of formal community structures. These projects are up and running in 23,000 villages.

Mohammad Halim Fidai, the governor of Wardak Province, and the guys in the plywood room are creating the Afghan Public Protection Program. Under it, villages would no longer depend solely on the national police sent from Kabul. Local committees would hire their own constabulary to guard schools, bridges and neighborhoods. Alongside just 26 national policemen in the area, there will be 250 local men from the A.P.P.P.

The program is controversial. Many feel it will lead to a return to local militias and warlordism. But if Afghanistan is to stabilize, there have to be local authority structures. The culture of conversation and consensus has to be formalized in institutions. These local structures have to be connected upward to the central state. And that’s beginning to happen amidst the armored Humvees and the daily threat of death.

When you put more boots on the ground, you not only augment your army’s firing power, you give it the capacity to experiment. A few years ago, the good guys had only vague ideas about how to win this war. Now they’re much smarter.

 
President Obama really talks turkey:

Obama: US will stay on offense in Afghanistan

Nearing completion of a revamped strategy in Afghanistan, President Barack Obama on Tuesday[March 24] said the United States will "stay on the offensive" to dismantle terrorist operations in the country even as it rethinks its goals in trying to end the seven-year-old war.

The president did not divulge details of his administration's war review, which he said is not yet complete. It is expected to be unveiled as soon as this week.

Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office, Obama said the threat of al-Qaida and its terrorist affiliates has not gone away. As a consequence, he said, "it's important for us to stay on the offensive." Yet he emphasized that the U.S, working with its coalition partners, cannot simply win the war militarily.

"My expectations would be that over the next several years [emphasis added], you are going to see a much more comprehensive strategy, a more focused strategy, and a more disciplined strategy to achieve our common goals," Obama said after meeting with Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd [see second part here]...

...I think that the American and the Australian people people also recognize that in order for us to keep our homeland safe, and in order to maintain our way of life and ensure order in the international scene, we can't allow vicious killers to have their way [emphasis added--I don't think the Canadian people feel the same way]," he said. We're going to do what's required to make sure that does not happen."

Sort of reminds me of a retired chief of the defence staff. I'm not much reminded of our prime minister.

Ah, for the good old days when there really was an Obama Jack:
http://www.damianpenny.com/archived/004571.html
...
"Controlled anger, given what's happened, is an appropriate response," NDP Leader Jack Layton said. "We have a very committed, level-headed head of our armed forces, who isn't afraid to express the passion that underlies the mission that front-line personnel are going to be taking on.

"A bit of strong language in the circumstances, I don't find that to be wrong."..

And pretty unilateral turkey talk from Richard Holbrooke:

The New American Determination
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,614893,00.html

Richard Holbrooke, the new US special envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan, wants to explain Obama's policy on Afghanistan to NATO and the EU. He gave the first details at a conference this weekend in Brussels. One thing is certain: The operation will become more American -- and probably bloodier...

Mark
Otawa
 
Interview with our former top civilian at Kandahar--interesting to find this lengthy article in Spiegel Online:

'I See a Positive Trend Line'
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,614972,00.html

Many of the headlines from Afghanistan recently have been negative. But Elissa Golberg, who headed Canadian development efforts in Kandahar for 11 months, remains optimistic. SPIEGEL ONLINE spoke with her about rays of hope and threats to security.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Canada has played a major role in Afghanistan, not least on the battlefield. Just last Friday, four Canadian soldiers were killed in two separate incidents. Does Canada still believe the mission in Afghanistan can be successful?

Elissa Golberg: Obviously we grieve for our colleagues. But we all believe in the mission, which is helping Afghanistan establish a viable and stable country that can deliver basic services to its population. That is the objective. But it's one that takes time and patience...

Mark
Ottawa
 
And her credibility drops to below zero here:

QUESTION:
SPIEGEL ONLINE: President Hamid Karzai himself comes from Kandahar, and his brother Ahmed Wali plays a very strong role there. But what is that role? There have been many claims that he is a major drug trafficker.

ANSWER:
Golberg: Well, Ahmed Wali Karzai is the chair of the provincial council in Kandahar, and he is well respected by members of the community. This council is the only elected body in the province, people bring their concerns to it, and the provincial council of Kandahar is probably one of the most functioning provincial councils that exist. Personally, I've never seen anything that ties him to anything other than a desire to deliver services to the province.

Wow.  Some pretty selective interpretation of information going on there, at best.
A good bunch of questions that were dodged with typical fluff and mirrors.  Somebody has a glowing career in the Parliament ahead. 

 
Always metrics:

General says NATO can't measure Afghan war performance
http://www.iht.com/articles/reuters/2009/03/25/africa/OUKWD-UK-USA-AFGHAN.php

NATO has no reliable way to assess its performance in the war in Afghanistan even as the United States prepares to announce the results of an Afghan strategy review, the alliance's top commander said on Tuesday.

U.S. Army General John Craddock, NATO's supreme allied commander Europe, also told a U.S. Senate panel that some NATO members had the capacity to commit more troops to the war but would not do so for political reasons.

President Barack Obama has said the United States is not winning in Afghanistan, more than seven years after U.S.-led forces toppled the Taliban government. A U.S. official said the strategy review is expected to be made public on Friday.

Craddock said his headquarters had tried to find ways to measure factors, such as security and the effectiveness of Afghan authorities, but the task had proven "overwhelming".

"Right now, our assessments of progress are anecdotal and they vary daily, weekly, with whoever makes the observation and where they are making them," Craddock told a hearing of the Senate Armed Services Committee.

"I could not agree more that we must have objective metrics," he told Senator Ben Nelson, a Democrat who has called for the Obama administration to draw up a series of benchmarks to measure progress in Afghanistan.

"We have to find a metric that tells us whether or not more or less of the country is secure," Craddock said.

"Right now, it's based upon incidents," he said. "Gunfire in a bazaar counts the same as a suicide bomber killing 13 people. That's not correct."

He said NATO should also track whether Afghans thought their local and national governments were a positive factor in their lives and try to measure economic development in what is one of the world's poorest countries.

"The fact of the matter is there are more databases on developmental issues that are not integrated or coordinated than you can shake a stick at," he said. "We've got to bring that together."

RISK AVERSION

The United States has for years called on its NATO partners to provide more troops for the alliance's International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan in a bid to tackle rising violence from the Taliban and other insurgents.

"There is a risk aversion in NATO that we must continue to address, and push nations," Craddock said.

Craddock said he spoke frequently to the top military officers in allied nations about the Afghan mission.

"Generally, they want to contribute. They feel they have the ability, the capability. But politically they are constrained," he said, adding he believed this was because they were constrained by public opposition to the mission [emphasis added]....

As for strategy:

Obama to unveil Afghanistan strategy on Friday
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/090325/n_top_news/cnews_us_usa_afghan_review

Mark
Ottawa
 
A Torch post:

America's war--and Pakistan's; but is it really Obama's?
http://toyoufromfailinghands.blogspot.com/2009/03/americas-war-and-pakistans.html

Plus the final paragraph of a nice overview piece in the Atlantic magazine by Robert D. Kaplan:

Saving Afghanistan
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200903u/saving-afghanistan

“This is not easy shit,” says one American Army colonel. “But what’s the alternative?” That’s why American Brig. Gen. John Nicholson, Jr. says [more on what he said recently about Regional Command South]
http://toyoufromfailinghands.blogspot.com/2009/03/afstan-more-on-us-plans-for-isaf.html
that what is required is “strategic patience [emphasis added].” The U. S. military has already been in Afghanistan half as many years as it was in Vietnam, and with troops pulling out of Iraq and talk of a multi-year hard slog ahead here, Afghanistan is on track to becoming America’s longest war. To that end, significant numbers of American officers and civilian contractors will be embedded in Afghan government ministries [remember the SAT?] for years to come, helping to run things. But does the home front have the stomach for it? Our reaction to the fighting about to unfold this summer will speak volumes.

Sound familiar to Canadians?

Mark
Ottawa
 
But do we really know President Obama's character and the stuff he’s made of? His position on Afstan during the primaries and campaign--stressing Afstan over Iraq--was mainly political. We’ll soon see how tough he is.  A leader in The Economist (usual copyright disclaimer):

Say you're staying, Mr President
Barack Obama needs to act fast to dispel the idea that he is giving up on his “good war”

http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13362871

WHO would have believed, Barack Obama mused on television the other day, “that the least of my problems would be Iraq?” He should hold on to that thought. Iraq’s problems are far from over. But the fact is that a counter-insurgency campaign that looked almost completely unwinnable less than two years ago is now going well enough for America to begin to withdraw without leaving chaos behind. Now, as the president jets off for a series of meetings with America’s allies in Europe, it is Afghanistan that is starting to look unwinnable—and the Europeans, especially those in NATO (see article),
http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13376058
want to know if he will fight on.

His answer to that question should be an emphatic yes that is heard loud and clear not only in Europe but in Afghanistan, Pakistan and the rest of Central Asia as well. This is not because the war is going well or because America or anyone else has a clear idea of how to win it. For a variety of reasons, including too few resources, a mudded strategy and the venality and incompetence of the elected government of Hamid Karzai, the Western effort is in deep trouble. The Taliban insurgency goes from strength to strength, aided immeasurably by the support and sanctuary the insurgents enjoy across the border in Pakistan, and by the chronic weakness of that country’s own feuding and shambolic government. It was entirely honest of Mr Obama to admit in a recent interview that America was “not winning” in Afghanistan, and right for him to order a strategic review from a former CIA official, Bruce Reidel, to avoid the danger of drift.

Lately, however, he has also talked of the need for an exit strategy, and this is a message he needs urgently to modify. Naturally, neither the West nor the Afghans want the Americans to stay indefinitely. But a lot of the people whose hearts and minds the West is trying to win over in Afghanistan will hedge their bets until they are sure the outsiders are staying long enough to be counted on. That’s the way it is with counter-insurgencies. A hint from Mr Obama that he had already lost the stomach for the “good war” he supported so strongly during his presidential campaign would cut the remaining ground from under the government in Kabul, embolden the Taliban and make it even harder for Europeans to keep on putting their soldiers at risk in what voters would see as a failing war.

Whatever tactical recommendations Mr Obama adopts from Mr Reidel’s review, he must therefore take four broad political messages to Europe. These are that Afghanistan is still worth fighting for, that a decent outcome is possible, that America intends to invest the time and resources needed, and that NATO’s European members should continue to help.

Why it is worth fighting

Six years ago a German defence minister, Peter Struck, said his own country’s security was being defended in Afghanistan’s Hindu Kush. It still is. America invaded Afghanistan because its Taliban government let it become the base from which Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda planned their attacks not only on America but on many other places. Al-Qaeda has now been driven into Pakistan, but it would return re-energised the moment the insurgents regained power, which they could well do if NATO fled before building an Afghan government and army capable, like Iraq’s, of standing on its own feet.

Some advocates of leaving say the presence of Western infidels in Afghanistan is so provocative that it makes Pakistan itself likelier to succumb to the jihadists. The opposite is true. America’s bombing raids inside Pakistan probably are counterproductive, and should stop. But giving the jihadists another victory over another superpower would boost their ambitions to the skies, making it even harder for Pakistan to pacify its tribal regions. As for the claim that the Afghans themselves want the Westerners out right away, there is little evidence of this. The ability of jihadists with guns to control territory is no proof of popularity. Not long ago, remember, millions of Afghans voted for the country’s present government and constitution, and for simple rights, such as that of girls to go to school.

In war, of course, victories do not come just by wishing for them. That is why NATO needs to fine-tune its campaign in all sorts of ways. Some of the new ideas look eminently sensible. These include recognising that Afghanistan and Pakistan are a “single theatre”, enlisting help from neighbours (including Iran), ending the uncritical support George Bush gave Mr Karzai, handing a bigger share of combat missions over to a larger Afghan army and reviving the drive for political reconciliation that started after the invasion of 2001 but withered on the vine. However, no strategy will work unless Mr Obama makes it completely plain to both his allies and his enemies that he is not giving up. Victories may not come just by willing them, but prophecies of defeat are often self-fulfilling.

Mark
Ottawa
 
New York Times

March 27, 2009
Obama to Set Benchmarks in Fight Against Militants
By PETER BAKER and THOM SHANKER
WASHINGTON — President Obama plans to further bolster American forces in Afghanistan and for the first time set benchmarks for progress in fighting Al Qaeda and the Taliban there and in Pakistan, the administration told Congressional leaders on Thursday.

In imposing conditions on the Afghans and Pakistanis, Mr. Obama is replicating a strategy used in Iraq two years ago in hopes of justifying a deeper American commitment and prodding the governments in the region to take more responsibility for the political, military and economic missions there.

“The era of the blank check is over,” Mr. Obama told the Congressional leaders at the White House, according to an account of the meeting provided on the condition of anonymity because it was a private session.

The new Obama strategy will send an additional 4,000 troops to train Afghan security forces on top of the 17,000 extra combat and support troops he already ordered to Afghanistan shortly after taking office, according to people who attended the briefing. For now, Mr. Obama has decided not to send more combat troops, although commanders on the ground at one point had requested a total of 30,000 more American troops.

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