On this war, the President should listen to the PM
Lawrence Martin
Globe & Mail
05 March 209
On Afghanistan, where three more Canadian soldiers were killed on Tuesday, you get the feeling that our Prime Minister is being refreshingly candid while Barack Obama, he with the four-square reputation, is playing dangerous games.
Stephen Harper shocked more than a few observers with his recent statement that the Pakistan-abetted Taliban insurgency probably will never be defeated. Leaders seldom, if ever, say this kind of thing when their troops are on the battlefield. Usually, they just raise false hopes.
Mr. Obama is going the surge route in Afghanistan. The first big foreign policy act of his presidency is a major escalation of a war - 17,000 more troops. It makes him sound more like Lyndon Johnson than a peacemaker. And it looks suspiciously like an act of political counterbalance - I've got to look tough - for his planned exit from Iraq.
After you send in the troops, the problem is getting them out.
Presidents don't like to leave without a claim to victory. Otherwise, they fear they'll be seen as sending a message to the world that America is weak.
If Mr. Harper is correct that the insurgency in Afghanistan will always be there, a proclamation of victory by Mr. Obama will not be easy. Complicating his predicament is the planned American departure from Iraq in 2010. Mr. Obama can't be seen as pulling out of two wars. What president has ever done that? Having made this commitment to Afghanistan, there's a good chance Mr. Obama could get bogged down in that war for his entire time in office. He was the candidate of change. On war, his change is an exchange - one battlefield for another.
His upgrading of the war means more crippling budget outlays for defence. With the deficit totally out of control, the new White House team is taking a pass on the one area where it could save the treasury a fortune. It's also taking a pass on sending the world a message that the new administration wants to reverse, not augment, the arms race.
The U.S. has won that race, lapping the field a hundred times over. Its defence budget is now more than that of all the other nations of the world combined. But for Mr. Obama, that still isn't enough. His budget calls for another substantial increase in military spending. He promises a review of some defence programs with the aim of eliminating some of the more useless weapons systems. But even with that, the overall numbers are likely to be up.
The President appears to be on his way to making good progressive changes in other areas of foreign policy, but Afghanistan is vital.
His new troops are being committed even before his administration completes a strategic update on the conflict. Like other presidents, he has the look of being tied (to use yesteryear's phrase) to the military industrial complex. Gotta feed the war machine.
The first George Bush got the wimp tag and, in response, invaded Panama. Ronald Reagan took out puny Grenada, and his ratings soared.
Bill Clinton, needing a distraction from the Monica Lewinsky scandal, sent missiles into Baghdad to change the headlines.
As for Mr. Obama, he should heed Mr. Harper's words. "We're not going to win this war just by staying," the Prime Minister told CNN. "Frankly, we are not going to ever defeat the insurgency." He noted, too, that the foreign presence is engendering much opposition from local Afghans. In that context, how will Mr. Obama's 17,000 new grunts be viewed? Mr. Harper is by no means turning soft on foreign policy. Check his over-the-top sabre-rattling with Russia on what looked like a routine flyby mission near Canadian air space. Check his bellicosity when he accused Iran of being inherently vile, and his silence on the abuses at Guantanamo.
These are ways of feeding his right-wing base. His new take on Afghanistan necessitates that. He's being criticized in some quarters for putting out a defeatist message that demoralizes the troops.
But the troops, you would think, should be able to see the realities for themselves. And so should Barack Obama.