A Deeply Fractured US
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QV
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People would have concerns if:
a. they believe this wasn't a political witch hunt meant to damage a candidate before an election; and
b. the crooked establishment hasn't been doing one form of this or another since 2016.
Establishment credibility is at a very low point. But the round-the-clock negative press on Trump will undoubtable have an impact, will it be enough this time?
Brad Sallows
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For those inclined to whistle past the graveyard, Sean Trende makes some observations here.
"As I read these analyses, I wonder if I’ve somehow been transported back to 2016, when such takes were de rigueur. Here in 2024, we know that Donald Trump won in 2016 and came close to winning in 2020. He carried Republican senators across the finish line in both years, and the GOP gained House seats in 2020, much to the surprise of most election analysts. And, at a comparable time in the campaign cycle when he trailed Hillary Clinton by 4.5 points in the RCP Average and Joe Biden by 5.6 points, Trump actually leads Biden by 1.9 points in national polling."
Talking about the "within margin of error" polling gap as if it is something hopeful to cling to ignores the fact it actually represents a (roughly) 6.5 / 7.5 point advantage over the likely opponent, compared to where Trump stood at this time in 2016 / 2020.
As Trende notes, Trump CAN win irrespective of how much people wish he SHOULD NOT win.
"As I read these analyses, I wonder if I’ve somehow been transported back to 2016, when such takes were de rigueur. Here in 2024, we know that Donald Trump won in 2016 and came close to winning in 2020. He carried Republican senators across the finish line in both years, and the GOP gained House seats in 2020, much to the surprise of most election analysts. And, at a comparable time in the campaign cycle when he trailed Hillary Clinton by 4.5 points in the RCP Average and Joe Biden by 5.6 points, Trump actually leads Biden by 1.9 points in national polling."
Talking about the "within margin of error" polling gap as if it is something hopeful to cling to ignores the fact it actually represents a (roughly) 6.5 / 7.5 point advantage over the likely opponent, compared to where Trump stood at this time in 2016 / 2020.
As Trende notes, Trump CAN win irrespective of how much people wish he SHOULD NOT win.
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If Trump cared about the GOP or America he wouldn't run. He'd let Haley take the nomination, and move forward, but he's a narcissistic lunatic who needs everything to be about him - so he's going to lose as anyone who actually has looked into what he has been charged with knows he's a Treasonous Snake who should be executed not celebrated...
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That’s all well and good, but you’re an American Republican. I thought this thread was for Canadians and their opinions of a foreign leader candidate.
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I still have a Canadian passport tooThat’s all well and good, but you’re an American Republican. I thought this thread was for Canadians and their opinions of a foreign leader candidate.
Brad Sallows
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This thread is actually for observing that the US is "deeply fractured", and understanding the things that make it so. Right now a lot of people approximately have Cersei Lannister's instincts - an unmoderated absolute desire for revenge and dominance that tears down customary boundaries faster than anyone can restore them.That’s all well and good, but you’re an American Republican. I thought this thread was for Canadians and their opinions of a foreign leader candidate.
QV
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I get what you're saying. Buuuut, a large portion of the voting public do not believe the establishment anymore for good reason.
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Because they shouldn't have graduated Grade 3?
J/K
But yeah get it, DJT has done a good job of trying to portray himself as the "everyman" and if he can be attacked so can they, it has worked to such a degree that people literally believe anything he parrots.
Democracy only works if the population makes it work (kind of like marriage or any other relationship). For years America has been indulging in cheap goods from overseas and spending like a drunken sailor on liberty - without any thought to the future. Both parties are to blame for that, as well as anyone who has voted without any thought.
FJAG
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I Know, I know, here's another Hitler analogy but, Hitler wasn't a stupid guy either. He may have been going a bit woozy at the end but that seems to be an affliction striking several leaders including Putin. The problem is that being smart isn't enough by itself. The people that are around you that advise you and implement your actions matter much more. There clearly seems to be a significant breakdown in the info flow going to Putin about the state of the RAF, its capabilities and the expected Ukrainian resistance in 2022. There are still ample forces facing the Baltic states. Add to that the fact that Trump has zero education in politics and international relations and shoots off the cuff from gut reactions. Even smart guys (and I'd argue that Trump is actually smart - manipulative yes - but smart; no)
All it takes is enough generals to feel that a probe, move on the Baltics would create a difficult two-front war for NATO to manage and off you go. I agree that this isn't realistic but its one of those non-zero possibility options that one simply can't dismiss out of hand.
I feel much of what went through Trump's head were individual advisers such as Miller and Bannon who have very extreme views of the way governments ought to function. Couple that with family neophytes and there was a strong cabal that frequently drowned out the reasonable voices in the room. And there were some very reasonable people in the room, almost all of which by now have voiced their frustration in working in the Trump White House.
True enough for both sides. Personally I don't believe anything about what Trump has said until I see a video of him saying it. Sometimes context matters but most of his ramblings are clear enough by themselves. I disagree entirely that those messages are just for his base. At least, I'd argue that many more people than just his base, take him at his word. A truly smart politician would consider second and third order effects of what he says. Assuming Trump is really just aiming at his base then he is very careless in what he says - that should worry people.
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GR66
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The military threat to NATO from Russia/Putin doesn't have to be immediate or direct.
There are signs that the Russian Army is slowly but surely improving its effectiveness and finding ways to push gains against Ukraine. Russia has a larger population and greater industrial potential that Ukraine.
European NATO has already given much of their available equipment and there are signs that US support may begin to taper off. That could be magnified if the US faces increasing pressures in the Middle East and/or the Far East. It's not impossible to imagine a scenario where an improved Russian Army gains momentum against a support starved Ukraine. It wouldn't have to be a blitzkrieg type advance but even a slow, steady advance across a broad front could result in a political collapse.
Would the US under a Trump presidency intervene? Would European NATO countries like Poland intervene unilaterally without US support? With a pro-Russian government inKyiv Kiev suddenly Poland has doubled the length of its border facing Russia/Belarus/Kaliningrad.
With Ukraine in Russian control might Putin next take non-NATO Moldova? Would the US or NATO intervene there when they wouldn't intervene directly in Ukraine?
Where would that leave Romania? Surrounded on three sides by pro-Russian Moldova, Ukraine, Hungary and Serbia. Absent the promise of US support might Romania decide it's better to declare neutrality and leave NATO rather than face pressure on all sides? Other than through Hungary NATO would have to go through Russian-held Ukraine, NATO member but pro-Russia Hungary or through pro-Russian Serbia to support Romania.
Now add in Russian agitation of the significant ethnic Russian minorities in the Baltic and you could end up with the type of domestic unrest that NATO's conventional military forces aren't well equipped to handle. Do you think Canadian (or Spanish, etc.) NATO soldiers would relish the idea of putting down pro-Russian Latvian protesters?
Throw in a US distracted by a Chinese attack on Taiwan and you could possibly imagine Russian "peace keepers" moving into portions of the Baltic States to protect the ethnic Russian majorities being suppressed by their oppressive governments and maybe move in to secure a widened Suwalki Gap to Kaliningrad in order to protect their enclave from the "growing unrest" in the Baltic States. If NATO failed to respond then what's left of the Baltic States might second guess their alliance and seek peace with Russia.
I'm not saying that any of this is likely to happen but I'd also say it's not outside the realm of possibility and that possibility in my mind is greater the weaker NATO solidarity becomes.
There are signs that the Russian Army is slowly but surely improving its effectiveness and finding ways to push gains against Ukraine. Russia has a larger population and greater industrial potential that Ukraine.
European NATO has already given much of their available equipment and there are signs that US support may begin to taper off. That could be magnified if the US faces increasing pressures in the Middle East and/or the Far East. It's not impossible to imagine a scenario where an improved Russian Army gains momentum against a support starved Ukraine. It wouldn't have to be a blitzkrieg type advance but even a slow, steady advance across a broad front could result in a political collapse.
Would the US under a Trump presidency intervene? Would European NATO countries like Poland intervene unilaterally without US support? With a pro-Russian government in
With Ukraine in Russian control might Putin next take non-NATO Moldova? Would the US or NATO intervene there when they wouldn't intervene directly in Ukraine?
Where would that leave Romania? Surrounded on three sides by pro-Russian Moldova, Ukraine, Hungary and Serbia. Absent the promise of US support might Romania decide it's better to declare neutrality and leave NATO rather than face pressure on all sides? Other than through Hungary NATO would have to go through Russian-held Ukraine, NATO member but pro-Russia Hungary or through pro-Russian Serbia to support Romania.
Now add in Russian agitation of the significant ethnic Russian minorities in the Baltic and you could end up with the type of domestic unrest that NATO's conventional military forces aren't well equipped to handle. Do you think Canadian (or Spanish, etc.) NATO soldiers would relish the idea of putting down pro-Russian Latvian protesters?
Throw in a US distracted by a Chinese attack on Taiwan and you could possibly imagine Russian "peace keepers" moving into portions of the Baltic States to protect the ethnic Russian majorities being suppressed by their oppressive governments and maybe move in to secure a widened Suwalki Gap to Kaliningrad in order to protect their enclave from the "growing unrest" in the Baltic States. If NATO failed to respond then what's left of the Baltic States might second guess their alliance and seek peace with Russia.
I'm not saying that any of this is likely to happen but I'd also say it's not outside the realm of possibility and that possibility in my mind is greater the weaker NATO solidarity becomes.
Brad Sallows
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It took Russia most of a decade to take the next bite after Crimea. Having failed in the initial lunge, I doubt Russia is going to get more than the bite it approximately already has, this time around. There'll be years for Europeans to sort out how they want to prepare for the next bite; if they're too stupid to prepare adequately, I'm disinclined to come to their rescue. The economic power of western Europe dwarfs Russia.
Brad Sallows
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Trigger warning for the local Media Home Guard here: Byron York writes right-wing opinions, and the Washington Examiner publishes right-wing opinions.
Trump, NATO, and The Media.
The gist is that much of the media refuses to give any publicity to Trump, except when he says something outrageous, so he says outrageous things and is rewarded with media coverage. (I doubt Trump needs the excuse, but the effect is the same.)
"Many news organizations have imposed a virtual blackout on his appearances. As a rule, they don’t broadcast Trump’s speeches live and often never report on them at all, even if a particular speech is newsworthy."
"The blackout has created a perverse incentive for the former president. If Trump says something outrageous from the podium, the news organizations will drop their bans and play that portion of the speech for the purpose of fact-checking and denouncing it. They then hold panel discussions on how terrible Trump is. If, on the other hand, Trump does not say something sufficiently outrageous — crickets. So the way for Trump to win coverage, indeed, to dominate coverage on the networks that have blacked him out is to say something outrageous enough for them to put him on the air."
Trump, NATO, and The Media.
The gist is that much of the media refuses to give any publicity to Trump, except when he says something outrageous, so he says outrageous things and is rewarded with media coverage. (I doubt Trump needs the excuse, but the effect is the same.)
"Many news organizations have imposed a virtual blackout on his appearances. As a rule, they don’t broadcast Trump’s speeches live and often never report on them at all, even if a particular speech is newsworthy."
"The blackout has created a perverse incentive for the former president. If Trump says something outrageous from the podium, the news organizations will drop their bans and play that portion of the speech for the purpose of fact-checking and denouncing it. They then hold panel discussions on how terrible Trump is. If, on the other hand, Trump does not say something sufficiently outrageous — crickets. So the way for Trump to win coverage, indeed, to dominate coverage on the networks that have blacked him out is to say something outrageous enough for them to put him on the air."
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Avenue of exploration - What if the EU were more like Finland?
| EU | Finland | |
| Population | 448,000,000 | 5,500,000 |
| Military Males | 91,000,000 | 1,100,000 |
| Forces - Reserve | 71,972,727 | 870,000 |
| Forces - Wartime | 23,163,636 | 280,000 |
| Forces - Active | 1,985,455 | 24,000 |
| GDP BUSD | $ 16,763 | $ 282 |
| Multiplier | 59 | |
| Fighters | 3,776 | 64 |
| Missile Launchers | 4,484 | 76 |
| Howitzers | 11,918 | 202 |
| Mortars | 85,373 | 1447 |
| Tanks | 5,900 | 100 |
| IFVs | 5,900 | 100 |
| APCs | 44,958 | 762 |
I reckon that Vlad would be given pause....
FJAG
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I don't think that he has ever made any bones about that first and foremost he's a comedian and satirist . . . a very smart and insightful comedian/satirist.
The Republicans are gonna look like a dog humping a football during the senate trial. His job is not in danger.
kkwd
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Maybe, but much negative info will come out about the Biden administration.
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