FSTO
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I remember slaughtering pigs, chickens and cattle on the farm. Probably why I've never suffered from food poisoning.
2022 CPC Leadership Discussion: Et tu Redeux
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I remember slaughtering pigs, chickens and cattle on the farm. Probably why I've never suffered from food poisoning.
Conservative Party Sees Seven-Point Decline: The Harris Effect?
[Ottawa – August 21, 2024] The Conservative Party has enjoyed a profound advantage in federal vote intention since Pierre Poilievre assumed leadership. Over the past year, this advantage has been i…
www.ekospolitics.com
From that poll, it looks like the 24 point lead is now 14 points, mostly because of women expressing less support for CPC and more to NDP.
The timeframe tracks with Biden stepping down.
A friend of mine sent me something similar and I think it tracks with what we are seeing in the US and it seeping here…Conservative Party Sees Seven-Point Decline: The Harris Effect?
[Ottawa – August 21, 2024] The Conservative Party has enjoyed a profound advantage in federal vote intention since Pierre Poilievre assumed leadership. Over the past year, this advantage has been i…www.ekospolitics.com
From that poll, it looks like the 24 point lead is now 14 points, mostly because of women expressing less support for CPC and more to NDP.
The timeframe tracks with Biden stepping down.
I didn’t really bother posting it here because it was one poll.
Sure, one datapoint doesn’t really mean much, and I always say never to trust polls by themselves.
I’m just surprised that there has been a poll suggesting a pretty big trend reversal.
And it’s apparently been tracking that way for two weeks. The effect on the aggregate 338 shows a slight change but still well within majority territory for the CPC. I’ll be curious to see how much a few weeks of US elections could impact this if any.
Edit: Note that it was this time last year the CPC reversed a trend in their favour.
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If the votes are going towards the NDP, up to a certain point, it favours the CPC.
It splits the vote in close ridings, allowing the Conservatives to come up the middle. In other ridings, they just out/out replace the Liberals, putting them into official opposition.
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There could be a number of factors. Late summer is vacation time and most people have zero time or inclination to worry about politics. There's still a long way to go. PP has a good team and they have lots of cash. If they see something untoward, they have time to switch gears and correct course. I'm not a big believer in polls. They are just a snapshot of a point in the past and very poor predictors of the future.
Some Ekos history.
A Maclean's analysis found EKOS' polling for the 2019 Canadian federal election did not meet the accuracy standard of the top 5 Canadian polling firms (Forum Research, Mainstreet Research, Nanos Research, Ipsos-Reid, and Léger/Innovative).<a href="Ekos Research Associates - Wikipedia"><span>[</span>5<span>]</span></a>
Some Ekos history.
A Maclean's analysis found EKOS' polling for the 2019 Canadian federal election did not meet the accuracy standard of the top 5 Canadian polling firms (Forum Research, Mainstreet Research, Nanos Research, Ipsos-Reid, and Léger/Innovative).<a href="Ekos Research Associates - Wikipedia"><span>[</span>5<span>]</span></a>
Halifax Tar
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Conservative Party Sees Seven-Point Decline: The Harris Effect?
[Ottawa – August 21, 2024] The Conservative Party has enjoyed a profound advantage in federal vote intention since Pierre Poilievre assumed leadership. Over the past year, this advantage has been i…www.ekospolitics.com
From that poll, it looks like the 24 point lead is now 14 points, mostly because of women expressing less support for CPC and more to NDP.
The timeframe tracks with Biden stepping down.
It's crazy how US Politics affects ours eh ?
The CPC are still very comfortably in safe territory. It was never realistic to think they would keep that strong an advantage in the polls indefinitely; there’s always going to be some reversion to the mean. There would have to be some really major upset or a prolonged and sustained reversal in sentiment for them to have anything to worry about.
The CPC’s biggest challenge in order to sustain the advantage will be to improve the efficiency of their support. LPC are very good at ‘good enough to get the seat’ whereas CPC support will be heavily overweight in some areas at the expense of others. The liberals typically make each percentage of popular support go father due to how FPTP plays out for them. Poilievre needs to focus on keeping enough of the support he’s aimed at the ridings that are in contention rather than falling back on messaging to a base he already has locked down.
The CPC’s biggest challenge in order to sustain the advantage will be to improve the efficiency of their support. LPC are very good at ‘good enough to get the seat’ whereas CPC support will be heavily overweight in some areas at the expense of others. The liberals typically make each percentage of popular support go father due to how FPTP plays out for them. Poilievre needs to focus on keeping enough of the support he’s aimed at the ridings that are in contention rather than falling back on messaging to a base he already has locked down.
Something something sleeping next to an elephant…
Haggis
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Illustrative of what I've said before about a lack of discipline and consistent, coherent messaging within the CPC since 2015. This also shows how a Trump win will not favour PP.
Yes, it's one instance....so far.
Tory MP deletes post that cost of living is driving parents to traffic kids - National | Globalnews.ca
In the now-deleted post shared on Aug. 16, MP Michelle Ferreri said there has been a rise in human trafficking and domestic violence and tied those trends to affordability.
globalnews.ca
lenaitch
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Her post post was "inartfully worded". So will a future post be more 'artfully worded'? They said CoL and "a wide array of social problems" are not an "excuse for human trafficking". It sounds like they still thinks more parents are pimping out their kids because of current government policies.Tory MP deletes post that cost of living is driving parents to traffic kids - National | Globalnews.ca
In the now-deleted post shared on Aug. 16, MP Michelle Ferreri said there has been a rise in human trafficking and domestic violence and tied those trends to affordability.
Notice that she didn’t say she was wrong.
lenaitch
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Exactly my point. Then again, what politician ever does.
In fairness, the Sexual Assault Centre says the issue exists but is not new.
It’s not common but it happens.
The CPC video (which was taken down) had someone apologizing for it. Not a politician per se, but at least it a was a public acknowledgement.
FSTO
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62 years of cynicism on my part. I now want results and not promises.
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I have to say I'm surprised at this. I listened to Jenni Byrne a fair bit on a podcast where she'd spar off against Team Red & Team Orange former operators and she sounded smart and sincerely in line with Team Blue's approach. She didn't strike me as someone who'd let this happen, so barring other instances down the road, I'll take this as a "holy f**k" moment.
That said, I'm not a sports fan, but if you look at this sort of "signalling" or "mimicking" thing from a tribal perspective -- wanting to show that you're "part of the team" or "part of the action" in some way -- how different are these .....
... from these?
At one level ....
Optimists might say it's just wanting to feel like a part of the bigger-than-me experience that politics & sports can be - just a bit of fun.
Pessimists might say it's an outer manifestation of the inner acceptance of and integration with the bigger-than-me being that is the team/the party/tribe - for better, or worse.
You be the judge ...
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FSTO
Army.ca Fixture
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Not political, but I had to correct RCN PA on a couple of graphics that they were going to use but were totally the wrong ones to be using. The designers were 20 somethings and didn't know that they were going to embarrass themselves and the RCN.
Shit happens and its up to more seasoned people to keep and eye out for the potholes.
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