2022 CPC Leadership Discussion: Et tu Redeux

[Brad Sallows]

Bear in mind that conservatives in Canada have always been able to raise substantial amounts of money with small donations, compared to the other parties. I'd expect to see that kind of modest commitment to show up in other ways - like attending party events. A crowd can't be extrapolated to the general election voters.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

Bear in mind that conservatives in Canada have always been able to raise substantial amounts of money with small donations, compared to the other parties. I'd expect to see that kind of modest commitment to show up in other ways - like attending party events. A crowd can't be extrapolated to the general election voters.

No it cannot. I just thought it interesting that conservatives could even raise that kind of a crowd, that close to Victoria.

 

[Halifax Tar]

No it cannot. I just thought it interesting that conservatives could even raise that kind of a crowd, that close to Victoria.

That is a eyebrow raiser...

I wonder if they got lost while too high on shrooms ?

 

[Brad Sallows]

Probably more elderly people than flower people on the peninsula. Most of the flower people homesteaded on the islands.

 

[RangerRay]

No it cannot. I just thought it interesting that conservatives could even raise that kind of a crowd, that close to Victoria.

That riding used to be a solid Reform riding, prior to Lizzy May showing up with the Let’s-Get-Liz-Elected Party…I mean the Green Party.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

That riding used to be a solid Reform riding, prior to Lizzy May showing up with the Let’s-Get-Liz-Elected Party…I mean the Green Party.

No- it was never Reform. It was solidly Conservative until Lizzie May. My guess is it will go back Conservative, once she retires.

 

[RangerRay]

No- it was never Reform. It was solidly Conservative until Lizzie May. My guess is it will go back Conservative, once she retires.

It was Reform/Canadian Alliance from 1993-2003, then Tory until 2011.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saanich—Gulf_Islands

I agree with you about the Tories winning it back after the Liberals make May a Senator.

 

[OldSolduer]

That riding used to be a solid Reform riding, prior to Lizzy May aka "drunk LizzY" showing up with the Let’s-Get-Liz-Elected Party…I mean the Green Party.

FTFY

 

[Good2Golf]

I agree with you about the Tories winning it back after the Liberals make May a Senator.

FFS Ray, stop doing stuff like that to us!

 

[RangerRay]

FFS Ray, stop doing stuff like that to us!

Just you wait. Some future or present Liberal PM will make her a Senator. A just reward for all her hard work running interference for the Liberals!

 

[SeaKingTacco]

FFS Ray, stop doing stuff like that to us!

I would say he is right. The Liberals will stuff Lizzie in the Senate, as soon as they figure she no longer suits their purposes in the HoC. She either can’t see, or doesn’t care, that she is a fully owned subsidiary of the LPC.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

It was Reform/Canadian Alliance from 1993-2003, then Tory until 2011.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saanich—Gulf_Islands

I agree with you about the Tories winning it back after the Liberals make May a Senator.

Sorry about that Ray- I only remember back as far as the Conservative days. Mea Culpa.

 

[RangerRay]

Sorry about that Ray- I only remember back as far as the Conservative days. Mea Culpa.

No worries

 

[Remius]

Compared to last three Conservative leaders, Poilievre in more favourable political environment to unseat Trudeau, but still has 'a hell of a fight ahead,’ say veteran political players

Pierre Poilievre’s leadership has not been tested in a general election, so it’s too early to conclude that he’s ‘the best challenger Trudeau has faced,’ says Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Pubic Affairs.

www.hilltimes.com

This is a pretty good opinion piece on a possible election.

 

[ArmyRick]

I would say he is right. The Liberals will stuff Lizzie in the Senate, as soon as they figure she no longer suits their purposes in the HoC. She either can’t see, or doesn’t care, that she is a fully owned subsidiary of the LPC.

She aint the only one. Jagmeet is playing nice until his Calendar tells him "pension earned" then I expect him to totally turn on Trudeau. or He outright retires.

 

[QV]

Compared to last three Conservative leaders, Poilievre in more favourable political environment to unseat Trudeau, but still has 'a hell of a fight ahead,’ say veteran political players

Pierre Poilievre’s leadership has not been tested in a general election, so it’s too early to conclude that he’s ‘the best challenger Trudeau has faced,’ says Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Pubic Affairs.

www.hilltimes.com

This is a pretty good opinion piece on a possible election.

Trudeau has an impressive record of defeating a very competent sitting PM and two promising opposition leaders in general elections, which is surprising considering his obvious shortcomings.

Now considering the CCP interference that took place over the last several years one must ask themselves how could Trudeau have really faired? He has had several scandals that which only one would typically result in the downfall of politicians in the past... yet he survives?

I don't think it is possible to accurately measure the effect CCP interference had on the last few election outcomes. It's far more than funding to a candidate here or there, it's also MSM and social media campaigns and way beyond. It's just not measurable, but should be considered a significant threat to election integrity. Reminder: Team Trudeau knew, kept it quiet, and did nothing.

PP will have a steep uphill battle to win against the CCP backed Trudeau team. Especially if the government can now sensor the internet and media for content ahead of the next election.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Trudeau has an impressive record of defeating a very competent sitting PM and two promising opposition leaders in general elections, which is surprising considering his obvious shortcomings.

Now considering the CCP interference that took place over the last several years one must ask themselves how could Trudeau have really faired? He has had several scandals that which only one would typically result in the downfall of politicians in the past... yet he survives?

I don't think it is possible to accurately measure the effect CCP interference had on the last few election outcomes. It's far more than funding to a candidate here or there, it's also MSM and social media campaigns and way beyond. It's just not measurable, but should be considered a significant threat to election integrity. Reminder: Team Trudeau knew, kept it quiet, and did nothing.

PP will have a steep uphill battle to win against the CCP backed Trudeau team. Especially if the government can now sensor the internet and media for content ahead of the next election.

I can imagine that a CPC victory in the next election will lead to a constant barrage of CCP/LPC attacks at every turn.

I imagine that a minority CPC will either not even get to form a Gov or wont last long, and a majority will simply be attacked left, right and centre by the CCP/LPC machine and really be ineffective.

 

[Remius]

Conservatives don’t survive their missteps as well as the LPC is the jist. The last para of the article sums it up well. Some people think they will vote against the incumbent and switch at the last minute, cold feet or whatever.

Harper lost because his run was ending. And he was unpopular by then. This is the same situation Trudeau finds himself in.

It’s quite possible that an election won’t be called until after the economy starts to recover in which case that won’t be on people’s minds as much as it is now. And I doubt the NDP will engineer a fall any time soon.

 

[brihard]

Conservatives don’t survive their missteps as well as the LPC is the jist. The last para of the article sums it up well. Some people think they will vote against the incumbent and switch at the last minute, cold feet or whatever.

Harper lost because his run was ending. And he was unpopular by then. This is the same situation Trudeau finds himself in.

It’s quite possible that an election won’t be called until after the economy starts to recover in which case that won’t be on people’s minds as much as it is now. And I doubt the NDP will engineer a fall any time soon.

NDP are in their best possible strategic position already. LPC don’t stand to gain from an election now. Only way I could see the NDP withdrawing support and allowing an election would be if they saw the opportunity to extend their current status quo considerably. Given the real prospect of a CPC win, I can’t see the NDP agreeing to torpedo the government and trigger an election.

We’ll see an election when one of three things happens:
1. The current term expires;
2. The NDP can no longer parlay support of the LPC into legislative success AND they think their position would be improved by a new government;
3. The Liberals regain sufficient popularity that the NDP can allow an election to deliver substantially the same status quo we have now, extending their position as ‘kingmaker’.

Further complicating all of this is the respective parties’ financial capacity to fund an election campaign. I can’t gauge that.

I think we’re in for at least another year of the status quo if not more. LPC won’t chance an ‘election-to-extend-minority’ if there’s a realistic chance of an outright loss.

 

[Halifax Tar]

NDP are in their best possible strategic position already. LPC don’t stand to gain from an election now. Only way I could see the NDP withdrawing support and allowing an election would be if they saw the opportunity to extend their current status quo considerably. Given the real prospect of a CPC win, I can’t see the NDP agreeing to torpedo the government and trigger an election.

We’ll see an election when one of three things happens:
1. The current term expires;
2. The NDP can no longer parlay support of the LPC into legislative success AND they think their position would be improved by a new government;
3. The Liberals regain sufficient popularity that the NDP can allow an election to deliver substantially the same status quo we have now, extending their position as ‘kingmaker’.

Further complicating all of this is the respective parties’ financial capacity to fund an election campaign. I can’t gauge that.

I think we’re in for at least another year of the status quo if not more. LPC won’t chance an ‘election-to-extend-minority’ if there’s a realistic chance of an outright loss.

My understanding is the Fed NDP are broke. They don't want an election either. I mean they are getting what they want now for none of the hassle of actually having to be the sitting Gov.

Policy wise, they've also been left flanked by the LPC and really are lacking raison d'etre at the moment on the Canadian political landscape. Its a smart move by the LPC as they could see the NDP was syphoning off votes. So, forced merger it is.

My next election prediction is:

Weak CPC minority
LPC/NDP/Greens form a coalition
LPC/NDP/Greens form a coalition Gov
CPC/Western heads explode
Western separation movement out paces the Quebec version

I really don't think a CPC majority is in the realm of reality ATM.