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Theater & Continental Balistic Missile Defence . . . and Canada

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Quote,
To support my points, a 1997 BMDO Report to Congress,

Just open your new "Audiotronic" flyer and wonder what the same report would have to say about your home video camera recording directly to DVD, things are changing way too fast in electronics/ etc for a 7 year old report to mean anything.
 
Bruce Monkhouse said:
Quote,
To support my points, a 1997 BMDO Report to Congress,

Just open your new "Audiotronic" flyer and wonder what the same report would have to say about your home video camera recording directly to DVD, things are changing way too fast in electronics/ etc for a 7 year old report to mean anything.

Point well taken- do you believe that the legitimacy of that statement has changed?  Besides North Korea, I'm unsure if there is another country that can pose a ballistic missile threat.  Insurgence groups (read terrorists) can have an argument made for them in that respect- i.e. the hijacking of a nuclear power's launch capabilities.  Do you believe that to be a valid therat?
 
TA said:
Point well taken- do you believe that the legitimacy of that statement has changed?   Besides North Korea, I'm unsure if there is another country that can pose a ballistic missile threat.   Insurgence groups (read terrorists) can have an argument made for them in that respect- i.e. the hijacking of a nuclear power's launch capabilities.   Do you believe that to be a valid therat?

Well I would be willing to put money on the fact that if we said "it couldnt happen" it will happen and soon.
 
I really don't know enough about how they are protected to answer that,[ I'm sure others can wade in here] I sure that if it were ever to happen or be attempted,  it would be from a "group" rather than a country. In all honesty  you would have to know that it would be a suicide attack and sadly we have people willing to do that.
 
TA said:
Point well taken- do you believe that the legitimacy of that statement has changed?   Besides North Korea, I'm unsure if there is another country that can pose a ballistic missile threat.   Insurgence groups (read terrorists) can have an argument made for them in that respect- i.e. the hijacking of a nuclear power's launch capabilities.   Do you believe that to be a valid therat?


Maybe eventually some will provide a threat, but perhaps the solution is political? For example, don't create an arms race?

No one in their right mind would nuke anyone, and North Korea is (as was previously mentioned) not capable yet of even hitting most of the continental United States with their measely number of nukes.

Of course I wouldn't trust Russia or China, but what do they have to gain by nuking anyone?
 
Aaron White said:
Right but as has been pointed out in other threads. This isnt politics.ca- and you have no interest in talking about the military but only about your perverted view of American society.

And how is this not the right thread?   Every thread you are involved in is about how you dont like the U.S.

We have a vested interest in defence of our entire continent. Not to mention we should be interested in being a partner with the Americans who are the nation who is most similar to our own. Anytime they fail, we, western society fail.


1. This is the political section, which is a big part of military planning.

2. It's not the thread I posted those links in--the thread on NORTHCOMM is the thread I posted those link in.

3. It's America's job to defend themselves.

4. Saying western society fails when they fail would sound strange to someone in Norway or Sweden right now.
 
Disillusioned said:
4. Saying western society fails when they fail would sound strange to someone in Norway or Sweden right now.

I can imagine what is sounds like to Ukraine right about now. How about Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, etc.?
 
Many posts have articulated BMD will not work, may create an arms race, and is unnecessary because
the US maintains detente with its traditional "semi-friends".  Given the realities of the world
(as terrorist organizations and some governments are not likely to follow the rules of detente) and
advancements of technology and sensing by various governments, does this mean methods of national
or continental defense should stagnate or remain as it is indefinitely? 

By employing a method that went under or around military defences, Al-Qaeda was successful in
attacking the continental US and manipulating the US into a heavier conflict in the Muslim world.
Not too much different from Pearl Harbor.  From the points of view of Al-Qaeda, the USA, and affected
countries, there were intended and unintended consequences from that point on.

The traditional "semi-friends" work within the boundaries of detente so far.  It is doubtful
terrorist organizations and those they could coherce are able to destroy the US, yet their intention
may be to hurt or cause the US/allies to be imbroiled in a larger conflict thus affecting others like
Canada.  Arms races have been occuring for the lat 65 milliion years and will continue whether a
BMD is deployed or not.

Fast, stealthy, and covert methods are effectively used by terrorists and/or those seeking the
best entry through a NORAD defence.  BMD may be an awknowedgement this situation exists
at some level and provides a sizable counter-method.  If you leave a door open in a neighborhood
of unfriendlies, someone just might walk in.

 
Disillusioned said:
1. This is the political section, which is a big part of military planning.

2. It's not the thread I posted those links in--the thread on NORTHCOMM is the thread I posted those link in.

3. It's America's job to defend themselves.

4. Saying western society fails when they fail would sound strange to someone in Norway or Sweden right now.

3. And its Canada's to defend itself.But we'd be up shites creek without a paddle if it wasnt for the US defending us. We certainly cant defend ourselves at our present capabilities.

4. I dont believe I have anything in common with the people of europe. My political views most certainly dont fall anywhere near theres. I believe that we on this continent need to look out for each other. Whether you like it or not. Ive lived in both of these countries and I have family in both. Whether you like it or not "disillusioned" you could be picked up and tossed into most states and not miss a beat. Life would be exactly the same- except people would think you were an elitist prick because you think our "way" is so much more superior.

You couldnt move to europe with such ease. I lived in Europe as well. It is a far cry from how we live over here.

That being said- I do have faith in the BMD. It needs to be advanced as with any new technology. I think we should be aiming for a "total defence" instead of just looking for what the immediate threat is. And then changing every 10 years....
 
Yes, this is the Political section of Army.ca, and the United States has made a political decision to attempt to defend their homeland. BMD is perhaps the most visible and expensive portion of the job, but other measures such as the "USA Patriot act" and refurbishing the US Coast Guard are also happening in an attempt to counter threats from all ends of the spectrum.

We also need to make a political decision, which can be roughly stated as "Put up or Shut up". You might think of a more nuanced expression, but Canada must recognise the reality that the United States is serious about protecting their homeland, and decide to either cooperate on the best terms possible for us (moving into a continental perimeter with significant Canadian input into the decision making process), or turn our backs to their concerns, and accept consequences ranging from lessened access to the US for business and pleasure (imagine going to the US consulate 6 to 8 months in advance for a Visa so you and your family can visit Disneyland), to physical harm coming to Canada (BMD intercepts happening over Canadian territory, or US forces moving in "Hot Persuit" of fleeing terrorists into Canada).

If we decide not to go in, then it must be an informed decision, with all the potential risks and benefits laid out on the table. I have done the best risk/benefit analysis I can with open source information, and as you can see from my posts the answer I keep coming up with is "yes".
 
Disillusioned said:
The U.S. is the only nation to ever use nuclear weapons, and they continue to use illegal depleted uranium in Iraq.

Whattamaroon.  Listen, I don't particularily care what the UN says about DU, there's nothing illegal about it.  Nor does it have anything to do with nuclear weapons, so please, don't put them together in the same sentence.  It only demonstrates your complete ignorance on the subject.

There is a lot of information available already. Different isotopes of uranium have exactly the same chemical and biological behaviour, which is why chemical methods cannot be used to separate them to produce enriched uranium. Therefore the chemical toxicity of DU is the same as that of natural uranium. The radiological toxicity of DU is lower than that of natural uranium, because the specific activity is lower. When uranium went into large-scale production to produce reactor fuel, the possible chemical and radiological hazards were recognised. Animal experiments were carried out to investigate them. These experiments (mostly carried out many years ago) showed that if the exposure was high enough, the most likely effect was damage to the kidneys.

Estimates of the risks associated with exposure to ionising radiation are based mainly on studies of people who were exposed to high levels of radiation. The most important study is that of the survivors of the atom bomb attacks on Japan, because this is a large group, including all ages, a wide range of doses, and the whole body was irradiated. Furthermore, the health of these survivors has been studied over several decades. However, studies on various other groups of patients and workers, and results of animal experiments, are also used in assessing radiation risks. These include internal as well as external exposures. In particular, bone cancers were seen in workers who ingested large amounts of radium while applying luminous paint to dials in the early part of the 20th century. Radium deposits in bone in a similar way to uranium, but has a far higher specific activity, and so ingestion of relatively small amounts can give high doses to bone. Using all this information, the risk of cancer from any radiation exposure (external or internal) is estimated from the amount and type of radiation each organ receives (per unit mass). Excess radiation-induced cancers cannot be seen at very low doses either in human studies or animal experiments, because the excess at low doses is small, and the same types of cancers occur naturally. For radiation protection purposes it is generally assumed that the risk of cancer is proportional to the radiation dose: if the dose is halved, the risk is halved. Some scientists believe that there is a threshold for radiation effects, partly because life evolved in a radioactive environment, and so it is reasonable to expect that at low doses the body would repair any radiation damage. NRPB, however, supports use of the assumption that all radiation doses, however small, carry some additional risk, which is proportional to dose.

An exception to the standard dosimetric approach to assessing radiation risks is made in the case of radon, a radioactive gas, which for most of the population gives rise to about half the dose from natural background radiation. A clear excess of lung cancers, which increases with increasing exposure to radon, is seen in groups of miners who were exposed to high levels of radon. Risks from radon are based on the excess lung cancers in these miners, because the comparison is more direct than the standard approach, which predicts rather more cancers than are seen in the miners, i.e. it seems to somewhat overestimate the risk in this case. Risks from radon at lower levels are again based on the assumption that the risk is proportional to the exposure.

Many thousands of workers have also been exposed to uranium compounds over many years, through the processing of uranium from the ore to the production of fuel elements. Studies have been carried out on the health of such workers. While some studies have reported excesses of cancers, unlike the miners, no clear excess of any cancer related to increased exposure has been demonstrated. The only clear finding is a 'healthy worker effect'; mortality is lower than in the general population. This is expected in such workforces, because of selection for employment, and the benefits of a regular income.

Take from that what you will.  If, after reading this, you continue to post about DU as if it were a weapon of mass murder, I'll know that your ramblings have nothing to do with ignorance and everything to do with your hate for the US.
 
For anyone who's confused and thinks that missile defense is a new idea, you may want to take a look at this:

http://cndyorks.gn.apc.org/yspace/articles/bmd/nucleairnterceptors.htm

here's a small excert:

The Pentagon experimented with nuclear-armed interceptors in the 1950s and 1960s and, for a short time in the mid-1970s, deployed an anti-missile system that relied on them. But the notion of nuclear explosions going off high overhead to block incoming missiles proved unsettling for many people. And the prospect that ionized clouds and electromagnetic shock waves associated with the explosions could end up blinding radar on the ground and scrambling electronic equipment eventually helped kill the plan.

    Frankly, I think that at this point nuclear payload interceptors are one of the few feasable options.  They gaurantee the ability to knock down an incoming ICBM without the need for pinpoint accuracy.  Back when they were first experimented with, the palyoads neccesary were fairly large so that damage caused by the interceptor going off would still have been considerable, although still far less than the damage which would result if the incoming missile detonated instead.  However, guidance systems these days are much more accurate, meaning that the payload required may be no larger than 10 kilotons.  Very VERY low collateral damage and much more chance of success.    Anyone have any idea why both the US and USSR stopped making these?  And why they're not being considered for the newest incarnation of the BMD shield?
 
I have little data on the former USSR's "Galosh" BMD system, but given the lower efficiency of Soviet era electronics, I would expect it was a nuclear system like "Safeguard". The main reasons nuclear BMD is not considered an option is mostly political, no one wants more Nukes, especially nuclear armed ABMs exploding overhead. (Russia may still use Galosh, simply because they have nothing better)

The technical reasons for avoiding nuclear explosions in the upper atmosphere are still valid, as well, there are hundreds of satellites in orbit which would be knocked out by EMP, causing grave damage to the world economy.

Hit to Kill makes sense in theory, needing the smallest interceptor and causing the least collateral damage. I suspect the "real thing" may actually resemble a bucket of sand, which is guided towards the target and "burst" in front of it. The closing speed would be about Mach 40, so even a grain of sand will pack enough kinetic energy to do some serious damage. BMD is a multi-layer system, though, with US warships capable of launching interceptors against missiles in the boost stage, and follow on BMD systems designed to hunt cold warheads during mid course intercept missions, and airborn lasers mounted on 747s to track and kill boosters or cruise missiles...We are only seeing the first generation at the very start of deployment.
 
a_majoor said:
I have little data on the former USSR's "Galosh" BMD system, but given the lower efficiency of Soviet era electronics, I would expect it was a nuclear system like "Safeguard". The main reasons nuclear BMD is not considered an option is mostly political, no one wants more Nukes, especially nuclear armed ABMs exploding overhead. (Russia may still use Galosh, simply because they have nothing better)

The technical reasons for avoiding nuclear explosions in the upper atmosphere are still valid, as well, there are hundreds of satellites in orbit which would be knocked out by EMP, causing grave damage to the world economy.

Hit to Kill makes sense in theory, needing the smallest interceptor and causing the least collateral damage. I suspect the "real thing" may actually resemble a bucket of sand, which is guided towards the target and "burst" in front of it. The closing speed would be about Mach 40, so even a grain of sand will pack enough kinetic energy to do some serious damage. BMD is a multi-layer system, though, with US warships capable of launching interceptors against missiles in the boost stage, and follow on BMD systems designed to hunt cold warheads during mid course intercept missions, and airborn lasers mounted on 747s to track and kill boosters or cruise missiles...We are only seeing the first generation at the very start of deployment.

While the kill vehicle warhead might be   comparable to a bucket of sand (roughly 300 lbs), there is much debate as to how to get it there.   Keep in mind that we aren't dealing with short-range terminal phased flight interception, but a system that has to be capable of long-range interception at all phases of flight.   When you consider the "wobble" of incoming BM and countermeasures, the size and weight of the extratmoshpheric kill vehicle (EKV) has to increase as well.   This is a direct result of the increased need for fuel for range and needed "boost".   The latter is for course corrections needed because of the uncertain trajectory of incoming BM.   This leads me to believe that a Naval based component of the system would be very hard to achieve with standard missile magazines and cannisters due to the sheer weight of each missile.   I know that FAS is reporting that successful tests have been made for SMD, and I'd love a chance to peek at the physical data to disprove my crack-pot theories.

As for airbourne laser MD (ALMD), the theory is sound- use a high powered laser to "heat up" the missile skin causing it to loose structural integrity and break up.   Pluses include very efficient targetting and delivery of the "payload" (laser beam) to the target at light speed.   This system is even more effective when used on incoming missiles as the atmospheric attenuation decreases exponentially with each passing second increasing the efficiency of the laser.   Problems with ALMD are that it causes the missile to break up, not to be destroyed as in hit-to-kill.   The warhead and booster might still, for the most part, be intact and land in an area that they could conceivably cause damage- negating the use of the system over populated areas.

Keep in mind that all I've posted, while researched, is still just proclamations from a soap-box.   Unfortunately, the only readily available hard data on NMD are from its opponents with very little physics being offered by it's proponents to attest to its successes.   This is probably due to the sensitive nature of the material- nontheless, the engineer in me still has to yell "prove it".   If any other techy types can show me some sources to disprove some of my amateur conclusions, I'd love to see the other side of the coin...

Cheers

A link from FAS on ALMD:
http://www.fas.org/ssp/bmd/guide/airborne.htm
 
48Highlander said:
For anyone who's confused and thinks that missile defense is a new idea, you may want to take a look at this:

http://cndyorks.gn.apc.org/yspace/articles/bmd/nucleairnterceptors.htm

here's a small excert:

The Pentagon experimented with nuclear-armed interceptors in the 1950s and 1960s and, for a short time in the mid-1970s, deployed an anti-missile system that relied on them. But the notion of nuclear explosions going off high overhead to block incoming missiles proved unsettling for many people. And the prospect that ionized clouds and electromagnetic shock waves associated with the explosions could end up blinding radar on the ground and scrambling electronic equipment eventually helped kill the plan.

    Frankly, I think that at this point nuclear payload interceptors are one of the few feasable options.   They gaurantee the ability to knock down an incoming ICBM without the need for pinpoint accuracy.   Back when they were first experimented with, the palyoads neccesary were fairly large so that damage caused by the interceptor going off would still have been considerable, although still far less than the damage which would result if the incoming missile detonated instead.   However, guidance systems these days are much more accurate, meaning that the payload required may be no larger than 10 kilotons.   Very VERY low collateral damage and much more chance of success.     Anyone have any idea why both the US and USSR stopped making these?   And why they're not being considered for the newest incarnation of the BMD shield?

Not trying to be facetious, but does this classical theory of MD remind anyone of the old video game "Missile Command". You know, where your missile's detonation caused a shockwave that disable incoming enemy missiles.  I just can't shake the image of a room, deep within the caves of Cheyenne mountain, completely dark and empty except for a bunch of cables running to an old Atari 2600 with a tech thumping furiously on the red button.

Maybe, with another round of budget cuts, this might not be too far off from the truth ;)

Cheers
 
>Many posts have articulated BMD will not work, may create an arms race, and is unnecessary because
the US maintains detente with its traditional "semi-friends".

Deja moo.  "Many <objectors> have articulated <about to be developed and deployed US weapon system> will not work, may creat an arms race, etc."
 
>Missile defence is an arms race with no purpose.

Really?  You mean the the reason for BMD is "just because we think we can"?

>The U.S. is the only nation to ever use nuclear weapons

No.  The US is the only nation to ever use nuclear weapons other than during a test.  Regardless, so what?  Unless you care to expand, it made as much sense to include that as filler in your post as it does to write "Flipsy, flopsy, fiddle-de-doo."
 
3. And its Canada's to defend itself.But we'd be up shites creek without a paddle if it wasnt for the US defending us. We certainly cant defend ourselves at our present capabilities.

I would have more faith in your fellow countrymen. That being said, why doesn't the military make a political fuss for more funding?


4. I dont believe I have anything in common with the people of europe. My political views most certainly dont fall anywhere near theres. I believe that we on this continent need to look out for each other. Whether you like it or not. Ive lived in both of these countries and I have family in both. Whether you like it or not "disillusioned" you could be picked up and tossed into most states and not miss a beat. Life would be exactly the same- except people would think you were an elitist prick because you think our "way" is so much more superior.

You couldnt move to europe with such ease. I lived in Europe as well. It is a far cry from how we live over here.

That being said- I do have faith in the BMD. It needs to be advanced as with any new technology. I think we should be aiming for a "total defence" instead of just looking for what the immediate threat is. And then changing every 10 years....


I'll ignore the insult. I'm not elitist for rejecting another country's foreign policy. I also know people in the U.S., and they're nice people, but I also don't think the societiess are identica at all....
 
a_majoor said:
Yes, this is the Political section of Army.ca, and the United States has made a political decision to attempt to defend their homeland. BMD is perhaps the most visible and expensive portion of the job, but other measures such as the "USA Patriot act" and refurbishing the US Coast Guard are also happening in an attempt to counter threats from all ends of the spectrum.

We also need to make a political decision, which can be roughly stated as "Put up or Shut up". You might think of a more nuanced expression, but Canada must recognise the reality that the United States is serious about protecting their homeland, and decide to either cooperate on the best terms possible for us (moving into a continental perimeter with significant Canadian input into the decision making process), or turn our backs to their concerns, and accept consequences ranging from lessened access to the US for business and pleasure (imagine going to the US consulate 6 to 8 months in advance for a Visa so you and your family can visit Disneyland), to physical harm coming to Canada (BMD intercepts happening over Canadian territory, or US forces moving in "Hot Persuit" of fleeing terrorists into Canada).

If we decide not to go in, then it must be an informed decision, with all the potential risks and benefits laid out on the table. I have done the best risk/benefit analysis I can with open source information, and as you can see from my posts the answer I keep coming up with is "yes".


If the U.S. had the ability to shoot down a Russian or Chinese missile, so you think they would wait until Canada gave them permission to shoot it down? Do you think they would wait until it was over American terriotry if we said no? ::)
 
48Highlander said:
Whattamaroon.   Listen, I don't particularily care what the UN says about DU, there's nothing illegal about it.   Nor does it have anything to do with nuclear weapons, so please, don't put them together in the same sentence.   It only demonstrates your complete ignorance on the subject.

There is a lot of information available already. Different isotopes of uranium have exactly the same chemical and biological behaviour, which is why chemical methods cannot be used to separate them to produce enriched uranium. Therefore the chemical toxicity of DU is the same as that of natural uranium. The radiological toxicity of DU is lower than that of natural uranium, because the specific activity is lower. When uranium went into large-scale production to produce reactor fuel, the possible chemical and radiological hazards were recognised. Animal experiments were carried out to investigate them. These experiments (mostly carried out many years ago) showed that if the exposure was high enough, the most likely effect was damage to the kidneys.

Estimates of the risks associated with exposure to ionising radiation are based mainly on studies of people who were exposed to high levels of radiation. The most important study is that of the survivors of the atom bomb attacks on Japan, because this is a large group, including all ages, a wide range of doses, and the whole body was irradiated. Furthermore, the health of these survivors has been studied over several decades. However, studies on various other groups of patients and workers, and results of animal experiments, are also used in assessing radiation risks. These include internal as well as external exposures. In particular, bone cancers were seen in workers who ingested large amounts of radium while applying luminous paint to dials in the early part of the 20th century. Radium deposits in bone in a similar way to uranium, but has a far higher specific activity, and so ingestion of relatively small amounts can give high doses to bone. Using all this information, the risk of cancer from any radiation exposure (external or internal) is estimated from the amount and type of radiation each organ receives (per unit mass). Excess radiation-induced cancers cannot be seen at very low doses either in human studies or animal experiments, because the excess at low doses is small, and the same types of cancers occur naturally. For radiation protection purposes it is generally assumed that the risk of cancer is proportional to the radiation dose: if the dose is halved, the risk is halved. Some scientists believe that there is a threshold for radiation effects, partly because life evolved in a radioactive environment, and so it is reasonable to expect that at low doses the body would repair any radiation damage. NRPB, however, supports use of the assumption that all radiation doses, however small, carry some additional risk, which is proportional to dose.

An exception to the standard dosimetric approach to assessing radiation risks is made in the case of radon, a radioactive gas, which for most of the population gives rise to about half the dose from natural background radiation. A clear excess of lung cancers, which increases with increasing exposure to radon, is seen in groups of miners who were exposed to high levels of radon. Risks from radon are based on the excess lung cancers in these miners, because the comparison is more direct than the standard approach, which predicts rather more cancers than are seen in the miners, i.e. it seems to somewhat overestimate the risk in this case. Risks from radon at lower levels are again based on the assumption that the risk is proportional to the exposure.

Many thousands of workers have also been exposed to uranium compounds over many years, through the processing of uranium from the ore to the production of fuel elements. Studies have been carried out on the health of such workers. While some studies have reported excesses of cancers, unlike the miners, no clear excess of any cancer related to increased exposure has been demonstrated. The only clear finding is a 'healthy worker effect'; mortality is lower than in the general population. This is expected in such workforces, because of selection for employment, and the benefits of a regular income.

Take from that what you will.   If, after reading this, you continue to post about DU as if it were a weapon of mass murder, I'll know that your ramblings have nothing to do with ignorance and everything to do with your hate for the US.


Depleted uranium may not be a nuclear weapon, but it is quite radioactive, which doesn't exactly dissipate overnight. I wouldn't want to be a . soldier near where the stuff was used.
 
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