The War in Ukraine

[suffolkowner]

I agree that we should be watching to prevent re-exporting of meaningful goods to Russia. But it looks to me like he is playing games with statistics here - yes, the value rose by more than 100%, but $2m in imports is still basically nothing by global economic standards. $2m in goods might only fill up one or two rail cars.

The total value of Kyrgyzstan's exports is about $3 billion, and about half of that goes to Russia. Trade Profile - Kyrgyzstan - International Trade Portal.

no its much worse than that, go country by country and not just to Kyrgyzstan add the others, then look at the difference between those countries exports to Central Asia and those Central Asian countries claimed imports

 

[KevinB]

As @suffolkowner points out KStan is only part of the iceberg.

NK missiles, Iranian Drones and Russian munitions all have western parts in them.

Dual use goods need to be much more highly regulated for end usage.

 

[suffolkowner]

As @suffolkowner points out KStan is only part of the iceberg.

NK missiles, Iranian Drones and Russian munitions all have western parts in them.

Dual use goods need to be much more highly regulated for end usage.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1795020299580195214

https://twitter.com/x/status/1795022747417907583

sometimes war is good for business

on the plus side 80% of BM-21 are gone

https://twitter.com/x/status/1797009590753640953

and some artillery has suffered heavy attrition

https://twitter.com/x/status/1787809716690640955

 

[Rudburg]

As @suffolkowner points out KStan is only part of the iceberg.

NK missiles, Iranian Drones and Russian munitions all have western parts in them.

Dual use goods need to be much more highly regulated for end usage.

No disagreement here.

 

[Skysix]

Can't wait to hear their excuse when they 'accidentally' cut the Fibre-optic lines on the bottom of a sea or ocean.

One does not do such thighs accidentally...it's almost impossible really.


And I totally agree with you. It's the west's collective lack of vision, lack of initiative, and lack of long term planning that have left us feeling the consequences of our leaders gone arrogant and incompetent (my opinion) - but the lack of will is evident & important

I fundamentally disagree with your basic premise, we have no LEADERS, only poll following managers. The western heads of state with the most demonstrated leadership (and their countries behind them) are Kaja Kallas of Estonia and Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine.

 

[Skysix]

As @suffolkowner points out KStan is only part of the iceberg.

NK missiles, Iranian Drones and Russian munitions all have western parts in them.

Dual use goods need to be much more highly regulated for end usage.

What about Russian oil STILL being pipelined through Ukraine? Or the shadow tanker fleet?

I agree with whoever said that Ukraine should use some of their maritime drones to sink these tankers as they arrive in port but before loading.

 

[RangerRay]

The most frustrating to me, is we have clear evidence of the Russians conducting hostile actions against NATO countries and we keep trying to downplay it - as well as Chinese vessels attempting to ‘accidentally’ cut transatlantic and Baltic communication lines on the seabed.

Actually I’m impressed with how clear-eyed and open countries like Sweden, Finland, the Baltics, Poland, the UK and even France has been with their populations with regards to the inevitability of war with Russia if current trends continue. Canada seems to be still trying to act like it’s 2015.

 

[OldSolduer]

Actually I’m impressed with how clear-eyed and open countries like Sweden, Finland, the Baltics, Poland, the UK and even France has been with their populations with regards to the inevitability of war with Russia if current trends continue. Canada seems to be still trying to act like it’s 2015.

Most Canadians won't care and will only care when their favorite imported stuff can't be imported because...war. Again, this nation is unprepared and led by donkeys - sorry - donkeys are useful and can be quite stubborn. My apologies to the donkeys.

 

[Skysix]

Ballsy driver and a vehicle that works as adverised.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1796952979745968632

 

[CBH99]

I fundamentally disagree with your basic premise, we have no LEADERS, only poll following managers. The western heads of state with the most demonstrated leadership (and their countries behind them) are Kaja Kallas of Estonia and Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine.

I would strongly argue for Andrzej Duda of Poland to be added to that list.

He has demonstrated a firm commitment to be a solid NATO member and quite possibly putting Poland in a position to be the future leader of the EU - all while resisting the pressure from the current EU to become more woke & accommodating by taking in millions of random refugees they don't have accommodations for.

I think Duda should be on that list


As for everybody else, I agree. It's truly become a 'click' of western politicians enjoying their lives of relative luxury they've inherited from the generation previous to them.

They don't just fall short in terms of showing leadership when solving problems - a big chunk of our problems come from them not showing any bloody leadership in the first place!

Managers is a far better description of most modern Western world 'leaders' - calling them leaders is just plain inaccurate

 

[CBH99]

.

 

[CBH99]

Most Canadians won't care and will only care when their favorite imported stuff can't be imported because...war. Again, this nation is unprepared and led by donkeys - sorry - donkeys are useful and can be quite stubborn. My apologies to the donkeys.

There's an extremely relevant joke in there about being led by asses, but it's 6:20am and I just got home from work...brain is done...

 

[Rudburg]

There's an extremely relevant joke in there about being led by asses, but it's 6:20am and I just got home from work...brain is done...

 

[The Bread Guy]

First segment of this BBC podcast has a discussion with the BBC Monitoring media tracking lead on tracking OS info on how many Russians have been killed in the non-war in UKR. Interesting talk re: how they root out nuggets of info here and there. No spoiler for their estimates

The Fifth Floor - Russia's lost troops - BBC Sounds

Olga Ivshina on the human cost of Russia’s war in Ukraine

www.bbc.co.uk

More on the person being interviewed.

Dr Olga Ivshina

Royal United Services Institute

rusi.org

(Interesting note: BBC Monitoring apparently has an agreement of some sort to provide OS analysis on request to the UK government.)

 

[GR66]

An interesting read from the Wavell Room on the fall of Avdiivka:

Avdiivka Falls - The Battle for the Durna river line

The Battle for the Durna river line took place over 29 April- 5 May 2024. Why did the Russian Army succeed in capturing Avdiivka?

wavellroom.com

A couple of things from the article that jumped out at me:

The end came when Russian forces infiltrated the south of the city using a concealed passage offered by a man-sized water pipe feeding Donetsk filter station.

This highlights to me the importance of subterranean training (and specialized equipment) as urban conflict will almost certainly be a major factor as the battlefield becomes more "transparent".

With the exception of the battalion-level attack at the beginning, Russian attacks are typically platoon strength involving 1-2 tanks and as many as four AFV's

Ukrainian counter-attacks typically involve a single tank or AFV.

Artillery and rocket fire on the Russian side involves single guns or launchers that fire one salvo then scoot. Ukrainian indirect fire has been minimal due to 'shell starvation'. FPV and Mavic-style drones rule the battlefield and both sides go to great lengths to conceal themselves, in the case of vehicles, guns and rocket launchers; or to remain underground if infantry. Camouflage is insufficient. The only true protection is total concealment. Saturated ECM has also become a prerequisite for survival.

More examples of persistent surveillance of the battlefield has changed the nature of this war.

On 29 March, 6th Tank Regiment (90th Tank Division) mounted a battalion-sized attack supported by the militia 428th Motor Rifle Regiment. As many as 36 tanks and 12 APC's were committed, the largest grouping seen since October 2023. The assaulting force launched from Tonenke. The aim seems to have been to force the Duma at Umankse where the river narrows to a shallow or dry stream. The attack was conducted in daylight (due to lack of night vision capability) across open ground. The assaulting force followed a road. The Russians remain unable to coordinate an all-arms assault (with engineers, artillery, aviation or air) due to the lack of a working VHF tactical net. The likelihood was the vehicles were communicating on walkie-talkies. 'Follow the leader' is the default tactic. Destruction of the lead tank quickly leads to the attack breaking up. This is what happened.

Highlights the importance of night vision gear and secure comms that can operate in an intense EW environment in being able to conduct successful combined arms attacks.

As many as 25-30 glide bomb attacks were recorded every day against Ukrainian positions, also under daily fire from artillery and rocket systems. Ground attacks were also daily occurrences.

Related details from a recent BBC article:

Russia is increasingly using "glide bombs" - cheap but highly destructive ordnance - to advance its offensive in Ukraine. More than 200 of them are thought to have been used in just a week to pound Ukraine's northern town of Vovchansk during Russia's current cross-border advance near Kharkiv. President Volodymyr Zelensky said 3,000 such bombs were dropped on the country in March alone.

Glide bombs - most commonly used being the 1.5 tonne FAB-1500 - are a cheap and plentiful weapon in the Russian arsenal. They are able to cause massive damage to even well fortified positions and are reportedly having a significant impact on Ukrainian defensive positions and morale. Countering these long-range attacks really requires the US to lift limitations on use of long-range weapons against targets in Russia. The airfields and jets used to launch these glide bombs need to be taken out.

On 17 April, Ukrainian forces suffered a major setback. As a consequence of a poorly executed rotation, Russian troops were able to advance 3.5 kilometers to Ocheretyne following the line of the railway. The Russians appeared to be as surprised as the Ukrainians. The implications were serious. The Duma river line had been outflanked in the north, imperilling units further south.

In the immediate aftermath, 115th Mechanized Brigade was blamed. However, the events remain surrounded with controversy. Poor coordination between three units in the area, reporting to different higher commands, may have been a factor...The rail line may have acted as an inter-unit boundary that no unit properly covered.

The Russians quickly reinforced the success. Elements from as many as six brigades entered the salient like a rush of air filling a vacuum

Faced with the threat of being outflanked and surrounded, Ukrainian forces had little choice but to withdraw from Berdychi and Semenivka to new defensive lines....Thus, in just over a week, Ukrainian defensive position anchoring the northern sector of the Duma River had collapsed. Within two weeks, seven settlements had been surrendered.

Nevertheless, Ukrainian forces had been exposed. The lack of a divisional level of command is a particular weakness. Brigades fight their own battles. A weak or uncooperative formation...can undermine the defence line. This has been an unfortunate feature of the Ukrainian Army since 2014. Brittle morale may also be playing a role.

These all reflect on the need for highly coordinated operations at the Divisional (and above) level. They also show that while the "transparent" battlefield seems to lead to an attritional-style of warfare with advances measured by meters, there are opportunities for greater movement of the front possible. Is that because the level of transparency we're seeing from FPV's, etc. is much easier to implement on a static front? Once the front starts moving with any speed are these capabilities lost due to inability to operate on the move?

The author's Concluding thoughts don't paint a pretty picture for the Ukrainians in the long term:

The war ginds on. The basic Russian tactic has not varied in months. What are essentially forlorn hope parties (squad-sized suicide units) rush the Ukrainian defence line with the aim of grabbing a treeline, building, or other defensible feature. Documents found on some dead by 47th Mechanized Brigade show the soldiers had only been mobilized eight days previously. Survivors entrench and wait for reinforcement. Gradually this 'grey zone' is expanded and consolidated as more infantry are infiltrated to the newly-secured positions. Daily pounding by glide bombs, rockets and artillery wear down and demoralize defenders. So the front line advances, by field lengths and by streets, over weeks. The cost in lives and material is heavy but the Russians are heedless of both.

Ukrainian tactics are also unchanged. Formations grimly defend blasted settlements, using basements as shelters, and do their best to repulse Russian attacks with drones, artillery, and mines. One weak unit can compromise a defensive line. The temptation to retreat is always present. Once Russian troops secure a toehold in a settlement, Ukrainian withdrawal is not long in coming. A war cannot be won defensively ceding ground. Retreat can become rout. Ukrainians must find the will, belief and troops to attack.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Great highlights @GR66 - thanks.

This stands out as being very "defaulting to USSR Mode"

... The Russians remain unable to coordinate an all-arms assault (with engineers, artillery, aviation or air) due to the lack of a working VHF tactical net. The likelihood was the vehicles were communicating on walkie-talkies. 'Follow the leader' is the default tactic. Destruction of the lead tank quickly leads to the attack breaking up. This is what happened ...

 

[KevinB]

For those counting casualties

https://twitter.com/x/status/1796966286850658676

 

[KevinB]

and more

https://twitter.com/x/status/1797287482276352325

 

[KevinB]

George Clooney takes issues with Russian War Supporters holidaying in Europe

https://twitter.com/x/status/1796938081188102626

 

[KevinB]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1796998318624481346