The War in Ukraine

[Kirkhill]

A few OSINT sources are now wondering if the Russian storage bases might have run out of salvageable T72s.

Not ideal, but even older tanks can still be useful if they are used in a limited role. I seem to recall that the Israelis still have some Centurion variants and derivatives in service (but not as MBTs). Using older and potentially obsolescent equipment has always been part of Soviet/Russian planning. The Russians probably see T54s and T55s as potentially still useful in an infantry support role, as 100mm HE and the coax MG will still be effective at killing dismounts or unarmored targets.

That said, it's still a very limited platform. It would be extremely vulnerable to any modern AT system and wouldn't stand much chance in a tank-on-tank fight. Due to the age, keeping it running would also be a problem for the maintainers.

On an open field it doesn't really matter if it is a T54, T72 or an Abrams. They all move at about the same pace and are all equally visible from the sky. Particularly with TI.

There is a reason that 7728 tanks of all generations have been eliminated. Yanking T54s into the front line does not suggest a healthy supply of modern vehicles.

267 tanks per month eliminated since Feb 2022.

....

And apparently the ability to produce guns and shells is no better.

 

[Kirkhill]

As we have seen in this war, quality of training is a secondary factor to getting barrels pointed in the right direction. When you don't care about the number of casualties you don't have to care about your point. Not that you're wrong, just think of it from the Russian point.

If your enemy insists on running onto your guns then you just need to dig in and keep the canister coming.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

I'm skeptical of the claims made in that article. 1500 tanks a year would be a massive increase over post-Soviet production, which peaked around 200 in 2008. What Is Missing From This Russian Tank Factory Promo Video? Tanks

You haven't been paying attention:

‘A lot higher than we expected’: Russian arms production worries Europe’s war planners

Moscow has massively ramped up its industry, giving it advantages in Ukraine and leading to a redistribution of wealth

www.theguardian.com

 

[Rudburg]

You haven't been paying attention:

‘A lot higher than we expected’: Russian arms production worries Europe’s war planners

Moscow has massively ramped up its industry, giving it advantages in Ukraine and leading to a redistribution of wealth

www.theguardian.com

AFVs "reactivated from storage" isn't the same thing as new tank builds. The other article I was criticizing had claimed 1500 new T90s a year, which is almost certainly bullshit. Nobody doubts that the storage bases are being emptied out.

 

[The Bread Guy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1796266105457246662

Bit more detail on that ...

Ukraine Gets U.S. OK To Hit Targets Inside Russia. Now What?

Ukraine got the green light from Washington, and more than a dozen NATO allies, to start using Western weaponry on some targets inside Russia. Is it a game changer?

www.rferl.org

Ukraine Can Strike (Some) Targets in Russia with U.S. Weapons. What Now? - The Moscow Times

The United States on Thursday finally joined a growing number of its NATO allies in allowing Ukraine to use weapons donated by the West to strike military targets on Russian territory.

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

AFVs "reactivated from storage" isn't the same thing as new tank builds. The other article I was criticizing had claimed 1500 new T90s a year, which is almost certainly bullshit. Nobody doubts that the storage bases are being emptied out.

Russia has problems, resources and weapons are not one of them. they've retooled many factories and they were preparing for this years before the war began.

It's the way their system is designed. It's crude and not very economically efficient but it works in times of war.

The storage bases gave the Russians time to bring their excess capacity online and upgrade the workforce, they are outproducing all of NATO by in almost every single class of weapon system, in somw cases by Multiples of 3 to 4. They've also got powerful allies who are supporting this endeavour.

Another video, probably the least biased video you will see on this:

The worst part is the Russians got all of this new capacity from us. They essentially tricked Europe in to retooling their war machine. A great little synopsis on this:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1792176953769746585

They did it right under our noses, just before they invaded. 2008 was ALONG time ago and much has changed since then.

 

[calculus]

Not a ringing endorsement on the performance in real battlefield conditions of some of the most vaunted Western weapons systems. Especially interesting for Canada is the takeaway that the M777 is too delicate, and burns through barrels.

Ukraine War rips veil off of US weapons superiority

Many of the failures, including the HIMARS, have been due to their reliance on GPS

responsiblestatecraft.org

 

[Rudburg]

Russia has problems, resources and weapons are not one of them

They had plenty in storage, but they are burning through those stocks at a surprising rate.

they've retooled many factories and they were preparing for this years before the war began.

That's not accurate. The Russians did almost nothing to prepare for the war, either economically or even militarily. There is a reason why the initial invasion failed so spectacularly - they seem to have assumed that they could execute an Afghanistan-style coup (the Hostomel air assault was a key part of this). It's only in the last six to twelve months that they have started expanding their industrial base, and they have had more success with this in some areas than others.

It's the way their system is designed. It's crude and not very economically efficient but it works in times of war.

I have hinted at this elsewhere, but in my view Russia's problems in the early phases of the war relate to the fact it was neither a professional army nor a mass conscript army. Had they not ditched their Soviet-style mobilization plans and capabilities, they might have been better placed to handle early failures. The storage bases (which are now useful only as a source of vehicle replacements) used to be Cadre divisions with commanders and staff in place. On mobilization, they would have received enough conscripts to fill out the divisional structure.

The storage bases gave the Russians time to bring their excess capacity online and upgrade the workforce, they are outproducing all of NATO by in almost every single class of weapon system, in somw cases by Multiples of 3 to 4.

I don't believe those figures. The Russians are openly lying about their total production. If anything, they are probably not making good on combat losses.

How did Russian defence industry perform in 2023?

How has Russia's defence industry responded to the war in Ukraine? Can they keep up product to sustain the war effort? No.

wavellroom.com

 

[KevinB]

@Humphrey Bogart you don’t even need a clearance at this point to know Russia is full of shit.

Their economy is in tatters, and they have burned through decades of stored equipment— commercially available satellite imagery shows the devastation that is occurring in Russia.

Yes they have leveled areas of Ukraine and the Ukraines have taken vastly more casualties than they care to admit - but the Russians are in low double digits for annual new tank production, and still rely on NK and Iran for a lot of their munitions - they cannot replace damaged components from Ukrainian strikes.

Sure they are still dangerous - and Ukraine hangs on simply from their own determination and Western military aid. But the claim Russia is growing their military is a farce. They have manpower and that is really about it that they can generate.

 

[KevinB]

That is a terrible article with so many holes one could drive a truck through.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

That's not accurate. The Russians did almost nothing to prepare for the war, either economically or even militarily.

There isn't even a point in discussing this with you then I guess, if that’s what you believe.

The Russians actually began preparations over a decade+ ago for this eventuality. It really picked up steam circa 2014 when they annexed Crimea.

See:

SPFS - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Mir (payment system) - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Russian Rearmament: Putin’s Key Priorities

While the Russian economy continues to suffer under Western sanctions, Moscow continues to invest heavily in upgrading its military capabilities

www.rusi.org

Russian Rearmament: Putin’s Key Priorities

While the Russian economy continues to suffer under Western sanctions, Moscow continues to invest heavily in upgrading its military capabilities

www.rusi.org

https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/03/why-russia-has-been-so-resilient-to-western-export-controls?lang=en

We should be recapitalizing our own Industrial capacity but we have not really done so. The only ones really doing anything are the Americans and the pace has been anemic.

 

[Rudburg]

There isn't even a point in discussing this with you then I guess, if that’s what you believe.

I don't disagree that Russia is trying to increase its defence output. I just don't think they are doing half of what they claim - they lie, then exaggerate, and then lie again. It's worth remembering that Russia's total GDP is smaller than Canada's. Even if they were spending a WW2-style share of it on the military, it would only go so far.

We should be recapitalizing our own Industrial capacity but we have not really done so. The only ones really doing anything are the Americans and the pace has been anemic.

I don't disagree with that at all. Canada has a history of sleepwalking into war, and I worry that we might be doing it again.

 

[FSTO]

I don't disagree with that at all. Canada has a history of sleepwalking into war, and I worry that we might be are doing it again.

Fixed it.

 

[suffolkowner]

I dont think theres any sign that NATO overall has bought into the idea that Russia represents some sort of existential threat. Witness the response from the western member including the 6 month break from the US when Serbia provided more aid. Or how about Spain, Italy and the tough talking France, their aid numbers are pathetic and embarrassing (perhaps their aid has just gone unpublished?) The UK which started strong has been relatively quite since and then there is Canada. The alliance as a whole couldnt even come together to purchase a couple million artillery rounds, which only cost money and not dipping into stocks or investing in industrial capacity.

As far as industrial capacity with respect to this war, there have been a few improvements but generally it is a munitions issue. NATO has not touched in any real way its stocks of MBT/IFV/APC/logistic trucks/Helicopters/fighter jets

In the end for all the rhetoric we seem more than happy to let Ukraine bleed Russia dry as the low cost solution. It may even make sense if not morally.

 

[YZT580]

That is a terrible article with so many holes one could drive a truck through.

perhaps so but within the errors are a number of serious issues to take home and correct. Your task is to separate the gold from the dross and adapt accordingly without trying to shoot the messenger

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

@Humphrey Bogart you don’t even need a clearance at this point to know Russia is full of shit.

Their economy is in tatters, and they have burned through decades of stored equipment— commercially available satellite imagery shows the devastation that is occurring in Russia.

Yes they have leveled areas of Ukraine and the Ukraines have taken vastly more casualties than they care to admit - but the Russians are in low double digits for annual new tank production, and still rely on NK and Iran for a lot of their munitions - they cannot replace damaged components from Ukrainian strikes.

Sure they are still dangerous - and Ukraine hangs on simply from their own determination and Western military aid. But the claim Russia is growing their military is a farce. They have manpower and that is really about it that they can generate.

Hyperbole with no evidence. They must have stolen a lot of washing machines to keep up their strategic bombardment campaign through 2+ years of warfare

I've reiterated throughout the past 2+ years that we need a shift in our mentality. Our leadership is arrogant, egotistical and foolish. There is an Axis of Countries that has now grown strong enough to challenge our so called "Rules Based International Order" and they know it. The worst part is that if a larger war were to break out, our leaders would have no support and there is a very big chance we would lose the war.

There are many ongoing events in the World right now, which I believe are inter-related. I think China is planning to conquer Taiwan and I think it will happen soon. They are clearly rehearsing it and conducting tests for this very purpose. Than there is the ongoing war in Gaza which people on this site would be over in a fortnite, has shown no signs of resolution and which I believe Israel is currently losing.

We won't even speak about the ongoing crisis in the Red Sea which the US Navy has shown themselves to be utterly incapable of keeping a vital SLOC open. That was a pretty good signal to the Chinese that they shouldn't fear US Naval Power.

I would like to see the West pivot the economy and make significant investments in infrastructure and the means of production. We should be retooling our economy for war but we are too busy dealing with social issues.

 

[brihard]

We won't even speak about the ongoing crisis in the Red Sea which the US Navy has shown themselves to be utterly incapable of keeping a vital SLOC open. That was a pretty good signal to the Chinese that they shouldn't fear US Naval Power.

This is definitely a big red flag, and I think I remember saying earlier that the Houthis don’t need to utterly interdict the strait, but just make shipping there uninsurable.

Coupled with how dismal the U.S. has shown its ability to put logistics ashore to be (see Gaza pier/JLOTS), and there are very real concerns about some aspects of America’s ability to project naval force.

Now, nobody comes close to challenging them in blue water naval affairs… And that’s great for the Atlantic and Pacific moats. Not sure what it means for credible deterrence in the Taiwanese littoral, though.

Flip side, Ukraine has shown how hideously the balance has shifted to defensive firepower. Hopefully the Taiwanese have taken these lessons to heart and are ready to smother a Chinese amphibious force with drone swarms and other higher end munitions- and to swat down a massive airmobile assault aimed at facilitating that first beachhead.

When China decides it’s go time, what will really matter will only be what the U.S. can bring to the first within the first two or three days. The success of a beachhead will be conclusively determined in that window; neither side will get a mulligan.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

I dont think theres any sign that NATO overall has bought into the idea that Russia represents some sort of existential threat. Witness the response from the western member including the 6 month break from the US when Serbia provided more aid. Or how about Spain, Italy and the tough talking France, their aid numbers are pathetic and embarrassing (perhaps their aid has just gone unpublished?) The UK which started strong has been relatively quite since and then there is Canada. The alliance as a whole couldnt even come together to purchase a couple million artillery rounds, which only cost money and not dipping into stocks or investing in industrial capacity.

As far as industrial capacity with respect to this war, there have been a few improvements but generally it is a munitions issue. NATO has not touched in any real way its stocks of MBT/IFV/APC/logistic trucks/Helicopters/fighter jets

In the end for all the rhetoric we seem more than happy to let Ukraine bleed Russia dry as the low cost solution. It may even make sense if not morally.

I think an apt comparison to what is going on now is similar to what occurred pre-1939 during the inter-war period.

Russia is basically Fascist Italy redux -> They've got an imperialist leader with designs on a larger empire and wish to expand their sphere of influence. The Italians actually began fighting in the early 30s when they conquered Abyssinia and then Albania. They supported Fascist Spain and had further designs on the Balkans and North Africa.

China is Nazi Germany - The Chinese aren't fighting but they are overtly supporting their aligned Allies everywhere, while also building their combat power for the moment when they can strike.

The real unknown variable is Nuclear Weapons.

 

[KevinB]

perhaps so but within the errors are a number of serious issues to take home and correct. Your task is to separate the gold from the dross and adapt accordingly without trying to shoot the messenger

Without delving into classified info, I can’t give a good breakdown of why that article is utter tripe.

Sticking to some OS only topics:

The 777 is an airborne/airmobile gun. Ideally we would have sent the old 198’s, as we have thousands in storage - and while much heavier if you’re not moving much, it’s a solid gun. We move the 777 with Hummers (and now JLTV’s) when not slinging or dropping them, the weight savings comes at a cost - there is a lot of Titanium in it, and that’s not a cheap material, nor does some of its properties help for a howitzer frame.
It’s barrel life is fairly standard for a 155mm, the issue is do to numbers of guns the Ukrainians are generally having to fire a lot more rounds in a shorter period of time than ideal - so all their Arty is wearing out faster than anticipated (heat kills). A barrel that has say a 5k life span at a given rate will deteriorate faster when shot at a faster firing schedule as the heat retained in the barrel is not being dissipated like it would be if fired at a slower rate.

There are 3 types of Switchblades being used in Ukraine, the light one is fairly ineffective against armor - and that isn’t a surprise to anyone as it was designed to target soft vehicles or other unarmored targets.

Russia has been GPS jamming areas of Europe for over a decade now. There are ways around that - but keep in mind the majority of munitions supplied to Ukraine have been old stock - that doesn’t have counter GPS Defeat tech, and we are fairly tight on controls with that technology anyway.
So Ukraine has to play rock paper scissors and conduct counter EW missions - which NATO would primary do with air power, or use munitions with INS in them as well which isn’t as accurate as GPS combined with INS.

The GLSDB like the GMLRS has anti GPS spoofing via INS . But it’s a got 35lbs of explosives, and the bomb that tends to sink in the mud depending on season or when used in air burst mode, the lethal radius isn’t much either — I don’t think anyone who knows much about munitions expected it to be an overwhelming success/game changer. It was simply an extended range option compared to the older MRLS/HIMAR munitions provided. By far the most effective systems for HIMARS and MLRS have been the cluster submunitions, then the pre-fragmented tungsten.


The Abrams, well, no Abram’s crews where lost in the 7 lost tanks - the Russians have been targeting the blowout panels in the turret of most western tanks with their OWUAS systems - when you see what the Russians threw at those tanks, I don’t think the losses where unexpected, and on a cost benefit basis, I think the Russians spent a lot of time and money that they can’t recoup trying to get those tanks.

That’s pretty much the end of the OS takes from what I can see — but I think the author is a moron.

 

[CBH99]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1796598347861495950

There aren't enough Angry Faces in existence to express my feelings towards her captors, and whoever it was at both the Red Cross and UN for leading this poor girl straight into the monster's lair.

And also at whoever the monsters were. The moment a scared young woman was 'delivered to them', every effort should have been made immediately to allow her to contact her family & arrangements made to get her home to her family.

It doesn't matter the rank or the position, surely even a clump of dirt ought to have realized that no strategic or tactical effect was being rendered by keeping a young woman in captivity and subjecting her to cruel physical & emotional (and I can't help but assume sexual) torture for 2 freaking years...


May anybody involved her what happened to her burn in hell.