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The War in Ukraine

Kevin - my concern is that I truly believe Putin is fully aware of the fact that there is now no possible scenario where he backs off and survives. Prior to this war he had systematically pillaged the Russian coffers to pad his own bank accounts. Had he left power peacefully then, a full audit would have seen him shot and dumped in a bog. Now, he has started a fruitless war that has left tens of thousands of Russians dead, and probably hundreds of thousands wounded/disabled. The economy and the military will take decades to recover. He is effectively painted into a corner now.

The 'so what' of this is the fact that desperate people can and will resort to desperate measures. For a country that was once a nuclear and conventional superpower, and seeks to regain that status, this is a dangerous time indeed.
The russian economy is now dependent on war, its GDP growth is because of the defense industry only, if the war ends tomorrow, demobilization and the end of state weapons orders could fully collapse the economy. Putin now needs war in order to prevent the collapse of Russia, which is also why there is no way he would stop at just Ukraine.
 
Continued war is not the only path out of this predicament for Russia. I'm sure there can be economic incentives on the table.
 
The russian economy is now dependent on war, its GDP growth is because of the defense industry only, if the war ends tomorrow, demobilization and the end of state weapons orders could fully collapse the economy. Putin now needs war in order to prevent the collapse of Russia, which is also why there is no way he would stop at just Ukraine.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...conomy-trump-mulls-more-sanctions-2025-01-23/

2025 isn’t looking good for Russia.
 
The russian economy is now dependent on war, its GDP growth is because of the defense industry only, if the war ends tomorrow, demobilization and the end of state weapons orders could fully collapse the economy. Putin now needs war in order to prevent the collapse of Russia, which is also why there is no way he would stop at just Ukraine.
He could pull back the troops to 2022 line, dig in and hold, demanding the Ukrainians leave Kursk. Trump could force Ukraine to accept that ceasefire. Putin then keeps the army intact and the war economy going to rearm, slowly releasing troops and slowing equipment/ammunition orders for a steady economic transition.
 
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